Watch The World Series With Edgar
Friend of the blog Pete Livengood passed this along, and it sounds like a cool opportunity.
World Series Viewing Event, Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Bring friends and family to watch World Series Game One at Elysian Fields Stadium District Brewpub in Seattle! ALL AGES WELCOME!
Special Appearance by Edgar Martinez!
Wednesday, October 27, 2010*Elysian Fields Stadium District
542 – 1st Ave. S. Seattle, WAWorld Series Game One begins at 4:30pm
No Tickets Necessary: Show up anytime that evening, and have fun! Elysian Brewing Company will donate a portion of proceeds from the evening’s food and drink sales to The Martinez Foundation.
Autograph Session with Edgar, 6-7pm:
Edgar Martinez will sign autographs for a $25 donation to The Martinez Foundation.
Authentic MLB baseball and display cube available for additional $20 purchase.
100% of autograph fees will be donated to The Martinez Foundation.Throughout October and November, Elysian Brewing Comp;any will donate $1 for every purchase of Edgar Martinez’s Mezcal import, El Zacatecano, to the Martinez foundation.
I’ve eaten at the Elysian a few times, and I’ve always had a good time. My drinking friends are fans of their beers as well. Check it out.
Rookie Pitchers
I’m working on a piece on what to expect from Michael Pineda next year, but it started to get overly long, and so I’ve decided to break it up a little bit. Today, we’ll just look at some data on how starting pitchers have performed in their first year in the majors over the last decade. From 2000 to 2010, there have been 148 starting pitchers who have thrown 50 or more innings in their first year in the big leagues. The results vary, as you would expect, but you may be surprised at how they’ve done overall. Here’s the median performance for the group.
20 GS, 112 IP, 115 H, 60 R, 42 BB, 77 K, 14 HR, 4.59 ERA, .267/.335/.436 opponents line
That’s almost exactly an average line for a pitcher over the last 10 years. That’s 3.37 BB/9, 6.18 K/9, and 1.1 HR/9, if you’re used to single game rates. Perhaps that performance will be a bit of a surprise to you if you’re used to the narrative that you can’t trust young pitchers, but in reality, there are nearly as many successes as failures in the group.
Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Aaron Heilman, Rick Vanden Hurk, and Charlie Morton failed spectacularly in their first trip through the big leagues, but on the other end of the spectrum, there’s Zach Duke, Barry Zito, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, and Brandon Webb. In fact, if you begin to restrict the list to guys who were considered high quality pitching prospects, you get an even more optimistic view about the potential results for talented rookie arms.
Jered Weaver, Barry Zito, Brandon Webb, Felix Hernandez, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad, Tommy Hanson, Stephen Strasburg, Dontrelle Willis, Mark Prior, Yovanni Gallardo, John Lackey, Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, and Rick Porcello all posted an ERA under 4.00 in their first year in the big leagues, living up to the hype right off the bat in each case.
The list of guys who got bombed as rookies, and were highly thought of coming up through the minors, is much shorter. There’s Matt Garza, Jeremy Bonderman, Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Chris Tillman, John Danks, and Mark Mulder, but that’s about it. Most of the guys who really got torched were considered mediocre prospects before they even got to the big leagues. And, as you probably noticed, most of these guys turned out just fine eventually, even if they didn’t have a great first season.
There’s a stigma that comes with rookie pitchers, as if they are some kind of disaster waiting to happen. The reality is much different. Good pitchers are good pitchers, and experience is not as big a deal as is generally assumed.
The one area where you can temper your expectations significantly is in quantity of innings. Of the 148 pitchers on the list, only one threw 200 innings in his first year in the big leagues, and that was Daisuke Matsuzaka, not your typical youngster. Excluding him, only Greg Smith was able to top 190 innings, and just five more were able to break the 180 innings barrier. When we estimate innings pitched for Pineda, we’re going to have to be pretty conservative. He’s almost certainly not going to be allowed to throw a full year’s worth of starts, no matter how well he pitches.
However, when it comes to how he’ll pitch, history suggests some optimism.
Odds and Ends (10/20/10)
Various minor newsbits are filtering out, none of which are worth a separate post. Consider this a catch-all for the past few days.
• Wedge was introduced yesterday, now sporting a handsome mustache, but no bolo tie to complete the ensemble. Larry Stone has started a celebrity look-alike contest which presently features Stacy Keach, Captain Leland Stottlemeyer, recent Bradley Whitford, Ron Swanson, and Ron Burgundy, but surprisingly, no Wyatt Earp (an earlier popular suggestion) or Daniel Plainview.
• Actual news from the conference ran about in the expected manner. Milton Bradley says “I’m over it,” Wedge says “I don’t hold any grudges,”, and adds that he’ll reach out to Milton and others in the coming days. Carl Willis is likely to provide some continuity at the pitching coach position, though nothing is yet certain. Wedge came off as intense and organized; the kind of guy who won’t stand for mental errors. These statements mean things.
• Felix Hernandez was named Sporting News’ AL Pitcher of the Year. It’s not the Cy Young, but could be a precursor to it.
• If you didn’t have enough indications recently that we’re going to be stuck in the mid-90s for at least another few years, the Mariners are bringing back the “Northwest Green” (read as: teal) alternates, used earlier this year on a Turn Back the Clock Night. Ichiro can be seen rocking the teal uni here. No word on possible returns of teal caps or Turn Ahead the Clock black and pink. Ichiro’s sentiments on those are presently unknown. Felix will be wearing the jersey when Wedge does his Q & A though.
• You’re not getting through a post by me without some prospecting news. On that note, Ackley is still out, but should be back any day now. Nate Tenbrink is playing third base again for Peoria after working out mostly in the outfield for West Tenn. Matt Lawson is at short a lot of the time. All the pitchers are making progress, measurable or not, but of particular note is Tom Wilhelmsen recording eight strikeouts in four innings. Down in Venezuela, there’s not much worth talking about yet, but to be clear about one issue, Robles is relieving, but not being viewed as a reliever.
Quick Reaction To Eric Wedge’s Hiring
I’m traveling through Wednesday, so I don’t have as much time to write as I will towards the end of the week. I don’t want to rush through a post on Eric Wedge just to have something up, but I figured I could sketch out an outline of my thoughts, and then expand on them later. Consider this a Cliff’s Notes version of my feelings on the hiring.
We probably should have seen this coming. Of the five candidates they interviewed, he’s the one who makes the most sense. He got his managing chops in Cleveland, a similarly minded front office, and has experience in dealing with GMs who aren’t putting together traditional rosters. There were problems between the field staff and the front office this year, and I have no doubt that Jack was looking for someone who would be more willing to work with them on things they wanted to accomplish. He might not be a stats guy himself, but knowing how to work with an organization that uses sabermetric thinking was one of the things that Wedge offered that none of the other candidates did.
Also, with Carl Willis finishing the season as the pitching coach, Wedge’s hiring likely provides some continuity at the most important position on the coaching staff. Willis and Wedge worked together in Cleveland, and all signs point to him sticking around in that role. Given the issues they had with Brandon League’s pitch selection this year, I would imagine that having a pitching coach that is on board with the organization’s philosophy is a big priority. Hiring Wedge meant that they didn’t have to give him carte blanch to bring in a pitching coach that they weren’t familiar with, and that had to be a point in his favor.
As for whether this is a good or bad hire, I maintain my position that we have no idea how to evaluate managers, and so much of whether one is good or bad depends on the context of the situation. If Wedge works well with Jack and gets along with this specific group of players, then it was probably a good hire. How would we even begin to know whether that will be the case? I have no clue. We can look back at Wedge’s time in Cleveland and make some guesses about his on-field strategies, but those are a minimal part of a managers job, and they don’t really matter all that much. As long as he doesn’t ask Felix to throw 120 pitches per start or hit Jack Wilson lead-off, his moves won’t matter all that much. What will matter is getting the guys to respect him, and we don’t have any idea whether that will happen or not. Any opinion about his personality and how it will fit here is just a wild guess.
The most interesting question at the press conference, whenever that turns out to be, will almost certainly be about Milton Bradley. His time in Cleveland ended badly when he and Wedge ceased to be able to coexist in 2004. The breaking point was Wedge pulling Bradley from a spring training game for not hustling, but that was hardly the only time they butted heads. You’ve almost certainly heard the infamous story by now, but there are reports that Bradley wore a t-shirt in the clubhouse that read F— Eric Wedge. Maybe Wedge is the most forgiving person ever and the new and improved Milton Bradley is willing to give that relationship another chance, but, I wouldn’t bet on it. Wedge’s hiring almost certainly increases the chances that the M’s just cut Milton loose this winter. Maybe they would have been willing to take a shot at getting some production out of him with another fresh start, but Wedge does not qualify as a fresh start for Bradley.
Overall, I mostly defer to the M’s on this one. They know more about what kind of guy they want to work with than I do.
Eric Wedge To Be Mariners Manager
And just like that, the pieces have fallen into place. Jon Heyman says that the Mariners have settled on Eric Wedge to be their next manager. They won’t be able to officially announce it until they get clearance from the commissioner’s office, given that the ALCS starts tonight, but I’d expect them to get some kind of okay in the next few days. Expect a press conference next week.
M’s May Have A Manager – It’s Not Valentine
Larry Stone has the story on his blog. Bobby Valentine has been told he will not get the Mariners job, and rumors are swirling that the team may have already made their decision. If that is true, then the choice will come from the group that interviewed this week – Eric Wedge, Lloyd McClendon, John Gibbons, or Cecil Cooper. It could also be Daren Brown, hypothetically, but I don’t know anyone who actually thinks he has a real shot at this thing.
More to come, obviously.
Update: Buster Olney just sent out the following on Twitter. “Heard this: Eric Wedge did very, very well in his interview with Seattle Mariners. Wedge would be a good fit in Seattle; he’s experienced, he’s prepared to help with the rebuilding of the team,and a good organizational guy.” You can probably put two and two together.
Another update: Ken Rosenthal says John Gibbons has been told he’s out, too. All signs pointing to Eric Wedge at this point.
CJ Wilson and Cutters
My new post at Brock and Salk’s blog is up and deals with C.J. Wilson’s conversion from the bullpen to the rotation. It’s not super Mariner specific (next week’s follow-up will get more into the Seattle tie-in), but I think its interesting from a “how pitching works” point of view. We’ll be talking pitching and playoff baseball when I do my weekly spot with them at 11:30 on ESPN 710.
Also, my afternoon post on FanGraphs today deals with another subject I find interesting at the moment – the rise of the cutter as the hot new pitch in baseball, and how you’re going to see a lot of it in the next couple of weeks, given which teams are still alive in the playoffs. Interestingly, the Mariners staff doesn’t have anyone who uses the pitch. Jason Vargas toyed with one earlier in the season but the experiment didn’t last long. Cliff Lee and Jamey Wright represent almost all of the cutters the team threw in 2010 (which was still just 26th in the league), and neither will be on the roster next year. It will be interesting to see if the Mariners decide that this is a trend they want to pursue. The cutter is certainly showing benefits for some guys who add it, and its hard to argue with the results of those who have picked it up.
Ackley Out for a Few Days (At Least)
The Arizona Fall League season started Tuesday evening and now we already have our first injury (or second, if you want to consider Mangini’s strained quad leading to IF Matt Lawson being subbed in). 2B Dustin Ackley had tried to catch a line drive in the second game of the season and ended up with a sprained finger on his glove hand. The team doesn’t believe it’s serious, but it should keep him sidelined until next week, maybe longer. It’s disappointing in that he needs as much game time at second as he can get, but again, if he only misses a few games of the AFL season, which lasts a little over a month, it’s not quite so bad.
In more positive news, Josh Fields pitched for the first time since June 11th and ended up with a walk and two Ks in an inning of work. Venezuela is also active for winter baseball, and has Alex Liddi, Johermyn Chavez, Mauricio Robles, and Dan Cortes active so far, with Cortes and Robles both striking out one in one inning of relief. It’s something.
One Way To Describe Cliff Lee’s Greatness
Sandy Koufax, career, postseason:
57 innings, 32 hits, 10 runs, 2 home runs, 11 walks, 61 strikeouts
Cliff Lee, career, postseason:
56 1/3 innings, 32 hits, 11 runs, 1 home run, 6 walks, 54 strikeouts
New Second Base Candidate
Based on a conversation I had this morning, there’s apparently a name I left out of last week’s second baseman candidate post that could be a real possibility for the Mariners – Hiroyuki Nakajima. The shortstop is reportedly going to ask the Seibu Lions to post him so he can make a move to Major League Baseball next year. And, according to what I was told this morning, the Mariners are interested.
Nakajima is not an Ichiro/Matsuzaka kind of player where his posting will be a big deal stateside. The comparison I got was Taadahito Iguchi, and the price is expected to be similar – maybe a couple of million for the posting fee (Aki Iwamura, the only infielder ever posted from Japan, fetched $4.5 million), and then a short term, lower money contract. If he performed like Iguchi did in Chicago, it could be a huge bargain.
Nakajima is a shortstop in Japan, but some reports say he might profile better at second base. His experience at SS certainly wouldn’t hurt, though, and he could potentially shift across the bag if the team moved Jack Wilson once Dustin Ackley was ready. He’s a line drive gap hitter without big power, but he uses the whole field and could be a decent doubles guy. He doesn’t walk a lot, but as Patrick Newman of the great NPB Tracker pointed out, walks and strikeouts are both lower in Japan than in MLB, so that could change when he gets to the US.
If he can handle the transition from turf to grass and play some solid defense, he projects as a potential league average player. He turns 29 next summer, so he should have a few good years left in him. I’d say he’s certainly more interesting than a lot of the names we talked about last week, and he might not be much more expensive. Toss in the potential ability to play shortstop, and you can see why the M’s are apparently interested.
Just another name to tuck away for the winter. Should be an interesting offseason.