Now What?
A quick reminder that I’ll be doing my weekly chat with Brock and Salk on ESPN 710 today, but instead of 12:30, we’ll do it at 2:15. Can’t imagine what the topic of the day will be.
Okay, Junior’s retired. At the risk of sounding heartless, it’s time to figure out what to do with the roster now. In the short term, the M’s will almost certainly just call up another pitcher from Tacoma (bet on Chad Cordero) in order to get them through the rest of their 20-striaght-games-without-a-day-off stretch, and go back to the 12 man pitching staff. In the long term, however, the departure of Griffey from the roster gives the Mariners some opportunities.
Everyone knows they need another hitter. As we discussed yesterday, they probably need to upgrade at first base if they’re going to try to contend, but the open roster spot from Griffey retiring now gives them the potential to retain Kotchman and keep him as a part-time player if they can get a bat who can rotate between 1B/DH/LF.
There’s one really obvious guy who fits the bill perfectly: Luke Scott. I talked about him as a fit this winter, and we’ve mentioned his name a number of times over the first few months, but with Griffey out of the picture, he makes more sense than ever.
Against right-handers, you could put Saunders or Langerhans in left, Bradley at DH, and Scott at first base. On days where you wanted Kotchman’s glove in there (perhaps when Fister and Felix are pitching), Scott or Bradley can play left, with the other spending time at designated hitter. Against lefties, he could be a big thumping bat off the bench, the kind of real pinch-hitter that the team could use to sub in for the catcher in a high leverage situation.
A guy who can hit the ball a long way and give you flexibility at three positions, doesn’t make that much money, is under team control for 2011, and is playing on a team that has no chance of winning this year – seriously, he’s about as perfect a fit as you’re going to get.
It would have been hard to fit him into the roster with Griffey around. Now, the M’s have an opening for him. If they’re serious about winning, they should make this move sooner than later.
Minor League Wrap (5/24-30/10)
Sorry about this one being a few days late. Computer issues bogging me down and then I had to sift through everything again, so it’s a bit slapdash. Anyway, let’s get to it.
To the jump!
Read more
What a Night
I remember sitting in my room listening to the radio broadcast of Junior’s first home game; I was too stunned to jump around when that ball flew out to *left*, I just stared at the goosebumps on my arms.
I remember getting home from school and tuning in to the M’s in New York – a rare TV game. Every replay of that incredible catch of Barfield’s drive made it look more and more improbable.
I remember the 1996 season, with Griffey and Rodriguez drawing comparisons to Mantle/Maris. I was in college miles and miles from Washington, but people from all over couldn’t stop talking about it. Some even expressed jealousy that I was an M’s fan; this stopped abruptly in 1998/1999.
Junior slow slide into replacement level started early, but he had so far to fall that he’s hung on for a decade. Did he stick around too long? Yes, of course. But the slide may keep some fans from remembering just how amazing Griffey was in the mid-90s. Rally’s historical WAR database has a couple of seasons over 9 WAR, which equal or best Pujols’ best years, and leave Randy Johnson’s in the dust. That’s worth remembering.
Because of this, I look past the negatives – and there were plenty. I remember the acrimonious end to Griffey’s first go-round in Seattle, and I’ve always resisted the Manichean story that Griffey ‘saved’ baseball here (or the subtext that there was no baseball here pre-Griffey). But he made baseball here an absolute joy to watch for many years, and that’s enough for me.
After reading Shannon Drayer’s story here, I wonder if Griffey’s enjoying the fact that his somewhat awkward exit has been upstaged by the drama surrounding Armando Galarraga’s perfect game in Detroit.
You’ve all seen the replay by now, and you all know how horribly Jim Joyce bungled that call. Joyce himself apologized to Galarraga after the game. There’s an interesting debate going on about how MLB can ‘make this right’ for Galarraga; apparently the official scorer is looking at changing the call to an error that would at least preserve a no-hitter. Others (including our fearless leader at USSM) argue that MLB should overturn the call and retroactively give Galarraga a perfect game.
What’s somewhat encouraging is that opponents of an expanded replay are in retreat. There’s no way to argue that replay in this instance wouldn’t have 1) overturned the call and 2) not interrupted the game in any meaningful fashion.
I feel like we’re winning this war. The ALCS last year, and now Galarraga this year; it’s happening too often and the situations are too important. From all accounts, Joyce is a good guy. He never asked to be a poster boy for blown calls, and hey, we have the technology to not allow any poor umpire to feel what Joyce is feeling right now.
*edited to add the correct direction of Jr.’s first Kingdome HR. Sheesh. Since it was on radio, I had this perfect image of that shot, and I remember feeling confused and a little bit let down when I finally saw a replay of it. It looked all wrong (though still pretty cool).
Game Fifty-Two Recap
Yay, 21-31.
Let’s just be honest – the M’s got a gift. Replays show that Josh Wilson was probably out, so if the ump gets the call right, we’re still playing, and the Twins have the top of their order coming up. On a night that Jim Joyce changed history with a bad call in Detroit, we just saw another reason why this game badly needs instant replay – the umpires are not good enough to do this without help.
Cliff Lee is just so, so good. I don’t know how much longer we’ll get to watch him pitch, so savor his starts.
Another bad night for the offense. Jack can talk about being “reasonably optimistic” about this roster all he wants, but the M’s now have an open roster spot, and they should use it on someone who can hit.
Lots of potential goats spared from withering criticism tonight. Rob Johnson with another backbreaking passed ball in the 9th inning, putting the go-ahead run in scoring position. Wak going with Eliezar Alfonzo as his pinch-hitter in the 10th, and not having RRS or Olson warming up to go after the LHBs due up in the top of the 11th, if it got there. The M’s nearly lost a game they should have won, but in the end, they’ll take the gift win.
Game 52, Twins at Mariners
Lee vs Slowey, 7:10 pm.
No commentary tonight. It doesn’t feel right to write about anything else on the night when Jr retires.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Huggy Bear, DH
Bradley, LF
Lopez, 3B
Kotchman, 1B
Johnson, C
Josh Wilson, SS
Griffey Retires
Per Ryan Divish on twitter, the M’s have just called an impromptu press conference to announce Ken Griffey Jr’s retirement.
We’ll deal with what this means for the 2010 Mariners tomorrow. I know a lot of you love the guy, so this thread is for you to say goodbye.
The First Base Problem
With a limited budget, the Mariners took a chance on the hope of Casey Kotchman‘s untapped potential. A good hitter in the minors (and in the majors in 2007, his first year of regular playing time), the M’s hoped to buy low on a guy who could be more than he had been previously. In a lot of ways, Kotchman was this year’s Franklin Gutierrez.
Unlike with Death To Flying Things, it hasn’t worked out so well. The M’s talked of tweaking Kotchman’s swing and how he could take advantage of Safeco Field, but 175 plate appearances into the experiment, and Kotchman’s been almost exactly the same guy he was last year (even if the results don’t show it). A quick comparison:
2009: 9% BB%, 11% K%, .114 ISO, 51% GB%, 7% HR/FB
2010: 9% BB%, 12% K%, .123 ISO, 53% GB%, 8% HR/FB
His atrocious batting average is driven by a .201 batting average on balls in play, well below the .283 mark he posted last year, and has taken a decent player and made him useless so far. That will change – he’s not nearly as bad as his overall batting line would indicate.
But, regression to last year’s number isn’t what the M’s were hoping for. He wasn’t supposed to be the same guy as last year. The M’s were betting on improvement, and so far, there hasn’t been any. He’s still pounding the ball into the ground, limiting his ability to hit for power. He doesn’t have an extra base hit since May 5th, despite playing first base almost every day. The defense is nice, but even with a solid glove, he was just a +1 win player in 430 plate appearances last year, and he ended up as a reserve on a contending team.
It’s June, and it’s getting close to the time where the M’s may have to admit that Kotchman isn’t going to be Gutierrez 2.0. They’ve given him a chance to get back to what he was in 2007, and he hasn’t done it. He’s been the exact same disappointing player of the last few years, only with worse luck. And that’s just not going to cut it, no matter what direction the team decides to go in.
If they want to try to contend, they probably need to upgrade at first base. If they want to rebuild, well, Kotchman’s not part of the future here. He’s arbitration eligible at the end of the year, and I don’t think anyone wants to pay him roughly $4 to $5 million to try again next year. He’s a non-tender guy, so barring a monster second half, his Mariner career probably ends with 2010. So, you’re not building for the future by running him out there either.
No matter which way they go, the direction probably shouldn’t include Casey Kotchman, starting first baseman. They either need to upgrade the position or give the playing time to someone who might actually be around in 2011.
Game 51, Twins at Mariners
Blackburn vs Vargas, 7:10 pm.
For Vargas, it should be an interesting night. On one hand, the Twins line-up is very left-handed, which helps him. On the other hand, those left-handed hitters are really good, so that’s kind of a problem. I’d expect more fastballs than usual tonight, but if he doesn’t have pinpoint location, there’s a good chance the folks in the right field bleachers could have some souvenir chasing to do.
With the team finally done facing a string of lefties, Saunders is back in the line-up playing left field. Fear not, though, as Mike Sweeney is still in there, hitting clean-up, as Saunders gives Bradley the day off instead. I wonder if Wak realizes that Mr. Hot Bat is 1 for his last 14. In and of itself, that is meaningless information, of course, but considering that the only justification for playing him is that he’s “swinging a hot bat”, I’d say its kind of relevant to note that, well, he’s not.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Sir Hugs A Lot, DH
Lopez, 3B
Kotchman, 1B
Josh Wilson, SS
Alfonso, C
Saunders, LF
A New Feature On FanGraphs
Taking a quick break from the Mariners (let’s be honest, we all need it), I wanted to let you guys know about a new feature that was rolled out over at FanGraphs this morning – customizable stat reports on every player page.
Since the days of baseball cards and looking at weekly leaderboards in the USA Today, we’ve all become accustomed to consuming the statistics that are offered to us. For years, people believed in Batting Average, Home Runs, Runs Batted In, Wins, and ERA, because those were the numbers that the media presented to them. Over time, better metrics were introduced, but it’s always been up to you to go find them. Now, however, FanGraphs is giving you the chance to create a custom report that goes at the top of every single player page on the site, with the stats that you want to see, and nothing else.
Here’s mine, using Franklin Gutierrez as an example.
I get everything I want on one line – age, plate appearances, BA/OBP/SLG and his wOBA in one box, allowing me to see how well he’s hit in each year of his career. In the next box, I have the factors that make up the first part, showing where his performance is coming from – walk rate, strikeout rate, isolated slugging, ground ball rate, home run to fly ball ratio, and batting average on balls in play. This section shows me where the value is coming from, and whether its something we might be able to identify as real improvement (the spike in BB%, for instance) or whether its mostly luck (like his current BABIP, which he won’t keep up). Finally, I get total value breakdowns, with his offensive and defensive run values above average and a total WAR value.
But, you don’t have to be like me. Maybe you want to see how often a guy is swinging, and what kinds of pitches he’s swinging at? No problem, all the plate discipline stats are there for you to pick from. Want to know how clutch a guy has been? Pick from the win probability stats, which take the game context into account. Want to see what types of pitches he’s doing well against? Our linear weights pitch type values are part of the customization package. Or, hey, if you want to be old school, stick BA, HR, and RBI on there. It’s really up to you.
There’s a reason we partnered with FanGraphs – it’s stuff like this. Fan friendly, practically useful tools to help you understand and enjoy the game better. You don’t have to go hunting for high quality statistics anymore. Now, they come to you.
M’s Panic, Do Stupid Thing
The Mariners decided to shake up the roster after a third straight one run loss, which could have been a good thing. Instead, they decided to scapegoat Kanekoa Texeira, making the ridiculous decision to designate him for assignment, ending his career as a Mariner. More wisely, they also DFA’d Jesus Colome, using the roster spots to recall Sean White and Garrett Olson.
The M’s obsession with Sean White continues to baffle the mind. Make no mistake – Sean White is a horrible pitcher, and anyone who tells you otherwise is wrong. He’s thrown 112 innings in the major leagues, posting an xFIP of 5.33. Replacement level for a reliever is about 4.50. White doesn’t do anything well. Despite the reputation as a sinkerball guy, he doesn’t get that many ground balls (career rate of 49 percent, 44 percent this year, league average is about 44 percent), he doesn’t strike anyone out (career 3.94 K/9, which is atrocious), and he doesn’t throw strikes (career 3.70 BB/9). He does not possess a single major league skill. He’s Triple-A fodder, the kind of mediocre middle reliever that every team in the PCL has several of. Put simply, he sucks.
You know who doesn’t suck? Kanekoa Texeira, who is better at absolutely everything than Sean White. His fastball has more movement, his breaking ball is a legitimate outpitch, and he’s shown the ability to actually get hitters from both sides of the plate out. Yes, the sample size is ridiculously small (18 2/3 innings in the majors), but even with his recent struggles, his 4.32 xFIP is a run better than White’s mark, because he actually has pitched pretty well at times. He has present value and future value – two things Sean White does not currently have, nor will he ever have.
I’d call this rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but by getting rid of Texeira, it’s more like tossing one of the life preservers over board. He’s a legitimate major league reliever, and one of the few guys in the bullpen who could get lefties out. Yes, he had a couple of bad outings, but dumping him is just dumb. You know who is still here, though? Matt Tuiasosopo, he of the .383 OPS. And now we have his equally crappy relief twin back on the team. This is all just so stupid.
Meanwhile, the problems with the roster are no more fixed than they were before this pseudo purge. This is just as useless as firing Alan Cockrell, but with more downside, as the Mariners actually got rid of part of the solution.
Remember that front office of last year that did everything right? I want that one back. This one isn’t much fun. This team could be good, but the front office is finding new and creative ways to screw it up. Chalk up another bad decision in a trend that is getting really annoying.