Game 14, Orioles at Mariners
Bergesen vs Fister, 7:10 pm.
The Orioles stagger in at 2-11, but this team is not Astros-bad. Their offense is suffering from some key guys off to slow starts (including Adam Jones and Nick Marakis, who are clearly better than they’ve played so far), their pitchers are allowing a .341 BABIP, and they’ve lost a couple of close games when their closers have melted down. Don’t be fooled by their record – this series won’t be a cakewalk.
Bradley’s back in left field tonight. They know how he’s feeling better than we do, but the M’s are riding him really hard so far this year, as he’s currently on place to play in 139 games. He’s only done that once, back in 2004, when he played a career high 141. And he’s playing the outfield almost exclusively at this point. This can’t be sustained forever, but as long as the M’s are committed to Griffey in the line-up, they don’t have much of a choice, as we saw how bad the offense vs RHPs can be without Bradley. This will be something to watch going forward.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 2B
Griffey, DH
Bradley, LF
Kotchman, 1B
Johnson, C
Wilson, SS
Monday Radio Hit
Starting tonight, I’m going to be doing a weekly radio spot on “The Locker Room” on 1510 KGA in Spokane. I’ll be on at 5:35 tonight, though most weeks it will be 5:20. You can listen live from the link on the right hand side of their page.
Some Changes At USSM
With Derek off to take over the fiction writing world, obviously USSM has lost a pretty big asset. We’re not going to be able to replace him, nor are we really going to try. But that doesn’t mean that we’re just folding up our tent and going home. To offset his loss, we’ve made some changes behind the scenes, and this post will hopefully help clarify what the site will look like going forward.
The Line Between Aggressive and Dumb
If you’ve watched the Mariners play the first two weeks of the season, you’ve seen the team’s speed create runs through stolen bases, forced errors, and taking home on shallow fly balls. You’ve also seen the team run themselves out of innings and make a load of inexplicable outs while trying to advance in situations where they had little chance of success.
So, it probably should not surprise you that the Mariners are tied for second in bases taken, They have advanced an extra 20 bases on fly balls, wild pitches, passed balls, and the like, and have added an additional 11 stolen bases to that total. Only the Dodgers have gotten more extra bases by running aggressively this year.
Also not a surprise? The Mariners lead the league in baserunning outs, having made nine while trying to take an extra base and six by getting caught stealing. In just 13 games, they have made a staggering 15 outs, taking at-bats away from their hitters and essentially canceling out all the good that the aggressiveness has done.
In most cases, taking an extra base is worth about a quarter of a run, but making an out on the bases costs a team about half a run. The out is essentially twice as bad as the advancement is good. So, when you’ve taken 31 bases but made 15 outs to do it, you’ve basically broken even, where the total overall value added to your offense by running has been no different than if the team had just played station to station baseball.
The argument that is usually made in favor of aggressive baserunning is that it puts pressure on the defense, but in reality, the M’s have routinely been taking pressure off of the defense by running themselves right out of rallies. There are few better things for a pitcher than having a runner in scoring position make an out, keeping him from having to throw high stress pitches out of the stretch. And the Mariners have made a lot of outs in situations where they already had the pitcher on the ropes, only to let him off the hook by getting thrown out.
For guys like Ichiro and Figgins, there should be a pretty long leash. They’ve proven to be two of the best baserunners in baseball over their careers, and they’ll add value through utilizing their speed throughout the year. But it’s the other guys that Wak has to rein in. Milton Bradley has already made three outs on the bases, while Casey Kotchman has made two (both on glaringly bad decisions this weekend). Bradley isn’t slow, but he’s got a long history of injuries that have routinely kept him off the field, and he’s not a good enough baserunner to justify the risk. Kotchman is one of the slowest guys in baseball, and simply shouldn’t be wandering away from a base he’s reached safely unless he can walk into the next one.
The top two guys can run and be aggressive. They have the ability to really add value through their wheels. The rest of the team, though, need to put the breaks on the craziness. The hitting isn’t good enough to overcome no-added-value baserunning, so the Mariners simply have to be smarter about picking their spots. Jack Wilson can’t get thrown out by 10 feet stealing second base anymore. For this team, guys on base are going to be a precious resource not to be wasted.
Let the top two guys run all they want, but the other seven, they need to show more restraint, and soon, because the Mariners can’t keep running themselves out of rallies like they have been through the first two weeks.
Minor League Wrap (4/8-18/10)
The wraps are back again, for a second minor league season. It’s your one-stop shop for all the data you need on the past week in minor league action, distilled into a more easily digested form (but littered with box scores for the more curious among you). As per usual, I’ll try to be around as much as I can to field questions about this and that when it comes up. Unless it’s about Rafael dePaula, because I haven’t heard anything lately.
To the jump!
Read more
Game 13 Recap
Boo, 6-7.
I didn’t see the game, so I have nothing to offer, other than it doesn’t look like I missed much. So much for Snell having his best start as a Mariner, though if he was under the weather, we can give him a mulligan. He’ll have to show something pretty soon though, especially if Fister and Vargas pitch well the next couple of days.
Oh, and it appears that the team made three more outs on the bases today. This is becoming a huge problem.
Game 13, Tigers at Mariners
Scherzer vs Snell, 1:10 pm.
For the same reason why this Tigers line-up wasn’t a great match-up for Ryan Rowland-Smith, we really can’t ask for a better spot for Ian Snell to pitch – in Safeco, against a Tigers offense that will feature just three left-handed bats. Three of the top four hitters will swing from the right side, so Snell should be able to face a significant majority of RH hitters before the M’s go to the bullpen (which is also full of right-handed relievers).
Here’s Snell’s career splits, by the way:
Vs RHB: 2.95 BB/9, 7.87 K/9, 41% GB%, 4.04 xFIP
Vs LHB: 5.47 BB/9, 6.53 K/9, 42% GB%, 5.15 xFIP
This all basically boils down to the slider. Snell’s breaking ball is a real weapon against righties and useless against lefties. He’s got the stuff to get through this Detroit line-up, and a ballpark to help keep the ball in the yard. Don’t be surprised if he has his best start as a Mariner.
Game Twelve Recap
Yay, 6-6.
This will be shorter than normal, because its late on a Saturday night and this thread will be seen by about 12 people before tomorrow’s game thread goes up. So, brief thoughts.
Hyphen faced 25 hitters tonight, and every single one of them stepped into the right-handed batters box. No, he wasn’t dominating, but he faced an entire line-up of RHBs, and a lot of pitchers would simply fold in that situation. Breaking balls generally aren’t as effective against opposite handed hitters, so RRS went to the change-up, and used it early and often. He pitched better than the final stat line will show, because the degree of difficulty on this one was ridiculous.
The M’s did a great job of making Verlander work in the first inning, running his pitch count up to 28 at the end of the first frame. And then, the bottom of the line-up came up and pretended like they didn’t just see the plan. Kotchman swung at the first pitch he saw, flying out to center. Jack Wilson hacked at the second pitch he saw, and while it resulted in a base hit, he then got thrown out trying to steal second base – and he was out by 10 feet. Just like that, the inning was over, and Verlander had his pitch count back under control. He ended up getting through the last six innings on 75 pitches. One good inning of hitting was followed by six bad innings, as the Mariners totally let Verlander off the hook. Kotchman, Moore, and Wilson combined to make nine outs (two on the bases) and do it in just 31 pitches. It can’t just be Figgins, Gutierrez, and Bradley making pitchers work. The bottom three guys aren’t good enough hitters to get away with swinging early in the count against a guy like Verlander. Talk to them, Wak.
In the ninth inning, Ramon Santiago hit a slicing line drive down the left field line that looked like an easy double off the bat. Milton Bradley caught it without breaking a sweat. There was some seriously great positioning in that at-bat, and whichever coach Lee Tinsley (per Divish) told Milton where to stand, saving the M’s from a potentially miserable situation. If Santiago gets on, the tying run comes to the plate with the top of the Tigers order due up. Instead, there were two outs and Austin Jackson represented the final hurdle for Aardsma. That was a huge out, and it was made possible by someone doing some really good advanced scouting, and the coaching staff taking advantage of it.
Game 12, Tigers at Mariners
Verlander vs Rowland-Smith, 6:10 pm.
On paper, this isn’t a very good match-up for the M’s. The Tigers line-up is pretty right-handed, so even though RRS doesn’t demonstrate a big platoon split, this is still not really the kind of line-up you want him facing. Verlander, of course, is one of the best pitchers in the game, and capable of throwing zeros at the M’s as long as he stays in. If the M’s hack at too many of his fastballs and give him easy outs, they have very little chance of winning. They have to make him work, get his pitch count up, and try to win the game against Detroit’s bullpen.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 2B
Griffey, DH
Bradley, LF
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Wilson, SS
Game Eleven Recap
Yay, 5-6.
After four close wins that all demanded David Aardsma to preserve a lead in the ninth inning, that was a nice change.
Let’s start with Felix. For the first three innings, he pitched as well as is humanly possible. This wasn’t the Felix we saw in years past, where he’d just pound the zone with fastballs and take a beating early. He went after Austin Jackson with two sinkers, then a curve and a change-up for the strikeout. He setup Johnny Damon with a couple of sinkers, then threw him an 0-2 curve before blowing him away with a four seam fastball up and away. He established his fastball, but he didn’t make it the only pitch in his repertoire.
Even in the fourth, he didn’t pitch badly despite giving up two runs. Jackson hit a flare up the middle for an infield single, and then Damon hit a groundball that’s an easy out if Kotchman isn’t holding the runner on. Miguel Cabrera took a fastball at the knees into the gap for a double, but that’s why he’s one of the best hitters in baseball. With the tying run at second base, Felix busted out the nasty stuff, and stranded Cabrera in scoring position.
He wasn’t as efficient as he could have been, especially with the big lead, but this was one of those nights where the other team didn’t stand much of a chance. He was overpowering, racking up nine strikeouts and simply looking unhittable for long stretches. The Tigers weren’t winning tonight. Not with that version of Felix on the mound.
Of course, the M’s didn’t need Felix to pitch a shutout tonight, because the offense busted out for 11 runs, which didn’t seem possible for the first ten games of the season. The top of the order showed how this team is going to create runs this year, as Ichiro, Figgins, and Gutierrez combined to go 5 for 11 with 3 walks and a couple of stolen bases. You don’t need Adrian Gonzalez to drive in runs when your top three hitters get on base eight times. The M’s still didn’t show any power, with only the one extra base hit, but six walks and 11 singles work too. The M’s won’t always find this many holes, but neither will they always hit every ball right at someone like they did the first week of the season. Regression to the mean can be fun when you’ve been running overly cold, and that’s basically what we saw tonight.
Of all the hitters to single out, I’m going to go with Rob Johnson. A year ago, he combined a lack of power and contact ability with a frustratingly terrible approach at the plate. He chased pitches out of the zone and regularly got himself out, rarely worked counts, and was generally useless at the plate. He’s shown significantly more selectivity this year, and tonight, drew his fourth and fifth walks of the season, despite having just 23 plate appearances. He still can’t hit, but it seems like he may have learned that he can’t hit, and he’s now willing to adopt the Chone Figgins approach, rarely swinging unless he has to. Given his skillset, that’s not a bad idea. He’s still going to find new and creative ways to frustrate us with passed balls and easy drops, but if he’s willing to take the free pass when its offered, he might yet turn out to be moderately useful.
M’s go for .500 tomorrow, but they do it against Justin Verlander, who is the Tigers version of Felix. He has knockout stuff, but also can run up high pitch counts and get himself out of the game in the 6th inning against teams who are willing to make him work. Be nice to see the M’s steal one and even up the record, which should finally silence the last of the crazies who were freaking out a few days ago.