Game 5, Mariners at Rangers
Vargs vs Lewis, 5:05 pm
This is a pretty good chance to talk about Jason Vargas, who makes his season debut tonight. He’s a pretty typical soft-tossing command lefty who throws strikes and doesn’t miss many bats, but he features one really good pitch – his change-up. It’s one of the best on the team, and is the reason that Vargas has essentially run a neutral platoon split over his career (4.60 xFIP vs LHB, 4.71 xFIP vs RHB). His fastball and breaking ball are both substandard, but with a plus change, Vargas manages to get ahead of enough hitters to serve as a decent back-end starter.
His glaring problem is the long ball. He throws a four seam fastball up in the zone, and when he doesn’t locate it just right, it’s a meatball. He’s given up 33 home runs in 218 career innings, and it’s not even driven by an abnormally high HR/FB rate. He’s an extreme flyball guy, due to the way he pitches, and that inevitably leads to home runs. On days when he keeps the ball in the park, he’ll look pretty good. When he doesn’t, he’ll look pretty terrible. It basically boils down to that.
So, he makes his season debut in Texas, facing a line-up that features guys like Vladimir Guerrero, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, and Chris Davis. Can’t say this is the kind of team he’s setup to do well against. So, I guess my suggestion is don’t judge Vargas based on tonight – a homer prone lefty making his debut against a home run hitting team in Texas is not really a recipe for success.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Kotchman, 1B
Bradley, LF
Griffey, DH
Lopez, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Moore, C
Wilson, SS
Rainiers Opening Day Recap
The Tacoma Rainiers opened 2010 with a loss, thanks in large part to Rockies prospect Jhoulys Chacin, who went 5 shutout innings, striking out 6, walking one, and allowing only a single to Tommy Everidge. He threw a sinking fastball at about 90/91 with great command, along with a change and a rare curve. Chacin was the minor league pitcher of the year in 2008, but struggled with his command in 2009 in AAA and in a brief call-up with the Rockies. Judging from tonight’s game, he’s put those issues behind him.
I’m hyping Chacin because the M’s prospects looked ugly tonight, and we need to put those struggles in context. Ezequiel Carrera hit the ball hard (and in the air, which were the only two air outs Chacin allowed), but ended the day 0-4. Greg Halman struck out in his first three AAA at-bats, but having someone who struggles with pitch recognition open the year against a pitcher with an exceptional change-up probably wasn’t ideal. He did manage a base on balls off a scuffling Juan Rincon. Mike Saunders earned the only free pass off of Chacin (though Chacin also K’d him) and also singled to left off a reliever. Mike Carp and Matt Mangini also started the year with 0-4 nights.
Defensively, the Rainiers trot out three OFs who’ve played CF in the past. I’d imagine all of them will rotate through the three OF positions, but for tonight, Saunders got the call for CF, with Carrera in LF and Halman in right. For the most part, they looked OK; Carrera struggled a bit to track some FBs, though strong winds certainly played a role. Halman seemed to take good routes in his few chances, and played a carom off the fence beautifully to keep Mike Paulk to a single.
It’s one game, and it’s one game against a really tough pitcher (reliever Edgmer Escalona‘s no slouch either). But if Milton Bradley’s going to play LF 5 days a week, the likelihood that the M’s will need to use one of their OF prospects (at least for a while) is pretty high. Saunders still has the inside track, both offensively and defensively, but it certainly would be nice if Carrera makes the decision a bit harder.
(Opening day photos here)
For Comparison
The Angels are also 1-3 after four games. They were playing at home.
They have scored 12 runs, half of those coming on opening day.
Brandon Wood, the guy they are counting on to replace Chone Figgins at third base, is 1 for 12 with 5 strikeouts, looking just as lost as he always has in the big leagues.
Jeff Mathis, he of the projected .281 wOBA, has started three of the first four games behind the plate, while Mike Napoli (projected .367 wOBA) sits and watches. Napoli is the Angels second or third best hitter, and he has four plate appearances so far.
None of their four starters have pitched beyond the 6th inning. Joe Saunders got pounded, and Ervin Santana’s average fastball in his first start was 93.5 MPH, up from last year but still down 1.5 MPH over his breakout 2008 season. Joel Pineiro walked three batters in his first start since shifting back to the AL – he only walked three batters in one start all of last year.
Their new $7 million setup man, Fernando Rodney, gave up four runs last night, and is now sporting an ERA of 18.00.
Breakout star hitter Kendry Morales is 3 for 17 with no walks and one extra base hit.
If you’re freaking out about how bad the Mariners have looked, and how many players are off to poor starts, and how this is the end of the world, then I guess you also think that the Angels are toast as well. If you think its too early to count Anaheim out, and that they’ll start playing better soon, well, then, yeah, don’t forget to apply that feeling to the home town nine as well.
Game Four Recap
Boo, 1-3.
It was Doug Fister vs Brett Anderson. They weren’t going to win this game without a lot of luck. And then Rajai Davis took away a home run from Milton Bradley, and you just got the feeling that this wasn’t a get lucky kind of day.
So, rather than write about the ineptitude that was today, let’s talk about the bigger picture. We talked about how this was something like an 84 win team in terms of true talent level, but that projection includes the value the team is supposed to get from Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard, and Jack Hannahan when they return from the DL. This roster, the one the M’s are running out there right now, is more like a 76 or 77 win team.
So, yeah, they looked like crap for most of the last three days. Well, right now, they kind of are. When Lee got hurt, the odds of them playing well in April went down significantly. The dropoff from Lee to Fister is pretty dramatic, and it affects the rest of the roster. This team, as currently constructed, is going to be pretty frustrating to watch at times. April is survival month, where the goal is just to keep within shouting distance of the rest of the division so they can try and make a run when they get the injured guys back in the fold.
So, hang in there. The Angels went 9-13 in April last year, then rallied once Lackey and crew got healthy. That’s the path the M’s have to take this year. It’s not going to look good this month. There are going to be too many days like today, where the team doesn’t look capable of beating anyone. But, don’t abandon ship yet. This isn’t the team the M’s put together this winter, and it’s not the team we’re going to see in a month or so. If we get into May and the team still can’t play, we’ll all freak out together then.
For April, though, let’s just all try to not break too many bones jumping off the bandwagon. The first month is going to suck. Let’s just try to survive it.
Game 4, Mariners at A’s
Fister vs Anderson, 12:35 pm.
For an encore to the last two days, the team now gets to face the A’s best pitcher. I love Brett Anderson. Love him. A lefty with a sinking mid-90s fastball and a knockout slider who commands both and knows how to pitch at age 22? It doesn’t get a whole lot better than that. He’s on the verge of being really special, and he’ll have days where no one can touch him. Hopefully, today is not one of those days.
Doug Fister is no Brett Anderson.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Bradley, LF
Mascot, DH
Lopez, 3B
Tuiasosopo, 1B
Moore, C
Wilson, SS
The End Of The Six Man Bullpen
That didn’t take long. The M’s have decided that three days is enough, and the six man bullpen is no more. Jesus Colome has been called up from Tacoma to give the team another arm out of the pen. To take his place on the roster, Ryan Langerhans has been designated for assignment.
There’s no nice way to say this – the team is now actively making themselves worse to keep Mike Sweeney’s personality around. Langerhans is a better hitter, a better fielder, a better runner, and a guy who can actually serve a useful purpose on this team. Mike Sweeney is a mascot taking up a roster spot. Now, it’s not just some theoretically useful player he’s blocking, but an actual, honest to goodness major league player that the team is discarding to keep his cheerleading behind around.
This sucks. Go away, Mike Sweeney. If you want to hang out with the guys, accept a coaching job.
Rainiers Opening Day (and notes)
You’ve had a chance to read Jay’s team preview below, so you know who’s who. If you’ve got tickets, you’re probably checking the weather reports every few minutes like I am. If you don’t, you can always tune in to 850AM (or on-line here) and catch Mike Curto’s call.
Without rehashing what Jay’s written, I wanted to highlight a few things to keep an eye on as the season progresses. The team has some question marks, but with a lot of experience on the mound and a mix of vets, prospects, and the singular Greg Halman, they’re easily worth the drive to Tacoma.
1) The development of Ezequiel Carrera. While it was the pitching prospects (especially Michael Pineda) who really opened eyes this spring, Zeke Carrera impressed as well. The CF/lead-off man led the Southern League in OBP last year, but many wondered if his approach would be as successful at higher levels.
Carrera hit reasonably well with the M’s early in March, and capped his Spring with a homer off of Felix Hernandez in a minor league game. No one’s expecting power from him (unlike Tyson Gillies, another speedy lead-off prospect that the M’s dealt to Phildelphia in the Cliff Lee trade), but Rainiers hitting coach Alonso Powell thinks there’s more in him than the 2 HR, .079 ISO that he tallied last year. The spring samples are tiny, but they need to be combined with Carrera’s improvement from 2008 to 2009.
If Powell’s right, and if Carrera’s able to maintain his eye ratio in AAA (while playing a decent CF), then he’ll be an intriguing prospect. Most have his ceiling as a good 4th OF, like Endy Chavez, but this year will go a long way towards setting a ceiling and floor for Carrera. Powell’s description of Carrera as ‘the consummate pest’ reminds me of Chone Figgins.
Have I mentioned recently how amazing the Putz trade was? No? REALLY amazing.
2) What do we have in Matt Mangini? Mangini was drafted in the supplemental round in 2007 out of Oklahoma State. He’d impressed everyone in the Cape Cod league in 2006, then had a relatively ho-hum senior season (a classic Fontaine draft profile).
As a pro, Mangini’s struggled with strike-outs and power, and isn’t going to be appearing on any prospect lists. But if he’s able to build on last season’s improvement (K% dropping under 20%), Matt’s still got a shot. Powell worked with Mangini after the ’07 draft, as he was the M’s minor league hitting coordinator; maybe the familiarity will help.
There’s absolutely nothing in Mangini’s statistical record that gives one a lot of hope (the improvement from ’08 to ’09 in AA was nice, but it doesn’t take a lot to improve on a wOBA of .223), but scouts raved about his bat before, and his 2008 line was similar to Matt Tuiasosopo’s trial by fire in AA in 2006 (.226 wOBA). We’ve loved the flyers this org’s taken on ex-prospects, and in Mangini, they’ve got one. While it may seem like damning with faint praise, the fact that he’s a better defender at 3B than Chris Shelton should help a pitching staff that features a lot of ground ballers, too.
3) Managing the journeyman staff seems like it might be easy – none of the starters (David Pauley, Yusmeiro Petit, Chris Seddon, Steven Shell, Luke French) are new to AAA, and only opening day starter David Pauley hasn’t yet played in both AAA leagues. All of them have major league experience, and in fact only 2 of the 12 pitchers on the roster haven’t yet made the majors (Steve Bray and Andy Baldwin, both of whom have plenty of AAA service time). So while it seems easier for new pitching coach Jaime Navarro – especially in comparison to the job Alonso Powell has with Halman – the experience of the staff is a mixed blessing.
Take Steven Shell, whom the M’s picked up after he was DFAd by the Nationals early last year. In 2008, he put up a very solid season in the Nats bullpen, with a Sean White-like 2+ ERA, backed up by so-so peripherals. Still, he found himself out of a job 5 innings into the 2009 season, when the Nationals let him go (Nats GM Mike Rizzo trashed him in the press as well). The M’s quickly shifted him back to the rotation, but he was getting hammered before a line-drive to the face ended his season prematurely.
He had some motivation to try something new when he came to spring training this year, but it’s got to be tough for a pitching coach to get an MLB veteran to buy into changes to his mechanics or routine. I asked Shell, who admitted that it was tougher for him to make changes now, after getting good results in the majors at age 26. But he believes a mechanical adjustment that Rick Adair will help his consistency, and he’s worked with Jaime Navarro before – this winter, Navarro was Shell’s pitching coach with the Lara Cardinales in Venezuela.
So what’s the point? Does anyone care if Shell (or Seddon, or Petit) improve? SP depth is critical in any situation, but it’s especially important when Erik Bedard’s coming off of shoulder surgery, Cliff Lee’s starting the year on the DL, Ian Snell is Ian Snell, and Jason Vargas and Doug Fister are in the opening day starting rotation. None of these guys are bad, and there’s a ton of upside there, but unless the M’s want to bring up one of the WT ‘spects early, they may need to tap one of the AAA starters (though none of them are on the 40 man).
2010 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
Happy Minor League Opening Day, all.
I wish the Rainiers were as neat as the D-Jaxx. They aren’t at the moment, sadly. You have a few interesting pitchers here and there who might see time with the club (more, if Lee and Bedard come back healthy later), multiple slugging first baseman and only two positions they can comfortably occupy, and outfield entirely of 40-man members which run a spectrum of risk and reward. It’s not the most exciting triple-A squad out there, but if you’re nearby, I’d say the outfield provides enough reason to go, if not the possibility of Brad Nelson playing it.
Read more
Game Three Recap
Boo, 1-2.
Don’t worry, I won’t make a habit out of starting these things by talking about the opposing starting pitcher, but Justin Duchscherer was pretty interesting to watch tonight. He’s never been a hard thrower, with a fastball that averaged about 86 MPH the last few years, but that was his top speed tonight. The fastest pitch he threw was 86.2 MPH, and his heater was more regularly in the 84 to 85 range. To compensate, he just threw a ton of breaking balls, and while it worked okay, you saw the problem when he had to come over with a fastball to Bradley in the first inning. It’s just one start, and the first one of the season, but if Duchscherer is just a junk-ball guy now, Oakland’s shot at having a good year takes a blow – they’re depending on him to be average or better as a starter, but he won’t be with the repertoire he showed tonight.
As for the M’s starter, Rowland-Smith was his usual self, just with poor location, especially on his change-up. He left too many of them up in the zone, and the A’s ripped a lot of line drives when he got too much of the plate. He’s a guy that needs to put the ball in the right spots to succeed, and he didn’t really do that tonight. It happens. I wouldn’t be overly concerned.
Good to see Bradley put the ball in the seats in the first inning. I was on with Kevin Calabro on ESPN Radio today, and there were already questions being raised about his abilities after his first two games. The rope isn’t going to be as long with Bradley as it is with others, so a good start to the season would be really nice. I’m not worried about whether or not he’ll hit – there are enough other things to be concerned with from Milton.
Junior’s bat looks so slow. I’m not a scout, but yeah, there isn’t much left in that tank.
League’s fastball has some ridiculous movement to it, but that also comes with the downside of not really being able to command it all that well. Part of his big step forward last year was working in his splitter, but we haven’t seen much of it in his first two outings – 36 of 38 pitches tonight were fastballs. He’s gotta be less fastball-centric going forward. It’s a good pitch, but it’s not good enough to be the only thing he throws.
The six man bullpen is getting tested early on, with the M’s playing three tight games and Rowland-Smith only going five innings tonight. With Fister and Vargas going the next two days, we’re probably one bad start away from people suggesting that the team pull the plug on the experiment. I think a six man bullpen can work, but I’m not sure that this is the right situation for it, with Lee on the DL, an offense that won’t give you many large leads, and a bullpen full of right-handers who don’t throw strikes. Will be interesting to see how attached the M’s are to the 11 man pitching staff, especially with Mike Sweeney having no useful role on this club. If either of the next two days starters have to come out early, the M’s might have to ask Sweeney to take one for the team and spend 15 days on the DL.
Game Three, Mariners at A’s
Rowland-Smith vs Duchscherer, 7:05 pm.
Hyphen takes the hill tonight, looking to build on the strong finish he had to the end of the 2009 season. This is a pretty good match-up for him, as a strike-throwing pitch to contact guy against a bad offense in a big park. We should actually get to see Gutierrez and Ichiro get involved defensively tonight, after a couple of boring days for the outfielders.
Offensively, we go back to the opening day line-up with an RHP on the hill.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Kotchman, 1B
Bradley, LF
Griffey, DH
Lopez, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Johnson, C
Wilson, SS