Sweeney to DL
To make room for Erik Bedard on the roster, the M’s placed Mike Sweeney on the DL. That gives them a 13 man pitching staff for tonight. Now, it looks like they’ll option Vargas out after his start tomorrow to bring up a backup first baseman (hello, Chris Shelton) for the Texas series, with Olson moving to the pen. Vargas will get some starts in Tacoma to keep sharp while the team goes to a four man rotation until July 25, as outlined in the post below.
Reason For Optimism
Due to the all-star break and a well timed off day, this is the Mariner rotation for the next three weeks.
Bedard
Vargas
Felix
Morrow
Washburn
Bedard
Off
Off
Off
Washburn
Felix
Bedard
Morrow
Off
Washburn
Felix
Bedard
Morrow
They won’t start Felix in the first game after the break if he pitches in the ASG, so that’s why Washburn is slotted into that spot, if you’re wondering. Still, over the next 14 games, the Mariners are scheduled to get four starts from Bedard, three starts from Felix/Washburn/Morrow, and one from Vargas. You’ll probably see Olson optioned to Triple-A today to make room for Bedard, because the M’s are going to be able to go with a four man rotation for the next few weeks.
This helps in several ways, even beyond the obvious of having better pitchers on the mound more often. The four man rotation will allow them to use Vargas out of the pen this weekend against Texas and in the Cleveland series, which will give the bullpen a lefty and an extra arm, so the concerns about overworking the bullpen will be minimized for the next few weeks. It also gives the M’s the ability to have Olson working in Triple-A as a starter, so he can be ready to step right into the rotation if Bedard or Washburn are traded.
If they can get the bats to keep hitting, this could be a fun couple of weeks.
A Winning Formula
Ridiculously Good Command + Flyball Lefty + Safeco Field + Terrific Outfield Defense = Awesome.
Congratulations, Jarrod. That was one well pitched game.
Congratulations, Death To Flying Things and his two wingmen. You guys rock.
Congratulations, Safeco Field. You might be picky, but at least you know how to reward those you like.
Game 82, Orioles at Mariners
Welcome back, guys!
SP-R Bergesen v Tradebait Washburn
Handy bullpen reference chart that took surprisingly long to build because I wanted to write in CSS
| Who | 7/3 | 7/4 | 7/5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aardsma | — | 10 | — |
| Batista | — | — | 19 |
| Corcoran | — | 17 | — |
| Jakubauskas | 28 | — | — |
| Kelley | 12 | — | — |
| Lowe | 26 | — | 15 |
| White | 13 | — | 20 |
Return of Bedard unlikely to help pen
Starts of 7+ innings, 2007: 14 of 28
Starts of 7+ innings, 2008: 4 of 15
Starts of 7+ innings, 2009: 2 of 11
The M’s Should Not Trade For A Third Baseman
The 5-4 road trip, the latter portion coming with Adrian Beltre on the disabled list, can’t be construed as anything other than a huge success. No one thinks this is a great team, but they just played ball with three of the best teams in baseball, on the road, and didn’t embarrass themselves. Yes, there was some bounces going their way, but they put themselves in the position to have those lucky breaks translate into wins in a stretch of games where getting blown out early and often wouldn’t have been much of a shock.
Given the strong performance and the team’s place in the standings, just 3 1/2 games behind both Anaheim and Texas, the organization has ample reason to focus on improving the team they’re putting on the field and giving the 2009 team a chance to make a run at the playoffs. And, realistically, it’s pretty easy to identify the glaring weakness on this team right now. Chris Woodward seems like a nice enough guy, but when he’s your starting third baseman, you have a problem. Considering the M’s inconsistent production (or just total lack thereof) at other positions, they can’t afford to punt third base in a playoff race. Woodward has to be replaced if this team really wants to try to make a push for the AL West title.
That fact, obvious to most everyone, has led to speculation about which third baseman the Mariners could possibly acquire. Names tossed around include Mark Teahen, Garrett Atkins, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ty Wigginton, and Blake DeWitt, as fans and reporters alike try to come up with some possible options for the club. For most people, the discussion simply comes down to which 3B the M’s should go after, but I’m of the belief that the best option is none of the above.
Making a move for a third baseman would provide an upgrade over Chris Woodward and improve the team’s ability to stay afloat while Adrian Beltre is on the shelf. I don’t disagree with any of that. However, what do you do with New Guy if Beltre is able to come back in September? Or, even better, what do you do with New Guy if the M’s actually pull this thing off and make it to the playoffs? There’s not a third baseman available in trade that you’d want in the line-up over a healthy Adrian Beltre, or even Beltre at 80% of his normal abilities. At that point, you’ve given up some presumably valuable asset(s) to help you for the next ~7 weeks and then improve your bench for the final month/playoffs. Meanwhile, the guy lining up next to Beltre would still be Ronny Cedeno or Yuniesky Betancourt.
That’s the real hole – shortstop. The M’s don’t have a single major league quality starting shortstop in the organization. Cedeno’s flashed the leather the last few weeks like we hoped he would earlier in the year, but there’s still too many problems with his offensive production to look at him as a real solution. Yuni, we’ve talked about to death. On a team trying to contend, both of these guys are bench players.
If we’re going to accept the premise that this team should be bolstering the roster for a run this year (for the purpose of this post, we are), we have to look beyond August 31st. The team only has so many trade chips that will bring them back assets in return, and using one or more of them to acquire a guy who may not have a full-time job for the last month of the season and any October baseball could be a mistake.
The team has to replace Woodward, but they don’t have to do it by acquiring a third baseman. Instead, if the team is going to aggressively pursue an upgrade on the roster, I’d suggest that shortstop is the position to target. If you can make a deal that brings back an SS, you still replace Woodward, but you do it by shifting Lopez to third and Cedeno/Yuni to second.
The starting 2B/3B/SS, in either scenario, will be Lopez-Cedeno/Betancourt-New Guy. How those players are deployed is the issue. And I’d argue that with Beltre potentially returning for September and beyond, it is in the organization’s best interests to make sure that New Guy can play next to Adrian down the stretch, rather than being displaced by him. You don’t want to give up assets for a two month player if you can get a three month (plus playoffs) player instead.
Thankfully for the Mariners, there are a pretty decent selection of shortstops who potentially could be acquired by the M’s. There’s a couple high rent district guys who would cost a lot but could also be terrific acquisitions (J.J. Hardy and Reid Brignac), the veteran rent-a-player option (Jack Wilson), and a trio of need-a-change-of-scenery players (Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Yunel Escobar, the latter two of whom could potentially play third until Beltre came back, then shift over to shortstop).
Any possible deal involving Hardy or Brignac is going to cost you Erik Bedard (and then some), so he’d have to be lights out in his two starts this week in order to facilitate a move. More realistically, Wilson would cost significantly less in talent to acquire, thanks to his contract and the Pirates perpetual rebuilding phase, while providing a really good glove guy who isn’t an automatic out. The last three are all questionable gloves at short, but they have a track record of hitting well enough to make up for it – how much the M’s should give up for a guy who might have to move off the position after 2009 is a legitimate question, but they provide options at least.
The worst thing the M’s can do right now is overreact to the road trip and make the easy move that doesn’t help them enough for 2009 and costs them talent for 2010 and beyond. If they’re going to make a move to improve this club for the stretch run, it should be a move that can help them through the rest of the season, even after a potential Beltre return, and in an ideal world it would be a player with some value to this club in 2010 as well.
Replace Woodward, yes, but replace him with a shortstop.
Minor League Wrap (6/29-7/5/09)
Overall, the system is treading water at the moment, so save for the fact that the D-Jaxx are leading their division now, we’re waiting on draft picks before things start to really get interesting throughout. But Tui is back in the batter’s box and KAHN is back on the mound, and those are both gains for us.
To the jump!
Read more
Game 81, Mariners at Red Sox
Morrow vs Lester, 10:35 am.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Sweeney, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Langerhans, LF
Johjima, C
Woodward, 3B
Cedeno, SS
For all intents and purposes, Ryan Langerhans is the Mariners starting left fielder until further notice. This is the fourth game he’s started in a row, and the second of which the opposing pitcher has been left-handed. Wak has made it pretty clear that he just hasn’t been very impressed with Wladimir Balentien, and really, if Balentien can’t get into the line-up against a lefty in a day game before a cross country flight, then he’s basically out of the plan.
So, Langerhans looks like he’s going to get a real shot to prove what he can do. Welcome to the club, Ryan. Feel free to keep whacking the baseball as long as you’d like.
The value of showing up
“[Napoleon] had a two-part plan.â€
“What was it?â€
“First was show up. We’ll see what happens.â€
“That was his plan.â€
“Yup.â€
“Against the Russian army.â€
“Yup.â€
“First we show up, then we see what happens.â€
“Yup.â€
“Almost hard to believe he lost.”
— another Sports Night quote
The M’s are going to make like Napolean. And if they lose, it’ll still be the right play.
No matter the outcome tomorrow morning they’ll have pulled a win out of this road trip by staying in contention while playing the Yankees and Red Sox. In the last week, their playoff chances have dramatically improved. Looking at the AL East, it’s pretty clear the division title’s going to be the only way into the post-season dance, but the division title requires them to climb over two teams.
Dave’s talked a little in recent weeks about players the team can target (like Langerhans!) to improve their chances, and I want to take a little larger view here. With two teams at 43 wins already, for the M’s to take the pennant they’re going to need to bank 90 wins. There’s a chance at 85, sure. If the team does nothing, they can still luck into it. All they have to do is stay close. With Beltre out, though, their chance is probably 10%. To stay in the middle of the fray, and be able to take advantage of any opportunities if the other teams stumble, they will have to make some pickups before the trade deadline.
The great thing about the M’s as currently built is we can see how you get there.
Two things they have to do:
They need a shortstop. Gambling on a miraculous appearance of super-Yuni won’t do it. Dave suggested Jack Wilson, Nick Punto, and Reid Brignac in this post. Put someone average in there and you get another win at least in the second half. Put someone good in there… oh yeah.
They need a third baseman. I’m not betting on Beltre’s return this year, and crossing my fingers and wishing really hard isn’t going to help. I’m still all wished out on the illusory 2007 run at contention. If you’re willing to take a below-average glove, you go after the last year of Aubrey Huff’s deal, or see how far in the doghouse Garrett Atkins is. Or check pre-season USSM-suggested gamble Andy Marte, currently hitting .323/.363/.543 in Columbus) (and that I’m even throwing these out there is a measure of how wince-inducing this problem is).
And the problem here is if you’re trying to improve the team, you have to get to Beltre production to stay even. Which means they need to patch here and improve elsewhere.
How much do these upgrades cost? In some of these, taking on salary might make the cost in young talent much less. Jack Wilson’s being paid $7m this year, and while the team’s got a 2010 option, the Pirates are in last place (and making bad trades). Huff’s $8m in payroll. Atkins is on a one-year arbitration-avoiding deal for $7m. The M’s are still drawing, though not as well. Proving they’re in contention, particularly that they’re turning this thing around, might be hugely valuable in keeping the season ticket sales up for next year, when they can put back-to-back years together and show this isn’t a 2007-style luck-fest. It might make it worth trying even if they don’t make it into the playoffs, which is like hitting the jackpot.
And as Dave’s suggested, trading off Bedard or Washburn could hugely improve the team now and help not give up the players who might help contend in two or three years.
Then we have less-pressing needs. Jose Lopez isn’t helping, but finding an upgrade there may be too costly. They desperately need a right-handed DH platoon for Griffey, preferably one that can hit a little, because Sweeney has done nothing all year to give anyone reason to believe he can still play. You can fix that with Chris Shelton, or any number of other candidates. Sweeney’s by all accounts a great guy, but character’s not hitting and the offense sucks. If you can upgrade on Griffey, that’d be nice too, but he’s way down on the priority list.
The offense needs it. They’re not going to win a pennant with a .316 on-base percentage. And neither is Texas at .317. The AL average offense so far is scoring 4.8 runs a game and the M’s are at 4. The LAAoA are scoring over five. Even considering Safeco’s park effects, that’s too much. It’s almost like the M’s are spotting the other team a runner on third for the start of every game, all year long.
What’s particularly good about this is none of the holes they have to plug are hard to confront. It’s not like telling Ichiro! he can’t play any more, and Yuni and Lopez don’t have such large contracts there’ll be pressure to keep them out there.
So let’s say in July they find an average third baseman somewhere, an average shortstop, and a decent RH bat. The offense gets a little better, the defense gets a little better (swapping Beltre for an average glove, Yuni for an average glove), and the cost shouldn’t be too dear.
That’s showing up. Patch a couple holes, gut it out.
If they seriously want to make a push and target the division, the team has to get a lot better than even that. They need a good third baseman, a good shortstop, a good second baseman, a big DH upgrade, and they might look at a catcher. At the same time they’ll probably need to upgrade the starting rotation at least in one spot.
And the price tag there is potentially huge. We can argue about who you can throw in at each positions who might be adequate, but the list of players who can make enough of a difference in a half-season is a lot smaller, and most of those aren’t available at any reasonable cost. You can get Langerhans for Mike Morse, but David Wright doesn’t come for a hundred of them.
The team’s finally setting up for a long run at contention and this season’s success is only the first fruit. I’d love to see them get into the playoffs, but I’d much rather watch the team exercise patience, continue to improve, and make a legitimate run at a World Series win in the future. This year, I’m all for paying a small price to stay in this, rather than make the kind of mistakes we’ve seen the franchise make lately in chasing contention at so high a cost. And staying in it might prove enough.
Game 80, Mariners at Red Sox
Olson vs Penny, 10:05 am.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Griffey, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Langerhans, LF
Johjima, C
Woodward, 3B
Cedeno, SS