It’s Time
A couple of years ago, Yuniesky Betancourt was a valuable asset. At age 25, he’d established an offensive level of ability that made him an okay hitter for a middle infielder and he’d flashed defensive abilities that few others possessed. In 2006 and 2007, he was worth +1.7 wins per year, making him essentially a league average player. When you have a league average player on the roster making next to nothing, you should be satisfied.
The Mariners should no longer be satisfied with Yuniesky Betancourt. His offensive abilities haven’t really changed while his defense took an absolute nose dive last year. This has all been well chronicled, of course. Betancourt was worth just +0.3 wins last year, making him essentially a bench level player. Given Betancourt’s struggles in ’08 and the team’s lack of depth at SS, the M’s went out and traded for Ronny Cedeno. Both Jack Zduriencik and Don Wakamatsu spoke about challenging Betancourt to improve on the areas of the game that he’s weakest, and they spent a significant amount of time working with Yuni during spring training.
It hasn’t worked at all.
Despite the lectures about patience and adopting a better approach at the plate, Yuni’s spent the first two weeks of 2009 hacking away more than ever. He’s swung at 46% of the pitches he’s been thrown that were outside of the strike zone – the fifth highest total in the majors. He hasn’t drawn a walk yet and continues to get himself out on pitches he has no business swinging at. Every at-bat is like a giant middle finger to efforts to get him to improve. But that’s not a big shock, honestly – Yuni’s never struck anyone as the most teachable guy around, and significant improvements in plate discipline are pretty rare.
But, there was still some hope for his defense. Despite the suckfest that was 2008, it was the only year he’s been a total disaster in the field. In 2007, his UZR was -1.1 in 1,300 innings. That’s basically league average. League average defense from Yuni makes him a decent player again. That’s not too much to ask, right?
Apparently, it is. We all saw the train wreck that was Betancourt’s defense last week, as balls rolled into center field that should have been routine outs. His UZR for last week was -2.8, by the way. Yea. He was an absolute abomination in the field, whether you go by your eyes or advanced defensive numbers. Just ridiculously bad. And, of course, he booted a couple more balls today. Improvement? Hardly. He actually appears to be getting worse.
If we extrapolate Betancourt’s performance so far out over a full 2009 season, he’d finish the season as a -1.1 win player. And everyone who has watched him knows it.
The team is 8-5 and off to a terrific start, but this is not a time to rest on your laurels and play the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” crap. The Mariners shortstop is broken, and he apparently refuses to let anyone fix him. It’s time to give Ronny Cedeno some regular playing time at shortstop. They’ve tried encouragement, coddling, motivation, threats… at this point, the only thing left is a stint on the bench.
The AL West is not good. The M’s are a flawed team that has a chance to contend despite some glaring problems with the roster. Some of them, they can’t do anything about, but this is one that they can. Yuni entered the year with a play-better-or-fear-for-your-job ultimatum, and he’s responded by taking a dump on the field. The M’s have an alternative, and it’s time they used him.
Newer Slimmer Carlos Silva’s missing sinker
Ignore the possible issues with Gameday’s pitch classification. What about the fact that Silva’s sinker is exactly the same pitch as his fastball? Does it matter if he mixes them if they produce the same results?
Here’s some graphs off my new favorite tool, the BrooksBaseball PitchFX Tool
Carlos Silva’s sinker is indistinguishable from his fastball, if we grant that he even throws two pitches. He’s playing rock-paper-scissors with rock, rock, and rock.
Not that that kind of clustering is at all unusual. Here’s what a pitcher who can throw a sinker looks like:
That’s Webb, of course, in a stellar start. I recommend checking out all of those graphs for a neat compare-and-contrast against Silva’s start today.
Webb’s got a better spread of movement, and a secondary pitch that’s clearly different. Silva doesn’t. Check out, say, that colorcoded break chart. You can see that not only does Webb get more varied movement and have two distinct, different pitches while Silva’s pretty much throwing the same speed and getting the same break.
If you didn’t know what Silva was supposedly throwing, and you eyeballed his break chart (see this rough reference guide), you’d think he was throwing nothing but two-seam fastballs. Looking at Webb, an actual sinkerballer, he’s getting the kind of movement you’d associate with a changeup… at 90mph.
So you’re thinking “that’s not fair, comparing Silva to Webb”. And it’s not, because Webb is good, but beyond that, pick any effective sinkerball pitcher and look at what they’re throwing. They’re getting better movement and throw at least two distinct pitches.
Silva has one pitch, and it’s hittable. I don’t care if he’s got nine grips or arm actions or whatever: they results are all the same. Maybe he should try something else. Like retiring.
I know, I’m bitter. I just watched him pitch, you should sympathize.
Game 13, started by the unlucky Carlos Silva
Our manager continues his quest to provide interesting, strange lineups. Behind Newer, Slimmer Carlos Silva today:
RF-L Ichiro
LF-L Chavez
DH-L Griffey Jr.
3B-R Beltre
1B-R Lopez
SS-R Betancourt
C-R Burke
2B-R Cedeno
CF-R Gutierrez
Detroit goes
CF-L Granderson
2B-R Polanco
RF-R Ordonez
1B-R Cabrera
DH-R Guillen
3B-R inge
LF-L Anderson
SS-B Santiago
C-R Treanor
Silva’s pitch distribution so far
It has been noted throughout the blogosphere that Silva has thrown roughly 85 percent fastballs this year. That is not a surprise. It realIy shouldn’t be, because he’s a sinkerball specialist and a sinker is a variation of the fastball. At least, that’s how it gets measured. As a fastball.
I don’t know who’s claiming he throws 85% straight fastballs. But it’s identified/measured/whatever as a “sinker”.
See:
April 8th 23 fastballs, 61 sinkers.
April 14 41 fastballs, 37 sinkers
Sean White’s Transformation
If you were around in 2007, you probably remember Sean White less than fondly. He posted a 5.45 FIP out of the bullpen that year, walking more than he struck out and showing no kind of out pitch. His claim to fame was a sinker that averaged 90 MPH, but the stuff and command were both relatively underwhelming. He didn’t really impress in Tacoma last year, either, and was basically just organizational fodder to eat minor league innings.
Now, though, something’s clicked – with the shift back to the bullpen, he’s found new life on his fastball. Pitch F/x had his hardest fastball last night at 95.7 MPH, and his average fastball was 94.
He’s now throwing a serious power sinker, and that’s a pretty nasty weapon coming out of the pen. There’s a reason he’s running an 82% GB% through his first two appearances. You throw 94 with sink, and people aren’t going to be able to do much more than pound it into the ground.
Welcome back to Seattle, Sean White. I might actually like you this time around.
Game 12, Tigers at Mariners
Bedard vs Jackson, 6:05 pm.
Ichiro, RF
Chavez, LF
Griffey, DH
Beltre, 3B
Sweeney, 1B (seriously?)
Lopez, 2B
Johnson, C
Betancourt, stand around and day dream
Death To Flying Things, CF
Wakamatsu Likes To Bunt
As I’m sure you’ve all noticed, the Mariners are bunting more this year, as part of Don Wakamatsu’s effort to get the team to play a different style of offense. With a sub-par lineup, he has less incentive to let guys swing away, and so the team has turned to small ball in the first few weeks of the season.
But we’re not just bunting more than we used to – we’re bunting more than anyone else used to, either. Take a look at the AL Leaderboard for bunts. The Mariners have laid down 13 bunts so far this year, 22% of the entire American League total. The Twins are second with seven bunts. They haven’t always been sacrifice attempts, as we saw with the Gutierrez squeeze last night and the Chavez bunt the day before, but the M’s still lead the league in sac bunts with nine. The Angels are second in the league… with four.
The Mariners are on pace to lay down 191 bunts this year, 133 of which would be sacrifices. Last year, the Twins laid down 182 bunts to lead the league, but only 52 of those were sacrifice bunts, and the second most frequent bunters were the Royals with 106 attempts (and only 32 sac bunts). The Twins center fielder, Carlos Gomez, laid down 73 bunts by himself, and almost all of them were of the bunt-for-a-hit variety. The two bunt happy franchises last year were not moving runners over, but were trying to get themselves on base.
In the American League last year, the average team laid down 34 sacrifice bunts. At their current pace, the M’s will match that sometime in May.
This is small ball on steroids. The Mariners are bunting circles around the rest of the American League. It’s exciting for fans to watch, especially when the team is winning, but it’s not a very good long term offensive strategy. I’ve been impressed by a lot of the things that Wak has done, but if there’s one thing that we’d have to consider something of a concern through 11 games, this is it.
Felix, Verlander
From Brooks Baseball pitch f/x:
Verlander: 77 FB, 4 CH, 25 CB
Felix: 69 FB, 8 SI, 5 SL, 22 CB
Game FELIX DAY I mean 11, Tigers at Mariners
I can’t wait for lineups to be posted, it’s Felix Day! Felix v Verlander. I have a bold and doomed prediction: Felix will throw 100% fastballs.
Two questions: how many pitches before I’m proved wrong, and how far off will I end up — 20%? 10%?
Vlad Guerrero Out Two Months
Vladimir Guerrero’s MRI revealed a torn pectoral muscle, and the doctors said he’ll be re-examined in a month. Which means he’s out for two, probably.
I don’t know how many more things have to go right for the M’s before people start to realize that this division is up grabs. The Angels season has been nothing short of a train wreck, and their already weak line-up just got worse.
It’s a race to 85 wins. There’s no reason to think that the M’s can’t be right there at the wire.