Annoyance threshold reached
I’m tossing the next person to mention Lincecum. I’m not kidding.
Previewing the Minor Leagues
Salutations.
For those of you who don’t know me, I’m Jay Yencich. I’ve been following the Mariners’ minor league system for the past eight years and covering it for the past five, first on blogspot and on Scout.com with Joe Kaiser and Jason Churchill, and most recently on the MVN network. Five years is a long time in the minor leagues, enough to span entire careers and then some in many cases. Over the time I’ve been a fan, I’ve never lacked for things to write about. Of course, part of that is the around 850 games played last year by M’s affiliates alone, but there are other storylines as well.
I’ve observed three changes each in GM and scouting director, all with varying priorities for the international and domestic domains. I’ve witnessed the signing and failing of the first ever prospects from China and Russia, and I’ve seen the Mariners expand their scouting domain to include El Salvador, Taiwan, and Korea, as well as less common baseball places like Brazil and South Africa. I’ve read translations of scouting reports in at least six different languages. I’ve cheered as work visas for international players were reclassified from seasonal workers to entertainers. I’ve hunted down various sources when you couldn’t get a box score for the Arizona League, let alone the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues. I’ve watched as the draft-and-follow process ended and the new compensation system began. I’ve covered all fifty rounds of one draft (never again) and found enough information to write a paragraph about each player the M’s drafted.
I remember when Ryan Anderson was the Mariners top prospect.
The point is that, if you care to watch, there’s always something going on in the minors, whether it’s as simple as the development of a top prospect or as groundbreaking as a new market of talent emerging. Along the way, you get accustomed to other sights as well, such as an infielder who used to play pick-up with cardboard glove watching his first dizzy bat race between innings or the latest developments in the field of t-shirt propulsion. Dave asked me to come on so I could bring some of that to you guys on a weekly basis with snapshots of what’s going on. For daily updates, breaking news as it happens, and more bulky analytical posts, you can find me at my current home at Mariner Minors on MVN, linked up on the sidebar, but once a week, usually Monday, I’ll be here to talk shop and cover some of the recent happenings.
In the meantime, here are the top five prospects to watch on each roster for the teams starting up tomorrow.
Tacoma Rainiers (Triple-A)
C Jeff Clement
1B Mike Carp
LHP Garret Olson
LHP Jason Vargas
OF Mike Wilson
(Tui bumps one of the last two off when he comes down)
West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (Double-A)
IF Carlos Triunfel
OF Gregory Halman
C Adam Moore
RH Josh Fields
RH Stephen Kahn
High Desert Mavericks (Advanced-A)
RH Phillippe Aumont
RH Michael Pineda
RH Juan Carlos Ramirez
CF Tyson Gillies
LH Edward Paredes/RH Nathan Adcock
Clinton Lumberkings (Intermediate-A)
SS Mario Martinez
RH Brett Lorin
RH Aaron Pribanic
RH Stephen Hensley
CF Daniel Carroll
Rehabbing, MIA, or Not in Full-Season
CF Michael Saunders
RH Maikel Cleto
RF/1B Dennis Raben
3B Jharmidy deJesus
1B Gerardo Avila
I’ll be hanging around today to answer general questions, should the need arise. For more detail than you require on the rosters, I have some preview posts up in my usual haunt.
Game Two Thoughts
The end sucked. We’ll get to that in a second.
So, you know how I mentioned that we’d get a decent idea of whether Bedard is healthy from his velocity and the movement on his curveball? He’s healthy. That curveball was just sick. Forget the ERA – that’s the stuff the M’s were expecting last year. Whether he can continue to stay healthy is obviously up in the air, but for right now, enjoy having two all-star starters back to back.
Gutierrez continues to impress with his approach at the plate. He’s doing a great job of laying off pitches out of the zone and making them throw him something he can handle. So far, our new CF has been nothing but aces.
Chuck Merriwether needed more time in spring training, apparently.
Amy’s comment after seeing Betancourt slide into home safely: “Did the fat guy just score?”
Roy Corcoran – exhibit 8,413 that spring training performances don’t mean much. That was as good as I’ve ever seen him.
Aardsma, on the other hand, had about as bad a 1-2-3 inning as you can have. Let’s just say that his fastball command still needs some work.
Speaking of fastball command, Brandon Morrow… that wasn’t much fun to watch. This isn’t new, of course – Morrow doesn’t have a career BB/9 of six for nothing. He didn’t have much of a spring training, and he’s still working out the kinks. Hopefully it doesn’t take long.
And, finally, the decision to replace him with Batista. Our first chance to really second guess Wak, but this is what it is. I mentioned in the strengths and weaknesses post the other day that his options in the pen are “bad command, worse command, or horrible command”. This is the downside of having a bullpen full of live arms who struggle to throw strikes. Should he have stuck with Morrow? Maybe, but of course, people would be calling for his head if that didn’t work either. At the time of the move, it was a coinflip – the guy who can’t throw strikes and didn’t get a real spring training or the washed up veteran who doesn’t have an out pitch?
It would have been nice to start off 2-0. But, don’t go overboard – it’s still just one game.
Game 2, M’s at Twins
5:10. Eric “The Interview” Bedard versus Nick “About to get cuffed around” Blackburn.
Griffey, as promised, moves to DH. Chavez takes over in left, and Balentien in right.
1. Chavez, LF
2. Gutierrez, CF
3. Griffey, DH
4. Beltre, 3B
5. Branyan, 1B
6. Lopez, 2B
7. Johjima, C
8. Balentien, RF
9. Betancourt, SS
Why Tonight Is More Important Than Last Night
Having the team win the first game of the season, with Felix pitching well and Junior going yard, was certainly a good thing. Not just for the win column, but also because it helps beat back the pre-written narrative that this team is in for a bad year. But, as nice as it was to start off 1-0, I’d suggest that tonight’s game is more important for the M’s. Why?
Erik Bedard is pitching.
Honestly, no one has a great feel for what Bedard’s 2009 season is going to look like. Two years ago, he was as good a pitcher as anyone in baseball. Last year, he was mediocre and injured (the former likely due to the latter), and while he says he’s healthy, actions speak louder than words. You could construct realistic scenarios where Bedard is worth anything between one and five wins to the Mariners this year, and that four win spread is larger than with any other player on the roster.
If Bedard is healthy and goes back to being something like the Baltimore version that the team thought they were trading for, we should see some signs of it tonight. The Twins line-up vs lefties is even more lackluster than what they threw at Felix last night, so a 100% healthy Erik Bedard should be able to cruise through the Twins without too many problems. If he’s popping 93 on the radar gun and getting swings and misses with his curve, there will be legitimate reasons to get excited. Bedard is the biggest variable on the roster, and tonight, we get our first look at which way that pendulum might swing.
Game One Thoughts
Always good to start with a win. Here are some thoughts from the season opener.
The Twins offense isn’t very good, especially without Joe Mauer. Felix pitched well tonight, but I thought he got away with quite a bit too.
I really liked Gutierrez’s approach at the plate in his first two at-bats, but the swings they ended on were meager. It was nice to see him get some loft on the home run swing. I’m pretty sure he’s going to to be the guy I’m begging the world to notice this year. He’s got underrated asset written all over him.
Beltre is so good defensively – that backhand play he made down the line was sick. I’d personally chip in towards his contract extension if we could convince him to stick around.
Griffey going yard just seemed fitting. In the spirit of positivity, I won’t say anything about his range on that Punto fly ball.
The M’s aren’t going to score 75% of their baserunners this year. You’ll hear someone refer to this as the blueprint for how the M’s will have to win games, I’m sure, but counting on getting six runs out of eight base runners isn’t any kind of successful strategy.
1-0, tied for first atop the AL West. Bedard goes tomorrow. So far so good.
Game 1, Felix versus Twins
Opening Day, Felix Day. 5:05. Lineups are out early and so here’s the game thread.
LF-L Chavez
CF-R Gutierrez
DH-R Sweeney
3B-R Beltre
RF-L Griffey
2B-R Lopez
1B-L Branyan
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
The Twins have some jerks. I don’t know that it’ll matter, what with Felix pitching.
Dave adds: Wooooooooooooooooooooooo!
Better News
Yea, the Aumont thing was a pretty big wet blanket, but still…
Happy Opening Felix Day!
True, but…
“There’s no such thing, in the big leagues, as too much depth at any position,” Zduriencik said.
Mariners Depth Chart:
Right-Handed Relievers:
Brandon Morrow
Mark Lowe
David Aardsma
Shawn Kelley
Roy Corcoran
Miguel Batista
Chris Jakubauskas
Randy Messenger
Chad Cordero
Josh Fields
Jesus Delgado
Luis Pena
Marwin Vega
Stephen Kahn
Eric Hull
Right-Handed Starting Pitchers:
Felix Hernandez
Carlos Silva
Gaby Hernandez
I think it’s fairly easy to argue that the Mariners currently have a surplus of right-handed relievers and a remarkable shortage of right-handed starting pitchers. Moving Aumont to the bullpen doesn’t give the team more depth – it just moves organizational depth from an area of scarcity to an area of abundance. Okay, it accelerates Aumont’s path to the majors, but the marginal increase in value added by having Aumont on the roster as a reliever is extremely low. Trying to get right-handed relievers to the majors more quickly simply should not be an organizational goal right now.
Sure, there are scenarios where this pays off. Maybe Morrow can’t find his insulin pump, Lowe’s arm falls off again, Aardsma proves he’ll never be able to throw strikes consistently, Kelley gets exposed as a righty specialist, Fields doesn’t develop any command, Cordero’s shoulder problems persist, Pena, Delgado, and Kahn all flame out as big armed Triple-A guys, and the team finds itself badly in need of a relief ace to help push the team over the top down the stretch of a pennant race that miraculously occurred in spite of the total implosion of the bullpen. And maybe I’ll win the lotto tomorrow, buy the team, and order this move rescinded. Both scenarios are about equally probable.
The whole point of stockpiling live armed, no cost relievers all winter was so that you could build a bullpen without using significant assets. I’m all for organizational depth, but this is just robbing Peter of his mortgage money so Paul can order everyone a round at the Met.
After Felix, the cupboard of right-handed major league starting pitching is barren. Meanwhile, the M’s could have an entire bullpen of guys who threw 95+ if they wanted. They could almost have two entire bullpens stocked with flamethrowers!
Yes, Phillippe Aumont might be one of those guys whose stuff plays up in relief and his most valuable role is as a reliever. But that’s a decision for after he’s failed as a starter, which he hasn’t done yet. This is short-sighted, and while it’s okay to experiment, feel free to call this one off at any time. The organization needs Aumont as a potential starter in 2011 a lot more than they need him as a potential reliever in 2010.
New Front Office Trying To Make Us Stop Saying Nice Things
For the last couple of weeks, I’d heard some rumblings that the team was going to use Phillippe Aumont as a reliever this year in order to manage his workload. He only threw 50 innings last year before he developed some arm problems, and they didn’t want him taking a huge jump up overnight.
Today, though, Baker has some really scary quotes from Zduriencik about this being more than a workload managing thing.
“We felt that this was a guy, who, if used in a relief role, could be on a real fast-track to the major leagues,” he said. “And we’re talking a real fast track.”
If Baker’s right, and the relief work in 2009 is permanent, the M’s will have used three consecutive first round picks on relief pitchers – Morrow, Aumont, and Fields. Relief pitchers are the least valuable commodity in baseball.
Let’s hope that there’s some wires crossed somewhere and Aumont hasn’t been pigeonholed as a reliever just yet…
Baker with a followup and some new quotes. The key one for me is “Nothing is carved in stone. This is an experiment we’re doing to see if we can get him to the big leagues quicker.” While that still makes this an experiment I’m not particularly fond of, it’s a lot different than “his days as a starter are over”. So, now, we just have to hope that the major league relievers outperform expectations and that Aumont goes back to starting in the second half of the year.