Community projections: Jose Guillen
Community Projection: .269/.325/.445, 454 AB, 122 H, 24 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 27 BB, 89 K, 10 HBP
High: .295/.369/.545
Low: .150/.190/.263
Dave: ?
Me: .268/.323/.430
Jose Guillen was bound to be one of the most interesting projections. Out for most of last year, and not hitting when he was around, he’s a reclamation project at 31. But his previous two years, you got nice seasons out of him (.294/.352/.497 and .283/.338/.479). Projections are fairly narrow (average .260-.273, OBP .327-.332, SLG .449-.468) and they all seem to think he’ll only get ~400 ABs.
We’ve seen that in general projections have been on the high end, predicting improvements for players, but here Guillen’s community projection is high on playing time and low on performance.
AL average right fielder, 2006: .286/.348/.465
Jose Guillen projection, 2007: .269/.325/.445
In Safeco, that’s not bad, but it is still a chunk below average.
Mike Hargrove… Sigh
Via Geoff Baker’s blog, here’s today’s blatently wrong comment from the team’s manager:
“You don’t see a lot of power hitters have good batting averages,” Hargrove said. “You really don’t. Barry Bonds comes along not very often. Usually, when you see a guy hit for power, something has to be sacrificed. And it’s usually average. It always amazes me watching people get criticized — all the bitching and moaning about a guy who’s hitting 39 home runs and hits .240. Come on!
46 major league batters had a slugging percentage of .500 or higher last year, making them something of a power hitter. As a group, their batting average was… .298. 21 of the 46 hit .300 or better. The only guys who hit lower than .260 were Jason Giambi, Troy Glaus, and Pat Burrell. And, of course, those three all were among the league leaders in walks, making up for their low batting averages and still getting on base at a healthy clip.
So, no, Mike, it’s not rare at all. It’s actually pretty common.
It’s a shame that the man who runs the Mariners lacks basic knowledge about the game.
Guillen’s heavy, but not heavy bad, Ichiro fallout, catchers bruised
Ichiro! fallout as Hargrove says it won’t be a distraction (PI notebook). Vidro’s taking balls in the infield. Don’t think about it too much, it burns the brain. Also, Jose Guillen is a little heavy, but that doesn’t matter:
“He’s a little heavier than he would like and we would like,” Hargrove said. “We’ve got plenty of time. We’re not worried about it. He’s in great baseball shape and we’re just trying to take a few pounds off.”
Such great shape that they want him to lose 5% of his body weight.
Ted Miller in the PI offers this baffling paragraph on Ichiro:
Lucky for him a divorce and new start is possible via free agency. The only choice for fans is to scratch their eyeballs out and run screaming through the streets if the home team is impaled by the rest of the American League West for a fourth consecutive season.
That’s a sort of… weird set of images to put together in two sentences. Moving on, time to make ding Ichiro for not having a great relationship with the press.
The breaking news Tuesday wasn’t so much that Ichiro is contemplating bolting Seattle but that he spoke about it openly and clearly — through an interpreter, of course — and without the haikus, riddles and circular responses he typically employs.
…
What, no musing about a metaphoric tree with neglected roots, see his 2006 All-Star Game media session?
Here’s the thing. I know Ichiro’s not all Ibanez/Bloomquist/Dan Wilson/whoever, happy to hand out warmed over cliches after every game. He’s been extremely reluctant to criticize the team, from incompetent manager to the lack of effort or talent by his teammates, and when he’s even approached it, it’s been extremely circumspect.
If the story here is the contrast of Ichiro making more open statements that can clearly be read as discontent, there’s a story. What’s the point in making fun of him? When has he ever spoken in haiku? Or riddles? Here’s your haiku.
Ted Miller column
wafts in with gentle spring breeze
wince at acrid smell
What’s more, if you’re interested at all in looking harder at this, you can find many examples where Ichiro’s taken intelligent questions and given careful, articulate answers that provide insight and offer a glimpse into his thinking. For instance, take David Shields’ excellent (and really long) interview with Ichiro, which unfortunately is now behind a registration wall, he talks at length about a variety of interesting baseball thoughts.
Is that it, then? Is it that Ichiro says “It was a fly ball, I caught it,” delivering a flat understated answer to a flat question? That he doesn’t instead say “well that was a really well hit ball and when I saw it come off the bat I knew it was going to be close and I ran as hard as I could and I almost ran out of room but I was lucky enough to get there and put my glove up to make the play”?
Why then bring up haikus? Is Ichiro cryptic to Miller, like a short poem? But that’s in the riddles. Is it because the haiku is Japanese? I don’t understand this column, or why the column goes that far to tweak Ichiro for something he clearly doesn’t deserve.
Moving on. I guess the PI is still refusing to wire Jim Moore money to get back from Florida, because he’s continuing to locate and hassle former Mariners. Today it’s Eddie Guardado. Isn’t there something we can do? Buy him a bus ticket, anything?
Geoff Baker, in his continuing quest to come home with RSI, writes about the rough day for catchers, and Guillen. Also, his thoughts on a possible Ichiro trade.
They have two young center fielders, Jeremy Reed and Adam Jones, who will need playing time in coming years to show what they’ve got. Seattle could have traded Reed, Jones, or both this winter but balked. OK then, what’s the plan now?
This implies the team has a plan, which we’ve clearly seen consists of a couple items they write down on a grocery list notepad and then proceed to check off at the off-season supermarket. Veteran starter (2). Veteran DH with power from the left side. Veteran reliever…
Oh, and Bloomquist is going to play most of the time at second until Lopez is ready to take over. First person to correctly predict the date, author, and newspaper to run the first “When will Willy get his chance to start?” article gets a year’s free subscription to USS Mariner.
USSM breaks new ground, maybe
I’ve heard the inclusion of my piece “Bugs Bunny, greatest banned player ever” in the next Best American Sports Writing Annual makes USSM the first baseball blog and possibly the first blog of any kind to break into that hallowed series. I’d have to hit the library and look through the archives to check, and it’s strange to think that might be the case, but looking through the table of contents available for the last couple of editions, there’s ESPN.com and Slate, but I don’t see anything… this being the internet, I’m sure if that’s not true someone will be here to break up the party momentarily.
Ichiro and free agency, Lowe’s woes, and more
Ichiro’s comments yesterday on free agency are covered extensively.
“Ichiro may leave” in the PI.
Geoff Baker on the same subject. The picture of Ichiro hanging out in his pink shirt is worth it.
The Japanese star was taking live batting practice in his first spring workout here Tuesday when Seattle reliever George Sherrill sent him lunging out of the way on a pitch that ran inside. After the chuckles subsided all around him, Ichiro finished the workout, then let reporters know that Sherrill’s errant slider was about the only “pitch” he has seen yet from a Mariners squad he is thinking seriously about leaving.
That comes after not one but two blog entires (“Ichiro won’t rule out free agency” and “Agent confirms Ichiro “very disappointed,” mulling options“)
Lowe may go under the knife again, or Lowe still not cleared to throw. Short version: the arm’s not right, and they’re going to MRI it to see what the deal is. Results may drive another surgery.
The Times follows up on WSJ story on the M’s re-working their suites and includes this tidbit:
Safeco Field opened in 1999 with 67 luxury suites and subsequently added another suite on the press-box level. For the first few years, 98 to 99 percent of the suites were filled, said Aylward. He said last year’s percentage was in the mid- to upper-80s.
At the PI, the Go 2 Guy, who for some reason showed up at the wrong spring training league and is still filing Mariner stories, writes about Moyer and Garcia and Adam Eaton, who “In a better world, from a Seattle perspective, Adam Eaton would be wearing a blue uniform in Peoria instead of a red one in Clearwater, Fla.” In a better world, his asking price would have been reasonable for the team to pay. That was a good pass for the M’s.
Also, my “Bugs Bunny, Greatest Banned Player Ever” post here at USSM is going to be in the next Best American Sports Writing annual. I’m super excited.
Community Projections: Beltre, Ibanez, and Ichiro
Sorry about the delayed writeups on the community projections – I was hanging out with my mom, who takes priority over blogging. So, we’re doing a three-in-one recap today.
Adrian Beltre
Community Projection: .283/.346/.511, 604 AB, 171 H, 40 2B, 3 3B, 31 HR, 51 BB, 7 HBP, 112 K
High: .304/.385/.603
Low: .243/.297/.373
Dave: .278/.341/.477
You guys love Adrian Beltre. Love him. I’d be curious to see what the projections would look like if he had started off hot and then crashed and burned at the end of the year, rather than vice versa. However, it looks like his May through September juvenation was enough to convince you guys that his struggles weren’t permanent, as the community thinks he’s going to have his best non-2004 year of his career. An .857 OPS from a gold glove caliber third baseman in Safeco Field is a borderline MVP candidate. I think this projection’s a bit too optimistic, but it’s plausible at least. This is the kind of production we were hoping for when he signed here.
Raul Ibanez
Community Projection: .280/.350/.466, 572 AB, 160 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 60 BB, 2 HBP, 107 K
High: .302/.388/.548
Low: .267/.317/.385
Dave: .282/.334/.435
An age-34 power spike is almost never sustained, so you guys are right to bring his slugging numbers back down towards career norms, but again, I think this might be a little too optimistic. Ibanez has been a consistent player, but he’s entering his age 35 season, and decline is inevitable eventually. Assuming he doesn’t get as many intentional walks this year, and more of the balls that left the yard turn back into doubles or long outs, he could go from being a minor star back to a role player. If he hits as the community projects, though, he’ll continue to be a valuable hitter, albeit one who shouldn’t be playing left field in Safeco.
Ichiro!
Community Projection: .330/.379/.438, 684 AB, 227 H, 25 2B, 9 3B, 11 HR, 49 BB, 5 HBP, 68 K
High: .367/.427/.555
Low: .301/.346/.381
Dave: .327/.384/.461
Finally, I like someone more than you guys do. The .108 isolated slugging perecentage here looks low to me, so I’ve given him a little more power than you guys have, but the projections aren’t that different. Everyone agrees that he’s basically going to continue doing his thing, slapping singles all over the park and being the best player on the team. As a center fielder, his value has gone through the roof, and hopefully this year, we can look forward to a season free of articles from national pundits writing their token “Ichiro is overrated” column.
Excuse my dust
I’m working on something (obviously)
If you want to play with the different themes, there’s a picker on the left-hand side. Please keep in mind that I’m at work in public, so “x looks like ass” is not helpful, while “x is a nice feature” is. Thanks.
— update: done for now
Ah, spring training, season of news
Newcomer Vidro in for tough assignment
The team’s bringing in all kinds of people to talk to Vidro. Including Edgar! Sort of!
What horrors await Vidro as DH?
“It’s something where Jose is going to have to find what works for him,” Mariners manager Mike Hargrove said. “You see some guys who sit on a bench, other guys who ride the bike the whole time and then they’re too tired when they have to go hit.”
But Hargrove quickly added: “Jose has been a good hitter for a number of years, and cream rises to the top.”
So Jose Vidro is a congealed dairy product. Awesome.
Have I mentioned lately how awesome it is, as an angry M’s fan, to have Hargrove regularly quoted in news stories? I don’t even have to write a joke there. Hargove statements are self-contained jokes-with-punchline. All you have to do is laugh.
I do have a question, though, related to that.
If cream rises to the top, how come you’re possibly the worst active manager and you haven’t been displaced by someone better?
Anyway, yeah yeah yeah, he used to hit, he was injured, everyone thinks he’ll be awesome. We’ll see, obviously. We hope for success.
Baker, 2: Ichiro passed his physical! And Mike Hargrove’s pondering what he’ll say to the team next Tuesday!
“We did a lot right all year except for 11 days,” he said, referring to an 11-game losing streak that sank Seattle’s hopes in August. “A lot of good things happened here last year that obviously were overshadowed by 11 days we spent on that road trip.
“But last year was a good season for us.”
Bwahahahhahahahahaha. Ooooh, Mike, you kidder.
Believe me, the guy on the mound isn’t running through his K/AB ratio or his VORP at a time like that. And it’s that type of psychological edge that doesn’t show up on paper. I agree that Sexson is too inconsistent at times and strikes out in some key situations. But every successful team needs his fear factor in the lineup. Try to replace it with a platoon of less-feared guys and chances are the other hitters in the lineup would suffer.
Soooooooo…. I can’t let that go by.
You know what teams need? Tall guys. Tall guys give the team an intimidating appearance, and pitchers can’t look down on them. It rattles them. I agree that talent’s important, but teams need to be tall. Try and replace tall guys with shorter guys, and production drops. Maybe not in any way you can measure, and it might even go up, but the tallness factor is there, and it’s real.
And hard-to-pronounce names. If a batter’s name is too hard to pronounce in the prep meetings, a lot of teams just skip them. It’s why some of the best hitters have strange names. Teams need to make sure that they have a couple of guys in the lineup with crazy names to force the other team to expend more effort. Now, I know you’re thinking “You’re just saying that because your last name is Zumsteg” or “I’ve looked at this, and that’s just not true,” but while it may not show up in the statistics, or win column, or production, there it is.
Also, sunglasses. The sunglasses a lineup wear have to be balanced. You want at least two, three guys in full wraparounds, and two or more without any sunglasses at all. You need to mix it up, but keep the intimidation. On average, you want one lens per batter, which is tough with nine in the lineup. And you can’t have guys with monocles up there, don’t talk crazy.
The PI writes about Brandon Morrow. You may remember Morrow from the hilarious “AP writes story about Morrow not pitching, we post story, he immediately throws two innings” post back on 7/28. Ahh, memories.
The Angels can bite our gray or teal-wearing butt, sort of
I’ve written before that the division’s up for grabs and there’s no reason in particular to think that the Angels are the favorites, much less clear favorites. Geoff Baker at the Times is the most public advocate of the contrary position, in his blog entries from spring training.
I will now spend some time on why I don’t think the Angels are quite that good.
Pitching!
Angels rotation: Lackey, Escobar, Santana the Lesser, Weaver the Greater, probably Saunders
Seattle rotation: King Felix, Washburn, Ho Ramirez, Miguel Batista, Weaver the Lesser
Lackey’s gotta be one of the highest value/ink expended writing about him pitchers, but Felix is his equal. No, really. I’m assuming that Colon stays out or is ineffective this season after returning.
Overall, the Angels’ rotation is way better – pick your projection engine of choice, their ERA runs out to about ~.6 runs/nine innings lower. That’s pretty huge, and you can now feel to free discuss why Ho Ramirez should outperform/Washburn is going to put up a low 3 ERA, etc. I’d argue with Woods/Baek the M’s are better able to take a rotation hit, but right now, Baker & Co. are right – their rotation kicks our rotation’s asssssssss. The extra ‘s’s are for extra superiority.
Bullpen-wise, the Angels run out Fransisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, and a pick ’em of pretty good options behind them. As long as the M’s are running Mateo out there, it’s tough, but as a unit, they can pretty easily put together the Angels’ equal even with Putz returning to earth a little. It’d be nice if the M’s had a manager who could run a bullpen as well as the Angels, but that’s not an option yet.
What’s that worth, then? It puts the Angels potentially up ~70-80 runs on the pitching side. Whooooo. That is pretty huge. The gap last year between the two teams was 60 runs. So the M’s are losing ground, unless (again) you see Ramirez/Batista outperforming. Or, heck, Weaver.
Defensively, the Angels are a little worse looking to next year than in 2006, which I mentioned – Mathews is not an upgrade on Figgins, Figgins at third would not be an upgrade, and so on. The two teams were pretty close defensively last year, and the Mariners, getting a full season in center out of Ichiro and (cross fingers) a healthy Guillen, should improve over last year. Call it a wash, but if the M’s aren’t ahead of the Angels in defensive efficiency next year, I’d be surprised.
Now, offensively. Last year the Mariners were 12 runs behind the Angels. As much as I hate hate hate this offseason’s moves, I can’t argue the offense isn’t likely to perform better. Last year, overall:
M’s DHs hit .235/.300/.366
M’s CFers hit .249/.294/.362
That’s horrrrrible. Now the projection systems all seem to think that Vidro’s done, but here’s Vidro-is-done projection from PECOTA: .266/.330/.368. That’s a fair upgrade. And if you’re smoking what the M’s are passing, well, you’re looking forward to a bounty of runs. Similarly, the Guillen move helps the overall outfield offense (hopefully). They’d be even better if they’d let Lopez be Lopez, but I’ve ranted enough about that. Or if they’d keep Bloomquist from getting 200 at-bats. Or… sorry. Moving on.
What do the Angels have? Napoli was great and then stank, and I’m not that optimistic about his chances, or the possibility his backups will do well. A full season of Kendrick’s a huge upgrade at second. But Garret Anderson sucks. Mathews’ projections are about what the Angels got out of center last year. Cabrera/Aybar won’t produce more than last year. Shea Hillenbrand, if he DHs, is going to be a huge, huge step back for the team. They managed to get .295/.356/.492 out of their DHs last year, and that’s about Hillenbrand’s 90% PECOTA forecast.
Is it enough to close the gap? It’s unlikely, but the M’s are easily 20-30 runs better than the Angels now, and it could be a lot more than that. We’ll see, what with Guillen’s shoulder and how some of the other issues sort themselves out (for instance, check out the difference in projected performances for Vidro and Broussard – there’s still room to squeeze more out of this lineup).
Overall, then, the Angels come out about 50 runs ahead, which is a lot more than I thought it would be when I started this, but their rotation really looks that much better right now, so I’m crossing my fingers for Ho and Miguel. But lining them up, the rotation’s the only place the Angels are clearly the better team (though, uh, they’re also clearly way better).
In the division, though, I don’t see that making them clear favorites. I see the A’s taking an offensive and rotation step back, which (and I freely admit I haven’t calculated this out either) puts them roughly on par with the Angels on both fronts, and the Rangers take a step back in center, but Catalanotto’s a huge upgrade at DH (Rangers DHs in 2006: .238/.309/.410)(bleeaaghh) and overall, they’re not a substantially better or worse team (the M’s, btw, should totally try and trade for McCarthy if his gopherball/flyball tendencies get him entirely rocked in Arlington and the Rangers sour on him).
Right now, then, I see the A’s and Angels as good teams, followed by the M’s and Rangers, who are both .500-ish teams. In that kind of environment, the division’s not the Angels’ to take, it’s anyone’s to take. The normal swings of luck, much less health, could easily bring either or both the Angels and A’s to earth, or boost the Mariners into contention.
Important Monday news for you
Times:
Pitcher readies for life in AAA. Feierabend appears headed to Tacoma.
In the notebook, Beltre’s got some kind of… approach thing. And Lowe’s meeting with Yocum. He hopes to be cleared to start his rehab.
Geoff Baker thinks the Angels are going to win next year because:
– their 5th guy “has the stuff of an ace”. So did Gil Meche, you can see where that got us.
– “pitching and defense win games”. So does offense.
– they have a good bullpen
– also, the Angels weren’t so hot defensively last year, Gary Matthews Jr isn’t a good defensive center fielder by any metric, so that’s not going to help. In fact, in Pinto’s PMR, Mathews was a sliver above Chone Figgins, who got the most time out there for the Angels last year. Unless you’re arguing that Figgins can now play third full-time, except that Izturis was better there than Figgins.
I continue to disagree that the Angels are anything special or that they should be considered favorites in the division.
PI:
Thiel on John McLaren’s return as bench coach.
McLaren still chokes up when he talks of the legendary season that saved Major League Baseball in Seattle. Unfortunately, a part of the reason the story is legendary is because it happened a long time ago.
Hickey: Rhodes, Mariners hope for repeat.
When Arthur Rhodes was a Mariner, Seattle was at its best.
Rhodes is back with the Mariners, who could use some of that same mojo.
Then again, so could Rhodes.
The notebook’s got more or less the same stuff as the Times.
Hey! You know what’s worked really well for the Mariners in the past? Trying to recapture the magic of past teams.
Unimportant news:
Griffey’s latest injury is from wrestling with his kids.
Other important but not Mariner-related news:
5″ new snow at base at Summit West in the last day, 6″ in the last 48 hours. Forecast is for 8-14 inches of new snow by sunset. Or, 8-14 inches of new snow by sunset.
I’m just pointing that out. For reference. I’m not suggesting you should call in sick and meet me up at Snoqualmie or anything.