USSM Year-end Best-of: June 2006
6-2: Dave’s draft preview.
6-5: Dave does “Good News, Bad News”
6-6: I’m all excited about draft day.
6-7: “Why not Miller?” Dave explains the politics of the draft and how it led to the Mariners passing up Andrew Miller.
6-7: The wider view of the draft and economics. “Level the field, let them play.”
6-20: In “Abandoning the catch-up” I argued the small chance at division contention then wasn’t not worth sacrificing long-term success
6-22: Dave, basking in the happiness of brief success – “This is fun”
This still isn’t a great team. They have some major flaws, and while this season may not end with a championship parade, they’ve made a huge step forward – it’s no longer painful to be a Mariner fan.
Hooray for hope.
6-29 So what now? Dave’s plan to keep the team in contention from the season’s midpoint.
6-30: Dave reflects on the A’s vulnerabilities and the strange perception that they were the best team in baseball.
Bonus for the masochistic: totally unsupervised comment threads for Games 59 and 60
Nate Silver on the Zito signing
In an “Unfiltered” blog post at Baseball Prospectus (“Barry Zito and “Smart” versus “Dumb” Projections“), Silver makes a really interesting point: he argues that Zito’s contract is entirely reasonable if you think ERA is awesome and predictive of future performance. Over the life of his contract, he should be good enough to earn that $100m (if you assume that the current rate/win isn’t a fluke, etc).
If you don’t – if you’re willing to pay more attention to his component stats, his stuff, look at comperable players, etc, you find that that’s way, way off. $57m off, according to a PECOTA long-term look (which also assumes that paying the current rate/win, etc etc).
Yup. The game is changing, and front offices are getting much smarter, but it’s not changing that fast, really, and teams aren’t getting smarter at the same rate.
USSM Year-end Best-of: May 2006
5-3: Bloomquist and Lopez discuss Bloomquist being on fire
5-4: Why the players’ union should support the minor league umpires’ strike
5-10: Doyle Day
5-15: Photos from Tacoma, including ex-Mariner Snelling and the insane Diamond Dig. Game report from same.
A kid did a sweep-the-bases thing and after he was done, he brushed off the umpire’s feet, and the ump gave him a ball. Implied message: do as you’re told and debase yourself to authority, and you’ll be rewarded.
5-25: Why Albert Pujols will break the single-seaon home run record
Pujols’ hot start makes a run at the title possible, and unless we see a dramatic shift in sentiment, he’ll be given every opportunity teams can spare to make sure his path is clear.
Pujols, of course, got injured and missed a little time, but you essentially can’t miss any time and challenge a season hitting record.
5-28: Just jaw-droppingly horrible. Dave tears into Hargrove over a particularly, even for Hargrove, bad game.
The “Charting Felix” series started in May: on 5-17, the beginning. 5-22 (pitch variation, more changes, please). 5-26: Charting Felix against the Twins: see Felix succeed and fail with his pitch selection
USSM Year-end Best-of: April 2006
Game 24 thread: complaining about Gil Meche leads to the destruction of Seattle.
Roger Clemens, the 21st Century Wants a Word With You
Early analysis on aggressive baserunning
April also brought us the best quote of the year, from the PI:
“I never thought I’d see the day where there was less than 20,000,†said utility man Willie Bloomquist. “(Tuesday night) was the first time I’ve walked out for a game and gone, ‘Wow.’ It’s a little odd being able to hear conversations with fans.â€
“Really?†I wondered. “What did they say?â€
“You (expletive) suck, Bloomquist!†Bloomquist said.
USSM Year-end Best-of: March 2006
Book review: The Museum of Clear Ideas
Dave on the Thornton-for-Borchard trade
Bugs Bunny, Greatest Banned Player Ever
Dave scouts Daniel Bard and Andrew Miller
Dave compares Meche and Pineiro, which includes
Basically, Gil Meche sucks and Joel Pineiro doesn’t.
It’s a good piece of analysis, and also demonstrates that we get stuff wrong all the time.
Position roundtables: RF
USSM Year-end Best-of: February 2006
Slow month at USSM. The position roundtables are about it. (1b, 2b (and follow-up on Bloomquist-as-2b), SS, 3B, LF, CF
2/27:
How many Mariner fans does it take to change a lightbulb?
1: I don’t know, but about 30,000 a night show up hoping to see the lightbulb turn itself around.
2: Changing lightbulbs is unncessary for Mariner fans, who bask endlessly in the luminous goodness of Raul Ibanez’s soul. (props to Jonah for the idea for this one)
USSM Year-end Best-of: January 2006
Will Clark at the Hall of Fame
Evaluating Defense. Dave’s rundown on how best to approach the extremely difficult problem of figuring out who’s good and bad with the glove, and how good.
Joke salvage, from Meche heads to arbitration
Arbitration board: We rule for Mr. Hunter. Mr. Hunter, if you could just walk over here and take this gigantic sack of money…
Hunter: I don’t walk, sorry.
The Rise and Fall of Dave Fleming.
Mariners fandom, as seen through:
materialism
poststructuralism
logical positivism
Management review. Dave’s “feelings on the Mariner front office, how they operate, what they do well, and what they could do better” a year ago.
The Mariners’ Revenge Song. Jeff busts out song lyrics.
Jeff and Derek discuss the 2005 off-season. I don’t know that this has weathered quite as well, but it was really interesting to go back and re-read this.
Zito gets a seven year, $18m/year deal
Supposedly.
“Sooooo… how about that appeals court ruling?”
“I’m fine.”
“You think between the union, Bonds, and everything else we’ll be able to keep Bonds on the field all year?”
“Sure, why not.”
“It does seem like there’s a fair chance he’s going to jail on perjury charges in the next… year, two years.”
“Nah.”
“That’s a pretty short window of opportunity, between possible retirement or incarceration…”
“Fine, fine, call Boras, tell him we cave.”
Best part: the 2014 option for $18m. Yeaaaaaaah.
2006 Free Agent Signings
With free agency nearly over, and by popular demand, here is my list of the ten best and worst free agent signings this winter. I’ve been vocal in my criticism of some of the decisions made this offseason, and there have been some horrible contracts handed out, but there have also been some good deals signed this winter.
So, without further ado, as of 12/28, the best and worst of the offseason signings:
Best Contracts of 2006
| Rank | Player | Team | Years | Total |
| 1. | M. Mussina | New York Yankees | 2 | $23m |
| 2. | G. Maddux | San Diego Padres | 1 | $10m |
| 3. | A. Pettitte | New York Yankees | 1 | $16m |
| 4. | D. Matsuzaka | Boston Red Sox | 6 | $102m |
| 5. | R. Durham | San Francisco Giants | 2 | $15m |
| 6. | D. Dellucci | Cleveland Indians | 3 | $11.5m |
| 7. | A. Iwamura | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 3 | $13m |
| 8. | M. Alou | New York Mets | 1 | $8.5m |
| 9. | M. DeRosa | Chicago Cubs | 3 | $13m |
| 10 | J. Valentin | New York Mets | 1 | $3.8m |
Honorable Mention: A. Kennedy, F. Thomas, J. Guillen, F. Catalanatto, R. Wolf
Worst Contracts of 2006
| Rank | Player | Team | Years | Total |
| 1. | C. Lee | Houston Astros | 6 | $100m |
| 2. | B. Zito | San Francisco Giants | 7 | $126m |
| 3. | G. Meche | Kansas City Royals | 5 | $55m |
| 4. | J. Pierre | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 | $45m |
| 5. | G. Matthews | Anaheim Angels | 5 | $50m |
| 6. | A. Soriano | Chicago Cubs | 8 | $136m |
| 7. | J. Marquis | Chicago Cubs | 3 | $21m |
| 8. | D. Baez | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | $19m |
| 9. | S. Hillenbrand | Anaheim Angels | 1 | $6.5m |
| 10. | W. Williams | Houston Astros | 2 | $12.5m |
Dishonorable Mention: B. Molina, A. Gonzalez, J. Walker, J. Payton, M. Stanton, C. Bradford
It was a good year to sign aging all-stars to short term deals, as the top three guys on my list are all still among the better pitchers in their respective leagues, and required no long term commitment. There were quite a few good contracts signed, but the albatross deals handed out to mediocre players will be the story of the winter.
Randy Johnson: Yes, Please
If you haven’t heard, Randy Johnson is not only available, but is apparently looking to move back to the west coast, closer to his family, and presumably would prefer a team that spends spring training in his home state.
An above average left-handed starter? Check.
Short term commitment? Check.
Geographic nature of area appealilng? Check.
Big name acquisition to potentially excite fan base? Check.
Hall of Fame pitcher with a chance to end a great career where it began to flourish? Check.
Randy Johnson isn’t the same guy who we remember being the most dominating pitcher of the mid-90s, the guaranteed win who made you want to go to the Kingdome on an 80 degree day and cheer for a dude with a mullet. But he’s still one of the better pitchers in the American League. Really.
Among AL pitchers in 2006, Randy Johnson ranked 11th in strikeout rate and 18th in Fielding Independant ERA. His 4.32 FIP put him in the same category as guys like Ervin Santana and Vicente Padilla and ahead of Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, and Justin Verlander. His ERA of 5.00 wasn’t nearly as impressive, but if you look at his line, there’s one number that stands out:
205 IP, 2.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 61.8% LOB%
Nobody in the American League stranded less baserunners than Randy Johnson. His LOB% of 61.8% is off the charts. Joel Pineiro, for all his horribleness, stranded 63.8% of baserunners. You can generally calculate a player’s LOB% fairly well by using his BB, K, and HR rates, which you could call expected left on base rate. Randy Johnson’s xLOB% was 72%, and the difference between his expected strand rate and his actual strand rate was higher than any pitcher in baseball.
You can think this proves some kind of lack of skill if you want, but it’s not – it’s mostly random variation, and I’d gladly put $100 on a bet that Randy Johnson won’t post the lowest LOB% in the American League in 2007.
The same effect that artificially deflated Jarrod Washburn’s ERA in 2005 pushed Randy Johnson’s ERA higher in 2006. Johnson isn’t an an all-star anymore, but he’s still a very effective starting pitcher, better than any of these clowns who are getting long term, big money deals as free agents this winter.
If the Mariners are serious about adding another starting pitcher to their rotation, Randy Johnson is the obvious choice.