Who Stays, Who Goes
It sounds like the wheels of trade are beginning to churn in the front office. Chris Snelling has rejoined the team in Toronto—apparently, there’s an obscure rule about avoiding the 10 day recall window if you never actually reported to your optional assignment, so Snelling never rejoined the Rainiers—and Larry Stone had a piece in the Times this morning about who to keep and who to deal. Since we like Larry, I’m going to use his comments as a launching point for my take.
Eddie Guardado: Keep. It only makes sense to deal Guardado if they have someone ready to plug in, and the Mariners don’t. Guardado is a strength; they can lock him up for next year by picking up a $6.25 million team option. To retain an All-Star caliber closer, it’s worth it.
I disagree. Closers are fungible. We may not have someone who can post a 1.45 ERA in the future, but odds are, neither can Eddie. His peripherals don’t support his crazy low run prevention, and he’s still got the whole injured arm thing. And he’s old. Guardado is the team’s most marketable piece. They can find another closer. Use him to get a legitimate prospect.
Jamie Moyer: Trade. He has been a magnificent performer, an asset to the community, and remains, at age 42, an effective pitcher. But if the M’s can find a team desperate for starting pitching, and Moyer agrees to waive his trade-veto rights for a chance to pitch in his first World Series, it can be a win-win. Besides, there’s nothing to keep the M’s from re-signing Moyer next year.
Again, I disagree. With the no-trade, his big contract, his terrible performances away from Safeco, his age, and his lack of stuff, what are you going to get for him? If you convince him to go to, say, New York, you’re going to get a C level prospect, which the M’s already have a ton of, and you have to deal with the negative press from trading Moyer. The odds of us getting something of real tangible value are low enough that I’d hang onto him. And, as Derek and I discussed the other night, bring him back next year as a home-only starter.
Gil Meche: Keep. The word now is that the Marlins and White Sox, among others, covet Meche. As maddening as he has been, Meche still has a world-class arm and 10 victories to his credit. Plus, he’s just 26. The M’s have invested too much time and effort to watch him blossom into an ace with another team.
Good God no. Move him as soon as you can. A world class arm? Whatever. He’s got decent enough stuff that hitters pound and he can’t throw strikes consistently. His win totals make it look like he’s pitching well, but he’s not. He’s bad. If a team “covets” him, cash in now. He’s the new Brett Tomko.
Joel Pineiro: Trade. Pineiro remains as maddening, and nearly as promising, as Meche, and they’re days apart in age. The same risk exists in trading him, but at this point in Pineiro’s career, with him still struggling to come back from elbow problems, his upside no longer seems as high as Meche’s. If they can get a good package of young talent, it’s a risk worth taking  especially to get next year’s $6.3 million salary off their books.
I agree with Stone in principal, but I think there’s this weird unrealistic school of thought that Joel Pineiro has trade value. He makes $6 million next year, he’s terrible, and his velocity is just gone. Fine, you might find a team willing to take him on as a reclamation project if we pay half his salary and they don’t have to give us anything for him. And I’d probably be willing to do that. But there’s no way we’re getting a package of young talent AND they’re paying his salary. Joel Pineiro is a bad major league pitcher with a big contract.
Raul Ibanez: Keep. Ibanez is a quality left-handed bat, with the ability to play outfield, and a positive clubhouse presence. There’s no reason to deal him.
While I agree that I’d keep him, unless some team really wants him and makes me a nice offer, there are reasons to deal him. But we’ve done this post already, so I’ll move on.
Randy Winn: Trade. At some point soon, the Mariners are going to have to address the glaring lack of power in their outfield. Plus, they have Chris Snelling (not a power threat yet, but definitely a potential impact bat) having earned an extended look.
It sounds like Winn is gone sooner than later. And while we’ve been big supporters of Winn the past year, its the right move.
Ron Villone: Keep. Left-handed relievers are a valuable commodity, and Villone is one of the best around. Replacing him would be harder than you’d think.
No freaking way. Move now. Fine, he’s a fairly valuable middle reliever on a team that has a freaking ton of them. George Sherrill, anyone. Cesar Jimenez. Villone would not be hard to replace for a team that understands the fungibility of relievers. We bought low on Villone and it paid off. Time to sell high.
Shigetoshi Hasegawa: Trade. Shiggy did a wonderful job in 2003, but his career appears to be on the decline. If the M’s could get some value in return, they should do it, and groom a younger arm for the job.
Sure. If you can get a live body in return, move him. Shiggy has no value to this team and you don’t want him back next year.
Now, to the players Stone didn’t mention:
Aaron Sele and Ryan Franklin – depends on what you do with the other three starters. You can’t trade the entire rotation. There aren’t enough pitchers in Tacoma to replace more than a couple. Sele and Franklin aren’t going to bring a ton in return anyways, so they’re decent bets to stick around and eat the rest of the 2005 innings. But if you can’t move Meche, Moyer, or Pineiro, trying to redeem either one for a servicable young player would be a good idea.
Jeff Nelson – again, if you move Guardado, Villone, and Hasegawa, you probably need to hang onto him so that the bullpen isn’t a total joke to finish the year. But, if those guys stick around, deal Nelson. He has no future here and could probably bring at least a potentially marginal role player in return.
The Feed and the Long View
I’d like to take a different angle on the Feed — “what does this all mean?”
Short term, it’s a mixed bag, but there’s reason for hope. Take the Garica trade (woo-hoo!). I think they’re realistic, but some of the things I’ve continually harped on don’t seem likely to change (minor league depth to cover for things like the rotation collapse, working free-talent avenues harder, building a complete 25-man roster with useful, fitting parts, that kind of thing).
The most encouraging part was knowing that the team wants to win, but is trying to build a minor league system that can support a sustained competitive team. We talk about stars-and-scrubs, but this is how you want a team to build for a World Series title: develop stars, prospects for trade or who’ll become role-players on the cheap, and use your money to fill the holes around them. Then drink champagne and fly the pennants.
So when they talk about being buyers or sellers, that’s scary, but it’s almost irrelevant. They do want to put wins on the board, and keep people turning out at the park. They’ve got to keep people buying season tickets, and that’s where .400 seasons really hurt their bottom line. If getting to .500 this season requires them to sacrifice (say) Choo, that’s something the ownership’s going to want to go for, and I’m going to scream about.
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Doyle Back To Tacoma
The Mariners have demoted Our Aussie Prospect, thanks in large measure to Derek’s “get the guy at bats” exhortations at the feed. Dave Hansen has been activated.
By the way, thanks to everyone at the feed who, when the “S” word was uttered, shouted “Doyle!” repeatedly, something that I’m sure confused Bavasi, but brought joy and mirth to my heart.
[Registration site: poo@katu.com, password biteme. I’ll put up a non-registration link when one is available. Like this one at the bottom of the Times notebook, and this one from the P-I.]
Bavasi and the Feed
As you’ve almost certainly heard by now, Mariners GM Bill Bavasi spent two hours on Saturday before the game answering questions from the BP/USSM readers in attendance. His candor was remarkable, and he got high marks from everyone in attendance for his ability to simultaneously be insightful, strong, funny, and articulate. For almost everyone there, I’m sure it will be a highlight from a season that hasn’t had many.
As we’ve also mentioned, Bavasi was extremely honest with his opinion of a large amount of players, speaking his mind openly about their strengths, weaknesses, and the organizations take on their abilities. Those comments were made with the understanding that they wouldn’t be published on the site, and we have no problem honoring that commitment, even though we realize this may be a bit frustrating to many of you were not able to attend. We’re sorry about that, but we feel that is the right course of action in this case.
However, Bill was also very forthcoming with regards to the questions he received on baseball theory, player development philosophies, the roles of scouting and statistical analysis, and his methods of player valuation. What follows is both a recap of Bavasi’s responses to his philosophies as well as a look at how our assessment of the organization’s direction has gone since he was hired.
The Attrition War, Padres
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Padres.
Junior
As one of the few people left who roots for Ken Griffey, Jr., I wanted to point out that he’s finally having the sort of year the Reds thought they’d be getting when they traded for him five years ago. I can’t believe it’s been that long.
Griffey homered and walked three times today, raising his season line to a none-too-shabby .290/.365/.546 with 20 homers, giving him 521 in his career. I still say he hits 600 before he’s done. He’s also on pace to play in 150 games for the first time since he left Seattle.
He’ll probably go on the DL tomorrow. Ken, I’m sorry.
The Attrition War, Orioles
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Orioles.
Game 91, Orioles at Mariners
1:05 sure snuck up on me. RHP Sir Sidney Ponson v RHP Gil Meche.
Bloomquist sits! (gasp of shock)
Notes from Underground: Wrapping the Feed and Game Outing
Bill Bavasi put me in a headlock, threw one fan’s hat in the trash, and told another “I’m right, you’re wrong — get lost.” Jim Caple brought bats identical to the ones Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner and Shoeless Joe used. It was revealed that David Cameron is on steroids.
Suffice it to say, tonight’s USS Mariner/Baseball Prospectus outing was eventful. With a 3-2 win sealed in last of the ninth, it was enjoyable as well.
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Game 90, Orioles at Mariners
LHP Bruce Chen vs. LHP Jamie Moyer, 7:05pm, FSN & KOMO
I just got back from Maryland tonight after a really long — amazing how Friday afternoon NYC traffic can turn a four-hour drive into seven hours — one-night trip with wife and son. Palmeiro was on the cover of the Baltimore Sun, as you might have guessed.
Chen’s in search of his fifth straight win, and since he’s a lefty, Hargrove has take the liberty of benching Reed in favor of Willie Bloomquist. Morse at short, Lopez at second, Borders behind the dish; the rest is pretty standard.
And hey, how’s this for amusing? For a mere $4.95 per month — $44.95 a year — Major League Baseball will host your baseball blog at their special URL which I won’t be mentioning. They really are all about the fans, eh?
P.S. Blogger hosts blogs for free and even lets you post photos now. No foolin’.