Game 54, Devil Rays at Mariners
LHP Scott Kazmir vs. RHP Joel Pineiro; 7:05pm, FSN and KOMO
Kazmir was once regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and has pitched well this year for a 21-year old who entered the season with just 33 innings of experience above AA. His strikeout rate is a bit lower than you might expect given his good stuff, but check out how he’s kept the ball in the park — he’s on pace to allow just 12 homers in 188 innings over the course of the season. That’s a darned fine number for any pitcher, let alone a guy just three years out of high school. He’s also left-handed, which certainly doesn’t bode well for the M’s tonight.
Meanwhile, the ticking time bomb known as Joel Pineiro takes his 6.66 ERA to the mound for your hometown nine. Last time out against this same Devil Rays club, he was shelled for ten hits and seven runs in 4 2/3 innings.
Could be a long night.
The Attrition War, Athletics
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Athletics.
Game 53, Devil Rays at Mariners
LHP Casey Fossum v RHP Aaron Sele.
I feel beat up already.
On Lou’s yearly return: I’ve already complained about the team’s snub of Randy Johnson, but what about Lou Piniella? Doesn’t he deserve anything for his time here? Even as some kind of compensation for being the most frequently badly-typed name during his time (Pinella, Pinnella, etc)?
The Attrition War, Astros
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Astros.
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Schwarz on Best/Worst Draft Picks
There’s a two-edged sword to writing a group blog in tandem with bright people. On the one hand, you’re always learning, and you want to rise to the occasion of others’ good posts with solid efforts of your own. But then you see a bunch of great stuff you don’t want to knock off the front page.
So I’ll save my longer material for next week and offer instead this quick hit. In advance of the draft next week, check out the always reliable Alan Schwarz’ rundown of the best and worst high draft picks. The Mariners make the list in a couple of places, with A-Rod deservedly at No. 1, and with an anecdote about Tito Nanni that you may find amusing.
The Attrition War, Angels
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Angels.
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Week #10 in Review
So how do the Mariners rebound from an embarrassing sweep in Baltimore? How about their first back-to-back series wins of the season–five of the six games decided by 1 or 2 runs.
And who says this team isn’t fun to watch any more?
Vital Signs
On this Friday we find the Mariners 22-30, sitting firmly in third place. The Angels maintain their 8.5-game lead over the Mariners as they hosted Kansas City over the week. Meanwhile, the third-order wins suggest the Mariners are still unlucky by a pair of games and also that the Angels are the luckiest team in baseball this side of Arizona.
The offense ranks 11th in the league, scoring 220 runs, comparable to the Royals and A’s. Their 37 home runs rank 13th in the league and their 152 walks tie them for 6th in the league. This is an improvement over last week. However, the difference between the White Sox, Indians, Mariners, Orioles, Rangers and Blue Jays is a mere 5 base on balls. Meanwhile, their .314 on-base percentage ranks 11th and their .383 slugging percentage ranks 13th. Their .258 EqA ranks 22nd in all of baseball.
The defense has allowed 243 runs, which makes them the 9th best team in the American League at keeping runs off the board. The gloves are turning 71.6% of balls in play into outs, which along with the White Sox, is the best rate in the American League. Overall, the pitching staff is looking league average, with a staff ERA of 4.49. The starters remain well below average with a 5.20 ERA, while the bullpen continues to be solid with a 3.11 ERA.
The theme here is “Making Outs.” The offense does it much too well. The defense does, too.
As noted earlier, the Mariners took advantage of their first games in a month not against first-place teams or teams with the letters “NY” or “B” on their caps, and won their first back-to-back series in the year, going 4-2. They didn’t do it the easy way, though, as they outscored the Devil Rays and Blue Jays by a margin of just 31-28. Their opponents outslugged them 8 home runs to 4, but the Mariners collected twice as many doubles, 15-7. They also, for once, showed more discipline at the plate, drawing more walks, 25-17. For the week, the M’s hit .290/.370/.440, which maybe isn’t the line of a championship team, but we’ll take our moral victories one step at a time. That’s a huge improvement over the previous week.
Heroes
The success of the offense rests squarely on the shoulders of Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez. Sexson hit .333/.520/.611 with a pair of doubles, a home run and 6 walks. And he stole a base. Ibanez provided production from the left side hitting .409/.500/.545 with 3 doubles and 4 walks.
Gil Meche made a pair of starts, pitched 11 total innings and allowed just 3 runs, for a 2.45 ERA, including a combined shutout on Wednesday night against Toronto. Those thinking, “Finally, the pitching hero we’ve been waiting for!” Um… no, things are not all rosy for Gil Meche. In those 11 innings, Meche walked 7 and struck out only 3, and success never lasts when you walk nearly a batter an inning and make your defense responsible for making 30 of 33 outs.
Meche, Jamie Moyer and Aaron Sele combined to make 4 starts, pitched 23.2 innings (6 IP/start) and allowed just 5 runs. And struck out 7.
Not-so-much Heroes
I keep telling myself it’s going to get better. But Adrian Beltre continues his nightmare season, hitting .217/.280/.261 with a walk and 4 strikeouts in 22 at bats. It’s going to get better. It’s going to get better? My confidence is showing the first signs of waning.
Tuesday Ryan Franklin coughed up 7 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits in just 2.2 innings. He struck out 1. His K/9 stands at 3.69, the lowest of his career, which is cause for serious concern.
Coming to a stadium near you
Memorial Day is behind us and so that means one thing: summer. And Florida!
This weekend the Mariners play host to the Devil Rays. Here’s the magic number for the Rays: 3. That’s how many games Tampa Bay has won on the road this year. It’s the first weekend of June and the Devil Rays have won 3 games. I’ll let that sink in.
The M’s take Monday off as they fly to Miami were interleague picks up again as the face-off against the Marlins. Florida started the season on fire, but has cooled off lately. They still have the second best ERA in all of baseball. Their offense has a .275 EqA, which is 6th in all of baseball. Their lineup has three spots with OBP’s over .400 (Cabrera, Delgado, Castillo). And Mike Lowell (.201/.249/.325) has whatever third-base-no-hit disease is going around the AL West.
A .500 week is not out of the question, as I can see the Mariners taking 2 of 3 from Tampa. As long they can avoid the three-headed monster known in the Senior Circuit as BurnettWillisBeckett, they should be able to squeeze at least one victory from Florida.
Mariner Pitcher Attrition, 1995-2004
The War of Attrition
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All pitchers appearing on Baseball America’s Top 10 Prospect lists from 1995-2004, with ranking/year for each year appearing in that list, followed by summary of history.
The Mariners have two pitchers who were named to a Baseball America list in this time who made significant contributions to the major league team without suffering a serious injury that cost them at least one full season:
Freddy Garcia, who came to the Mariner farm system in the Randy Johnson trade from the Astros, and pitched for the Mariners for several years.
Joel Pineiro, who was shut down last year with elbow problems and is pitching this year with reduced velocity and serious mechanical issues. He did, however, contribute several years in the rotation
Two. One who wasn’t in our system long.
Pitchers appearing at least once on the Baseball America Top Ten list: 28
Listed pitchers suffering rotator cuff injuries that required surgery: 5
Listed pitchers suffering elbow ligament injuries requiring surgery: 4
Injuries and transaction dates are drawn from news reports, with local (Seattle Post-Intelligencer/Seattle Times/and so forth) preferred. Because of the nature of this kind of research, I have probably made some minor errors in overlooking injuries to particular pitchers. If you have additional citations that would substantially clarify or correct a listing, please let me know in the comments or by email.
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Levity
Totally non-Mariners related, but since it was a day off, and the season hasn’t been roses and chocolates, I figure we could all use a laugh. And, honestly, this is one of the funniest things I’ve ever read. If you read Bill Simmons regularly on ESPN, you’ve probably heard of Paul Shirley, the white guy who sits on the bench for the Phoenix Suns and wrote some amazingly funny stuff during his run as a blogger during the regular season.
Well, I hadn’t realized that they brought him back for a playoff blog, so I was doing some catching up, reading through a few entries. And his entry on height had me rolling. Here’s a few of the highlights:
Most of my colleagues are quite tall. I am no exception at 6’10â€Â. When in captivity, on the basketball court, I am able to easily forget the fact that my bones are stretched to an extraordinary length because I am surrounded by other members of the freak show. Not so when I am released into the wild. Then, I am forced to remember… by stupid people.
First, let’s start with the obvious. Telling me I am really tall is not a great conversation starter. It’s like walking up to a well-endowed girl in a bar and telling her she has nice breasts  it’s, A) creepy, and B) obvious. She’s heard it before. It is not a new tactic and is not going to lead to a conversation that ends well. The same (sort of) is true for me. The only possible response available to me is, “And you’re really smart.†The encounter basically marks the asker as an idiot and me as a bastard.
These are all more tolerable, though, than the nearly-out-of-earshot comment. Oftentimes, when I walk by, I will hear whispers: “Wow, look how tall he is,†or “That guy is really tall.†It’s as if, by being tall, I was not blessed with fully functional ears. Were these people not taught how to use their inner monologues? Yes, I am quite tall, but I know that. Any observation to that effect by others should be kept on the inside, unless the participants are willing to bear the consequences. I don’t go around saying everything that is on my mind, but I could. If I did, the airways would be full of, “Well, now that guy is an example of why they made abortion legal,†and, “Why, exactly, were those two people allowed to procreate?†I think we are all better off with my silence so, no more height questions.
You have to read the whole thing.
Remember Randy Johnson, 1995 Mariner
Value over replacement player, 1995
Pitchers:
Randy Johnson, 86.3
Jeff Nelson, 35.2
Tim Belcher, 25.6
(etc)
Hitters
Edgar Martinez, 102.4 (no, seriously)
Tino Martinez, 26.0
Jay Buhner, 21.6
Ken Griffey, Jr 15.6 (remember, he was out half the year)
Players honored with collectible statues, etc
Jay Buhner
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Edgar Martinez
Randy Johnson went 18-2 that year. He started thirty games and pitched 214 1/3 innings — over seven innings a start. He threw three shutouts. His ERA in the fricking Kingdome was 2.48. He struck out *294* hitters. That’s still the 66th-best season for strikeouts in baseball history. For K/IP, it’s now #5 — at the time, it was #1. He walked 65. Compared to the performance of the league average pitcher, today’s it’s still one of the best fifty seasons ever.
Edgar had a spectacular season, too, but he gets a statue. Two other guys who had good seasons get statues.
Randy gets nothing. He doesn’t show up much in the highlight clips they show between innings — look, it’s Randy, congratulating someone in the dugout! Or jumping onto a dogpile!
Randy didn’t leave on good terms. I’ve written about that elsewhere, but the why, and what’s behind it, are unimportant. But so did Griffey, fighting with management on his way out as he tried to become a Red. Why does Randy get ignored, when half a season of Griffey warrant a statue?
And whether or not you think that recognizing the success of the 95 team is worthwhile, or a distraction, or what, we can all agree that ignoring the best player on that team is shameful. Randy was good to the Mariners and Seattle in his time here, and deserves better than this.