Site work update

DMZ · November 1, 2004 · Filed Under Site information

It’s close to nine now, and I’ve completed all the stuff I felt I had to get done. Comment protection is now… well, it’s pretty brutal, though until it can actually reach out and beat the stuffing out of people it’s not as brutal as I’d like.

I have not yet relaxed the controls I put in the first time, so the caveats about AOL issues still apply. All told, today’s site upgrades probably took 2 hours of actual futzing with stuff beyond time spent figuring out how to get them to work and integrated without there being anything obvious that you, the reader, would notice. Which now that I write, that, seems kind of dumb. I should have put blinking “Derek pwnz!!” tags everywhere or something. Anyway–

Let me know if you see anything out of the ordinary, particularly with comments. I did not get to some of the more wonkier stuff I’d hoped to get to, but that’s life. Anyone who wants to talk to me about MySQL, WordPress, and the stranger corners of performance optimization can drop me a line. I’m off to worry about the election but I’ll be back soon enough.

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More M’s accounting in the media

DMZ · November 1, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners

From MLB.com

How much money do the Mariners have available to work with for free-agent signings this offseason? Also, who are the M’s players that are currently scheduled to be returning to the 25-man team (and their salary commitments)? — David Smirnow

Howard Lincoln, the team’s CEO, has said that the payroll budget would not be cut this season, which suggests that the organization will spend about $93 million next season. As of Nov. 1, the team has 11 players under contract next season for $53.68 million. They also owe Jeff Cirillo $4.78 million, and will pay $500,000 to buy out pitcher Kevin Jarvis. Starting pitcher Gil Meche is eligible for free agency and figures to get at least $1 million. With the remainder of the 40-man roster expected to make at least $7 million to $8 million, it is believed that general manager Bill Bavasi will have between $13-15 million to lure free agents to Seattle.

Okay, so factual error #1 is that Meche isn’t eligible for free agency.
#2 is that the Mariners spread a $92m number last year, but that was fictional and they never spent the “Sasaki money”. Actual payroll was much lower.

Assuming you grant him everything else, though, as our readers point out, the numbers still don’t add up.

53.68m + 4.78m to Cirillo + .5m for Jarvis + Meche at 1m + “remainder of roster” at 8m = ~70m, which would mean the team would have, by the logic at the start of the article, $23m to spend on luring free agents to Seattle.

That’s a 8-10m math error *even if you agree with all of the assumptions there*.

I want to point this out to make two points, though:
First, errors like this occur all over the place if you pay attention. That the editors couldn’t be troubled to add the numbers up and see there was a huge error should tell you a lot about the standards of MLB. This wasn’t even a subjective judgement call, either.

Second, when Finnigan runs an article with random numbers in it to justify a weird conclusion, well, he’s not alone.

Update 11/3: they pulled the Q and the A from the page.

Around the Majors

Dave · November 1, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners

Two hirings on the major league front today with very different overtones. A quick look:

1. The Arizona Diamondbacks hired Wally Backman to be their next manager. Think Larry Bowa; than take away logic, sanity, and strategical knowledge. Wally Backman is instantly the worst manager in MLB. Well done boys.

2. Gerry Hunsicker resigned as GM of the Houston Astros, announcing assistant GM Tim Purpura will immediately become his successor. We talked about Purpura a bit last year during the Mariners GM search, and he’s a pretty bright guy. Hunsicker never got the recognition he deserved for building quality teams in Houston, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up taking a more high profile job in a few years.

Also, there’s some rumblings coming out of Atlanta that the Braves and Yankees are working on a deal that would send Kevin Brown, Kenny Lofton, and a truckload of cash to Atlanta for Andruw Jones. This would likely signal the end of any interest the Yankees have in Carlos Beltran.

Amazing Race! Wooot!!

DMZ · November 1, 2004 · Filed Under Off-topic ranting

Just when I thought I would be mostly bored with patches of uninterested through this off-season!, it’s the return of the Emmy-winning Amazing Race on November 16th! Best show on television*! I’m totally psyched, and dearly hope that they move back from the Fear Factor-style eating contests etc they got into last time. I also hope they recruited people who actually want to be on the show and do well, rather than (say) advertise their taco stand for a couple episodes and then quit when it gets rough.

For your convenience, here’s your short guide to this year’s teams and where they fit on the Amazing Team Slotting, TAR6 team (TAR5 equivalent)

Married couple: Jonathan/Victoria (Chip/Kim)
Beautiful people dating 1: Freddy/Kendra (Colin/Christie)
Beautiful people dating 2: Hayden/Aaron (Brandon/Nicole)
Best friends: Avi/Joe aaand Meridth/Maria (Linda/Karen)
Siblings, women: Lena/Kristy(Kami/Karli)
Siblings, men: n/a (Lance/Marshall)
One non-standard contestant: Lori/Bolo (Mirna/Charla)
Older couple: Don/Mary Jean (Bob/Joyce)
Father/Daughter: Gus/Hera (Jim/Marsha)
Dating with twist: Kris/Jon (Alison/Donny, Alison sort of cuckolded Donny on a Big Brother)
Dating with broken relationship: Adam/Rebecca (Dennis/Erika)

Also, I know you have to look good on television, but I’d much rather have some normal dudes who are funny and smart than all these models/beauty pageant contestants every year.

ESPN’s potential free agent list

DMZ · November 1, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners

Check it out.

Comment attacks

DMZ · November 1, 2004 · Filed Under Site information

We’ve been coping with one for a couple days now. At least Party Poker only went after us for a day. Seriously, what’s the scoop, a guy can’t run a site in peace? This is like having door-to-door salespeople break into my house and try to sell me vacuums or cosmetics.

Oh! My point — at some point tonight or tomorrow, I’m going to be building some new anti-comment-spam stuff into the site. Should be transparent to you, but you might notice some weird behavior in the comments if you happen by at the wrong moment.

I’d apologize for the inconvenience, but why? It’s not my fault I have to spend time on this BS.

Costumes

DMZ · October 31, 2004 · Filed Under Off-topic ranting

I’m not picky about these things. I went as a baseball player year after year. And I think it’s important to teach kids that they can satisfy their sugar craving through implied blackmail.

But this year, in my new digs, we’ve seen a lot more trick-or-treaters of the “sullen teen with jeans and backwards-cap” costume.

If you’re going to trick or treat late into life, I’m okay with that. But put some effort into it, please. When I answer the door in a hooded sweatshirt and messed-up hair because I’ve been at the keyboard all day and my haggard writer costume is better than whatever they have on, it’s embarassing for us both.

Meche and arbitration

DMZ · October 30, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners

Many people have commented that the Mariners won’t pay Meche more than, say, $3m next year. Whether or not that’s true, Meche heads into arbitration with a 2004 salary of $2m. Now, normally that can’t go down by more than 20% — it’s in the CBA — except that I found a rule that says they can submit lower if in the last year his salary went up over 50% through arbitration.

So maybe I was totally wrong there, and the M’s could submit a arbitration figure of $600,000 if they wanted.

Arbitration doesn’t work on merit, though, as much as you’d think it would. It is, by and large, an issue of service time. Players headed into arbitration are compared to other players with equal service time and that’s the single largest determinant.

Other factors include performance (including clubhouse leadership and community love! no, really!), the player’s past compensation, “existence of any physical or mental defects” and the performance record of the club.

They’re unlikely to argue that Meche is injured, obviously.
They’ve got a performance argument to make, yes.
Meche isn’t known as a leader or pillar of the community.
The performance record of the club similarly provides the team with ammunition, though I’ve never heard of this being a factor in an actual arbitration hearing.

We should remember that even Brian Hunter, after his awful season as a Mariner, beat the team in arbitration. The M’s thrashed him and the arbitration panel said “if he was so bad why’d you play him so much?”

The argument for taking him to arbitration’s a lot like the Freddy Garcia argument, exceppppt.. if Meche was available for a minor league contract, many teams would bite. Given that teams were unwilling to trade for Meche last year, or claim his contract for nothing when they had the chance early in the season, it seems unlikely that they’d be able to take him to arbitration and move him.

In that case, the team’s going to face the same decision they did with Freddy, sort of: do you take the gamble on the money and hope he performs well enough that you can get something shiny in trade, or keep the money and see if it can’t be put to better use elsewhere?

Continuing expectations game

DMZ · October 30, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners

Ahhhh, just when you might be getting excited about the team picking up some good young players… not so much! Bob Finnigan (dubbed “Pocket Lint” previously for other articles of this sort) breaks the exclusive news, as he does frequently, that the Mariners don’t have as much money as you’d think! No, really! Like $13m. Less, actually.

You see, it turns out that the clubhouse boom box is Jeff Nelson’s, so they have to mail that to him and then buy a new one. Then a recent audit turned up some deferred payments to Russ Davis the team has to pick up. After all the expenses and related fees, they’re looking at having seven dollars and change to spend this off-season.

What we’re going to need to wait for, according to Finnigan, is neeeext year, when even more contracts roll off the books and — I’m sorry, I can’t type any more of this without laughing.

Seattle Times, dear readers. They’ve won Pulitzers.

Offseason Predictions

Dave · October 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners

I’ve still got a ways to go on my short articles on each important free agent on the market, but now that the offseason is actually upon us, I’d like to take a quick break and post what I’m expecting to occur this winter. Now, like any prognostication, odds are that most of these will be wrong in some way or another. Some of these beliefs are based on some things I’ve been told, while others are more speculative in nature. If you’ve been reading the blog for a few months, you’ll probably be able to tell which is which. So, without too many more caveats, here is basic timeline that I believe will at least somewhat resemble this coming offseason and the Mariners involvement.

Two week exclusive negotation window ending November 10th

During the next two weeks, teams have exclusive rights to negotiate with their own free agents without interfernece from other teams. Often, when a player and team both want to extend the contract, the player will reach an agreement without ever filing for free agency. The Mariners who fall into this category are Ron Villone and Dan Wilson. While the M’s are talking to Villone, I expect him to file for free agency, and the Mariners to pursue other options while keeping Villone as a fallback plan. I believe Wilson will be re-signed to a one year contract before the end of the month. In addition, the team will likely exercise the $1.5 million option on Jolbert Cabrera, bringing him back for another year of hacking utilitiness.

I also expect Randy Winn to be traded during this timeframe. The M’s are going to pursue several outfielders in free agency and are expected to move Winn off the roster in order to free up salary and an open position. Coming off another solid average season, he has a bit of trade value, and will likely be part of a package to acquire a veteran pitcher, either a backend starter or more likely a late inning reliever. Houston, Florida, and Baltimore have been mentioned as possibilities. If forced to pick the most likely destination, I’d guess Baltimore, with Jorge Julio being the player coming back to Seattle. The Mariners would likely include a pitcher in the deal as well.

Beginning of free agency, mid-November to December 1st

If the Astros don’t reach an agreement with Carlos Beltran before he files for free agency, I expect the Mariners to come out with a “take it or leave it” offer in the range of 6 years, $95 million and a 2005 salary of about $9 million. The Mariners would love to have Beltran and will give Boras an opportunity to set the market with a contract larger than what Vladimir Guerrero commanded last year, but they have little interest in getting involved in a prolonged negotiation. If Boras intends to keep Beltran on the market and create a bidding war, the Mariners will retract their offer and move on quickly. I don’t expect Boras to accept the Mariners terms, and I believe he’ll eventually sign with the Chicago Cubs for about the same money, perhaps a little bit more, than what the Mariners original offer will be.

After moving off of Beltran, the organization will turn to target B, who many in the front office prefer anyways. Again, the team will come out bidding strong with an offer intended to knock the Dodgers out of the running; probably something in the 6 year, $80 million range, again with a significantly lower 2005 salary. I don’t believe anyone else in the market will match the Mariners offer, and I expect Adrian Beltre to be the Mariners starting third baseman next spring.

With Beltre under contract, the Mariners will turn to their #1 pitching target, Matt Clement. Hoping that a mediocre record will deflate interest and that other teams will be distracted by bidding wars for Pedro Martinez, Carl Pavano, and Brad Radke, I expect the M’s to come in with a midlevel offer of something in the 3 year, $18 million range. Clement won’t accept that, and negotiations will eventually lead to him signing a deal in the neighborhood of 3 years, $24 million with a 4th year team option and a $1 million plus buyout. Again, expect Clement’s 2005 salary to be quite a bit less than the average yearly value of the contract, perhpas in the $5-6 million range. If Clement decides to sign elsewhere, look for the M’s to offer a similar deal to Kris Benson.

Middle of free agency leading up to Winter Meetings through December 13th

By this time, the Mariners will have committed about $70 million to the roster, leaving about $15 million to fill out the roster. The last “main” piece will be either an outfielder or a first baseman, which will determine Ibanez’s position on the club in 2005. Expect the M’s to make an offer to Richard Hidalgo in the range of a 3 year, $18 million contract with incentives that would push it significantly higher. I expect Hidalgo to get a better offer, however, and the M’s to eventually make a deal with Arizona to acquire Shea Hillenbrand, who will earn about $3.5 million in arbitration next season to play as the everyday first baseman.

They also want to bring in a veteran shortstop as Jose Lopez insurance and will be willing to spend a couple million on a backup who can play several positions. Expect us to be the lucky winners of Deivi Cruz, probably for something in the 1 year, $2 million range.

The last bench spot will likely be filled with by an outfielder. The front office has a lot of Todd Hollandsworth fans, and he’s coming off a career year, but with a projected outfield of Ibanez, Reed, and Ichiro, the team probably needs a right-hander in this spot. Gabe Kapler is a potential target, and don’t count out Juan Gonzalez, despite his health problems. If he finds the market completely uninterested, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the M’s offer him a nonguaranteed contract with a ton of incentives. I’ll pencil in Kapler for $1 million here, but this spot is pretty fluid.

End of free agency, non-tender period

Due to the questionable health surrounding Pineiro and Guardado, I expect the M’s to take at least one flier on a free agent reliever released by another club. There are just too many possibilities to speculate, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the team picked up a non-tendered veteran and signed them to a low base salary, high incentive contract. Think Ron Villone, part two. It could be Villone himself.

So, what does this expected roster look like?

Position	Player		Salary
C	Wilson		1.0
1B	Hillenbrand	3.5
2B	Boone		9.0
3B	Beltre		9.0
SS	Lopez		0.3
LF	Ibanez		3.8
CF	Reed		0.3
RF	Ichiro		12.0
DH	Jacobsen	           0.3
C	Olivo		0.4
Util	Cabrera		1.5
Inf	Spiezio		3.1
OF	Kapler		1.0
Util	Cruz		2.0
			
SP1	Clement		6.0
SP2	Pineiro		4.2
SP3	Meche		3.0
SP4	Madritsch	           0.3
SP5	Moyer		7.5
Long	Franklin	           2.4
RHP	Putz		0.3
RHP	Hasegawa	           3.0
LHP	Sherrill	           0.3
Setup	Julio		0.5
Closer	Guardado             4.5
			
Total			79.2

There are some pretty prominant names not included in that final twenty five. Most obviously, Willie Bloomquist. I don’t expect him to be on the 25 man roster next spring. He may stick with the organization if he’s willing to go back to Tacoma, or they may designate him for assignment. Either way, Cabrera is likely going to inherit the main utility spot, with Deivi Cruz taking over the backup middle infield responsibilities. That leaves Bloomquist on the outside looking in. On the pitching side, there’s no room for Julio Mateo or Scott Atchison, though both could make the club if Guardado isn’t healthy or if Putz struggles in spring training. Atchison or Mateo could also be included in several deals, as their value to other clubs is likely higher than it is to the Mariners.

So, what do I think about this group? It’s a decent start, but it won’t make the playoffs next year. Beltre is a good building block, but he’s surrounded by too many easy outs in the line-up. The offense can be reasonably expected to get nothing from catcher or shortstop and needs to hope for average at best production from DH, center field, and left field. The bench is still going to be poor. At best, the team will finish in the middle of the pack in runs scored.

The rotation is improved, though questions abound. If Meche and Pineiro are healthy, it could be one of the better rotations in the league. If either one of them misses significant time, there’s trouble. The bullpen hinges on Guardado being healthy and Julio improving on his mediocre ’04 season. It’s an average at best group, but at least it costs a lot less than the average bullpens we’ve built in the past.

I’d probably suggest that this team could win 82-85 games, but there’s enough young talent to build around that its finally a team headed in the right direction. The acquistions I expect and won’t like are probably going to be short term moves without a big commitment.

This is what I expect from the club this offseason. It’s a cash outlay of around $24 million and a long term commitment to a free agent, both of which would be unprecedented in team history. There’s a first time for everything, right?

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