I still think he (Soriano) can start, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part. He’s already got the fastball, and the consensus seems to be that his slider came along quite nicely last season. That gives him two pitches, which obviously isn’t enough to succeed as a starter (at least not for long). That said, how many guys come along at age 23 with much more than even a servicable changeup? Not many. I’d like to see them make his third pitch a focus this year, but I think there’s still plenty of time for him to learn, especially considering he’s not likely to be in the starting rotation when the season starts. It’s too early at this point to give up on him as a starter and commit him exclusively to relief, in my opinion.
Of course, there’s also the news that he’s suffering from some sort of abdominal strain, which means he might fall behind a bit in camp (not that he needs a good camp to win a job, or anything).
Oh, and a hearty “Welcome Aboard!” to anyone finding us today for the first time thanks to Angelo Bruscas’ article in the P-I (featuring our own Derek!). We invite you to take off your coat, have a look around, and stay as long as you like.
Soriano’s made some comments about wanting to become Mariano Rivera. I guess if there’s a reliever to emulate, the multi-inning work of Rivera isn’t so bad, but… if you’re going to dominate, dominate as a starter.
I’ll toss this out to my fellow deckmates here: Does Soriano have the repetoire and requisite strength to take a regular turn in the rotation, or is he destined for relief as many think?
The PI’s got a nice story on the M’s blogosphere. My only quibble would be that the recommended blogs exclude Mariner Musings, which is good stuff.
From the rubbing-it-in department: the Pirates signed RF-R Raul Mondesi to a 1-year, $1.5m deal. Though a righty, Mondesi was a far better hitter than Ibanez last year, and cost many millions less to get. The M’s signing of Ibanez to an expensive multi-year deal continues to look like one of the crazier moves of any team this off-season.
Sooooooo Pocket Lint wrote a fine article that ran Sunday. And by fine I mean it also does a great job showing exactly how amazingly clueless the M’s management is.
The Mariners say they would have jumped in, spikes up, if they had known the Texas Rangers would be so generous in getting rid of the former Seattle shortstop.
Asked if Seattle would have gone after Rodriguez, Mariners president Chuck Armstrong called it “a no-brainer.”
Okay, one, you can’t jump into something spikes up unless you’re taking a header.
But here’s the point: Rodriguez almost went to the Red Sox. Clearly, he was available. I can’t believe they were so busy negotiating Ron Villone’s deal that nobody in the front office could have called the Rangers up to say “Hey, sorry the Red Sox deal fell through. We might be willing to take on his contract without dumping another on you… what do you need to make a deal?”
This is crazy. Armstrong later says that their reports were that the Rangers… reports? They read the paper? No one called and asked? Did their calling card run out of minutes?
“We offered him more than that, in terms of salary,” said Seattle CEO Howard Lincoln of the short-circuited negotiations to keep Rodriguez after the 2000 season.
Now, no one outside of the M’s is really privvy to what went on, but if you followed the story you know that the M’s did not offer more than *Alex will be paid* in terms of salary, and they certainly weren’t anywhere near on guaranteed years, and they didn’t like the escalator clauses either. Finnigan shockingly does mention this: that the M’s offer was 5/$95 ($19m/year). While strictly speaking Lincoln may be correct, from Alex’s side it wasn’t remotely close.
Finnigan also repeats this gem:
One old, but unconfirmed story is that Boras, who was unavailable to comment, recommended the club shorten its offer, so that his player would not be tied up so long and have a chance at a subsequent contract.
Here’s a thought: if it’s unconfirmed, don’t write it. This is beyond rumor mongering, and just a cheap shot.
Then he lionizes Lincoln for predicting the demise of the Rangers:
Lincoln also was prophetic when he added, “I think it is impossible to field a winning team when you pay a player as much as Texas is paying Rodriguez.”
That’s not the problem. Alex’s contract has never been the problem in Texas: it’s been everywhere else they spent money stupidly, from Chan Ho Park on down. They’re not a losing team because they overpaid the best player in the game, they’re a losing team because they’re crap. Perpetuating the easy myth that Alex’s contract hurts the Rangers helps the Mariners because they can use it as a cover for not pursuing or signing top-tier free agents.
Plus the news that the M’s might be after Alfonso Sorianio, who we now know is 28 and has probably peaked already, a deeply flawed hitter with a lot of potential who Ks all the time, as a possible center fielder. Soriano would be like Mike Cameron with 15 more HRs and no defense. Who could resist such temptation?
BA has posted their version of the Mariners top 10 prospects, and you can read Jim Callis’ overview and report on #1 prospect Felix Hernandez for free by following the link. While I appreciate their optimism surrounding King Felix, I had to chuckle at Jim’s line that Hernandez “just needs to learn how to pitch.” Well, that would be the most important thing to learn. It’s kind of like saying Lance Armstrong’s kid is the best cycling prospect in the world, and all he needs to do is learn to ride a bike.
Overall, Jim did a nice job with the top ten, and I only have a few quibbles. Calling Shin-Soo Choo the organization’s best defensive outfielder is either a tremdendous overvaluation of arm strength or simply incorrect information. Choo’s range in right field is average at best, he takes poor routes to the ball, and teammates have an impossible time communicating with him. They also say good things about Jose Lopez’s glovework, which is probably the product of organizational spin. He hasn’t been an above average defender in two years.
Also in the current issue of Baseball America is an article by the Tribune’s Corey Brock on the Mariners strategy for signing international players and eschewing the draft. If you are a BA subscriber, make sure you don’t miss it. If you’re not, you should be. Brock’s piece is a good read, which is the norm for Corey, who is a good writer and, (in the interest of full disclosure), a friend of the U.S.S. Mariner crew.
As an aside, anyone who is planning on being in Florida for spring training from March 13th-15th should email me. I’m going to be hanging out in the Grapefruit League for a long weekend, and always enjoy meeting up with readers. Suggestions on interesting places to eat in Vero Beach/St. Lucie are also welcome.
And, while I’m here, thanks to everyone who emailed me about email accounts. My old account came back to life, but I ended up opening a free account with fastmail.fm as a backup. I appreciate all the help. You guys rock.
99 Players*
or, Steinbrenner’s Song
Got a guy from the east, got a guy from the west
Got a guy who fields grounders lets ’em bounce right off his chest
Got a guy from the north, a guy from the south
Got another guy his whole career is one defensive drouth
A guy with a bat, a guy with a glove
A guy we all hate, and a guy we all love
A bench that sucks, a lineup with game
A guy over there, I don’t know his name
Is he even ours? I can’t keep track you see
Release that guy, I don’t like goatees
Word
I’ll play Alex at third
I’ll pay them all and field a team absurd
I’ve got a player with a knee that’s done
If he can’t field we take him to the shed with a gun
A player with hits, one takes a free pass
A player can’t do either but he’s got Yankee class
And I pay them all, I pay them crazily
And then I pay them more, that’s why they play for me
So if you’re having talent problems, I feel bad for you, son
I’ve got 99 players, AJ Hinch ain’t one
I got a guy who’s old, and none that’s new
Nick Johnson was young, and now he’s blue
A guy who’s fat, a guy who’s built
I signed some Scottish guy who plays left wearing a kilt
A guy who’s smart
A guy who ain’t
A guy who can rake
A guy who cain’t
I got a star player beloved in the Tokyo Dome
And some guy from Rome
I got a player who dogged games in Milwuakee
He’s cocky
(broke as a bum)
(most fun)
I’ve got players who hit for power
Players who don’t
Players who take walks
Players who won’t
Players who’re short
Players who’re tall
Guys set up — if we don’t win they’re taking the fall
And I pay them all, I pay them crazily
And then I pay them more, that’s why they play for me
So if you’re having talent problems, I feel bad for you, son
I’ve got 99 players, AJ Hinch ain’t one
[… and so forth]
* apologies to Ice-T/DJ Alladin
Hooray for the Future Forty! I’d love to announce a new Big Board, but there’s nothing doing on that front. But once we get those minor league assignments… oh just you wait and see. Muwahahahahaha.
Sorry, got carried away there.
Oh, and a special hello to Lonnie from a.s.b.s-m!
The first Future Forty of 2004 has been unveiled and is now available for your viewing pleasure. Our rankings of the organization’s 40 best prospects will be updated at the beginning of the month throughout the season. This list is determined through a combination of statistical analysis, personal scouting evaluations, second-hand scouting reports from well respected and trusted sources, discussions with individuals in the Mariners player development office, and major league officials from other teams. Prospect lists have become something of a fad, and there are lots of places you can turn to who will offer you their version of the Mariners farm system. I hope that the amount of work I put into this provides you with a reliable source of information that you can count on to be both accurate and informative. While the Future Forty itself is relatively short, the information used in compiling the list is substantial in depth, and questions about the list are always welcome.
Baseball America will be releasing their top 10 on their website on Friday, and it looks quite a bit different from what you see here. I won’t spoil the list, but they have Felix Hernandez ranked number one, which I simply cannot justify at this point. Rather than simply leaving the differences to be explained by the one sentence comment, below are in-depth looks at what I feel are the Mariners 10 best prospects.
1. Clint Nageotte, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Mid-90’s velocity, tremendous slider, ability to miss bats, success at each level
Weaknesses: Lack of a change-up, questionable willingness to learn, suspect mechanics
Potential: With an improved change-up and command, could be an all-star in the rotation
Downside: Move to bullpen a real possibility if he doesn’t improve areas of need
Positive Comparison: C.C. Sabathia
Realistic Comparison: Kelvim Escobar
Negative Comparison: Steve Karsay
2. Chris Snelling, Outfielder
Strengths: Quick bat, good contact ability, solid gap power, natural hitter
Weaknesses: Repeatedly injured, limited range after knee surgery, average speed
Potential: If he can find the time to develop, has the skills of a batting champion
Downside: Without improved plate discipline or power spike, best suited for backup role
Positive Comparison: Tony Gwynn
Realistic Comparison: Rusty Greer
Negative Comparison: David Dellucci
3. Jose Lopez, Shortstop
Strengths: Surprising power, contact ability, success at high levels despite youth
Weaknesses: Not in great shape, poor plate discipline, defense is slipping
Potential: Has the skills to be a power-hitting middle infielder in his prime
Downside: Move to third base could really harm value, low OBP could kill him there
Positive Comparison: Miguel Tejada
Realistic Comparison: Tony Batista
Negative Comparison: Antonio Perez
4. Travis Blackley, Left-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Change-up is an outpitch, curve has good potential, sets up hitters well
Weaknesses: Command of off-speed stuff needs improvement, high pitch counts
Potential: Solid #3 starter if he can cut down on pitches per batter
Downside: Fairly safe bet as far as pitching prospects go, but could always get hurt
Positive Comparison: Barry Zito
Realistic Comparison: Erik Hanson
Negative Comparison: Bruce Chen
5. Rett Johnson, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Keeps ball down, mixes pitches well, three solid pitches, improving command
Weaknesses: No strikeout pitch, average velocity, no dominating performances yet
Potential: Combination sinker and slider could make him solid ground ball machine
Downside: If he continues to allow contact at current rates, could be wildly inconsistent
Positive Comparison: Derek Lowe
Realistic Comparison: John Thomson
Negative Comparison: Matt Wagner
6. Shin-Soo Choo, Outfielder
Strengths: Solid across-the-board skills, patient hitter, organization likes him
Weaknesses: Poor defensive outfielder, lays off too many hittable pitches, slowing down
Potential: If power blossoms, could be a .300/.400/.500 corner outfielder.
Downside: Pitchers continue to take advantage of patience, never gets out of Double-A
Positive Comparison: Bobby Abreu
Realistic Comparison: Eric Byrnes
Negative Comparison: Chin-Feng Chen
7. Felix Hernandez, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Upper-90’s velocity, strikeout curveball, solid command for someone his age
Weaknesses: No third pitch yet, no experience against real competition
Potential: With his two plus pitches and command, could be an ace of any rotation
Downside: All teenage pitchers are huge risks; Ryan Anderson, anyone?
Positive Comparison: Bartolo Colon, before he ate David Wells
Realistic Comparison: Too soon to say. Need to see more.
Negative Comparison: Brien Taylor
8. Bobby Madritsch, Left-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Mid-90’s velocity, improved as season wore on, misses bats, ultra-competitive
Weaknesses: Inconsistent mechanics, mediocre offspeed stuff, average command
Potential: If he harnesses breaking ball, could be a #3 starter who destroys lefties.
Downside: Could get pigeon-holed as lefty-specialist, become a one out pitcher.
Positive Comparison: Randy Wolf
Realistic Comparison: Odalis Perez
Negative Comparison: Ron Villone
9. Cha Seung Baek, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Three average pitches, solid command, sets up hitters, throws strikes
Weaknesses: Below average velocity, lost years of development due to injuries
Potential: If stuff ever comes back and command stays, could be solid #4 starter
Downside: With his injury history, he’s nearly impossible to count on for innings
Positive Comparison: Brian Lawrence
Realistic Comparison: Steve Ontiveros
Negative Comparison: Roger Salkeld
10. Justin Leone, Third Baseman
Strengths: Terrific defensive player, patient hitter, solid power, decent athlete
Weaknesses: Not getting any younger, no experience above Double-A
Potential: If given 500 at-bats, could be league average player for next three years
Downside: Age will always be held against him, might not get a fair shot
Positive Comparison: Bill Mueller
Realistic Comparison: Joe Randa
Negative Comparison: Mike Lamb