Larry Stone and Bob Finnegan are hosting a chat over at Seattletimes.com right now. I was going to wait until the end to highlight the dramatic differences between these two, but this jewel just can’t wait:
Who do you think will be most improved this year in the Mariners rotation? — Mark C., Seattle
B. F.: The smart guess would be Ryan Franklin, if he gets more offensive help than he had last season, which is what the Mariners spent the winter trying to assemble. The longshot guess would be Freddy Garcia, going into his free-agent season.
Pocket Lint suggested, presumably with a straight face, that Ryan Franklin is “the smart guess” to improve in 2004. Coming off a season where was 9th in the American League in ERA, despite having terrible peripheral numbers. His success in ’03 was heavily dependant on the outfield defense, which is now dramatically worse. Yet, apparently, Finnegan feels he’s the most likely to improve. So, folks, prepare for the Ryan Franklin, AL Cy Young award campaign.
I realize that critical analysis isn’t required in the job-requirements of a beat writer, but my God, is Bob Finnegan just completely immune to intelligent thought when it comes to the game he spends his life following?
In response to my post below, I received an email from Michael Srihari, who runs DugOut Dollars, a site with extensive payroll information for every team in the majors. I’ve never seen anything approaching the detail he takes in breaking things down, including projected payrolls for 2005 and 2006, details on the vesting options and buyouts, benefits, luxary tax rates, and anything else you could imagine. It isn’t perfect (he had Ichiro’s payroll number at $11 million this year when its really $7.5 million), but that will get updated soon, I’m sure. Overall, just a tremendous resource. When we finally get around to updating our links, he’ll be getting one.
That didn’t take long. The Times quotes Bavasi as saying “We’ve heard that Pudge has agreed with Detroit”. The Detroit papers are reporting a deal is close, and could be announced tommorrow. Barring some kind of Aaron Sele-type negotiation nightmare, I think we can safely assume Pudge isn’t going to be a Mariner.
Of course, Finnigan doesn’t stop there, and reverts back to Mariners-shill, never even thinking to question the lies he’s being fed.
Although Sasaki walked away from $8 million guaranteed for 2004, the Mariners figure there is only $7 million available to spend on player acquisitions. The Mariners say they were $1 million over their projected $95 million payroll budget before Sasaki made his decision.
The Mariners have historically counted contract buyouts against their previous years payroll, so you have to state Sasaki’s guaranteed 2004 money as $9 million. And, the Mariners continue the trend of inflating their payroll at any given opportunity. The actual amount, before Sasaki’s departure, was around $93.5 million.
Subtract from that $2 million for use on possible in-season acquisitions, it leaves $5 million for immediate additions to the payroll via trade or free-agent signings.
Ten seconds ago, they had exceeded their $95 million payroll. Now, they magically need to have a $2 million buffer for in player acquisitions because Sasaki left? If they didn’t need this buffer a week ago, they don’t need it now.
Subtract $1 million to $1.5 million for a reliever to replace Sasak with left-hander Ron Villone thought to be a likely possibilit and there is $3.5 million to $4 million for offensive help.
Ron Villone, versus left-handers last year: .267/.342/.475
Ron Villone, versus right-handers last year: .221/.313/.388
His three years splits revert back to the norm, but only because right-handers pummeled him in 2001 and 2002. From 2000-2002, he was downright terrible. Last year, he was slightly above average, but still was ineffective in the role that the Mariners are hoping he would fill. Based on his talents, he should be getting a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. A guaranteed major league deal for Villone is a waste of money, and paying him $1.5 million is akin to lighting your neck hairs on fire just to see what it feels like.
In reality, the M’s got a $9 million surplus. They can use Pocket Lint to spin it as many ways as they want, but there is no reason for them to not spend $9 million on improving this club. It certainly needs improving, and throwing $4 million at Ron Villone and Raul Mondesi won’t accomplish anything other than unify the mob that will march on Safeco Field.
Derek’s thoughts echo those of our inbox right now, so some clarifications.
1. The offer I came up with was Winn, Justin Leone, Jose Lopez, and Rett Johnson for Beltran. If Baird mentions Rafael Soriano, you hang up the phone. Players like Soriano just don’t get traded, and there’s no reason to give him up.
2. The difference between Winn and Beltran’s salary is $5.5 million, but the Mariners are the one absorbing the more expensive player. We wouldn’t have to give them a dime, and there’s no way KC is sending us any money. This is one of the keys to the deal. Bavasi would have to convince Baird of the value that $5.5 million has. Send him graphs on how terrible Mike MacDougal was last year accompanied by pictures of Ugueth Urbina wearing a shiny world series ring and a giant poster showing Urbina’s 1.41 ERA after joining the Marlins last year. Then, remind him that Urbina is still available. Sell this trade as giving them the ability to acquire another impact free agent, so Baird sees it as two major leauge players and the three prospects.
3. Carlos Beltran won’t command as much money as Vlad. He just won’t. He’s an awesome player, but he’s never been an all-star, never hit 30 home runs in a season, only finished in the top 10 in MVP voting once, and never played in the playoffs. He simply doesn’t have the superstar aura that Guerrero does. Beltran also isn’t a right-handed power hitter (the type of player Safeco harms the most), isn’t a right fielder (necessitating Ichiro! to move to center), and is the speed-and-defense type of talent that the Marniers adore. I don’t think the non-pursuit of Guerrero at all reflects an unwillingness to sign Beltran, who I expect to top out at 5 years, $60 million next offseason.
4. If Beltran leaves anyways, and the team is wise enough to offer arbitration, they get at least one, possibly two, first round draft picks, to replace Lopez and Rett Johnson. Yes, I know, the team hates first round picks, but this still has to be a positive consideration for Beltran. The trade also eliminates Winn’s $3.75 million salary in 2005 from the roster, freeing up even more money to make a run at one of the multitude of attractive free agents (Glaus, Chavez, or Garciaparra, to name three).
5. If the Mariners pitchers had a problems allowing baserunners to steal at will, I might give you that Pudge’s improved arm would be a significant upgrade. But its not, and I don’t believe controlling the running game is nearly as important as most people think. However, the Mariners have an extremely fly-ball happy pitching staff, requiring excellent outfield defense behind them to succeed. Beltran is an enormous step ahead of Winn defensively, probably in the range of 10-15 runs, which could be the difference between the end of Ryan Franklin’s career and the smoke-and-mirrors run continuing. This is about building a complementary team, not just assembling an impressive collection of individuals. This team needs a good defensive center fielder, and Beltran is one of the better ones around.
6. The prospects I offered up are not the ones who will be saving the franchise from impending doom once the veterans retire. Justin Leone has no future as a Mariner. Rett Johnson, whom I am a big fan of, has no clear opening anytime soon. He’s stuck behind Soriano in a spot for the rotation in 2004, and will likely have been surpassed by Nageotte, Blackley, and possibly Felix Hernandez in 2005. He’s a right-handed arm in an organization awash with them. Jose Lopez hurts the most, since the team lacks position player prospects, but he’s not an irreplaceable talent. His conditioning issues are a legitimate concern, and at this point, its 50-50 if he can stay in the middle infield through his 25th birthday. Most observers are now penciling him at third base, where his bat simply doesn’t project to make him an impact player. He’s a good guy to have in the system, but not the kind of prospect you refuse to give up on. Remember the Reds valiantly holding on to Pokey Reese and Travis Dawkins before giving away Antonio Perez? In the end, all three have basically become pumpkins. Lopez’s value to the team is at least two years away, and may never come. He’s not worth losing a superstar in his prime over.
7. For the most popular email of the day answer, “would Kansas City make this move?” I think the answer is maybe, if you gave them a great sales pitch on how to put that $5.5 million surplus to use. Convince them of the value of an available free agent to their roster. Get Baird to see Winn + free agent + three prospects for one year of Beltran, and I don’t think he’ll get a better offer. Part of this may be because I believe Baird wants to trade Beltran, rather than suffer the let-him-leave-for-nothing (KC won’t offer arbitration) p.r. disaster next year. It would take a good salespitch, but its a good offer that could both help the Royals this year and in the future. It helps both teams.
8. I also don’t believe Pudge is “free”, talent wise. The difference between his expected $9-10 million salary and the extra $5.5 million the M’s would take on in the Beltran deal is enough to buy a legitimate replacement reliever for Sasaki’s roster spot, now occupied by Mike Myers, and possibly have enough left over to get a real platoon-partner for John Olerud. These are legitimate needs that the acquisition of Rodriguez will make nearly impossible, and lets be honest, there is no way Bavasi is creative enough to acquire answers to these problems without spending money.
9. Acquiring Rodriguez would necessitate that Ben Davis be given away, Carlos Guillen-style, for a minimum salary or non-40-man roster player. While Davis isn’t someone you lose sleep over losing, its another consideration in the negative column for Pudge versus Beltran.
Ah, but here’s the trouble with such a plan.
One year of Carlos Beltran will run the Mariners… say it’s Lopez, Rafael Soriano, Leone, and Rett Johnson, plus Winn to cover CF for them, plus the difference in Winn-Beltran salary, which’ll be… couple million. Then Beltran leaves because he’ll want a long-term deal and if the M’s weren’t considering giving one to Vlad, they won’t be giving one to Beltran either.
One year of Pudge costs a more $ and you get to keep all those guys. Having Soriano on the 2004 team alone makes it a wash, and if anyone on the M’s is smart enough to realize he needs to be in the $@#$@# rotation already, it’s not going to be close.
Also, I’m disagree that defensively the upgrade from Winn to Beltran is better than Wilson/Davis to Pudge. Pudge can still pick them like nobody’s business and he supresses the running game like a election-year prosecuter on smut.
Now ideally, we wouldn’t be having this conversation at all because the rest of the off-season would have been handled well enough that there wasn’t only one real gap in the lineup you can toss someone into. But we are, and that hole is the catching craptoon. I mean platoon.
If we really believe the M’s aren’t going to compete seriously this year, that their chance is to limp into the playoffs in a weakened division — if we’re not going to try and get Edgar a ring he richly deserves — why trade away the players who will keep the Mariners semi-competitive in the rubble of the Gillvasi year?
And I’d like to throw this out there for Howard Lincoln, who is tired of people always complaining that the M’s don’t spend enough money: your team makes more money than anyone outside the Yankees, and you play in a new stadium for free that I pay off every time I drink a beer within the nebulous confines of the district. The least you could do is endure Seattle’s entirely justified complaining in silence while you count your money.
Well, Bavasi is saying the right things about Pudge.
At the P-I, he’s quoted with “If it gets into three, four or five years, we’re not going to be comfortable.”
The Times throws in this quote: “Like anyone else, we have interest in him on a short-term basis. In our opinion, he has had his best years in short-term bursts. In situations where he has a contract coming up in a year or two, he has done well.”
While I like the fact that the M’s don’t sound willing to go more than two years, I feel obligated to point out that Bavasi is pretty much just wrong in the second quote. Here’s Pudge’s OPS+ (percentage above league average after including park effects) and EqA (BP’s formula for a players offensive contributions, also adjusted for park effects) for each of the past seven years:
Year: OPS+ EqA
1997: 114 .282
1998: 120 .290
1999: 125 .292
2000: 152 .318
2001: 130 .293
2002: 123 .295
2003: 124 .293
Thats remarkable consistency sandwiched around a career year at age 28, which was also shortened by injury. For kicks, I asked Nate Silver to run a PECOTA projection (sales pitch: PECOTA’s are available to Baseball Prospectus Premium subscribers and will be featured in BP2004, both of which you should purchase) for Ivan Rodriguez in 2004 based on playing in Safeco Field. Nate said he didn’t use a very heavy park effect for Safeco, so we may need to ratchet these down a bit, but PECOTA’s weighted mean (or best guess, essentially) for Pudge as a Mariner is .287/.344/.478, which is only a slight decrease from what he did last year. PECOTA projects Dan Wilson at .253/.295/.375 and Ben Davis at .249/.321/.413, for what its worth.
PECOTA likes Ben Davis a lot, and I think that projection might be a bit optimistic, but it doesn’t think the difference between Davis and Rodriguez in 2004 is going to be that dramatic. While its true that the 2003 model of the Wilson-Davis platoon was awful and Pudge would have been a humungous improvement last year, I don’t think the difference is likely to be as substantial in 2004. Pudge’s regression, plus even a limited bounceback by Davis makes blowing a ridiculous amount of money on Rodriguez a poor allocation of resources.
On the other hand, PECOTA suggests that Carlos Beltran would hit .284/.361/.491 in Safeco, which surprised me at how low those numbers are. That would represent a significant regression for him, and I’m guessing a large part of that is the Kauffman Stadium park factor being pretty rough on Beltran. This is one example why I’m not a huge fan of blanket park factors, and I’d expect Beltran to put up a line closer to .300/.400/.500, plus the added value of 35 steals at a 90 % rate and some tremendous outfield defense. PECOTA has Randy Winn at .279/.344/.425.
So, positional comparison:
Catcher: Rodriguez versus Davis:
.287/.344/.478 – .249/.321/.413. +.038 BA, +.023 OBP, + .065 SLG.
Center Field: Beltran versus Winn:
.284/.361/.491 – .279/.344/.425. +.005 BA, +.017 OBP, +.066 SLG.
Offensively, the improvements would be about the same, with perhaps a slight edge to Rodriguez because he would likely play more than Davis will, further reducing Wilson’s blackhole effect on the offense. However, all the non-hitting factors go to Beltran.
Baserunning: Huge advantage Beltran.
Defense: Advantage Beltran (positive effect on fly-ball pitchers a big plus).
Age/Upside: Huge advantage Beltran.
Finances: Huge advantage Beltran.
The differences between the 2004 salaries for Beltran and Winn is only $5.5 million, leaving a significant chunk of the Sasaki windfall to be spent filling the hole in the bullpen or improving the bench. Rodriguez would likely command at least $9-10 million for a short contract with the M’s. This would not only leave them with a maxed out budget, but cause them to have to give away Ben Davis in a Carlos Guillen-style “trade”, where you take someone else’s crap for no good reason.
Pudge isn’t a bad option, especially on a two-year contract. Carlos Beltran is just a much better option.
I’m sure some of you must have said “Boy, I can’t get enough of Derek, what with his column at Baseball Prospectus, his blogging here, and his constant complaining. I wish I could get more… but only if I could actually hear his voice, as if over a cross-country phone connection and then highly compressed into a lossy-but-internet-friendly-format.”
Now’s your chance! BP has posted the segments from my guest-host stint last week at Prospectus Radio. Thrill to the raw cliff-crumbling instability of my first time trying to host a radio show! Mock my overuse of certain terms and phrases when nervous! Estimate in gallons how much I sweated trying to pull this off. Look strangely at your speakers when my hand-selected new tunes replace the sports-talk standard issue hip-hop themes!
Scott McCauley’s intro
Larry Dierker, part one
Larry Dierker, part two
Everett Aquasox broadcaster Pat Dillon
Voice of the Rainiers Mike Curto
Scott McCauley’s outro, featuring another fine musical choice
“Future greats of tomorrow” indeed. Little Ed Wood moment for me there — “Future events such as these will affect you in the future…”
And I’d like to re-state my position that what the team really needs to do is offer Pudge enough money for him to take a 2-year deal. Honestly, if that’s $15m a year and he’d take a four-year deal for $40m, I’d still take the shorter deal. Unless Rodriguez wants to make the last two years vesting options based on some seriously aggressive goals (like, uh, finishes in the Top 10 in MVP voting or something) that would ensure he isn’t paid $10m in four years when he’s broken and unable to catch or stand in the batter’s box.
My point is that the upgrade both offensively and defensively over Wilson/Davis is so huge it’ll be worth it, and I’m loathe to give up Lopez, who might be Boone’s replacement soon, particularly considering that barring some insane chain of events, this is a team that needs to get younger in the coming years… oh, who am I kidding? At this rate, Gillvasi’s going to have the team get dramatically worse and more veteran-y every year and this might be the only decent shot to even get into the playoffs at all.
After Kaz signs the papers later today, the Mariners will designate him for assignment and place him on irrevocable waivers. This will remove him from the 40-man roster and clear his salary from the budget. While there is a 48-hour waiver period, the Mariners do not have to wait until that period is over to begin negotiating with the pot-of-gold that this situation has left them with. Whether Sasaki gets claimed by another team or not (and he won’t) will not affect his deal with the M’s. Theoretically, that $9.5 million should be in play starting today. All signs point towards the Mariners using it to make a run at Pudge Rodriguez, which I’m against, making it even more likely that the deal will be completed. You just don’t sign 32-year-old catchers to four year contracts. I wouldn’t give Pudge more than two years, and I can’t imagine he’d take a two year deal from us over a four year deal from Detroit.
However, the M’s have to spend this windfall or the public relations nightmare will grow exponentially. It may be wise to hold several million back for a trade-deadline acquisition, but the fans have been conditioned to believe that this team won’t make a trade in July, and will see a promise of future spending as a shallow attempt for the owners to pocket the money. Even if this is not true, faith in management has been shattered, and the Mariners will face a humungous backlash if the money isn’t spent before spring training. So, in that vein, what should they do?
Option 1A: Trade for Carlos Beltran.
This is the dream scenario, and perhaps the only one that could rescue this entire offseason and make the Mariners favorites in the AL West again. Beltran was 14th in the AL last year in Runs Above Position, marking him as one of the elite offensive players in the league. When you factor in his defensive prowess in center field, he was easily one of the ten best players in the league, and you could make an argument that he was in the top six or seven. He doesn’t turn 27 until after opening day, meaning he is entering the prime of his career. Unlike Raul Ibanez, his numbers weren’t greatly inflated by Kauffman Stadium. He’s historically much better in the second half, and that matters to some people (though not me). He’s also hit well at Safeco Field in 34 at-bats, and again, that matters to others. He’s the best baserunner in the game, having been successful on 150 out of 170 career attempts for a remarkable 88 % stolen base percentage. In the past 4 years, he is 123 for 135, or a ridiculous 91 % mark. All of his indicators are improving and nearly every projection system out there thinks he’s in for a monster, MVP type season. Toss in the fact that he’s a terrific defensive center fielder, which will have a positive cascade effect on the pitching staff, and he is the perfect addition to this team. Tremendously talented, entering his prime, on the cusp of superstardom but still not completely appreciated, and skilled at every aspect of the game. These types of players don’t become available very often.
Therein lies the rub. While Beltran is the perfect fit, most people assume that he simply isn’t available, or at least not for a reasonable price. The Royals believe they can contend in the Worst Division in Sports, and signed Juan Gonzalez to complement an offense that needed a lift. Trading their best player wouldn’t fit with the rest of their offseason moves, designed to contend in 2004. However, Beltran is a free agent at the end of the year, is advised by Scott Boras, and the Royals have next to no hope of retaining his services. Allard Baird, GM of the Royals, has repeatedly and recently been quoted as saying that he has “to be willing to listen”, but “for anything to happen, I need a return that helps us in the short term and in the long term.” Basically, Baird wants to receive enough talent to insure that his team can still compete in 2004 and replenish the team with young talent greater than what he would receive in compensation for Beltran signing with another team (assuming the Royals offered arbitration, which is not a sure bet).
Obviously, the Mariners would include Randy Winn in any trade. He is a Royals-style player, and would be attractive with the new, two-year contract he signed during the offseason. He is due $3.5 million this year, and $3.75 million next year, so the financial savings for the Royals would be significant, allowing them to acquire another mid-level free agent to help in their pennant chase. However, Winn is still a far cry from Beltran, and Baird has been quoted as desiring a major league ready third baseman, second baseman, and catcher in the past year. The Mariners have effectively blocked Justin Leone for the remainder of his useful years, so adding him to the trade adds little value. He would essentially be a throw-in. Ben Davis’ usefulness to the Royals expired when they signed Benito Santiago to a two-year contract, so don’t expect him to have any value to Baird. The Mariners lack a major league ready second baseman, but you can be certain that Jose Lopez would help increase the odds of this trade going down. While Lopez is considered the Mariners shortstop of the future, I wouldn’t hesitate to include him in the deal. He is at least two years away, and has a similar skillset to a great number of failed prospects. His plate discipline and conditioning are legitimate concerns, and I have a hard time seeing him as more than a Tony Batista type player right now. Adding in a pitching prospect the caliber of Rett Johnson, Travis Blackley, or even Clint Nageotte is not something you should do lightly, but all three would have value to the Royals as potential 2004 contributors and the future value that Baird will require.
So, essentially, the Royals would be looking for a package of something like Winn, Lopez, R. Johnson (to pick one), and Leone for Beltran. I know some will scream that the price is too high to pay, but I make that deal, and I don’t have any regrets. Carlos Beltran is a difference maker, and he’s the only one in the deal who will ever have anything close to an MVP type season. He is the type of player you overpay for.
Over the next few days, I’ll run down my list of other options, though Beltran should be the one in the sights. You do everything you can, within reason, to acquire him, and only move on to the rest of the bunch when you are convinced that you cannot strike a deal with Kansas City.
New M’s blog on the M’s minor leagues: Mariner Minors.
Also new out there:
Sons of Buhner. If you thought I wrote long posts, check these dudes out.
Mariner Optimist. Which neatly divides the Blogosphere into optimist/pessimist camps, which I think (and have gone on about for some length in email) is wrong (on account of… well never mind, no one cares what I think about this…). It’s his blog though, he’s free to list me in the “Cranky Internet Columnist” section if he feels like it.
Which brings up a point: if you’ve got a M’s blog and we’re not pointing to it, there’s one reason: we haven’t updated it yet. Feel free to drop us a note. I’d like to offer more… categorized listings, but generally speaking, updating links is way, way down on our priority list, so it doesn’t get done frequently. Which, uh, is part of why I put off adding links at all for so long, because I knew I wasn’t going to be able to keep up on this stuff. So bear with us.
Someone could actually write a blog about the different M’s blogs by this point. To think that just a couple months ago… (sniff)… I’m just so happy…