What goes better with a new Future Forty than an updated Big Board? My thoughts exactly. In addition to a few other minor changes, please welcome the Everett AquaSox to the party. I haven’t gotten around to listing the rookie level Peoria Mariners yet, mostly because they go through so many players that it scares me. In any event, click, enjoy, and e-mail me if you see something that doesn’t look quite right. Finally, my apologies to San Antonio LHP Justin Lamber, who for some reason has been left off the Missions’ roster all season. Sorry Justin!
Good news; I’ve updated the Future Forty for the month of July. Yeah, I know I’m a few days early, but I didn’t think anyone would complain. The top of the list remains largely unchaged, but there are some big movers and shakers. Ryan Anderson falls off the list after his 3rd surgery, Ryan Christianson drops nearly 20 spots, and 17-year-old Felix Hernandez debuts all the way up at #13. Get used to hearing his name folks, because the M’s absolutely love this kid. He’s been referred to as the best arm they’ve ever signed internationally. They’re going to baby him in Everett this year, but he’s got a world of potential.
Anyways, check out the entire list and feel free to drop me a line with any comments or questions.
Oh, and just because we’re not sure Arthur Rhodes can protect a SIX RUN LEAD with 2 outs in the 9th inning, lets go bring in Jeff Nelson and play the matchups. Because its not like Rondell White has had any kind of success against Jeff Nelson lately…
Yet, the next time we trail by a run in the 7th inning, we’ll see Matt White trotting out to the mound. Just awful. Might as well let Bloomquist DH and hit him cleanup.
The San Diego Padres have scored the second fewest runs in the National League, averaging under 4 per game. The Mariners have a 5 run lead with 4 outs to go, and its time for Bob Melvin to go to the bullpen. Who does he go to? Arthur Rhodes, of course.
This is a team that scores 3.9 runs when given 27 outs, and we’re afraid that they might score 5 runs when given 4 outs in Safeco Field? Get a grip, Bob. This was the perfect time to give Rafael Soriano (remember him?) some work. Instead, Melvin’s insane usage of the bullpen continues. Earlier in the year, I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for being a rookie manager, but he’s not getting any better. Somebody, anybody, sit this man down and explain to him how to use a bullpen.
Pocket Lint Finnigan offers some interesting stuff in today’s Mariners notebook at the pop-up-tastic Seattle Times site.
Mariners deny Matt White was waived yesterday — which makes sense, this didn’t show up on any of the transaction listings. From what I’ve heard, this rumor originated in an AOL baseball chat room where Larry LaRue of the Tacoma Tribune is said to frequent and may have said (typed) something. Eeeeeeeeeyup. So here’s the good part:
“But, as one American League scout said last night, “The ability is in there, but he’s got to go down (to the minor leagues) and pitch. He’s still overmatched at the big-league level.” ”
Yeaaaaah, and as Finnigan points out, problem with that is that he can’t go to the minors without putting him on waivers, where the M’s might lose him, as much as that seems unlikely given White’s jack-tasticness. Also, if anyone can provide me of any evidence that Matt White is talented enough to worry about losing, please drop us a line, because I’m not seeing it.
The other great nugget in the notebook was Melvin’s comment on why he didn’t have CrapLemore bunt with Cammy on 3rd and one out:
“”That’s not my style, to bunt to tie,” the manager said. “I like to let my guys swing and drive in the runs. It makes you look like you’re pulling out all the stops just to tie if you bunt there. ”
IT IS NOT YOUR– ARRRGGHHHHH!!!! LIAR HEAD!! ME DEREK SMASH MONITOR!! ROOOAAAR!!!
The Mariners have a great bullpen and a great offense. If Melvin’s going to bunt all the time in insane situations — bunting runners on 1,2 to 2,3 when down by two runs, just to harp on that choice — the least he could do is bunt to tie the game up and send it into extra innings, where the superior bullpen and hitting will puts the odds dramatically in your favor.
You know why Melvin didn’t bunt for a tie? I’ll tell you the secret. Make sure no one else is around and lean in real close to the monitor. Closer, closer….
Melvin doesn’t believe in ties. Keep it to yourself, I don’t want other teams figuring this out.
If the team’s ahead, spare no expense to win that game. Behind? Might as well pull the team from the field and take the forfeit. And ties? You’re not ahead, so they’re worthless too. Now, if he sticks Mateo in a tie game and the team pulls ahead, then it’s time for win-at-all-costs, but he doesn’t expect that or even think about it.
Minor League Highlights for Wednesday, June 25
Tacoma was idle, as the entire Pacific Coast League had the day off.
San Antonio 4, Arkansas 0. The Missions cruised to victory behind the dominant pitching of RHP Clint Nageotte (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 12 K, who improved his record to 8-2 with the win. 1B A.J. Zapp was 3-4 with a double, driving in a run and scoring another to provide more than enough offense for Nageotte. SS Jose Lopez added two hits including a double, 3B Justin Leone tripled, and LF Jaime Bubela stole a pair of bases.
Inland Empire wrapped up the California League All-Star break with another day off. The 66ers return to action today against blah blah blah.
Peoria 4, Wisconsin 3. The Timber Rattlers managed just two hits in the game, a single each for CF Gary Harris and C Rene Rivera. They did score a pair of unearned runs thanks to a Peoria error and actually led 3-0 after two innings, but were unable to hang on for the victory. LHP Miguel Martinez (2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K) took the loss in relief of LHP Cesar Jimenez (5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K), who left the game with the score tied at three.
Spokane 4, Everett 1. The AquaSox continue to struggle offensively when it comes to scoring runs, though they did out-hit Spokane 8-4 in the game. 2B Nick Orlandos, hitting leadoff, had three of those eight hits including a double. RHP Beau Hintz started, did his best Nuke LaLoosh impression, and also took the loss for Everett (4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 6 K).
Mariners 9, Brewers 7. 1B Luis Soto led the offense with a single, a double and three RBIs, and CF Samuel Bradford Jr., SS George Sandel, RF Michael Wilson and 3B Craig Hern each added a pair of hits. Sandel also stole three bases, giving him four on the young season.
Oh, and I know this is a Mariners blog, but its Seattle related, and I need to get this off my chest before I go to bed:
Nick Collison. Luke Ridnour. Willie Green? To quote Bill Simmons, I will now light myself on fire.
I mean, you couldn’t have screwed this draft up anymore if you had tried. A soft unathletic power forward, an out of control transition point who couldn’t stop me from scoring 30, and yet another shooting guard. You know, thats just what I was thinking the Sonics needed.
Alright, back to baseball.
Alex was here for one full season of Safeco Field-2000.
That year, he hit .272/.406/.502 in 265 at-bats when the M’s were at home.
On the road, he hit .356/.433/.702 in 289 at-bats.
So, thats 80 points of batting average, 30 points of on base percentage, and 200 points of slugging percentage. Yea, Alex did relatively well in Safeco. A .900 OPS is nothing to sneeze at, especially from a shortstop. But its not the huge earthshattering upgrade, either. Guillen’s line at Safeco this year is .308/.407/.423 for an .830 OPS.
I don’t want to make it sound like I don’t think Alex would be an improvement. Obviously, he’s an awesome player, and I don’t even think he’s overpaid. However, if you’re asking me if I’d trade Guillen, Soriano, Nageotte, and Lopez for him, the answer would be no. I’d trade Guillen for him straight up. I might even throw in Ryan Franklin. But I wouldn’t give up a lot in return for a player who is going to provide what we already have; hall of fame hitting on the road that is greatly diminished when we come home. The M’s need more left-handed bats that will be able to yank the ball down the right field line and avoid Safeco’s death valley in left center field.
Dave — I think Alex did well in Safeco when he was here (though I can’t find historical splits and I’m on deadline for something here so I can’t stooge around and look). And I like him. So there.
More on bullpen usage:
Rany Jazayerli did a great study for Baseball Prospectus a while back that talks about when it’s best to use your ace relivers. His conclusion:
—-
So how should a team prioritize the use of its best reliever?
Home Away
1) Top 9th, lead by 1 (.170) 1) Bottom 9th, lead by 1 (.223)
2) Top 9th, tied (.160) 2) Bottom 8th, lead by 1 (.158)
3) Top 8th, lead by 1 (.123) 3) Bottom 9th, tied (.155)
4) Top 8th, tied (.115) 4) Bottom 8th, tied (.122)
5) Top 7th, lead by 1 (.096) 5) Bottom 9th, lead by 2 (.113)
6) Top 7th, tied (.092) 6) Bottom 7th, lead by 1 (.111)
7) Top 9th, lead by 2 (.080) 7) Bottom 8th, lead by 2 (.108
—-
That’s just a summary, too — look closely at the tables and you’ll see how ridiculous it is to push your relievers into far-ahead situtations: protecting a three-run lead is far less valuable than any tied or trial-by-one situation, and most trail-by-two and some early trail-by-three situations.
Melvin’s fixation on lead protection has already hurt the team and will continue to do so.