Mariners 8th-most valuable franchise

April 21, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 21 Comments 

Forbes team valuations are out. The team’s value didn’t go up much last year at all, but Forbes has them tied for 5th in revenue with $179m.

Value of the team? $428m.

I have some particular quibbles with the article and some of the conclusions, but let me just skip those and note this: for all the poor-mouthing the team does, they’re making money in two ways:
– the team’s profitable
– the value of the team continues to rise

A lot of the M’s whinging is like someone who owns a great stock — say it’s returned 10% on their investment annually — complaining that they’re only getting 2% dividends every year.

Now what’s really interesting about this is that two 90-loss seasons hurt them pretty badly: the value of the team didn’t go up that much since Forbes last looked at this. You can see that dropping attendance has had a real impact on the team’s finances. But if two years of horrible seasons means a 3% increase in value and $7m in the pocket, that’s not bad at all.

Update: Maury Brown’s got a nice article on what’s interesting in the Forbes numbers.

Bobblehead fever forces fans to remain at home

April 21, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 35 Comments 

(hopefully they’ll recover in time to collect their swag)

Greg Bishop in the Times writes about crazy bobblehead fever. Looking at their picture, this may be the worst-looking likeness of Ichiro yet. That’s an old picture on the Times site: here’s the new one.

The Go 2 Guy, who generally doesn’t get much love or links from us, offers a gem today on the subject of low attendance:

“I never thought I’d see the day where there was less than 20,000,” said utility man Willie Bloomquist. “(Tuesday night) was the first time I’ve walked out for a game and gone, ‘Wow.’ It’s a little odd being able to hear conversations with fans.”

“Really?” I wondered. “What did they say?”

“You (expletive) suck, Bloomquist!” Bloomquist said.

That’s not going to be topped this season.

More aggressive baserunning analysis

April 20, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 19 Comments 

I’m going to stand on the shoulders of giants, as some scientist guy said.

Tom Tippett wrote a 2002 article on the impact of speed that gets into aggressive baserunning and Ichiro.

Today, I read an article on Baseball Prospectus by Dan Fox (“Baserunning, in two acts” subscription required) which build on a set of articles he wrote at the Hardball Times:
Circle the Wagons, Running the Bases Part I, Part II, and Part III

Part III uses run expectency in much the same way I started, but gets a little nuttier with it.

The short version of the BP article is that the Mariners were really good at baserunning last year, and there’s not a lot of room for improvement. Moreover, to sum the whole thing up, you have to be successful a lot to make it worthwhile and, as you’d expect, it depends a great deal on the game situtation.

Anyway, it’s good reading.

Game 17, Rangers at Mariners

April 20, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 382 Comments 

Joel Pineiro brings his 88 MPH fastball to face Vicente Padilla and the Rangers. While we’ve said our peace about Pineiro and his new junkballing ways, it is worth noting that he’s posted a 1.79 G/F rate during his first three starts, a 40 percent improvement over his 1.29 G/F last year. The three keys to pitching success are throw strikes, miss bats, and keep the ball on the ground. If you can do two of those three, you’re probably okay. Right now, Pineiro’s throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground, offsetting his inability to make anyone swing and miss at the crap he’s throwing up there.

For the Rangers, Padilla is pretty much the opposite; recently, his strikeout rates have gone up a bit, while his control and G/F rates have gotten worse.

This is a battle of pretty mediocre pitchers whose reputations outweigh their abilities. So, after slagging them both, expect a pair of perfect games.

Live Game Notes

April 20, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 123 Comments 

I might not be a unique snowflake, and I might not have seen Ray Allen’s record-setting performance, but I will be able to tell my great-grandnieces that I was part of the smallest crowd in Safeco Field history.

The stadium’s emptiness was obvious before you even entered. Free parking was plentiful. There was no waiting for walk-up tickets. You could hear every word of the TV broadcast while entering, because the crowd noise was Marcel Marceau-esque.

All that would change, of course, as the improbably rally got started. But that was three hours after The Lovely Wife and I strolled out to the right field bleachers. In the meantime, I noticed a few things:

* 17,613 was the announced attendance, the lightest yet, and there’s no way 17,000 people showed up. Wide swaths of seats were uninhabited. I’d put it closer to 12,000 if I had to guess.

* The minimal meat in the seats enabled one to hear virtually everything other fans were saying and doing. This ranged from the sophomoric (a guy who looked like the unholy offspring of John Elway and Secretariat repeatedly informing Kevin Mench that he “sucked” and “is tubby”) to the heartwarming (a group of five young women conspiring to shout “ICHIRO!!!” all at once, and then wave at the right fielder. He shot a glance their way, inspiring many blushes and giggles).

* Why not walk Hank Blalock in the seventh inning? It sets up the double play and prevents your right-handed pitcher from facing a left-handed batter that has hurt you already. Blalock’s ensuing two-run single sent about a third of the Mariner faithful scurrying for the exits, not that there were many to spare.

* Nice to see Roberto Petagine get a meaningful at-bat.

* Adrian Beltre still looked utterly lost for two of his four plate appearances. It was, however, nice to see him finally come up with an extra-base hit, and to be fair, he narrowly missed another when he smoked a loud foul the first time up. Note: Scott Spiezio has one more home run than Beltre does, Bronson Arroyo two more.

* Not that you need me to tell you this, but Kenji Johjima is for real, and is well on his way to becoming a fan favorite. He can’t run, so he will ground into some double plays, but he hits the ball hard an awful lot.

* Jamie Moyer looks like he is throwing wads of tissue paper. Not wet wads of tissue paper: bone-dry wads of tissue paper.

So yes, I passed up a chance to see Felix pitch, instead watching a junkballer more than twice his age — and got to see a win powered by a Carl Everett walk-off home run. I guess Joaquin Andujar was right. The most important word in English is “youneverknow.”

Game 16, Rangers at Mariners

April 19, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 458 Comments 

RHP Kevin Millwood v LHP Jamie Moyer. 7:05, Fox Sports Northwest.

After last night’s offensive outburst, Carl Everett is hitting .213/.339/.404. This amazing resurgence raises a question: how well does Carl Everett have to hit for me to be happy or, more generally, for people to shut up about how bad he is?

To answer the first question, Carl Everett’s not going to make me happy. Let’s move on.

I think the USSM author consensus (as much as we ever have one) was that Everett would probably hit around .260/.320/.425 with a good chance for a nasty collapse. That’s bad for a DH, though not horrible — the AL average DH last year hit for another 20 points of OBP and 15 points of OBP, which doesn’t sound like all that much, but actually is.

If Everett hit that, a lot more of the criticism would be focused on the management for giving him that contract, and people would be particularly concerned over whether his option’s going to vest for 2007. Grover should come under criticism every time he allows Everett to hit right-handed.

What would it take for people to stop carping about the deal? That’s an interesting question. Assume you can get a bad DH for free (we certainly saw some candidates bob along the creek past us this spring). To get $3.4m of value out of Everett, using a nice round (and, helpfully, pretty close to the truth) $1m/win, he has to hit like 2005 Raul Ibanez: .280/.355/.436.

At that point, you’ve broken even on performance from the slot, but then we have to remember we’re downgrading left… but I think if Everett hits .280/.355/.436 no one would be complaining about the value of his contract. And then we can complain about everything else that’s wrong with bringing Carl in.

Random Mariner mid-week news

April 19, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 91 Comments 

Guardado hurts inside. You’ll hurt inside if you read Steve Kelley’s column on Beltre. In the PI’s notebook, there’s the same Eddie-type story, but you also get Gil Meche’s decreased velocity, Hargrove on Beltre.

Oh, and Hargrove says it’s not a center-field platoon.

On ESPN.com, Nate Silver puts King Felix #8 on his list of baseball’s most valuable players.

Game 15, Rangers at Mariners

April 18, 2006 · Filed Under Game Threads · 366 Comments 

7:05. Koronka v Hernandez. KSTW for TV, or you can walk down to the stadium and get a nice ticket still.

How will you celebrate Felix day? Other than taking the server down by posting a ton of comments. You rascals. Go buy some USSM T-shirts.

Premature Report Card

April 18, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 169 Comments 

Well, the season is officially 8.64 percent over with. With the first 14 games in the books, we can officially begin to engage in small sample size theatre grading, where we make premature and most likely wrong characterizations about a the next 148 games of the season based on what we saw the first two weeks.

But, let’s be honest, it’s fun. So, on we go.

Catchers: A+

Kenji Johjima has been everything you could have hoped for and more. He’s making solid, consistent contact, driving the ball, working the count, and basically being the best hitter on the team. He’s also not taking days off, which means less Guillermo Quiroz and Rene Rivera, which is always a good thing. We loved the Johjima signing at the time, and there’s no reason to love it any less now. If he plays like this all season, he’s an MVP candidate. Even with an expected fall off, he was a great addition.

First Base: C

On the positive side, Richie Sexson is still healthy and he’s driven in a bunch of runs. On the negative side, there’s, well, everything else. 3 walks and 17 strikeouts in 53 at-bats? Did he beat down Randall Simon and steal his plate discipline? The lack of contact has driven down his average, and in turn, his on base percentage, both of which are well below what we’d expect. Thankfully, we should be use to Sexson being a streaky hitter, and I’m not worried. Just stay healthy and hit bombs. And occassionally draw a walk, too, okay?

Second Base: A

Jose Lopez has been as advertised; an aggressive hitter with above average power and solid defense at second base. His average will fluctuate, and his value will be determined by whether he hits .250 or .300, but he’s going to be a contributor to the M’s thanks to his power. He’s settled in at the #2 hole for now, but I doubt that lasts the season.

Shortstop: B

Okay, so, Betancourt’s not hitting well. .227 with one walk in 44 at-bats is a great way to kill a bunch of rallies. But half of his hits are doubles, and he’s been driving the ball with more authority than the cliched slap-hitting shortstop. The singles will come, and when they do, his average will raise to the .260-.280 range. Combine that with his other worldly abilities in the field and you have a terrific shortstop.

Third Base: F-

Adrian Beltre has been so unbelievably terrible at the plate that it’s been almost impossible to believe. Forget about 2004 for now – he’s looked like a carcas of what he was last season, when he was as bad as he’s ever been as a professional. The glaring problem is his pitch recognition skills, as he stares at 88 MPH meatballs down the heart of the plate while flailing at breaking balls around his ankles. I have never seen a major league hitter look this bad at the plate. Not Bloomquist, not Gipson, no one. Pitchers don’t look this confused. I’d have no problem ordering Beltre to watch 10 hours of video a day until he learns how to pick up the spin of a baseball coming out of the pitchers hand.

Left Field:C

Raul Ibanez continues to slap singles through holes, hitting for a high average and being a productive part of the offense even without significant power or a great approach at the plate. He’s also terrible defensively, and his play in left field has been gut wrenching at times. The decision to keep Raul roaming the outfield while Matt Lawton DH’d was mind numbing, but we’ll get to coaching in a minute.

Center Field: C

Jeremy Reed’s new nickname; The Anomoly. Throughout his career, he’s flashed a variety of skills, though he never seems to be able to use them simultaneously. He became well known when he posted absurd walk/strikeout rates in Winston-Salem and then hit .400 in Birmingham, but he failed to show significant power in the minors. Now? He’s shown some pop, is driving the ball with authority, and is struggling to get singles or command the strike zone. A 2/10 BB/K for Reed? Really? Odds are he’ll come around, the walks will go up, and hopefully the power stays, but right now, who knows?

Right Field: D

At some point, Ichiro’s unique skills are going to disappear, and he’s going to be a terrible major league player. I’m pretty sure that point hasn’t come yet, but he’s hitting .190/.277/.276 and posting a 1.00 G/F rate, the lowest of his career. As Jeff Sullivan has pointed out, Ichiro’s success is directly tied to his ability to whack the ball on the ground. Until he gets back to hitting worm burners, we have a really expensive out machine leading off. At least he still plays defense, unlike…

DH: F-

A DH who is hitting .163/.308/.349 is a problem. When he comes with a veteran reputation that keeps his manager running him out there on a daily basis in the face of better options, he becomes a plague. Carl Everett hasn’t been a good hitter in several years, but the Mariners are going to continue to let him rot in the DH spot until they’re convinced he’s done. We were convinced of that before they signed him. Let’s hope Mike Hargrove comes around quickly.

Bench: B

Roberto Petagine is 2-4 with a double, a home run, and a walk as a pinch hitter. He has a long history of smoking every pitcher he sees, and tore the cover off the ball in spring training. He has 0 starts. Meanwhile, Joe Borchard, Willie Bloomquist, and Matt Lawton are finding their way into the line-up when the regulars get a day off. So while the bench has played rather well, their usage has been abysmal, which drags down the grade. But, again, we’ll get to coaching in a little bit.

Rotation C

Moyer and Pineiro have ridden their strike-throwing junkball ways to success, Jarrod Washburn has been great and terrible, Felix has just been terrible, and Gil Meche still sucks. Thankfully, no one believes Felix is going to continue to be terrible, and once his velocity returns to the high-90s, he’ll be dominating again. So there’s hope here, if Moyer and Pineiro can continue to win with smoke and mirrors, that the rotation won’t be quite as bad as feared.

Bullpen: B+

Guardado’s walk off yesterday notwithstanding, the team’s relievers have essentially been quite good. J.J. Putz, since taking my advice and throwing his splitter more frequently, has been unhittable, posting a crazy 14/1 K/BB rate in 7 1/3 innings while still maintaining his groundball dominance. Soriano has looked terrific while showing mid-90s velocity again, and Sherrill has been dominating when he can get the ball over the plate. Those three offer legitimate late game arms that inspire some confidence, and Guardado and Mateo are not useless, though they have appeared to be at times. The pen will be fine.

Coaching: F

Hargrove’s players aren’t big fans of his. The front office doesn’t love the guy. The fans have turned on him. He makes lousy, lousy, lousy in-game management decisions. He has no flexibility, refuses to use his roster optimally, and is a slave to common wisdom while trying to avoid any kind of public criticism. The sooner he’s removed from his position, the better, and this from a guy with a long stance of supporting the idea that managers in general don’t matter.

Overall: B+

6-8 against four of the best teams in baseball while positing a positive run differential? I’ll take that every time. The team is staying afloat despite terrible performances from its stars, so unless each elite player the M’s have is going to collapse all at once, there is serious room for growth. If the gains made by the supporting cast be sustained to any extent and Ichiro, Beltre, and Felix return to any semblance of their past glory, this team could be a lot of fun to watch. There are definite reasons for optimism in what we’ve seen so far.

Minor League Game Thread: Tacoma @ Fresno

April 17, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners · 27 Comments 

Since the M’s played this morning, there’s no excuse not to listen to Mike Curto call the series finale in beautiful Fresno at 7:05 pm. Jesse Foppert goes against Brian Cooper. Recent reports on Foppert have been terrible, so let’s hope for a different pitcher to take the hill tonight.

And, just for those wondering about minor league small sample size theatre:

Shin Soo Choo: .387/.457/.581 in 31 at-bats
Asdrubal Cabrera: .333/.333/.500 in 15 at-bats
T.J. Bohn: .290/.389/.484 in 31 at-bats

And on the other end of things:

Mike Morse: .200/.243/.371 in 35 at-bats
Adam Jones: .200/.226/.300 in 30 at-bats.
Greg Dobbs: .333/.432/.667 in 30 at-bats

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