Horacio Ramirez, a retrospective
It’s official, though I wouldn’t believe it until his turn comes up and someone else takes the mound: loyalty has its limits in the case of Horacio Ramirez versus the major leagues.
Sure, you’re thinking, it’s long overdue. We were whining about the pickup from the start, and then pretty much kept at it all season long until we got tired of it and then everyone started complaining we were focusing too much on the royal screwing they were giving Adam Jones.
Ramirez’s season line is startlingly bad. He’s started 20 games and given the team 98 innings. Not even five innings a start. Wretched strikeout rate, without a decent walk rate or avoiding enough home runs to even contain the damage. How does a pitcher that ineffective, who can’t get that deep into games continue to be given the ball? Loyalty, right. To him, not the fans. Or the other players.
8-7 in 20 games. 98 IP, 139 H, 13 HR, 42 BB, 40 K. 7.16 ERA. In fairness, he’s been a little unlucky – his FIP’s 5.46, for instance. But then, as we’ve said, FIP’s not good at measuring pitchers who aren’t throwing major-league quality stuff.
When should it have been apparent that Horacio Ramirez was not any good? Let me use game scores to produce a handy graph. Here’s game scores in a nutshell: 50 points for taking the mound. +1/out recorded. +2/IP after the 4th. +1 per strikeout. -2 per hit. -4 per ER, -2 per R, -1 per walk.
Taking a random about-normal start, then (6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, 1 HR) gets 50+18+4+4-12-20-2 = 42. Took a big hit there on the 5 ER. Anyway, you get the picture. The highest game score ever was 105. It’s hard to get to 40, and if your starter’s regularly that ineffective, you should be looking for better options.
M’s starters, average game score*:
Felix, 52
Jarrod Washburn, 48
Miguel Batista, 46
Weaver, 41
… Horacio Ramirez, 36.5
Game score has its flaws obviously, but as a general benchmark for pitcher effectiveness, it’s not terrible, and it’s on Baseball Reference, which makes it easy for me to do stuff like this:
Horacio Ramirez Game Scores, 2007
Yeah. Lotta time in the suck zone. Some starts in the “decent zone”. The only good start against a good offense would be May 13th, against the Yankees, when he went 6 1/3rd, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, and 1 K…. he pitched to contact and got lucky. If you want strikeouts, you’re in trouble. Maybe the Royals start, where he got 4 Ks and walked two, giving up seven hits in 6 1/3rd? I don’t know. What I’m saying is there’s really no start where you could say “Horacio Ramirez really threw a good game there.” Even Jeff Weaver’s had some starts that are indisputably good. Not lately, no (last time Weaver had a decent start, August 23rd).
But forget the depressing results. Take the skill route. In his first start, a win, Ramirez went six innings (and it took him 106 pitches to get there), struck out one batter (Teixeira in the first, on a called third strike that… well, anyway). When was there ever evidence that Ramirez was getting better, in any sense? That he was getting more efficient with his pitches, even, much less fooling more batters into swing-and-misses. That any of his pitches might be developing into reliable out pitches?
How long do you wait for someone who isn’t pitching well enough to be in the rotation to even show some promise?
Twenty starts, it seems. I know the M’s didn’t have anyone who’d have been a clear upgrade, especially when Baek got injured, and yet that seems as much an indictment of the team as anything, that they went into the season without any kind of reliable break-glass-in-case-of-flameout even though they went into the year with three pitchers all with significant risks.
Or we could rant about the team’s failure to pick up rotation help even when it was all but free (or actually free)… but we won’t.
But for all the things that have gone wrong (and right) this year, it’s clear that the team’s inexplicable faith that Ramirez would be a solid rotation member, their continued belief that he would at any moment become the pitcher they thought they were acquiring, and their failure to have a decent backup plan to go to was one of the greatest reasons the team couldn’t turn a surprisingly successful season into a playoff berth.
* I used b-ref’s summary function pretty quickly, so it’s entirely possible that’s screwed up
Game 148, Devil Rays at Mariners
Here’s a game the M’s should have a chance at: Sonnanstine v Washburn.
Losing resets our second baseman to Lopez, or possibly it’s just giving Bloomquist a chance to regenerate his magic pixie dust or whatnot.
I have nothing new to say about the new Jones-to-winter-ball comments.
Game 147, Devil Rays at Mariners
6:05 start, KSTW. Kazmir versus Horacio Ramirez, who is being given another start because our manager values loyalty over winning games.
However, the defense gets upgraded a little with Jones in left over Ibanez, who DHs, and Vidro gets a start at first. Bloomquist loyalty wins out over Lopez loyalty.
Game 146, Devil Rays at Mariners
7:05, FSN. James Shields v Felix.
Another Lopez-less lineup.
The Devil Rays lineup is pretty interesting, though:
3B Iwamura
DH Norton
1B Pena
CF Upton
RF Young
LF Gomes
C Navarro
SS Wilson
2B Velandia
Huh.
Relievers Wearing Down
On August 2nd, Right-Handed Setup Guy #1 had a 2.24 ERA and was considered one of the key cogs in a bullpen that was keeping his team in a pennant race. The guy was a horse, having already pitched 56 innings during the first four months of the season and providing important shut down 8th innings to bridge the gap to the closer. In the 6 weeks since, he’s appeared in 15 games, put 23 guys on base in 12 2/3 innings and has posted a 10.66 ERA during the stretch run.
On August 2nd, Right-Handed Setup Guy #2 had a 2.59 ERA and was considered one of the key cogs in a bullpen that was keeping his team in a pennant race. The guy was a horse, having already pitched 58 innings during the first four months of the season and providing important shut down 8th innings to bridge the gap to the closer. In the 6 weeks since, he’s appeared in 18 games, put 36 guys on base in 19 innings and has posted a 6.63 ERA during the stretch run.
One of these guys is Scot Shields – one of the premier setup men in the league, a veteran with years of playoff experience, and a rock of the Angels bullpen. The other is Sean Green – a newcomer to the scene without any kind of major league track record. Can you tell which one is the grizzled veteran who has been through the wars and which one is the young guy who couldn’t handle the stress of a playoff race?
I didn’t think so. Here’s a hint – the guy allowing more than a run for every inning pitched? That’s the awesome reliable veteran.
I could repeat this exercise with a plethora of veteran relievers. Eric Gagne? Terrible since August. Dan Wheeler? Disastrously bad. Al Reyes? Total debacle.
So, local media types, please do us all a favor – stop talking about how the bullpen’s struggles since August are obviously the cause of inexperience wilting in a playoff race. You don’t know why Sean Green’s struggling any more than you know why any of those veterans are struggling. Relievers are inconsistent – even the best of them. Remember when Mariano Rivera posted a 10.57 ERA in April and everyone was ready to write off the Yankee closer again? Yea, that wasn’t right either.
Yes, the Mariners bullpen is young. And yes, the Mariner bullpen has struggled. But you don’t know that A is the cause of B, and there’s no evidence to show that an equally talented young pitcher is more likely to struggle during August and September than an equally talented veteran.
This whole veteran love affair is, by far, the most annoying storyline of the 2007 season. We already have to deal with the organization making bad decisions based on age – we don’t need media members using date of birth to give us bad analysis too.
Felix Day! Wheeee!
The M’s have a chance to win three in a row! Three in a row! Who cares if it’s against Tampa Bay — everyone likes wins. Go Felix!
Game 145, Devil Rays at Mariners
I’m glad to see a new opponent, that’s for sure. Jason Hammel, one of a bunch of more or less interchangable, cheap, back-of-the-rotation guys the Devil Rays have been juggling (and who I traded to Jason in our hyper-complicated keeper-league-of-keeper-leagues), faces off against Jeff Weaver, who’s been getting cuffed around since that pretty good August 12th game against a weak White Sox team.
Jeff Weaver, last 5 starts: 2-2, 7.62 ERA, 26 IP, 37 H, 6 BB, 15 K, 9 HR. Opponents: .346/.371/.664
season: 6-12 in 23 starts, 6.05 ERA, 125 IP, 164 H, 30 BB, 69 K, 19 HR. Opponents: .319/.358/.523
Jason Hammel, in 10 starts: 1-4, 6.75 ERA, 45.1 IP, 53 H, 19 BB, 27 K, 9 HR. Opponents: .293/.366/.547
Weaver makes approximately $8m more than Hammel.
Not playing: Adam Jones. Apparently, there is no way to play yourself into the lineup under McLaren: there’s no playing time to be had if you don’t perform up to an undefined standard, and spectacular performances are only rewarded with continued playing time if you’re a veteran.
How is this supposed to motivate anyone?
Ryan leaves Twins, no effect on Mariners
Scheduling Note: Dave with Groz moves up a day, and can be heard this afternoon at 2:35 pm on KJR.
Terry Ryan resigns as GM of Twins. ESPN’s write-up here.
I’ve heard him mentioned as a possible Bavasi replacement, but Bavasi’s not going anywhere (unless they keep losing like this and the A’s catch them, maybe). So it doesn’t really matter to us.
The short version: the Twins under Ryan did an amazing job developing players their way, often evaluating them on the basis of criteria I totally disagree with (David Ortiz, for instance, run out of the org for not being their kind of player), did some things badly, but given the constraints they worked under, have to be acknowledged as a tremendous sustained success.
More Free Agent Pitcher Badness
At some point soon, as hot stove league talk heats up, you’re going to hear one recurring suggestion from the mainstream media – the Mariners need to acquire a frontline starting pitcher. Generally, they’ll add in even more fun extras such as “no matter what the cost”. The idea is, basically, that if the Mariners are serious about contending, they’ll spend the necessary money to sign a big name free agent pitcher. This is an annual suggestion – we’ve been told that this is the solution to the Mariners problems for years. Considering how poorly the rotation pitched this year, it’s inevitable that the same Sign Big Name Free Agent Pitcher calls will be even louder than normal.
I wonder, though, if they ever consider just how bad a strategy that really is? I’ve written about this issue several times before, but the general consensus remains the same – bring us a big name free agent pitcher.
Well, now that the 2007 season is basically over, we can look back and see just how good of an idea that would have been last winter. There were seven pitchers who signed multiyear contracts in excess of $10 million a year in annual salary – basically, these are the guys who would qualify as the types of pitchers that people want the Mariners to pursue every winter. Should the Mariners have been more aggressive in going after a “top tier” free agent starter last offseason?
Player Tm W L ERA IP Hit K BB HR Lilly CHN 15 7 3.85 187 164 156 51 26 Meche KC 7 12 3.82 188.3 195 132 56 21 Zito SF 9 12 4.46 173.7 156 121 73 21 Padilla TEX 6 9 5.70 115.3 142 69 45 15 Schmidt LAN 1 4 6.31 25.7 32 22 14 4 Mussina NYA 8 10 5.51 127.3 162 77 29 14 Suppan MIL 9 11 4.74 180.3 212 97 58 16 Average 9 10 4.63 163 170 110 52 19
Those seven big name, big dollar, long term contract guys have given their teams, on average, 163 innings with a 4.63 ERA. Average Annual Salary? $12 million per year.
With Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buehrle off the market, this year’s free agent pitching class is going to be even less exciting than last years. When Livan Hernandez, Jason Jennings, Kenny Rogers, and Freddy Garcia are the best guys available, it’s time to shop elsewhere.
The Mariners rotation needs help, but it won’t be found in free agency.
Game 144, Athletics at Mariners
The “Postseason priority” ads are still up on the M’s page.
Haren v Batista.
Broussard plays first, Bloomquist plays second, Burke catches.