Award Winners
Not much interesting to say about last night’s game. M’s lose, Washburn struggles, McLaren says dumb things in post-game interview. Pretty standard day all around.
So, let’s talk non-Mariner things for a second. Everyone always has an opinion on the postseason awards with new names just filling the template for people to rehash the same arguments every year. I’ve long since gotten bored with those arguments and don’t particularly care what the BBWAA as a whole thinks about too many things, so I don’t get wrapped up in those discussions any more. I find it hard to get too riled up about whatever mediocre player Jayson Stark decides to push as his MVP candidate of the year.
But, that doesn’t mean I don’t have an opinion on who should win the awards, so, without further ado, here are my totally theoretical ballots, going three deep for each award.
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, Ichiro Suzuki, Jorge Posada
A-Rod ended this race a few weeks ago, and no one else should get a first place vote. Honestly, a vote for anyone else this year is just a sign of personal bias. A couple of up the middle players who both provide significant offensive value round out the top three.
NL MVP: David Wright, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez
Wright makes it a clean sweep for New York third baseman in a year with a lot of solid candidates but no obvious answer. You could make a compelling case for Pujols or Ramirez (though his defense is attrocious), and the difference between the guy who finishes 1st and 10th on the ballot isn’t even that large. It’s a balanced field, but Wright gets the edge by a couple of hairs.
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett
Johan’s still the best pitcher alive, while Sabathia has quietly put together a tremendous season as well. Beckett may get the actual award thanks to his win totals, but he’s thrown 20 less innings than Johan and 40 less innings than Sabathia – that’s too large a quantity to overcome when he hasn’t been demonstrably better on a per inning basis.
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, John Smoltz
The gap here is a lot smaller than you may think as either Peavy or Webb is a deserving choice. But am I the only one who wonders why John Smoltz’s season has gone totally under the radar? The guy is 40 years old and hasn’t declined at all – he’s literally just as good now as he was in his prime. Amazing.
AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima
Clearly, Boston’s reliance on three rookies to play major roles was evidence that the Red Sox don’t understand the value of major league experience. Those nerds and their calculators – when will they ever learn.
NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Hunter Pence
Braun is putting the wraps on one of the great rookie seasons of all time. Just a monster of a debut. Tulowitzki’s glove has proven to be more than good enough for shortstop and his bat provides solid value at an up the middle position. That he got nearly 200 more plate appearances than Pence pushed him to the number two spot on the list.
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, Terry Francona
You can talk about payroll all you want, but Joe Torre’s team is going to play October baseball after having to give 23 starts to Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSalvo, Chase Wright, Jeff Karstens, and Darrell Rasner. That’s basically a rotation spot that they handed to Double-A pitchers due to the ridiculous amounts of injuries they faced, and they’re still going to win the wild card. Joe Torre doesn’t get nearly enough credit for how well he’s handled NY.
NL Manager of the Year: Manny Acta, Willie Randolph, Bob Melvin
The Nationals were supposed to be terrible. Instead, Acta has managed to take a team that epitomizes replacement level and turn them into a respectable club, winning games with minor league free agents and Triple-A veterans. Acta’s not perfect (see the Nook Logan fetish), but if I could choose anyone to manage a franchise next year, he’d probably be my pick.
Game 143, Athletics at Mariners
I love baseball, I really do. There’s no way I’d have written a book about it otherwise, obviously, but I tune into watch HoRam get slapped around knowing he’s almost certain to get slapped around as regularly as I see Felix.
But I have to admit – we’ve seen a couple funks like this the last couple years, and it takes a lot out of being a fan for me to see the team go through this. I want to shake my head and ask “When does it stop? Can I step out for a while and have someone wave me back in when it’s over?”
And yet here I am, making dinner and waiting to see Jarrod Washburn. And there, on the lineup card, in left, is USSM-endorsed left fielder Adam Jones. Vidro plays first, Ibanez DHs. Not, uh… how I would have done it, but hey, if you’re going to upgrade the outfield defense, Washburn’s a good pitcher to go for it.
Oakland fields… Dallas Braden. I don’t even know much about Dallas.
Game 142, Athletics at Mariners
Blanton v Ramirez. 7:05.
Blanton 5.48 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, .6 HR/9, 3.38 FIP
Ramirez 3.64 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 5.29 FIP
Broussard plays first with Sexson’s hammy apptly acting up, Vidro returns to DH duties.
The Value of Adrian Beltre
Now that the season is effectively over, we can turn our attention from the daily matchups of the next game to bigger picture analysis. Today’s subject: Adrian Beltre.
Longtime readers will know that we’ve never hid our affection for Beltre. During the run-up to the 2004 offseason, I threw my entire support behind signing Beltre, and called the deal “a stunning accomplishment” for the Mariners. We were all optimistic about Beltre’s performance heading into the 2005 season.
Obviously, that first year was rough. He couldn’t have started his Mariner career any worse. His first two months in Seattle, he received 199 at-bats and hit a staggeringly terrible .236/.264/.357. Since most of baseball was already convinced that his 2004 season was a massive fluke, the early struggles simply fit into the already written narrative about a bad player who had a contract year and was now one of the worst free agent signings in baseball history. The story of the Adrian Beltre contract was written two months into a five year deal, and in general, the national perception of the contract hasn’t changed much at all, as Beltre is often referred to as overpaid or disappointing. MLB.tv users will remember the last Rangers series in Texas for Tom Grieve’s constant whipping of Beltre in particular.
Well, that story was wrong then and it’s wrong now. The only better third baseman in the American League is some guy named Rodriguez who is running away with the MVP award and is already practicing his hall of fame induction speach. The only Mariner players who helps puts wins on the board with more regularity are Ichiro and J.J. Putz, and they both can lay a claim to being the best in baseball at their respective positions.
Adrian Beltre is a star, an underrated asset whose remaining two years on his contract are nothing short of a bargain. Don’t believe me? Look at the 2006 performances, and the contracts signed, by four very similar hitters during the last year:
Aramis Ramirez: .291/.352/.561, 126 OPS+, $15 million a year for 5 years
Alfonso Soriano: .277/.351/.560, 132 OPS+, $18 million per year for 7 years
Carlos Lee: .300/.355/.540, 125 OPS+, $16 million per year for 6 years
Vernon Wells: .303/.357/.542, 126 OPS+, $18 million per year for 7 years
The market value seems pretty clear – the .300 hitter with power skillset, usually providing offense that is about 20 percent above league average, has been valued at between $15-$18 million per season for 5-7 years. Let’s look at how those guys are performing this year.
Aramis Ramirez: .315/.370/.539, 129 OPS+
Alfonso Soriano: .295/.332/.529, 116 OPS+
Carlos Lee: .298/.353/.519, 121 OPS+
Vernon Wells: .251/.307/.418, 87 OPS+
Besides Wells, they’re all performing right in line with expectations, showing the same basic skillset and performance level that their teams thought they were getting when they gave them long term, big money contracts.
Now, take a look at Adrian Beltre’s 2007 line: .283/.331/.503, 122 OPS+
The raw numbers are a little bit lower, but that’s Safeco Field for you. At home, Beltre’s hitting .270/.332/.430, but away from Safeco, it’s .295/.330/.567. From an offensive production standpoint, 2007 Beltre is basically indistringuishable from Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, or Aramis Ramirez, and he’s several notches ahead of Vernon Wells.
And that’s not even getting into the non-offense values. There’s the defense, which is obviously a significant factor in Beltre’s favor. There’s the health – he hasn’t missed any real time due to injury in six years. And, to top it off, he has age on his side as he doesn’t turn 29 until after opening day next year.
What would a 28-year-old with Beltre’s performance record command as a free agent this winter? Not even accounting for possible inflation, it’s almost impossible to believe that Beltre would do significantly worse than last year’s crop of similar hitters. $15 million a year for 5 years would be the starting spot for negotiations, and it’s not hard to see him getting into the 6 years, $100 million range that Carlos Lee ended up receiving.
The Mariners should be extremely happy to have Adrian Beltre already under contract for the next two years at the relative pittance of just $24 million dollars. He’s a terrific player, one of the best third baseman in baseball, and despite what the national media may tell you, he’s underpaid relative to his market value.
Game 141, Mariners at Tigers
Felix offers the team a good chance at a win. He faces Bonderman. 10:05, FSN.
McLaren figures out how to put Broussard and Sexson in the lineup with Bloomquist!
CF-L Ichiro
3B-R Beltre
LF-L Ibanez
RF-R Guillen
1B-L Broussard
DH-R Sexson
C-R Johjima
2B-R Bloomquist
SS-R Betancourt
That takes some creativity. McLaren for Manager of the Year!
In praise of Vidro
Sincerely. I realized today while looking something else up that I hadn’t pointed out that Vidro leads the Mariners in walks. We’ve talked about why having a batting-average dependent offense can make for a streaky team, and I’ve been baffled why Vidro’s been able to keep up that high BABIP, but I don’t think we’ve pointed out what a huge deal this is. Sure, he’s not a base-stealing threat when he’s no, but he’s drawn 56 walks on a team that is by a ways the worst in the AL at taking a free base.
Vidro, all by himself, accounts for 17% – almost 1/5th – of the team’s walks. David Ortiz walks like crazy on the Red Sox, the AL walk-leading team (he has 97 of their 611) and doesn’t quite get to that proportion.
Fun side note: the Red Sox have five players who have draw more walks than Vidro.
Nick Swisher of the A’s has 94 of their 575, for 16% (16.3 to Vidro’s 16.5). Alex Rodriguez (82 of 540) doesn’t match it.
The M’s are mid-league offense, even adjusting for Safeco, their attack based almost entirely around batting average: they’re 4th in AVG, 6th in OBP (last in walks), 7th in SLG.
The team has only a few sources of any real power: Beltre, followed a ways behind by Ibanez, Johjima, Guillen, Betancourt. They’re not a power-hitting lineup.
Vidro is the team’s Beltre of walks. I know. But there it is. What’s all the more impressive about it is that he’s working in a team that actively encourages their players to hack early and often, and yet there he is… 56 walks. The confused and frightened and possibly post-cliff Sexson has 51, but the only other effective hitter in the lineup, Ibanez, has 43. Vidro’s the only person who’s really bringing plate discipline to the plate, and he’s been doing it despite a team offensive approach that makes it extremely difficult to do that.
That deserves some recognition, and applause. You have to wonder if he’d be even more effective if they weren’t trying to get him to swing at the first two pitches of every at-bat.
Game 140, Mariners at Tigers
Jeff Weaver v. Nate Robertson. 4:05.
Richie Sexson returns to the lineup.
Game 139, Mariners at Tigers
4:05. Batista v Verlander.
I wonder, now that the playoff race is pretty much done, if I’ll be able to sit back and enjoy the game without worrying every error is going to cost the team their chances. I wonder if they’ll finally spread some playing time around and…
Nope. Well then. Let’s watch some baseball.
USSM on KJR returns
After a one week hiatus, I’m back on the air with Groz at 2:20 pm. You can catch it live at KJR’s website.
Future Forty Update – End of Season
With the minor league seasons coming to a close, it’s time for our last monthly Future Forty update and a look back at the year that was in the farm system.
Big Steps Forward
Adam Jones – Really, I don’t think we need to say much more about AJ.
Carlos Triunfel – the best prospect in the system and one of the best alive proved he could hold his own at 17 years of age.
Wladimir Balentien – Refined the rough edges of his game, made better contact, and probably made himself prime trade bait.
Matt Tuiasasopo – Showed that he could actually drive the ball into the gaps, drastically improved approach at the plate, and re-established himself as a potential everyday major league player.
Solid Improvement
Michael Saunders – Turned athleticism into performance, though playing in High Desert certainly didn’t hurt.
Chris Tillman – Recovered from disastrous performances after promotion to California League, showed flashes of brilliance despite a general lack of command.
Kameron Mickolio – Added cut fastball, improved command, and went from interesting late-round steal to putting himself in contention for a bullpen spot in 2008.
Up and Down
Jeff Clement – had a few great months and a few terrible months, providing evidence to both his supporters and his critics. Still something of an enigma but continues to work hard.
Tony Butler – Arm and back problems led to reduced velocity and a couple stints on the DL, but when healthy, showed why he’s got as much upside as any arm in the system besides Felix.
Brandon Morrow – Showed a legit 98 MPH fastball that can overpower hitters at times, but also had very little idea where the ball was going or anything to complement the fastball. Move to rotation is likely going to include significant growing pains.
Greg Halman – Horrible in Wisconsin, but when shipped back to Everett, made big strides. It’s scary how much he looks like Alfonso Soriano when hitting, and while he won’t be that good, he’s got a similar skillset.
More Down Than Up
Alex Liddi – One of my favorite bats in the system, Liddi failed to make enough contact to do any damage to MWL pitchers and has a lot of adjustments to make. Still very talented and worth keeping an eye on.
Rob Johnson – Mariners still love his leadership and catching skills behind the plate – I remain convinced that he’ll never hit high level pitching.
Doug Salinas – Age is the main thing on his side, as he rarely topped 90 MPH and showed a couple of 62-68 MPH breaking balls that have no chance of getting real hitters out. Stuff did not match the hype.
Overall
You can’t categorize 2007 as anything other than a big win for the farm system. The top talents had successful seasons almost across the board, the best arms avoided surgery, and a few guys took steps up from interesting to legitimately intriguing. There’s no doubt that the organization has more young talent in it now than it has in any year during the Bavasi era, which has only seen significant improvement in minor league development since he took over as GM. Bob Engle, Bob Fontaine, and their staffs deserve every plaudit that can be thrown at them – the Mariners have a lot of talent on the way to Seattle.
However, that doesn’t mean everything is perfect. As an organization, they still fail in installing any kind of real approach to hitting, and the club continues to churn out a plethora of the exact same types of hitters they already have on hand. When you look at the major league line-up and see Adrian Beltre, Jose Guillen, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Kenji Johjima, you see five shades of the same thing – right handed, highly aggressive line drive pull hitters. When you look at Adam Jones, Wladimir Balentien, Carlos Triunfel, and Greg Halman you have (to differing degrees) four more right-handed, highly aggressive line drive pull hitters.
With a couple of exceptions, this is the kind of player the M’s are both developing and pursuing at the major league level, and while they’re valuable players and good prospects in their own right, it’s time for the organization to diversify. They have a park that harms right-handed pull hitters moreso than any other player type, but significantly rewards left-handed flyball power hitters. Jeff Clement is the only guy in the organization who fits that mold, and it’s not even a given that he’ll still be a Mariner past this coming offseason.
The M’s scouts are doing a great job of finding talent – now they just need to find different kinds of talent. But, make no mistake, the farm system is in good shape, and the Mariners have a significant quantity of high ceiling guys that could add real pieces to the major league roster in the next several years.
As always, feel free to use this thread for any questions you may have, and I’ll do my best to answer as many as I can.