M’s fans pessimistic
On the MLB page over at ESPN.com right now, the poll question reads: “Do you expect your favorite MLB team to be competitive in 2009?” I clicked “no” and then submit so I could see the results.
As you might imagine, the entire country (as well as international voters) are bullish on their teams. With nearly 15K votes cast, 83% of people expect their team to be competitive. Except for those in Washington, who are currently voting 50/50 in the poll.
No other state sits at less than 68% yes.
Furcal to Braves, maybe
Being reported as done, and also as not done yet. If it pans out, it eliminates one of the options for upgrading the M’s middle infield this off-season.
The Staff
Clearly, the Mariners aren’t done making changes to their roster. I’d imagine we’ll see another trade or two before the off-season ends, as the current pitching staff has a lot of unanswered questions. Based on what’s here today, this is how I’d project the pitching staff for 2009.
#1 Starter: Felix Hernandez
#2 Starter: Erik Bedard
#3 Starter: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
#4 Starter: Carlos Silva
#5 Starter: Jarrod Washburn or Ryan Rowland-Smith
Closer: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
RH Setup: Miguel Batista
LH Setup: Jason Vargas or Ryan Rowland-Smith
RH Middle: Roy Corcoran
LH Middle: Jose Lugo or Jason Vargas
Mopup: Mark Lowe
Long: Cesar Jimenez or Jason Vargas
If you notice, there’s 13 names up there, and this assumes the M’s will go with a 12 man pitching staff. They may only go 11 deep. Either way, one or two guys from above won’t be making the roster, and if you think Justin Thomas might sneak into the LH reliever competition, that would make 14 names. A few people are going to have to go away.
Silva and Batista aren’t going anywhere. There’s just no way to get rid of their contracts, and both are at their lowest point in terms of value. The best for both is to try to put them in situations where they have a quality defense behind them and hope for a good first half. If Batista settles in as a decent reliever, you might be able to dump him in July. With Silva, you’re just hoping he gives you 160 decent enough innings, and then maybe you can eat half of his contract next winter to be rid of him.
The guys that you want on the roster, without question, are Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Heilman, and Rowland-Smith. Those five should come to camp with significant job security. The latter three may not have defined roles right now, but we should be pretty confidant that they’re on the staff. Combined with the two total albatross contracts, that makes a pitching staff of seven that you’re pretty set on.
The other six guys are the marginal ones. The team should move Washburn if they can, but there was no interest in him at the winter meetings, so they might be forced to carry him into spring training and hope that some team gets interested when someone on their staff gets hurt. If that’s the case, then you lose a rotation spot to hand to Rowland-Smith, and he goes to the ‘pen, which means one less job for the Vargas/Lugo/Jimenez trio to fight over. Lugo has the advantage of being a Rule 5 guy, so he’s more likely to stick than guys with options left. Vargas has good get-out-lefty stuff, which Jimenez does not, so Vargas is more likely to stick as the traditional LH setup guy, while Jimenez is probably best suited as a long reliever.
Corcoran pitched well last year, and probably slides into the Sean Green role of groundballing right-handed relief guy, while Lowe gets handed a low leverage role until he can prove that he’s close to getting his stuff and command back.
That brings us to the big issue – Heilman and Morrow. Both want to start – Morrow has made it very clear that he thinks he proved he can be a starter in the big leagues at the end of the season, while Heilman demanded a trade because he wanted a chance to prove he could take the hill every five days as he heads towards free agency in 2010. With the roster the way it is right now, there simply isn’t room for both. One of them will amost certainly be asked to head to the bullpen, and would head into spring training as the most likely option to begin the year as the closer.
That’s not what either of them, or the organization for that matter, would deem as the best option long term. Realistically, this team needs to lose a starting pitcher or two and pick up a right-handed reliever who can get get both RHB and LHB out. There are options to get that point (eat a lot of money to move Washburn being the obvious one), but none of them are great options.
So far, we’ve given Zduriencik a big thumbs up for his early moves. Picking up guys like Branyan and Shelton on the cheap were astute moves, and the Putz trade was a fantastic one for the organization, but now it gets harder. If he’s really going to expedite the reshaping of this roster and get us setup to have a solid team that is building towards 2010, he needs to figure out how to toss Jarrod Washburn overboard without taking a bad contract back and convince RR-S to hang out in the bullpen until they have a chance to figure out what to do with Bedard.
Realistically, the M’s goal should be to end the 2009 season with a rotation of Felix, Morrow, Heilman, Silva, and Rowland-Smith. Getting there won’t be easy. Now we find out just how good of a GM Zduriencik can really be.
A quick word on the ads
The meat ad is gone! Yayyy! Unfortunately that was a consequence of having both an extremely short turnaround time on ad approvals (24h! Seriously!) and a 3-month buy. We really try to keep on top of this stuff. It’s a pain, though, frequently in excess of the monetary return. Which is not at all hard, given we make like $1 from ad sales.
Anyway! I wanted to point out that thing’s been replaced by a lovely ad by a USSM reader with an actual interesting baseball product, which should make everyone happy. So go check it out. I promise there’s no long, gory video waiting for you.
What’s the worst Mariner gift?
After reading this fine Bill Simmons column I started to search for M’s items. And then I thought “it’s okay to take that idea and run with it, isn’t it?” Last year I would have said “16-game ticket pack” quickly escalating to “season tickets” but clearly that’s changing.
The stuff I found in my first couple of minutes:
Greg Hibbard autographed baseball, $24
Jose Vidro autographed bat $40 despite being presumably unscuffed by contact with balls
Richie Sexson autographed baseball $111
The $60 Mariner Door Mat (“good 75% of the time”)
What I really wanted, though, were the kind of things Simmons was writing about: a Slocumb game jersey, a Raul Ibanez glove. A Kevin Mitchell injection-used cortisone dose bottle. A Carlos Silva fondue set. What’s out there I should look forward to receiving as a gag gift from particularly cruel relatives?
Results of the USSM Dave Cameron Scholarship Drive
Including donations outside Pledgie and my match of the first $500, I’ll be cutting Dave a check for
$8,826.76
to support his college education.
Really. $8,826.76.
I am filled with gratitude for you all.
Three quick things
1. I’m closing the scholarship drive tomorrow, which will involve cutting Dave a giant novelty check and probably writing a really sappy post about how awesome the USSM readership and Dave are. Get in while you still can, so you’ll feel warm and fuzzy when you read my temporary break with antipathy.
2. Conor asked me if I was going to do a USSM off-season music post, and I said “Not until John Richards tells me what the best albums were.” But seriously — we usually throw out USSM Endorsements during the off-season lull of depression, and our new front office hasn’t given us any off days. But we’ll get around to our standard random features (whether you enjoy them or not).
3. I’ll be spending some site-tinkering time this weekend, so if there’s something that’s been bugging you about the USSM design/layout, that’s always a good time for me to fix things as long as I have the code open.
Ibanez to Philly
The Phillies gave Raul Ibanez a 3 year, $30 million deal to replace Pat Burrell today. It was pretty much a lock that the team that signed Ibanez was going to be an old-school type, but honestly, I’m a bit surprised that Philly was dumb enough to make this move. With guys like Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Geoff Jenkins, and Pedro Feliz, it was clear that they knew a good defensive player when they saw one. I guess they just feel that it’s totally fine to have a lumbering oaf running around left field. They’ll regret this contract by July, though.
For the M’s, this means they get the 28th pick in the 1st round and a compensatory pick that will be somewhere in the 37-42 range, depending on whether some of these other Type A free agents change teams or not. Their second round pick should be in the 46-50 range, so right now, the M’s have the 2nd, 28th, ~39th, and ~48th picks in the draft next summer. If they don’t sign Josh Fields, you can add the 21st pick to that list, and then shove everything else back a pick.
The new prospects
Aside from getting Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez and Aaron Heilman, Zduriencik also pulled in four prospects in yesterday’s mega deal. Let’s take a closer look at the younger players in the deal…
Mike Carp
The Mets drafted Carp in the ninth round of the 2004 draft out of California baseball powerhouse Lakewood High School in Lakewood, Calif. The lefthanded hitter signed for $60,000 and got off to a modest start in the Gulf Coast League. He put himself on the prospect radar the following year by hitting .249/.358/.476 with 19 home runs over 313 at-bats in the Sally League. He improved in 2006 by putting up a line of .287/.379/.450 in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. 2007, however, was a different story. He broke his finger in spring training and then had a disappointing season in his first taste of Double-A, hitting just .251/.337/.387 over 359 at-bats before getting some extra time in the Arizona Fall League. He repeated Double-A this year as a 22-year-old and did a nice 180, hitting .299/.403/.471 with 29 doubles and 17 home runs over 478 at-bats with an Eastern League-leading 79 walks (14.2%) and 88 strikeouts (18.4%). There has been some concern that Carp can’t hit lefties, but he seems to have improved against them this year, hitting .263/.347/.434 over 152 at-bats against southpaws. Carp doesn’t have huge power like some first base prospects, but he compares favorably to guys like Lyle Overbay and it’s nice to see Zduriencik bring in a player with good place discipline. For what it’s worth, his 79 walks last year would have led all Mariners’ farmhands and he easily becomes the M’s best first base prospect. Not that there was much competition…
Maikel Cleto
Savvy Mets fans are not happy about losing Cleto—and for good reason. On the surface, the 19-year-old Dominican righthander doesn’t look like much. He pitched 136 innings for Class A Savannah last season, striking out 81 and walking just 34 on his way to a 4.25 ERA. Dig a little deeper though and you learn that the 6-foot-3, 215 pounder features a mid-90s fastball and has even flirted with triple digits. That’s a rare arm and, although the mainstream media made Cleto seem like a throw-in in the deal, he reportedly would have been the Mets’ eighth-best prospect had he stayed in their system and Sally League managers rated his fastball as the best in the league. While the strikeouts seem low for a guy with that kind of heat, he’s a guy that could really take off if his secondary stuff comes around. At the very least, Cleto’s an electric bullpen arm. Cleto should join Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez and Michael Pineda to form the California League’s best rotation next season.Â
Jason Vargas
The Marlins drafted Vargas in the second round of the 2004 draft as a senior out of Long Beach State, where he was a member of the Dirtbags’ rotation with Jered Weaver. Vargas started his professional career with the short-season Jamestown Jammers of the New York-Penn League where the stocky southpaw made eight starts, striking out 41 and walking 13 over 41 innings before getting promoted to the Sally League to finish the season. That winter, Baseball America ranked Vargas as the eighth best prospect in their system. He worked his way up their organizational ladder before being traded to the Mets in November 2006 along with Adam Bostick for Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens. Vargas has a solid minor-league track record, but has struggled with injuries and inefficiency over his first 127 major league innings. Vargas has a mid-to-upper 80s fastball, a slider and a changeup. While it’s not shutdown stuff, he will compete with Justin Thomas and Jose Lugo to become the second lefty out of the bullpen.
Ezequiel Carrera
Coincidentally, Carrera profiles pretty similarly to Endy Chavez. The small-framed outfielder doesn’t have much juice in his bat, but he’s a good defender—rated as the best defensive outfielder in the Florida State League by the league’s managers—he can draw a few walks and has good speed. He stole 28 bases in 37 attempts and led the league with 12 triples … not too shabby for the seventh player in the deal.
M’s Select Reegie Corona In Rule 5 Draft
The M’s used the second pick in the Rule 5 draft to pluck 22-year-old middle infielder Reegie Corona out of the Yankees system. He’s played both SS and 2B, though spent most of 2008 playing second base for Trenton in Double-A.
If you liked Willie Bloomquist, you’ll like Corona. He’s a switch-hitter with very little power who knows how to work the count and will take some walks, and he’s also a pretty good baserunner. His total lack of power limits his upside to utility guy, but Corona’s the type of guy that explains why we’ve always said Bloomquist is so easily replaced. These guys are everywhere.
He’s probably the M’s 25th man/pinch runner/backup shortstop. Very little upside, but fills a decent hole that the M’s didn’t have any internal candidates for.
The M’s also had the Royals select LHP Jose Lugo for them, so they essentially made two of the first nine picks. Lugo was the guy I was hoping they popped at #2, so I’m obviously happy they ended up with him. He’s got a heavy sinking fastball that sits in the low-90s which makes him a groundball-and-strikeout reliever. His slider and change need work and his command isn’t great, but he’s got the repertoire to be a very good LOOGY.
In the Triple-A phase, the M’s plucked Patrick Ryan from the Brewers. You can bet Z knows exactly what he’s getting here, and he’s pretty easy to peg – RH extreme sinkerball reliever with mediocre command and no out pitch. It’s the Sean Green/Roy Corcoran skillset that we all know and love.