Washburn, With A Twist
As readers of the site – and listeners of Brock and Salk – well know, I’m not a huge Jarrod Washburn fan. Among people who don’t make an effort to separate pitching from defense and use metrics like ERA to judge pitchers, he’s generally overrated. His success last year in Seattle was heavily luck based (2.64 ERA is just not sustainable from a 4.50 xFIP), and it was not a big surprise to see him struggle upon being traded. In reality, he’s not that much better than the various #5 starter types already kicking around, such as Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, and Luke French.
So, when people suggest that the M’s should bring in Washburn to fill out the rotation, I’ve been generally opposed. I wanted a guy with more upside, a guy who you would actually want starting a playoff game in Yankee Stadium.
However, there’s been two slight changes to my traditional take on Washburn, as stated above. First, the team signed Bedard, who offers that upside that I’ve been wanting. And secondly, over at FanGraphs, we just rolled out splits for every player dating back to 2002, giving us lots of useful information not previously available. In the course of beta testing the splits, I decided to take a look at Washburn’s page. I knew he had different results versus lefties and righties, and I wanted to see how that looked using FanGraphs metrics like xFIP.
What I found surprised me, honestly. Here’s Washburn’s left/right splits in categories that matter since 2002:
Vs LHB: 2.22 BB/9, 7.31 K/9, 40.6% GB%, 3.93 xFIP
vs RHB: 2.77 BB/9, 4.55 K/9, 34.9% GB%, 5.15 xFIP
We knew that Washburn was more effective against left-handed hitters, but man, that difference is stunning. Nearly 3 full strikeouts per nine innings difference and a higher ground ball rate as well. His stuff works really well against same handed hitters, but he’s just trying to survive against righties. The overall package is a mediocre starting pitcher. But you know what mediocre starters with big platoon splits make? Terrific relief pitchers.
And you know what the Mariners don’t have? Anything resembling a major league left-handed reliever. The bullpen is all righties, all the time, as Wak abhors specialists who can only get a batter or two out before they need help to get out of a jam, and many LH relievers are specialists who can’t get right-handers out. Due to this philosophy, the M’s often are at a disadvantage late in games when they need to get a tough left-handed bat out.
Washburn’s repertoire would work really well out of the bullpen. He’s got good enough stuff against righties to avoid a specialist role that Wak hates, but could give the team a legitimate quality left-handed reliever to complement the Aardsma/League/Lowe/Kelley brigade of right-handers.
Now, Jarrod Washburn isn’t going to sign with anyone to be a relief pitcher, I’m sure. He’s been a starter his whole career, and I’d bet he still wants to be a starter. But with the M’s signing of Erik Bedard, who will miss at least the first 50-60 games of the season, the M’s could offer him a chance to join the team as a starter, reserving the right to move him to the bullpen if Bedard gets healthy enough to return.
In this scenario, Washburn provides potential value in two different roles. He’d begin the season as an innings-eater, allowing the team to get through the first couple of months before Bedard returns, offering that marginal upgrade over Vargas for April and May. If Bedard comes back healthy in June, and Washburn isn’t pitching like he did last year, you try to convince him to shift to the bullpen for the second half of the season, where he would give the team a quality LH reliever – something they just don’t have right now.
In that role, Washburn could actually be a pretty useful part of a potential playoff roster, if the M’s were able to win the division. Think Darren Oliver and what he’s done for the Angels in the playoffs the last few years. That multi-inning lefty who can get tough outs can be very valuable in a playoff series.
As a reliever, Washburn could really help this team in October. And, for the first few months of the season, he wouldn’t hurt to have around, holding Bedard’s spot for him and offering the team some insurance in case the rehab doesn’t go particularly well. He may be overrated by some, but the fact is, now that Bedard is in the fold, Washburn actually makes some sense for the Mariners.
He’d have to fit into the budget, and no one really knows how much the team has left to spend, but if he’s willing to take a couple million to return, I’d imagine the M’s would fit him in. And, for $2 or $3 million, as a insurance policy on Bedard’s rehab and a potential quality LH reliever in October, that’s a good investment.
Bedard Passes Physical, Deal Done
The M’s announced the Bedard deal officially today. It’s the reported one year deal, but it also has a mutual option for 2011. Now, before you get too excited, mutual options are generally not exercised. If Bedard doesn’t come back, the M’s won’t pick it up. If he comes back and pitches really well, Bedard won’t exercise it. It’s there, but it’s not overly important.
Yusmeiro Petit is the casualty of the 40-man roster, being DFA’d to make room for Bedard. If you’re wondering, they can’t put Bedard on the 60 day DL until the end of spring training, so for now, he’ll use up a 40-man roster spot. He’ll be DL’ed before the season starts, though, so if the team needs to add a non-roster player (like Josh Bard) to the team, they’ll have Bedard’s spot to do so.
The ’09-’10 Offseason and Player Development
This offseason has seen a shift in our expectations in terms of roster composition. Back around November, we talked about the possibility of running out multiple rookies on the field, and how many would be too many for the team to remain competitive. Now those positions have been locked up to the point where the team is likely to field few rookies, if any, and not likely as starting players.
Where in left field, we thought we might see Saunders roaming, we now have the Bradley/Byrnes/Langerhans cerberus aiming to snap up most of the at-bats. At third, Tuiasosopo’s window was shut by the acquisition of all-star Chone Figgins, though I doubt many would complain over that. Carp has been rendered extraneous at first by the acquisitions of Garko and Kotchman. The Bedard re-signing will eventually push Hyphen and Snell back, and likely pushes Fister and Hill to Tacoma as a by-product of the rumored six-man bullpen. Even at catcher, as much as the org has praised Adam Moore, it seems probable that Bard might come in and take the back-up job during spring training. Prospects of all kinds, from future contributing regulars to more fringe types, have been shut out. One might get the impression that the organization is deemphasizing player development in favor of bringing in known quantities.
I’m here to tell you that this conclusion is false. The M’s are just as strong on player development as they ever have been, and I’ll tell you why. Read more
Bedard Confirms Deal
Sullivan google translates a French newspaper in which Bedard is quoted as saying:
“I’m really happy it was my first choice but to return to Seattle”, he said yesterday as he was en route to Peoria, Arizona.
The deal is, as reported, $1.5M in guaranteed money and a shipload of incentives. Kudos to Jim Street for getting it right.
While a physical for Bedard is obviously not a minor thing, the Mariners have been in charge of his rehab, so they obviously are aware of the current state of his arm, more than anyone else. I wouldn’t expect them to find a problem that nukes the deal. In what can only be considered a pretty big surprise, Bedard is a Mariner again.
My thoughts on the deal – obviously, for $1.5 million out of pocket, the risk is minimal. He could suffer a setback and never pitch again, and the M’s wouldn’t be out much of anything. Signing Bedard to this deal won’t keep them from doing anything else you might want them to do. The guaranteed money is basically irrelevant.
And, as we all have seen in spurts, when he is healthy, he’s a really good pitcher. Despite pitching through an injury, his FIP last year was basically the same as Felix’s. His curveball is a knockout weapon, and when he’s on the mound at anything near 100%, he’s one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game. The thought of what he could be is extremely enticing, I know. I realize that the natural reaction to this is to envision a front of the rotation that goes Felix-Lee-Bedard, then start jumping up and down and hugging yourself.
Not to be a downer, but we have to really temper our expectations of what he’s going to give us, though. He’s out until at least May, and he’s not known for being a quick healer. June is probably more likely. So, for the first 1/3 of the season, don’t count on seeing him on the mound. If he recovers to the point of being able to pitch in June, then he’s going to have to work his way back up, going through his own personal spring training. He’s not going to just be ready to throw 100 pitches in a big league game right off the bat. There’s going to be rust to work through.
And, honestly, there’s a question of how long he’ll last. He hasn’t pitched a game in September since 2006. He broke down at 80 innings in each of the last two years. You hope that surgery has fixed the problem, but these shoulder issues aren’t like broken legs; they don’t heal as good as new. He could easily end up taking the Mike Hampton career path, where even when he’s healthy, he’s not really healthy, and he limps along from one DL trip to the next.
Bedard has now had both labrum surgery and Tommy John surgery. His arm has been through some wars. Trying to figure out just how much is left in the tank is a guessing game. Obviously, we’d love for him to be the new Chris Carpenter, and there’s a chance for that to happen. But there’s an equal (or probably greater) chance of him being the new Mark Prior, where he just continually breaks down and never gets back to the early promise he had.
Just because of what is possible and the low cost, I think you have to like this deal. The M’s aren’t really risking anything, and there are scenarios where Bedard comes back and pitches well, giving them the best 1-2-3 in all of baseball, and a potentially dominating playoff rotation. Just because of the upside and the lack of risk, this is absolutely a deal worth making, and I’m glad to see that the M’s went for reward rather than conservative safety.
But, on the other hand, we should be realistic about what to expect. Bedard coming back in May and giving us 120+ innings of All-Star pitching is just really unlikely. We should hope for about half a season’s worth of innings, and not have too high of expectations for the level of performance he’ll offer, coming off another major arm surgery. Be hopeful, but be realistic.
Current depth chart, first week of Feb
Remember: this is not a 40 or 25-man roster. And that the M’s will sign someone immediately to mess this up.
Pitching
SP-R Felix Hernandez
SP-L Cliff Lee
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP-R Ian Snell
SP-R Doug Fister
(SP-R Yusmeiro Petit, then there’s a grey area for a couple of the guys below)
Assuming six people make the bullpen, so you’re cutting at least one of these:
RP-R David Aardsma
RP-R Brandon League
RP-R Mark Lowe
RP-L Luke French
RP-L Jason Vargas
RP-L Garrett Olson
RP-R Shawn Kelley
(and below that: RP-R Sean White, RP-R Kanekoa Texeira)
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson
C-R Adam Moore
(C-B Josh Bard)
1B-L Casey Kotchman
1B-R Ryan Garko
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Jack Wilson
3B-B Chone Figgins
LF-R Eric Byrnes
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez
RF-L Ichiro!
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.
DH/LF-B Milton Bradley
IF-L Jack Hannahan
OF-L Ryan Langerhans
Then in Tacoma probably:
LF-L Michael Saunders
SS-R Chris Woodward
?-R Matt Tuiasosopo
And in Tacoma definitely:
1B-R Tommy Everidge
SS-R Josh Wilson
CF-L Corey Patterson
Jim Street, Erik Bedard, And Rumors
Jim Street has had an interesting week. Yesterday, he took to his mailbag to whine about the inaccuracies of bloggers and twitter, specifically using the talk about Jose Lopez being trade bait as a platform for him to virtually yell at us to get off his lawn. Perhaps he didn’t notice that 99.9% of all baseball news is now first reported on twitter, or that just a few days ago, a bunch of blogging twitterers had to correct an inaccurate report from a “mainstream” television station up in Minnesota.
And, apparently, the humor is lost on him that he’s now using his blog to report that the M’s are nearing a deal with Erik Bedard. He puts the terms at $1.5M guaranteed with “a shipload of incentives”. He’s the only one reporting this, though, and after all, it’s on a blog, so we probably shouldn’t believe it, right?
We’ll analyze it further when a more reputable reporter confirms the deal. If it doesn’t happen, well, just chalk it up as more evidence of those bloggers who don’t care about accuracy running amok.
Update: Erik Bedard tells Larry LaRue that no one has made a concrete offer. That’s a pretty far cry from there being an agreement on terms. For now, there’s no reason to believe Street’s original report has any legs.
M’s Sign Garko
Well, we finally know who was the long rumored right-handed 1B/DH type the Mariners were after – Ryan Garko, who they have now signed. He gets a 1 year, $550,000 deal, which is quite frankly a massive bargain. To get a quality platoon player in his prime for barely more than the league minimum… for comparison, he’s basically the equal of Garrett Atkins, who signed for $4.5 million earlier this winter.
So, on the cost to acquire relative to talent scale, he obviously makes a lot of sense. The question, though, is how the team will fit him onto the roster.
Garko is a lefty masher, a guy who has consistently hit LHP well but been just okay against RHP. Given the current roster, there aren’t going to be too many DH at-bats open against LHP, with Byrnes slotted in as the left fielder and Bradley shifting to DH against southpaws. So, to get Garko in the line-up vs lefties, he’ll have to play first base, which means he’ll be Kotchman’s platoon partner. That downgrades the defense quite a bit (Garko isn’t much with the glove), and it will be interesting to see how often Wak is willing to make that offense-for-defense swap, especially if Kotchman is hitting RHPs well.
The other issue, and one that we’ve discussed quite a bit lately, is how this kind of move will affect the composition of the bench. Here’s the roster, as it stands – we’ll use vs RHP as the example for now.
Starters: Johnson/Moore-Kotchman-Lopez-Wilson-Figgins-Bradley-Gutierrez-Ichiro-Griffey
Bench: Bard-Hannahan-Garko-Byrnes
This is the bench if the M’s continue to carry 12 pitchers, limiting themselves to just four reserve position players. You have a backup catcher, a backup first baseman, a reserve utility infielder, and a reserve outfielder. That should be enough, right?
Nope. Because here’s what it now looks like against LHP.
Starters: Johnson/Moore-Garko-Lopez-Wilson-Figgins-Byrnes-Gutierrez-Ichiro-Bradley
Bench: Bard-Hannahan-Kotchman-Griffey
Note the problem that will occur in any game where the team faces an LHP and one of the outfielders has to leave, whether via injury/ejection/whatever. If Gutierrez runs into a wall, you move Byrnes to center and stick Griffey in left, and that’s your outfield for the day. Assuming, of course, Griffey’s knees are up to playing the outfield that day, and that Wak is willing to sacrifice the team’s biggest strength (OF defense) and turn it into a glaring weakness. If Junior can’t play the field, or Wak doesn’t want him to, then you’re doing something like putting Garko out there and sticking Kotchman at first, which isn’t much better, honestly.
This isn’t some outlandish scenario where two guys crash into each other and have to leave the game. This will be an issue every single time the M’s face an LHP. They’ll just be playing without a fourth outfielder, which will get really old, really fast.
Given this, I think the M’s have to carry another outfielder. Bradley and Byrnes just aren’t reliable enough to count on them being able to cover all the innings in the outfield between them, especially if Byrnes is also the only backup to Gutierrez and Ichiro. And if you’re going to carry another outfielder, that means a five man bench, which means an 11 man pitching staff.
That they signed Garko, and they know all of the stuff I just wrote above, I have to believe that is a real consideration. Jack even mentioned that an 11 man staff would be “ideal” at our USSM gathering in January, but also mentioned that a decision like that would have to be made during spring training, after they look at how the pitching staff shakes out.
Perhaps I’m reading too much into this signing, but I’d bet that Garko’s addition makes it far more likely that the team breaks camp with only six relievers.