Minor League Wrap (5/9-15/11)
Abbreviated stuff. I’m still in NYC and probably won’t have time to respond to comments promptly, but hey, there’s the usual pitcher/hitter/transaction stuff, and a few random notes as I have seen fit. As stated before, the next wrap will be off-schedule as well. Also, we signed a Cuban left-hander last week, and I know at least a few things about him.
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Franklin Gutierrez is back
The Mariners activated Franklin Gutierrez tonight, and sent RHP Tom Wilhelmsen to AA Jackson to get some work in the rotation. Wilhelmsen worked as a starter last year for A Clinton before moving to the pen in the Arizona Fall League.
Gutierrez has played fairly well for AAA Tacoma in a de facto spring training assignment. He hasn’t played a ton of CF; he frequently gave way to a replacement late in games, and played several games as the designated hitter. Still, with Michael Saunders in deep freeze at the plate, the M’s obviously thought the time was right to bring Guti up.
This won’t fix the M’s defensive woes by itself, but it certainly helps an anemic offense and a surprisingly poor defense. I think expectations should be limited for a while, but he’s still a far sight better than Saunders.
Game 41, Twins At Mariners
Hernandez vs Liriano, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
A year ago, this would have been a fantastic match-up, but right now, Francisco Liriano is a shell of what he was. He’s not throwing strikes, he’s not getting strikeouts, and he’s been one of the worst pitchers in the American League. There’s talent there, but if the M’s let him get himself in trouble, he probably will. Patience is a virtue tonight.
Also, Geoff Baker suggests that Dustin Ackley is not coming up tomorrow. While he doesn’t have any direct quotes from team officials, he’s in a position to have someone in the front office tell him this directly without putting it on the record, and he has better access to information than I do, so take his report with more credence than what I was told this afternoon.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Cust, DH
J. Wilson, 2B
M. Wilson, LF
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Ackley Coming Up “Soon” – Maybe Tomorrow
Yesterday, Jack Zduriencik went on KJR with Mitch Levy and said that Dustin Ackley would be up “sooner than later”. Ackley then proceeded to hit a home run on the first pitch of the Rainiers game today and added a couple of singles as well, giving him another three hit day and continuing his torrid run through the PCL of late. This afternoon, I was told that soon could equal tomorrow, as the organization is apparently considering promoting Ackley to the roster after tonight’s game.
Now, I want to make sure this is all spelled out; It wasn’t Jack who told me this, so the information could be wrong. He also didn’t say that they were definitely calling him up – the way it was described to me is that they were going to talk about whether he should come up tomorrow. The Rainiers have an off-day to travel back from New Orleans, and so from a logistical standpoint, there are reasons to do it tomorrow. The team probably would prefer he debut at home to a warm reception, and may rather call him up while he’s scorching hot rather than waiting a few weeks and having a potentially cooled off Ackley make his debut with a little less confidence.
They might decide to just leave him down for a few more weeks in order to get past the presumed deadline for Super Two status, but I was told that wasn’t much of a consideration because most people in baseball don’t think the Super Two statute will still exist by the time Ackley would be eligible for it. It’s a part of the arbitration rules that no one really likes, and it could easily be abolished in the next collective bargaining agreement – the current version expires in December.
The team has already crossed the threshold of service time where Ackley is guaranteed to be under team control through 2017, so they would not lose him to free agency a year early by calling him up now. They do risk the possibility that he ends up qualifying for arbitration after 2013, which could escalate his salaries fairly quickly, but if they believe that Super Two status won’t exist in a few years, than there wouldn’t be any financial harm in calling him up now.
As for who would go away to make room for him, my guess would be Luis Rodriguez. Despite my fondness for the little guy, his line right now is just .173/.279/.308, and there’s a pretty good chance he’d make it through waivers. The M’s could probably flip-flop those two without having to give up any organizational depth or make a call on a Jack Wilson trade right away.
Obviously, we’ll find out tomorrow. I don’t know that the team will call Ackley up, but it’s apparently being talked about. It’s obvious that he’ll be up soon – the only question is whether soon is tomorrow or a few weeks from now.
Game 40, Twins At Mariners, For Real This Time
Pineda vs Baker, 7:10 pm.
The solution to rainouts? Change cities and play under a roof. We’ll actually have some baseball tonight after a couple of impromptu days off. Once again, Eric Wedge has said that he won’t use Brandon League as his closer tonight, wanting to give him a day off. The fact that everyone just had two is apparently not a factor. I’ll officially call that weird.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Olivo, C
Kennedy, 2B
Peguero, LF
Rodriguez, SS
Saunders, CF
The Encouraging Start Of Dustin Ackley
When April ended, Dustin Ackley’s season line for Tacoma read as .211/.336/.305, and the skeptics came out of the woodwork. His slender frame makes it easy to explain poor performances as simply the product of a guy who doesn’t hit the ball all that hard, so even pointing out that his line was driven by a crazy low BABIP wouldn’t satisfy them.
Thankfully, Ackley has responded with a monstrous May performance – after yesterday’s four hit game in New Orleans, his line for the month is now at .344/.453/.590. That said, a rebound in BABIP and a small power spike over two weeks shouldn’t be enough to shift opinions on his timetable or his eventual ceiling, and just as the April concern was misguided and premature, so too would be calling for his promotion based on an even smaller sample of success.
However, there is one area where Ackley is showing real improvement, and it’s something that should be quite encouraging to the Mariners – his ability to hit left-handed pitching. Ackley struggled against southpaws in college and in his professional debut last year, showing little to no power and essentially hoping for a walk to get on base. This year, however, he’s doing quite well against LHPs, with a line of .256/.434/.436. He’s still drawing a ton of walks as usual, but he’s also showing a bit of power, as five of his 10 hits against southpaws have gone for extra bases.
Being able to handle lefties was one of the main things he needed to work on down in Tacoma this year (along with his defense at second base), and the fact that he’s showing progress in that area is great news for the M’s. Ackley’s never going to hit for the kind of power that will make him a masher against right-handed pitcher, so he can’t really afford to post a huge platoon split. He has the swing and the plate coverage to be the kind of hitter who can succeed against same-handed pitchers, but he just hadn’t done it up until this year.
We’re still only talking about 50 plate appearances, but he’s doing things against southpaws that he hasn’t done before. That’s a pretty good sign for the future, and gives more reason for optimism that he might be able to make an immediate impact once he comes up from Tacoma.
Game 40, Mariners At Indians, Round 2
Pineda vs Tomlin, 10:05 am (maybe).
If the rain holds out, then Michael Pineda will take the hill against a team that gave him some pretty big problems in spring training. The Indians can run a bunch of left-handed bats out there in a row, so today could be a good test for him – if they play.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Wilson, 2B
Game 40, Mariners At Indians
Bedard vs White, 10:05 am.
The M’s really need to win one 10-3 pretty soon so that we can all stop having ninth inning anxiety. What a lousy week.
Brandon League is getting the day off today, having thrown (poorly) four times in the last five days, but Wedge says he’s still the M’s closer. It’s the right call – recent struggles or not, he’s the best reliever in the bullpen.
Dan Cortes goes back to Tacoma to make room for new addition Jeff Gray. Also, note the #4 spot in the line-up today – hallelujah.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Wilson, 2B
Game 39, Mariners At Indians
Fister vs Carmona, 4:05 pm.
The M’s claimed reliever Jeff Gray off waivers from the White Sox today – he’s your standard variety sinker/slider right-hander who throws strikes, gets ground balls, and doesn’t strike anyone out. Not the worst thing to have around, especially since Wedge is apparently allergic to using either Wilhelmsen or Cortes – this might give the team the ability to actually have more than a four man bullpen now.
Also, David Aardsma has opted for rehab instead of surgery. He’ll take a month off, then resume rehabbing. He’s still looking a second half return if he can make it back, and I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Kennedy, 2B
Peguero, LF
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Gimenez, C
Why We Can’t Overreact To Last Year
One of the main problems with last year’s team is that they got absolutely nothing from the first base position, so they were unable to generate any offense from a position where most teams had a guy who could pound the baseball. Casey Kotchman was the most notable failure, and his .217/.280/.336 line has been used as an example that Jack Zduriencik’s theory on roster construction is flawed, and the team is focused on acquiring the wrong kind of players.
One year later, Casey Kotchman is hitting .360/.435/.453 for the Tampa Bay Rays. He leads the AL in batting average (among hitters with at least 80 plate appearances), and his success is one of the reasons the Rays are in first place in the AL East.
Baseball is weird and players are inconsistent. Sometimes, good players have bad years, and bad players have good years. It happens. Andrew Friedman isn’t a genius for finding Casey Kotchman this winter, and Jack Zduriencik wasn’t a moron for giving him a job last winter. Both teams took low cost flyers on a guy who has some skills and some flaws, but they’re getting very different results from essentially the same decision.
Last year, the M’s ended up on the wrong side of a lot of bets. They won’t always get the 2010 version of Kotchman instead of the 2011 version. Things like this tend to even out over time, and given enough decent decisions, the M’s will get some unexpected good results out of guys as well. The key is to keep making good bets on players and not overreacting when they don’t pan out.
Judge the process, not the results.