Griffey Retires
Per Ryan Divish on twitter, the M’s have just called an impromptu press conference to announce Ken Griffey Jr’s retirement.
We’ll deal with what this means for the 2010 Mariners tomorrow. I know a lot of you love the guy, so this thread is for you to say goodbye.
The First Base Problem
With a limited budget, the Mariners took a chance on the hope of Casey Kotchman‘s untapped potential. A good hitter in the minors (and in the majors in 2007, his first year of regular playing time), the M’s hoped to buy low on a guy who could be more than he had been previously. In a lot of ways, Kotchman was this year’s Franklin Gutierrez.
Unlike with Death To Flying Things, it hasn’t worked out so well. The M’s talked of tweaking Kotchman’s swing and how he could take advantage of Safeco Field, but 175 plate appearances into the experiment, and Kotchman’s been almost exactly the same guy he was last year (even if the results don’t show it). A quick comparison:
2009: 9% BB%, 11% K%, .114 ISO, 51% GB%, 7% HR/FB
2010: 9% BB%, 12% K%, .123 ISO, 53% GB%, 8% HR/FB
His atrocious batting average is driven by a .201 batting average on balls in play, well below the .283 mark he posted last year, and has taken a decent player and made him useless so far. That will change – he’s not nearly as bad as his overall batting line would indicate.
But, regression to last year’s number isn’t what the M’s were hoping for. He wasn’t supposed to be the same guy as last year. The M’s were betting on improvement, and so far, there hasn’t been any. He’s still pounding the ball into the ground, limiting his ability to hit for power. He doesn’t have an extra base hit since May 5th, despite playing first base almost every day. The defense is nice, but even with a solid glove, he was just a +1 win player in 430 plate appearances last year, and he ended up as a reserve on a contending team.
It’s June, and it’s getting close to the time where the M’s may have to admit that Kotchman isn’t going to be Gutierrez 2.0. They’ve given him a chance to get back to what he was in 2007, and he hasn’t done it. He’s been the exact same disappointing player of the last few years, only with worse luck. And that’s just not going to cut it, no matter what direction the team decides to go in.
If they want to try to contend, they probably need to upgrade at first base. If they want to rebuild, well, Kotchman’s not part of the future here. He’s arbitration eligible at the end of the year, and I don’t think anyone wants to pay him roughly $4 to $5 million to try again next year. He’s a non-tender guy, so barring a monster second half, his Mariner career probably ends with 2010. So, you’re not building for the future by running him out there either.
No matter which way they go, the direction probably shouldn’t include Casey Kotchman, starting first baseman. They either need to upgrade the position or give the playing time to someone who might actually be around in 2011.
Game 51, Twins at Mariners
Blackburn vs Vargas, 7:10 pm.
For Vargas, it should be an interesting night. On one hand, the Twins line-up is very left-handed, which helps him. On the other hand, those left-handed hitters are really good, so that’s kind of a problem. I’d expect more fastballs than usual tonight, but if he doesn’t have pinpoint location, there’s a good chance the folks in the right field bleachers could have some souvenir chasing to do.
With the team finally done facing a string of lefties, Saunders is back in the line-up playing left field. Fear not, though, as Mike Sweeney is still in there, hitting clean-up, as Saunders gives Bradley the day off instead. I wonder if Wak realizes that Mr. Hot Bat is 1 for his last 14. In and of itself, that is meaningless information, of course, but considering that the only justification for playing him is that he’s “swinging a hot bat”, I’d say its kind of relevant to note that, well, he’s not.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Sir Hugs A Lot, DH
Lopez, 3B
Kotchman, 1B
Josh Wilson, SS
Alfonso, C
Saunders, LF
A New Feature On FanGraphs
Taking a quick break from the Mariners (let’s be honest, we all need it), I wanted to let you guys know about a new feature that was rolled out over at FanGraphs this morning – customizable stat reports on every player page.
Since the days of baseball cards and looking at weekly leaderboards in the USA Today, we’ve all become accustomed to consuming the statistics that are offered to us. For years, people believed in Batting Average, Home Runs, Runs Batted In, Wins, and ERA, because those were the numbers that the media presented to them. Over time, better metrics were introduced, but it’s always been up to you to go find them. Now, however, FanGraphs is giving you the chance to create a custom report that goes at the top of every single player page on the site, with the stats that you want to see, and nothing else.
Here’s mine, using Franklin Gutierrez as an example.
I get everything I want on one line – age, plate appearances, BA/OBP/SLG and his wOBA in one box, allowing me to see how well he’s hit in each year of his career. In the next box, I have the factors that make up the first part, showing where his performance is coming from – walk rate, strikeout rate, isolated slugging, ground ball rate, home run to fly ball ratio, and batting average on balls in play. This section shows me where the value is coming from, and whether its something we might be able to identify as real improvement (the spike in BB%, for instance) or whether its mostly luck (like his current BABIP, which he won’t keep up). Finally, I get total value breakdowns, with his offensive and defensive run values above average and a total WAR value.
But, you don’t have to be like me. Maybe you want to see how often a guy is swinging, and what kinds of pitches he’s swinging at? No problem, all the plate discipline stats are there for you to pick from. Want to know how clutch a guy has been? Pick from the win probability stats, which take the game context into account. Want to see what types of pitches he’s doing well against? Our linear weights pitch type values are part of the customization package. Or, hey, if you want to be old school, stick BA, HR, and RBI on there. It’s really up to you.
There’s a reason we partnered with FanGraphs – it’s stuff like this. Fan friendly, practically useful tools to help you understand and enjoy the game better. You don’t have to go hunting for high quality statistics anymore. Now, they come to you.
M’s Panic, Do Stupid Thing
The Mariners decided to shake up the roster after a third straight one run loss, which could have been a good thing. Instead, they decided to scapegoat Kanekoa Texeira, making the ridiculous decision to designate him for assignment, ending his career as a Mariner. More wisely, they also DFA’d Jesus Colome, using the roster spots to recall Sean White and Garrett Olson.
The M’s obsession with Sean White continues to baffle the mind. Make no mistake – Sean White is a horrible pitcher, and anyone who tells you otherwise is wrong. He’s thrown 112 innings in the major leagues, posting an xFIP of 5.33. Replacement level for a reliever is about 4.50. White doesn’t do anything well. Despite the reputation as a sinkerball guy, he doesn’t get that many ground balls (career rate of 49 percent, 44 percent this year, league average is about 44 percent), he doesn’t strike anyone out (career 3.94 K/9, which is atrocious), and he doesn’t throw strikes (career 3.70 BB/9). He does not possess a single major league skill. He’s Triple-A fodder, the kind of mediocre middle reliever that every team in the PCL has several of. Put simply, he sucks.
You know who doesn’t suck? Kanekoa Texeira, who is better at absolutely everything than Sean White. His fastball has more movement, his breaking ball is a legitimate outpitch, and he’s shown the ability to actually get hitters from both sides of the plate out. Yes, the sample size is ridiculously small (18 2/3 innings in the majors), but even with his recent struggles, his 4.32 xFIP is a run better than White’s mark, because he actually has pitched pretty well at times. He has present value and future value – two things Sean White does not currently have, nor will he ever have.
I’d call this rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but by getting rid of Texeira, it’s more like tossing one of the life preservers over board. He’s a legitimate major league reliever, and one of the few guys in the bullpen who could get lefties out. Yes, he had a couple of bad outings, but dumping him is just dumb. You know who is still here, though? Matt Tuiasosopo, he of the .383 OPS. And now we have his equally crappy relief twin back on the team. This is all just so stupid.
Meanwhile, the problems with the roster are no more fixed than they were before this pseudo purge. This is just as useless as firing Alan Cockrell, but with more downside, as the Mariners actually got rid of part of the solution.
Remember that front office of last year that did everything right? I want that one back. This one isn’t much fun. This team could be good, but the front office is finding new and creative ways to screw it up. Chalk up another bad decision in a trend that is getting really annoying.
Game 50, Twins at Mariners
Liriano vs Fister, 7:10 pm.
The Mariners got a bit of a break when they rolled into Anaheim and got to face both Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders, the two worst starters on the Angels roster. They couldn’t take advantage, however, and now have to try to get back on the winning path against a much better southpaw. Among starters with at least 50 innings so far this year, Liriano is fourth in the AL in xFIP, behind only Ricky Romero, James Shields, and Jon Lester. He may not be all the way back to his 2006 form, but this version is plenty good enough, and the M’s will be lucky to put a couple of runs on the board against him.
So, Doug Fister is going to have to be brilliant again, but this time he does so against one of the league’s better line-ups. Even without Orlando Hudson in the line-up, Fister’s still going to have to figure out how to keep Span, Mauer, Morneau, and Thome off the bases, no easy feat for a right-hander who relies on his fastball a lot. As much as the M’s could really use a win to lift their spirits after the last few days, they have to be a really big underdog tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Bradley, LF
Is He Still On Fire Even Though He’s One For His Last Ten?, DH
Lopez, 3B
Josh Wilson, SS
Johnson, C
Tuiasosopo, 1B
Comments Back On
I’ve re-enabled comments for now. If we have too many more instances like this weekend, I may just have to consider permanently disabling them. I know its a nice outlet for you guys to have your voices heard, but there are some comments that just should not be given a platform (such as the racist stupidity of Saturday’s game thread), and it’s a lot of work to keep up with the site 24/7 to keep the site free of that kind of drivel. Put simply, the reward has to be worth the effort, and that is on you guys to make the comments a place where conversation can flourish and serve as a place of insight and civility. Please do better.
That goes for you too, Mariners. Please do better.
Comments Off
It’s a holiday weekend and we’re not going to be around as much the next few days, and since a few morons decided to act like three year olds in the game thread today, I’ve turned comments off for a few days. Sorry. Blame the idiots.
Game 48, Mariners at Angels
Hernandez vs Weaver, 1:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
The M’s have flip-flopped Felix and Snell in order to keep Felix on a more regular schedule. It doesn’t hurt that it also gives them a chance to win this game, where a Snell-Weaver match-up would have you penciling a loss in before the game started. As always, the key to beating Jered Weaver is to hit the ball over the fence – home runs are his big flaw, and if you can get around on one of his high four-seam fastballs, he can be beat. If you don’t put one or two over the wall, though, he’s probably going to shut you down.
The obsession with Tui continues, as he starts at first base even against a right-hander. If you’re going to start him this weekend, why not last night against a lefty? And if you don’t want to play Kotchman at first base today, how about Langerhans, who hasn’t played in a couple of weeks? Oh, right, Tui did well in spring training, and we’re still slaves to March performance.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Bradley, DH
Lopez, 3B
Tuiasosopo, 1B
Josh Wilson, SS
Johnson, C
Saunders, LF
Game 47, Mariners at Angels
Lee vs Kazmir, 7:05 pm.
Baseball is always talking about rule changes that could make the game more appealing to fans, or at least not last as long. In general, most casual fans apparently think baseball games drag on too long and are too boring, neither of which I agree with, but I can at least see where they’re coming from. So, Major League Baseball, you want to make the game more appealing to people? I have a suggestion – ban Scott Kazmir from the game.
Seriously, as much as I’m looking forward to watching Cliff Lee pitch tonight, I’m equally disgusted by the thought of having to sit through a Kazmir start. He’s the ultimate mix of bad pitching, bad command, and painfully slow between pitches. The average time of game started by Scott Kazmir this year is just under 16 days – okay, not really, but it feels like it.
No matter how many runs the Mariners score tonight, we’re all losers, because we’re going to be subjected to the ridiculousness that is Scott Kazmir on the mound. God help us all.