Franklin Gutierrez Appreciation Thread
Because a picture says a thousand words:
Wins Above Replacement, Center Fielders, 2008 to 2010:
A Few Quick Links
I have a couple of posts nearly done, but nothing ready to go, and didn’t want to leave you guys without some content this morning, so let’s just turn on the link machine.
First off, here’s the audio of my interview with Chris Egan and Brock Huard from yesterday.
If you aren’t tired of listening to me talk, I also was a guest on the Bloomberg Sports podcast – the conversation is a mix of Mariners stuff and FanGraphs stuff, but if you can’t get enough fast talking, there you go.
Speaking of FanGraphs, R.J. Anderson stole some of my thunder on a post I’ve been working on, refuting the idea that the M’s pitching and defense formula can’t work. The Padres are doing just fine with exactly the same plan as the M’s – minimal offense but fantastic run prevention. Despite the M’s struggles so far, do not make the mistake of believing that a team has to have some big thumping bats in order to win. If Chone Figgins, Jose Lopez, and Casey Kotchman were hitting at their expected levels, we’d be staring at a wildly different record.
Rainiers game thread 5/27…maybe
Another off-day for the M’s, another chance to check in with the Tacoma Rainiers down the road.
If you’ve tuned in to 850am (for out of area folks, you can listen on line here), you’re aware that they’re completing the suspended game from yesterday (it just ended 2-1, OKC). You may also be aware that it’s pouring.
IF the regularly scheduled game takes place, it’ll feature Luke French for Tacoma versus Doug Mathis for Oklahoma City.
Rangers prospect Tanner Scheppers started the first game today, which began in the 5th. He went three innings, gave up no hits/runs and struck out 7. Last year, Neftali Feliz made a big splash with the Rangers after a mid-year promotion. Sadly for M’s fans, Scheppers could do the same this year. Given his health problems, he’s not a bankable #1 going forward, but the righty hit 98 today and showed a nasty slider. He’s good, and if his arm stays healthy (a huge if), he can impact the divisional race in August/September.
Edited to add photos of Scheppers from tonight below….
Weekly ESPN Radio Hit
Mike Salk’s on vacation, but Chris Egan of King5 is filling in for him, so I’ll still be doing my weekly 12:30 radio spot on ESPN 710. You can listen live here or simply turn the radio dial.
Relatively
I believe that according to announced attendance, the Sounders have outdrawn the Mariners every time both teams have played at home on the same date this year. Today, playing at night while the M’s went early, they got within shouting distance of doubling the M’s total.
4/17, Mariners 31,647 to Sounders 35,924
5/1, Mariners 30,225 to Sounders 36,219
5/8, Mariners 30,446 to Sounders 36,273
5/26, Mariners 22,422 to Sounders 40,122
I don’t know what MLS’ standard for sales is, but MLB uses tickets sold and not butts in seats.
Tenn for Tenbrink
Dave may be missing out on seeing the system’s best pitcher in Michael Pineda (Robles isn’t a bad consolation prize), but one player of interest that he will be seeing is LF Nate Tenbrink, who was promoted on the off day with Joe Dunigan hitting the DL.
Tenbrink is one of the bigger stories in the minor league system right now because he was hitting .379/.452/.649 for the High Desert Mavericks while going fourteen for fifteen on stolen base attempts. With a month and a half in the books, he’s maintained a 1.100 OPS after he hitting only .282/.357/.431 last season. He’s nearly surpassed his triple and home run totals for all of last season in just forty-three games played, and is on pace to increase his walk totals by 50%. So what in the blue blazes is going on with him?
Coming into the ’08 draft, Tenbrink was lauded for his physical tools, but was regarded as a guy for whom the game didn’t come naturally. Brilliant in batting practice, he’d show a mediocre approach in the games. On the field, he’d make a flashy play one inning and then botch the next grounder. His arm was strong, but he threw too many balls away. If tools had been the main criteria for judging a player, he would have easily gone in the first five rounds, but as it stood, he slipped to the M’s in the seventh.
So what can we say about Tenbrink’s performances now? For two straight months, Tenrbink has run a BABIP of over .400. His overall line drive rate is around 12.5%, if the splits are to be believed, but he seems to be hitting everything hard and the balls are dropping in for him. Ordinarily, there would be reason for a great deal of caution in evaluating these stats, but here are a couple of reasons why Tenbrink might be different.
One is the home/road splits. We’d expect that he be able to hit in Mavericks Stadium, because frankly, everyone competent does. The unusual thing with Tenbrink though is that he hits better on the road. In Adelanto, he’s posting an average of .395/.490/.556, with a BABIP of over .450. While touring the rest of the California League, he’s hitting .366/.416/.731 noticeably lower walk numbers and a drop in BABIP, but it’s accompanied by a spike in power. Unlike Poythress on the other side of the diamond, these aren’t necessarily park aided either. Where Poythress has five or more dingers in a known hitters haven in Lancaster, two of Tenbrink’s home runs have come in San Jose, which has a park factor of 81 of 100 for home runs off left-handed bats.
Another reason to think that Tenbrink might be turning into a legitimate prospect is his left-right splits. Acknowledging that the left-handed sample is only 53 at-bats, there’s no BABIP difference between the two and he only loses about fifty points of OPS against southpaws. He does seem to hit them a bit differently, with a 17% line drive rate and 56% fly balls, compared to less than 11% line drives and 39% flyballs on right-handers, but that and eye numbers aside, the results are close, and normalizing for luck only brings them closer.
Tenbrink’s true level of talent is not likely going to be this kind of production going forward, but a .900 OPS at the minor league level doesn’t seem unreasonable for him. Aside from whether the offense is sustainable or not, one major question I do have for him is what position he’ll play in the future. He has all the tools to play the infield, but inconsistencies have pushed him primarily to left, where he’ll likely spend most of his time for the D-Jaxx.
It’s not easy to place his performances in a good context just yet, but his stock is certainly on the rise.
Game 46, Tigers at Mariners
Bonderman vs Vargas, 12:40 pm.
The M’s look to win their first series since playing Kansas City a month ago. Also interesting – Jason Vargas’ xFIP is now slightly higher than it was a year ago, 4.71 to 4.68. So much for all those early strikeouts he was racking up. That 3.08 ERA won’t last much longer, but he’s still a perfect fit for Safeco, so like Washburn, he can be expected to outperform his peripherals to an extent.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Bradley, DH
Hot Streak Hero, 1B
Lopez, 3B
Bard, C
Josh Wilson, SS
Saunders, LF
Game Forty-Five Recap
Yay, 17-28.
Milton Bradley makes this line-up better. Having him hit clean-up, where he can actually drive in Ichiro and Gutierrez, is the best possible chance this team has of scoring runs on a nightly basis. Let’s hope his two big hits off of Verlander convince Wak of that, and Bradley sticks around in the #4 spot for the rest of the season. It’s where he belongs.
Doug Fister wasn’t great tonight, but he again showed the power of throwing strikes. Even with breaks not going his way, his willingness to pound the strike zone limited the damage that the Tigers could do. He’ll never be an ace with his limited ability to strike batters out, but there’s room in a rotation for a guy who just never walks anyone. For a back-end starter, the Mariners could do a lot worse.
How good is Franklin Gutierrez? Another opposite field home run, a huge eighth inning walk off Verlander to get Bradley to the plate, and the hard hit single in the first where he got on base in front of Milton before the home run… he was part of all three rallies the M’s had, and his development as a hitter just continues. Our star defensive center fielder can now hit a little bit too.
People love to talk about things that don’t show up in a box score – Chone Figgins slide on the throw home in the eighth inning is one of those things. Ordonez’s throw was pretty good, and if Figgins takes the normal “slide before you get to the plate and try to touch it with your foot” approach, I’m not sure he gets in there. Instead, he smartly runs directly to the plate, then hooks behind the catcher and catches the plate with his hand. By the time Avila went to swipe where Figgins foot would have been, he’d already passed him and been called safe. Just a tremendous piece of baserunning by Figgins there, scoring on a play where probably 90 percent of runners would have been thrown out.
Nice to see the M’s pick up a win against Justin Verlander. Even if the Tigers didn’t have Miguel Cabrera, this was still a game they could have easily lost, but that they need to win to keep their season alive. Here’s to hoping they can get another one tomorrow afternoon.
Game 45, Tigers at Mariners
Verlander vs Fister, 7:10 pm.
Credit where its due – we get the good line-up tonight. You might quibble with Saunders hitting behind Josh Wilson or something, but realistically, given this roster, this is the best team the Mariners can put on the field. Here’s to hoping they can put some runs on the board and convince Wak to stick with it going forward.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Bradley, DH
Lopez, 2B
Kotchman, 1B
Bard, C
Josh Wilson, SS
Saunders, LF
Rainiers game thread 5/24
The M’s are off tonight, but the Rainiers are playing Oklahoma City in Tacoma in a few minutes.
Chris Seddon takes the hill for Tacoma, who are coming off a sweep of New Orleans.
Oklahoma City features some of the top arms in Texas’ system, with Tanner Scheppers, Pedro Strop, and Alexi Ogando anchoring the bullpen.
Tune in to Mike Curto on 850am, or catch the broadcast at MiLB’s gameday audio site.
The starting line-up for Tacoma:
1: Chris Woodward – 2B
2: Jack Hannahan – SS
3: Brad Nelson – RF
4: Tommy Everidge – DH
5: Mike Carp -1B
6: Greg Halman – CF
7: Matt Mangini – 3B
8: Eliezer Alfonso – C
9: Ezequiel Carrera – LF