Anticipating Snell
With the team’s playoff chances down the drain, we now get reacquainted with the age old Seattle summer tradition – finding interest in things outside of wins and losses. Over the past few years, we’ve gotten pretty good at learning how to enjoy a ballgame without being overly invested in the final result. If they win, great, but even if they don’t, at least Young Guy X or New Pitch Y looked good.
So, we’re probably all a little extra excited for Ian Snell’s Mariner debut tonight. Even if they lose, at least we’ll have something besides a flyball lefty on the mound for once. So, what should we look for from Snell?
For starters, he has a fairly typical three pitch repertoire. He throws a four seam fastball at 89-93, and he pitches up in the zone with it, leading to a decent amount of swinging strikes and fly balls. He has a slider that’s 80-85 and is a weapon against right-handed bats, and has traditionally been his best pitch. He also throws an 82-84 MPH change-up that could use some work against left-handed hitters, who have hit him well over his career.
Looking at his walk rates, you’d think command was a big problem for Snell, but for the most part, it’s not. He can spot his pitches fairly well, and repeats his delivery without much effort. His walk problems come from a lack of an out pitch against lefties. Since his change is below average and his slider dives into their wheelhouse, he’s left to nibble with his fastball. That’s why he has a career 13% BB% against LH batters and only 7% against RH hitters.
In some ways, the best way to think of Snell is like Brandon Morrow with less velocity. The strengths and weaknesses are similar, and like Morrow, the key for Snell will be to get his secondary stuff up to the point where he can throw it in the strike zone with confidence. The Rangers have some good LH bats and the ball is obviously traveling well in Texas right now, so try not to judge Snell by his results tonight.
The key will be to watch the change-up against lefties. That’s going to be the pitch that makes or breaks him as a starting pitcher, and if he can use it effectively tonight, it’s a great sign for the future.
Game 104, Mariners at Rangers
Happy Felix Day! Hernandez v. Hunter, 5:05.
RF-L Ichiro
1B-L Branyan
2B-R Lopez
DH-L Griffey
CF-R Gutierrez
3B-L Hannahan
SS-R Wilson
LF-L Langerhans
C-R Johnson
Minor changes in batting order don’t matter that much, but the one thing that does is you want your best hitters at the top (so they bat more often) and your worst hitters at the bottom. You could just rank your hitters that way, use it as your lineup order, and hardly go wrong.
With that in mind, this is the first time all year that Rob Johnson has batted ninth. He’s batted as high as sixth six times.
Shelton gets DFAd
In one sense, Chris Shelton is freed.
In another, more real sense, it’s inexplicable why Mike Sweeney is taking a roster spot while Shelton is punted.
Rotation comparison
The rotation that started 2008, with salaries:
Erik Bedard $7,000,000
Felix Hernandez $540,000
Carlos Silva $12,000,000
Jarrod Washburn $9,850,000
Miguel Batista, $9,000,000
I’m counting Silva’s signing bonus in the year he signed, if you’re wondering, since the three free agents all had contracts with a low(er) first-year salary number, then mostly level for the remaining years.
The current rotation, with salaries:
Felix Hernandez $3,800,000
Ian Snell $3,000,000
Ryan Rowland-Smith $420,000
Luke French $400,000
Jason Vargas $405,000
In case you need another illustration of why spending money on free agent pitchers is generally a bad idea – yes, the rotation now costs less combined than any of Silva, Batista, or Washburn did individually, and will perform just as well if not better. You wouldn’t equal any of their salaries even if you tack on Garrett Olson and Brandon Morrow to make fill-in starts as necessary. That’s a lot of money left over that can go toward (another bat/Ackley’s signing bonus/a long-term contract for Felix/resigning Beltre) whatever good use Zduriencik finds for it. Unfortunately, we’re still paying Silva and Batista. No, we shouldn’t try to sign Washburn again after the season.
Game 103, Mariners at Rangers
Vargas vs. Padilla, 5:05 pm PDT
It looks like the other “major” announcement of the deadline is that RHP Ian Snell is due up in the rotation after Felix, which would put him on pace to start for the USSM/LL gathering at Safeco on August 8th. After Snell, we’ll have Hyphen again and then either French or Olson.
The lesser thing that was not “announced” exactly but is good news no less is that Branyan is back in the lineup, having not played since the 25th. Gutierrez continues to bat second while Branyan moves to third.
Lineup:
RF Ichiro!
CF Gutierrez
1B Branyan
2B Lopez
DH Griffey
C Johjima
SS Wilson
3B Hannahan
LF Saunders
Luke French
It’s no secret that we wanted Washburn traded and had little to no interest in retaining him for 2010. So, if the M’s moved him, we were going to be happy, even if the guys they got back weren’t much to write home about. But should you be excited about Luke French?
Depends on your expectations. He has extremely low ceiling for a 23-year-old – as a guy with an 87 MPH fastball who pitches up in the zone and depends on his breaking ball to get outs, he’s not that much different than Garrett Olson in terms of raw stuff. And I know that most of you are sick and tired of watching Garrett Olson take the mound, so that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.
However, there’s a pretty big difference between the two – French can actually get right-handed hitters out. Olson’s problem as a starter is that he gets destroyed by RHBs, and opposing managers can just stack the line-up with them when he’s in the rotation. French, however, uses his change-up effectively to keep RHBs off balance – he actually ran a better BB/9 and K/9 against righties than lefties in Triple-A this year.
That won’t continue in the majors (and it hasn’t during his first few appearances), but he’s not totally hopeless against RHBs. As an exteme flyball lefty, he’s going to get the same bump from Safeco and the outfield defense that Washburn did, and while he doesn’t have as varied of an arsenal, there are reasons to expect French and Washburn to be near equals going forward.
Between French, Rowland-Smith, Vargas, and Olson, the M’s now have four LHPs who all take advantage of the cavernous left field area in Safeco Field. Odds are they’ll be able to get two quality starters out of that group, and with Felix/Snell/Morrow around, the team has options for the front of the rotation as well.
French will probably never be an all-star, but as more depth for the back-end of the rotation, and a guy who should benefit greatly from the context he’s coming to, you should be quite happy with the return.
Washburn to Detroit
For Luke French and Mauricio Robles.
Awesome. French is Washburn – a strike throwing flyball lefty who fits Safeco perfectly and should slide in as a nice back-end starter. He just doesn’t cost any money, and we have him for the next six years. That they threw in Robles, a 20-year-old lefty with a ton of strikeouts in A-ball, is just gravy.
This is a fantastic deal. The M’s didn’t even get worse. It’s 50-50 on who pitches better the next two months, French or Washburn. And, of course, we get to keep French next year without paying anything for him.
Sweet, sweet deal.
Act now!
Teams, where do you think you’re going to find a durable veteran left-hander with playoff experience for your stretch drive? Do you think a pink pegasus is going to swoop down next to the mound before your next game and one’s going to step off, already wearing your uniform?
Snap out of it! You want an ace? How about a 2.64 ERA? Two! Six! Four! 5.35 K/9? 2.23 BB/9? Sure, he’s a flyballer, but but he’s only giving up home runs on what, 6% of them? You won’t even get that from your expensive groundballers. You’ll only get that from Jarrod Washburn, available today!
You might say “that sounds too good to be true”. Listen, you! After years of grinding out starts with good-but-not-great stuff, Washburn’s finally found a weapon to match his veteran savvy and menacing grimace: a new two-seam fastball, newly mastered, that makes opposing hitters next to helpless. Have you seen it? Go call your scouting guys, roll some video.
Yeah, nice, huh? Washburn’s been throwing that all year. Roll more tape if you want proof, but don’t take too long — your competition won’t. Why, if he’d figured that pitch out early in his career he might have more hardware than hunting rifles racked up at his house. But then his price would be that much higher as an established name.
Speaking of price. You might be worried what Washburn will cost. Your whole farm system? Two, three major-league starters? Not at all. The Mariners, racked by lowered attendance and freshly dropped from the race, need to build for tomorrow, and they are ready to deal. They’re not asking for some Halladay-like haul, not some Lee-style looting. No! Call now and the Mariners will hand-select a couple guys off the farm system, names most of your fan base won’t even recognize. You know what they do recognize though? Pennants. You want pennants, you want this pitcher.
And if you act now, as a bonus, we’re willing to shore up your bullpen as well. You need right-handed help that can also write a gripping crime novel or poetry! We’ll include one at no extra charge! Or you might prefer a fire-throwing youngster — the Mariners can give you one as well.
And if you call by the trade deadline tomorrow, you’ll get the Mariner Moose! That’s right, the beloved, now parasite-free mascot that makes kids scream in glee and can be used to injure opposing players without consequence can be yours when you call the Seattle Mariners now! Don’t delay!
T-Minus 16 Hours
The trading deadline is at 1 pm local time tomorrow. If you’re looking for good news, well, don’t read below.
Melvin said he talked to clubs about “10 or 12†starting pitchers this week without coming close to a trade. He checked in one last time with Seattle general manager Jack Zduriencik about lefty Jarrod Washburn but talks did not progress.
“It looks like he’s going to keep Washburn,†said Melvin. “He’s going to try to win as many games as he can. Arizona appears to be that way, too, (with pitchers Doug Davis and Jon Garland).â€
Please be posturing. If Washburn is still here tomorrow afternoon, it’s an organizational failure. They have to move him – this is the easiest decision the new front office has had to make. Keeping him for a stretch drive that doesn’t matter would be a really, really poor decision. It’s been nice not having those this year. Let’s not screw that up.
If you want to be encouraged, the upside is that this M’s front office is about as leak-proof as any in baseball. The Mariners just don’t tip their hand to the media, and all of the information about their potential moves is based on information from other clubs. So, none of the rumor journalist types really knows what Jack and the gang are going to do. Here’s to hoping Doug Melvin doesn’t either.
Game 102, Mariners at Rangers
Olson v. Holland, 5:05
I guess it’s a good thing we sent Josh Wilson down, because otherwise how would we know who was starting at shortstop?
RF-L Ichiro
CF-R Gutierrez
2B-R Lopez
DH-R Sweeney
1B-R Shelton
3B-L Hannahan
SS-R Wilson
C-R Johnson
LF-L Saunders