Perhaps if we had two hands and a flashlight
Baker, over at his blog, shares the opinion of an unnamed clubhouse insider–the M’s are crummy because they don’t have enough jerks. No, really.
He told me that what the Mariners lack, to put it bluntly, is more jerks. He didn’t use the word “jerks” — more like a word that rhymes with manholes. Anyway, this insider also didn’t mean jerks like the kind who go around getting into bar fights, driving drunk and such. Just guys with a little more edge to them. Put simply, the Mariners “are too nice” is what he conclude
Wait a minute, now. Weren’t the Mariners so good in 2001 because they didn’t have any jerks? I realize Baker wasn’t here then, but still. This whole thing gets back to the argument that winning breeds so-called “good chemistry,” not the other way around. Well not quite that exact argument, but similar.
Win… Or Go Home
It’s May 21st. The season is seven weeks old, and the Mariners have only played 25% of their season schedule to date. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played. Or, as you’ll hear people say all around the country, its early.
In most cities, that’s true. Not in Seattle, though. The Mariners struggles over the weekend while the Angels surged ahead have put them squarely at a crossroads. At 19-20, the M’s stand five games behind the Angels, and while five games doesn’t sound like a lot, it is a big lead. It would be one thing if the Mariners were clearly the most talented team in the division or had a hall of fame pitcher building up arm strength in Double-A while waiting to join the rotation. But that’s not the Mariners – this is a flawed team with issues hitting right-handed pitching and no answers in the back of the rotation.
This team can’t afford to dig any kind of significant hole. They are teetering on the edge of putting themselves into a situation that they can’t get themselves out of.
Cool Standings gives the Mariners a 4% chance of making the playoffs. The BP playoff odds report is a little kinder, putting the mark at 11%. Either way, that’s a veritable longshot.
This Mariners team isn’t good enough to run down a better Angels team late in the year. This Mariner team needs to keep on the Angels heels the entire year. The M’s simply have to begin winning ballgames starting today. With back to back series with Tampa Bay and Kansas City after the one game interlude in Cleveland, the M’s have a chance to make up some ground before they travel to Anaheim. They need a 5-2 or 6-1 east coast swing before they come back west to face the Angels, because a 4-3 or 3-4 trip against some easy opponents is only going to serve to put the M’s down 6 or 7 games in the standings and give the Angels a chance to drive a nail into the coffin of the M’s playoff hopes.
It’s only May, but it’s not early. The M’s need to win, and they need to do it this week.
Felix and rehab
Baker makes an interesting point on the Times blog:
All I’ll say about Hernandez is that he looks like a guy who could have used a rehab assignment before stepping back in to face major league hitters.
Here’s the interesting thing: I totally agree, and I totally understand why they didn’t.
I made the point during the first start, but Felix’s return, where he didn’t look fine, and really, as Baker notes, like someone who would have been better off with a rehab assignment or two, picking up innings working more easily even if that meant finding him a start in AA or wherever.
But! Felix’s short, tentative, ill return was better than any Jeff Weaver start this year. If you’d had the choice, ahead of time, between Weaver and that Felix start, you’d take Felix’s. The team, illusory or not, was competing for the division lead, and it wouldn’t have made much of a difference to Felix’s recovery if he worked there, with instructions to limit his use of breaking pitches, or did the same thing in the minors.
Similarly, today: in an ideal world, he gets a second start in the minors to get even better, work on his stuff, and it’s clear that while he’s better than he was the last time he took the mound, he’s still not quite all there.
But his start today was better, really, than anything we’ve received from any non-Washburn starter in the rotation this year. That’s a sad comment on how bad the 3-4-5 guys have been, but it also makes it entirely understandable why the team’s better off having a shaky Felix up and working out his issues here than they are with Weaver taking his turns and waiting.
This just in
Today is Felix Day.
Vidro, steal maker
A math-filled exploration into how serious Vidro’s DP problem is. Stats drawn from ESPN’s splits, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus.
Run Expectation (2006)
Runner on first, no outs: .93 runs
Runner on second, no outs: 1.15 runs
No runners on, two outs: .11 runs
32% of balls Vidro puts into play go for hits
49% of balls Vidro puts into play are grounders
Using what I can get out of ESPN’s splits:
He had 30 PA with someone on first
He had 13 PA with runners on first and second
He has 4 PA with runners on first and third
= 47 PA where GIDP was a possibility if there were zero or one out.
He came up with runners on with two out 20 times, and runners on 74 times. That’s 27% of the time (I thought it would be 33% too)
Of those 47 PA, ~13 should be with two outs, so he came up 34 times with a DP possible. He hit into a double play 7 times, so about 20% of the time he has the chance, he’s GIDPing. That doesn’t even count situations where the runner went on the pitch in order to try and stay out of the DP.
For the sake of simplicity, I’m going to use “runner on first, no outs” for the run calculations here.
Man on first, no outs, Vidro swings away
7.3% of the time, he walks (.93 runs expected –> 1.58 runs = + .63 runs)
25% of the time, he singles advancing the runner one base* (.93 runs expected –> 1.58 runs = + .63 runs)
7.2% of the time he strikes out (.93 runs expected –> .56 runs = -.37 runs)
20% of the time, GIDP (.93 runs expected –> .11 runs expected = -.82 runs)
41% of the time, he’s out without wiping the runner out by popping out, flying out, or hitting into a fielder’s choice (.93 runs expected –> .56 runs = -.37 runs)
*using his runners on split here, a .246 average, which is low
Average value of a Vidro PA with a runner on first: -.14 runs
Yaaahoooooooooo! Making some pro-Vidro changes: assume he hits .300, that his non-GIDP outs advance the runner, say, a third of the time, put the power in… I came out at -.1 run/PA with a runner on.
Every time Vidro is up with a runner on first and no outs, the most optimistic scenario I came up with is that he costs the team a tenth of a run.
Vidro is the team’s designated hitter.
The Sacrifice Strategy
Say there’s a runner on first, and Vidro lays down a bunt every time to advance the runner at the cost of an out, and he’s 100% successful at laying down that bunt.
Bunt moves the runner to second: .93 runs –> .74 runs = -.19 runs/PA
You could have a reasonably practiced pitcher pinch-hit for Vidro, lay down a sac bunt, and they’d only be a little worse than Vidro in hurting the team’s chances to score. Vidro is the team’s designated hitter.
All Stolen Base Variant
Ichiro’s career stolen base rate is 81% (244/303). Why not, if he’s on first, have him steal every time to remove the double play? Assume, for purposes of this calculation, that having every other team know that he’s going reduces his success rate substantially.
66% of the time, Ichiro reaches second (+.23 runs)
33% of the time, he’s thrown out (-.64 runs)
= you lose .04 runs/attempt
However… then it changes the whole Vidro at-bat:
Vidro up, Ichiro on second
(using the more pro-Vidro %s)
7.3% of the time, he walks (1.15 runs expected –> 1.58 runs runs = + .43 runs)
30% of the time, he singles advancing the runner one base (1.15 runs expected –> 1.81 runs = + .66 runs)
7.2% of the time he strikes out (1.15 runs expected –> .74 runs = -.41 runs)
20% of the time, out that advances the runner (1.15 runs expected –> .96 runs expected = -.19 runs)
36% of the time, he’s out without wiping the runner out by popping out, flying out, or hitting into a fielder’s choice (1.15 runs expected –> .74 runs = -.37 runs)
Every Vidro PA is now +.03, a swing of at least +.13 runs/ab just by removing the double play
No steal, Vidro’s at least -.1
Steal works, Vidro’s now +.03
Steal fails, Vidro’s PAs also become worth ~.04 (you can just take my word for it or work it out yourself)
The gap between having Ichiro successfully steal second to remove the double play is about the same run value as having Vidro bat normally and having a pitcher lay down a sacrifice bunt in the same situation.
Having Ichiro steal then carries a substantial value to the team above the value of moving 90 feet, by removing the possibility of the double play. So much so that it’s a good move to have Ichiro steal second even if his success rate will be significantly lower: sketching this out, it looks like it’s a good move to have him run all the way down to about 60% success, where normally you want a 75% success rate from your first-to-second stolen bases.
Consider that for a second: our designated hitter is so slow, so unproductive, that it makes sense for the team to pursue what would under normal circumstances be detrimental strategies because they are less harmful than having our designated hitter hit normally.
I sketched this all out a couple of hours, now that I look at the clock, and I still can’t believe that that’s right, and yet… there it is. If there’s a better way to approach the problem, I’d love to hear it. Or, as we say, patches welcome. For more, check out the Fangraphs play log for Vidro.
Ibanez’s decline
Jeff Sullivan looks at Raul Ibanez’s disappearing power with an insightful piece that’s a must read.
Check it out.
The Inconsistent Offense
Watching the team hit this year has been pretty frustrating for most of the season. On some nights, they look tremendous, attacking mistakes over the heart of the plate and racking up runs left and right. On other nights, too frequently, they look like a collection of schoolyard hitters who get themselves out chasing pitches out of the zone. Most of the frustration has been aimed towards Richie Sexson, but he’s not the only one leading an assault on the most outs made leaderboard.
But there’s one issue that hasn’t been talked about that much, and it’s at the heart of the Mariners inconsistency – this line-up is way too right-handed. The standard Mariner line-up features three left-handed hitters: Ichiro, Vidro, and Ibanez. They now hit back-to-back-to-back in the 1/2/3 spots and are then followed by six consecutive RH batters.
Here’s the Mariners regulars and their 2007 OPS vs right-handed pitchers:
1. Ichiro, .827
2. Vidro, .714
3. Ibanez, .649
4. Sexson, .658
5. Guillen, .634
6. Beltre, .697
7. Johjima, .799
8. Betancourt, .607
9. Lopez, .695
Yikes. If you’re a right-handed pitcher that dominates RH batters but has troubles with LH hitters (like, say, Bartolo Colon and his .578 OPS vs RH batters and .888 OPS vs LH batters), the Mariner line-up is a proverbial wet dream. Yea, you have to deal with Ichiro to lead off the game, but then you’re staring at a worst-case-scenario of a single from Turbo before you face the slow bat of Raul Ibanez, which is finally followed by six straight RH batters.
How easy is it to pitch to the Mariners in late game situations? Almost every team has a RH reliever that turns even good RH hitters into likely outs, and the good teams have guys like Scot Shields (.461 OPS vs RH batters) who turn right-handed bats into kindling. The M’s are kind enough to stack their RH hitters together, making for the easiest bullpen decision on earth for opposing managers.
Not surprisingly, the M’s are hitting .257/.318/.388 against right-handed pitchers this year, but when their heavily RH line-up has the platoon advantage, they’re bludgeoning left-handed pitchers to the tune of .293/.332/.481. The problem? The M’s have only faced 8 LH starters this year, and they’re now 6-2 in games when the opponent throws a southpaw at them. But they’re 12-16 when the opponent throws a right-handed pitcher.
Of their own accord, guys like Adrian Beltre, Jose Guillen, and Jose Lopez are valuable players. But when you assemble a team, you have to pay attention to building complementary parts. The Mariners have assembled a line-up of replicas. They’re perfectly built to beat up on guys like Kei Igawa and Nate Robertson, but by refusing to build any kind of effective platoons or balance the line-up with some left-handed power, the team has punted their offense against right-handed pitchers.
And there are a lot more right-handed pitchers than southpaws floating around.
The M’s have a dilemma to face – if they’re serious about contending this year, they have to rebalance the line-up. Getting Ben Broussard in the line-up against righties more often is a start, but he’s not going to fix this problem by himself. There’s no easy answers and no obvious spots to put a newly acquired left-handed hitter, but the lack of answer doesn’t cause this from being any less of a problem.
If the M’s keep running out this line-up, they’re going to feast on left-handed pitching and struggle mightily against right-handed pitching. And that’s simply not how playoff teams are built.
Game 36, Angels at Mariners
Colon v Washburn! Good Washburn Good Washburn Good Washburn
Ichiro – Turbo – Guillen – Sexson – Broussard – Beltre – Johjima – Betancourt – Lopez
v
Willits – Cabrera – Guerrero – Matthews – Quinlan – Hillenbrand – Izturis – Molina – Aybar
I was going to note which Molina, but Molina about covers it.
Also, the PTBNL in the Jason Davis deal has been named – 18 year old RHP Gregorio Rosario. Don’t lose any sleep over it.
Simple answers to questions
Baker on Sexson, and whether they should have pinch-hit for Sexson:
They have to hope he emerges from his sub-.200 slump by June instead of July or August and that’s simply it. You can’t chuck him now and rebuild the plan because Broussard as a full-timer is not going to get it done. Disagree? Then why aren’t teams lining up boatloads of prospects to acquire the low-cost Broussard?
Broussard’s paid $3.5m+ this year, for one, and there’s no need to give up quality prospects to find a cheap, reasonably effective 1B. Part of it’s that the teams where there was a need this off-season and spring, where Sexson might have been traded, found solutions, so there aren’t competitive teams with holes at first or DH looking to make an upgrade anyway. But moreover, it’d be like trading good prospects for a crappy DH – it’s not a move smart teams make.
Game 35, Angels at Mariners
Criminally underrated John Lackey vs not-quite-as-underrated Cha Seung Baek, 7:05 pm.
M’s put Julio Mateo on the temporary inactive list for Tacoma, though he won’t report to the Triple-A club. Basically, he’s still suspended, just with pay.
Standard M’s line-up.