USSM Year-end Best-of: August 2006
8-1 Dave evaluates Gil Meche’s season through July. Then on 8-9 he does a similar breakdown for Felix.
8-8 Dave’s random notes include a section titled “My mother could beat up Willie Bloomquist” on WFB’s isolated slugging of .032
8-11 Dave on Hargrove’s appalling ignorance of his own staff.
8-14 Dave’s great write-up of Byran LaHair
8-15 Catcher defense discussed in the context of Johjima v Rivera.
8-17 I make a joking but still-dangerous statistical case for Carl Everett’s veteran leadership.
And I go insane in the day’s Bloomquist-tastic game thread. You get the post and then nutty comments.
8-18 Then you get snakes on a team.
8-20 Dave finds good news even as the M’s got swept.
8-23 Dave tears apart Hargrove’s late game management.
8-24 In the day’s game thread, Dave talks about meeting Randy Johnson.
8-25 Dave’s writeup on Jeff Clement
8/26 game thread
David Wells famously claims to pitch while drunk. Gil Meche just pitches like he’s drunk, but we’re pretty sure he’s not.
David Wells is a strike throwing machine. Gil Meche wouldn’t even know how to turn on said machine.
8/27 Super-exciting dual post on Bob Finnigan’s retirement column.
8/29 Evaluating pitcher talent
USSM Year-end Best-of: July 2006
7-2: Dave says it’s time to move Ichiro to centerfield.
I loved my “Ichiro clips on YouTube” but MLBAM went through and cease-and-desisted them all. Thanks, MLBAM.
7-3: Jeff versus John McGrath in “McGrath: Ichiro Crippled Reed, Cost Mariners Share of First Place”
7-6: Dave’s “What I would do” ideas for improving the roster.
7-8: Worst outfield of the year.
7-11: Mariner trade value. Followed by 7-20’s: ranking of trade values within the AL West.
7-12: The promotion of Adam Jones.
7-15: It’s worth thinking about changing Safeco Field’s dimensions.
7-16: Hargrove’s bullpen management gets called “Brutal” by Dave
Mike Hargrove is the in-game strategist equivalent of General Custer. I, for one, can’t wait for the last stand.
And in the Game 92 thread, Hargrove’s blind spot for Everett is compared to his intolerance for Choo.
7-17: Mid-season review of 2006’s free agent pitchers.
7-18: Dave’s tying up loose ends post manages to hash on trading for Soriano, discuss buidling a bullpen, and lament the futility of mid-July Carl Everett before hitting the halfway mark.
7-21: “Buyers or Sellers: Why Choose?” Dave argues for a dramatic re-shaping of the team’s roster mid-season.
7-23: Dave breaks down Beltre’s hitting thus far.
7-25: Noah Barker.
7-26: Not a particularly great post, but it contained the news that Everett was DFA and Snelling was joining the team.
7-29: Credit Where It’s Due – Hargrove makes a good bullpen decision! YAYY
USSM Year-end Best-of: February 2006
Slow month at USSM. The position roundtables are about it. (1b, 2b (and follow-up on Bloomquist-as-2b), SS, 3B, LF, CF
2/27:
How many Mariner fans does it take to change a lightbulb?
1: I don’t know, but about 30,000 a night show up hoping to see the lightbulb turn itself around.
2: Changing lightbulbs is unncessary for Mariner fans, who bask endlessly in the luminous goodness of Raul Ibanez’s soul. (props to Jonah for the idea for this one)
Zito gets a seven year, $18m/year deal
Supposedly.
“Sooooo… how about that appeals court ruling?”
“I’m fine.”
“You think between the union, Bonds, and everything else we’ll be able to keep Bonds on the field all year?”
“Sure, why not.”
“It does seem like there’s a fair chance he’s going to jail on perjury charges in the next… year, two years.”
“Nah.”
“That’s a pretty short window of opportunity, between possible retirement or incarceration…”
“Fine, fine, call Boras, tell him we cave.”
Best part: the 2014 option for $18m. Yeaaaaaaah.
2006 Free Agent Signings
With free agency nearly over, and by popular demand, here is my list of the ten best and worst free agent signings this winter. I’ve been vocal in my criticism of some of the decisions made this offseason, and there have been some horrible contracts handed out, but there have also been some good deals signed this winter.
So, without further ado, as of 12/28, the best and worst of the offseason signings:
Best Contracts of 2006
| Rank | Player | Team | Years | Total |
| 1. | M. Mussina | New York Yankees | 2 | $23m |
| 2. | G. Maddux | San Diego Padres | 1 | $10m |
| 3. | A. Pettitte | New York Yankees | 1 | $16m |
| 4. | D. Matsuzaka | Boston Red Sox | 6 | $102m |
| 5. | R. Durham | San Francisco Giants | 2 | $15m |
| 6. | D. Dellucci | Cleveland Indians | 3 | $11.5m |
| 7. | A. Iwamura | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 3 | $13m |
| 8. | M. Alou | New York Mets | 1 | $8.5m |
| 9. | M. DeRosa | Chicago Cubs | 3 | $13m |
| 10 | J. Valentin | New York Mets | 1 | $3.8m |
Honorable Mention: A. Kennedy, F. Thomas, J. Guillen, F. Catalanatto, R. Wolf
Worst Contracts of 2006
| Rank | Player | Team | Years | Total |
| 1. | C. Lee | Houston Astros | 6 | $100m |
| 2. | B. Zito | San Francisco Giants | 7 | $126m |
| 3. | G. Meche | Kansas City Royals | 5 | $55m |
| 4. | J. Pierre | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 | $45m |
| 5. | G. Matthews | Anaheim Angels | 5 | $50m |
| 6. | A. Soriano | Chicago Cubs | 8 | $136m |
| 7. | J. Marquis | Chicago Cubs | 3 | $21m |
| 8. | D. Baez | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | $19m |
| 9. | S. Hillenbrand | Anaheim Angels | 1 | $6.5m |
| 10. | W. Williams | Houston Astros | 2 | $12.5m |
Dishonorable Mention: B. Molina, A. Gonzalez, J. Walker, J. Payton, M. Stanton, C. Bradford
It was a good year to sign aging all-stars to short term deals, as the top three guys on my list are all still among the better pitchers in their respective leagues, and required no long term commitment. There were quite a few good contracts signed, but the albatross deals handed out to mediocre players will be the story of the winter.
Randy Johnson: Yes, Please
If you haven’t heard, Randy Johnson is not only available, but is apparently looking to move back to the west coast, closer to his family, and presumably would prefer a team that spends spring training in his home state.
An above average left-handed starter? Check.
Short term commitment? Check.
Geographic nature of area appealilng? Check.
Big name acquisition to potentially excite fan base? Check.
Hall of Fame pitcher with a chance to end a great career where it began to flourish? Check.
Randy Johnson isn’t the same guy who we remember being the most dominating pitcher of the mid-90s, the guaranteed win who made you want to go to the Kingdome on an 80 degree day and cheer for a dude with a mullet. But he’s still one of the better pitchers in the American League. Really.
Among AL pitchers in 2006, Randy Johnson ranked 11th in strikeout rate and 18th in Fielding Independant ERA. His 4.32 FIP put him in the same category as guys like Ervin Santana and Vicente Padilla and ahead of Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, and Justin Verlander. His ERA of 5.00 wasn’t nearly as impressive, but if you look at his line, there’s one number that stands out:
205 IP, 2.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 61.8% LOB%
Nobody in the American League stranded less baserunners than Randy Johnson. His LOB% of 61.8% is off the charts. Joel Pineiro, for all his horribleness, stranded 63.8% of baserunners. You can generally calculate a player’s LOB% fairly well by using his BB, K, and HR rates, which you could call expected left on base rate. Randy Johnson’s xLOB% was 72%, and the difference between his expected strand rate and his actual strand rate was higher than any pitcher in baseball.
You can think this proves some kind of lack of skill if you want, but it’s not – it’s mostly random variation, and I’d gladly put $100 on a bet that Randy Johnson won’t post the lowest LOB% in the American League in 2007.
The same effect that artificially deflated Jarrod Washburn’s ERA in 2005 pushed Randy Johnson’s ERA higher in 2006. Johnson isn’t an an all-star anymore, but he’s still a very effective starting pitcher, better than any of these clowns who are getting long term, big money deals as free agents this winter.
If the Mariners are serious about adding another starting pitcher to their rotation, Randy Johnson is the obvious choice.
Rumor mill resumes cranking
Shea Hillenbrand signs with the Angels on a one year deal with option.
Discussions between NY and Arizona over Randy Johnson. Supposedly they’d then spend the money on Zito.
Fox Sports reported that the Mariners are thinking about trading Beltre (to who? who knows) so they can further pursue Zito. That doesn’t seem serious: they’re not going to play Burroughs out there. Are they? Having typed that I realize there’s really no ruling out further offseason insanity.
Merry Christmas
Hope you all have a fun, exciting, and interesting holiday with friends, family, or both. Merry Christmas, everyone, and thanks for hanging out with us all year long and making USSM a unique community that I’m proud to be a part of.
Break-time news
We’re almost certainly going to be really bad about updating for the next couple of days as we hang out with family and friends, so bear with us.
Saturday:
Texas acquired Brandon McCarthy, who they intend to start, and OF David Paisano for LHP John Danks, RHP Nick Masset and RHP Jacob Rasner.
Danks was rated the #1 prospect in the BA top 10, and Nick Masset was #8. Paisano didn’t rank for the White Sox.
The Rangers’ statements so far make it seem like they intend to start McCarthy even if they do acquire Zito (but they’re not optimistic that’ll happen). That could be interesting: McCarthy’s ground ball percentage was 38.5%, and Texas’ outfield next year has Lofton in center and Wilkerson’s not too mobile either.
USSM Official Pre-and-post-game Meal Endorsement
So the Pioneer Square Saloon is the best place to meet your friends, have a beer or three, and vent about the team before you head on down to the stadium. What if you want food, and you don’t want to go to Subway or wherever and haul something into said Saloon?
Go to Elysian Fields. 542 1st Ave South. It’s across the street from Qwest Field, right next to Sluggers.
It’s beautiful. I don’t know any other way to put it. It’s spacious, the seating is comfortable, there are TVs and… it’s great. You can see how much care went into the design. I love it.
The beers are great. Elysian’s own brews are delicious. The food’s good. You’re making a tradeoff, though, and it’s obvious when you compare Elysian Fields to what’s next door at Sluggers. Sluggers you can get a giant plastic cup of Bud for $4, and at Elysian, it’s a pint of something nice. At Sluggers, if you can get food, it’s standard bar food at ~$10/sandwich and serviceable. Elysian’s food costs more but it’s genuinely enjoyable. At Sluggers, you can’t get a place to sit, but Elysian there’s a comfortable seat available.
There’s the decision, though: if you want a pre-game bite to eat, and that’s the criterion for this endorsement, and you’re not strapped for cash to the point where you’re willing to haul some food into the Pioneer Square Saloon, this is where you want to go:
– ridiculously good food
– great place
– great beer
And you pay more for it. When I had a job, that was a trade-off I was willing to make. Hopefully they’ll comp me now that I’m unemployed and desperate.
Honorable mention: the J+M up in Pioneer Square. It’s bar food, so you’re paying $8 for that chicken sandwich, but everything I’ve ordered has been good, they have some nice drink specials, and – I kid you not – I once sat around drinking there while they played, start to finish, Sonic Youth’s “Daydream Nation”. That’s so cool.
Pyramid has some great food, and I love their DPA (t’s one of my favorite beers in all the world, which is saying something) but it’s really hard to get a table there, so.. it loses out.
Others considered: FX McCrory’s, I’ve gotten really bad service the vast majority of times I’ve been dragged in there and the food’s not as good as Elysian. Larry’s Whateveritscallednow, which was once upon a time my pre-game hangout. King Street Bar & Oven, which is where I got my food after I stopped going to Larry’s. Many other places.