Doyle’s okay. Or not.
I know I winced when he looked like he pulled something yesterday, but it’s no big deal. Or at least that’s the word on the street. More information as it becomes available.
Soooooooooo information that’s become available is conflicting.
Update update: the conflicting information is in itself bad news.
New Joel
It wasn’t the trip to Tacoma, he hasn’t changed breakfast cereals… if you listened to either broadcast for more than two seconds, you know that the New, Improved Joel now holds his hands way up at the start of his delivery.
August 5th: 6.1 IP, 8H, 2R, 2HR, 1BB, 4K, 104p, 67 strikes
August 11th: 7.2 IP, 7H, 2R, 0HR, 0BB, 4K, 98p, 72 strikes
That’s 42 outs recorded, 8 by strikeout… and 15 hits. 2 were home runs, so 47 balls in play. 32% went for hits, which is about normal for this year’s Mariner defense.
If, by some miracle, putting his hands up was the amazing mystery solution to all of Joel’s problems, that would be awesome. This version would put up average starts, a dramatic improvement from the Joel we’ve seen almost all of this year.
That said, two starts does not make a new pitcher. I remain skeptical that after all the work they’ve done with him, all the things they’ve tried, that something like hand position early in the windup has dramatically improved his mechanics, that those mechanics have resulted in a more effective pitcher, and that Pineiro will be able to consistently maintain them.
Felix Hernandez, Groundball Machine
After two starts, Felix Hernandez has taken Seattle by storm. He has a 0.69 ERA, and we’ve run out of adjectives to explain how great he looked on Tuesday. Ron Gardenhire referred to The Royal Curveball as “a curveball from hell”, for example.
Well, there’s one area of Felix’s pitching that I think deserves a little more attention than it has received. His groundball dominance has been nothing short of amazing to watch. According to ESPN’s tracking (via Stats Inc), through two starts, Felix has induced 26 groundballs and allowed 6 flyballs, for a 4.3 to 1 ratio. The Hardball Times, which gets proprietary play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions, has his mark at 5.4 to 1. And, according to Baseball Prospectus (which, I believe, is simply measuring groundouts and flyouts), Felix’s mark stands at 5.0 to 1. Due to the differing methodologies by the three sites, finding uniformity is nearly impossible. But, regardless, they’re all generally measuring the same thing, and by any of the three measures, Felix’s G/F rate so far has been remarkable.
I knew he was a dominant groundball guy in the minors as well, so this performance wasn’t a huge surprise. The question that came to me, however, is how well could we accurately determine what his “true” groundball/flyball ratio might be going forward from such a small sample size. Since we know that pitchers have strong consistent abilities to influence G/F rates, we’re fairly certain that Felix’s groundball dominance is a repeatable skill. But, we don’t know if the insane groundball inducing power he’s held over hitters through two starts will continue at this level. It’s almost certain that Felix is going to be one of the more dominant groundball pitchers in the game, but is he going to be a groundballer of Derek Lowe proportion or Brandon Webb proportion? Or will he just create his own new level of groundballing not yet seen, which is what he has done through two starts?
There’s no perfect way to answer this yet, and the small sample size police are going to run over this thread, I’m sure, but my theory is that dominant groundball tendancies in a small sample are indeed evidence of a trend that we can expect going forward. For instance, I don’t expect to ever see Julio Mateo induce 12 groundouts and 0 flyouts in an outing. That kind of performance is just beyond his skillset and the way he pitches. So, what I decided to do was to look through the gamelogs of some major league pitchers and attempt to determine the variance of their G/F ratio in a particular game versus their established G/F rate for the season. If we see that there is little variance from game to game, we can assume that this is a repeatable skill and Felix’s absurd groundballing ways may indeed continue to the point that he becomes the most groundball friendly starter in major league baseball.
On to the evidence.
Momentum Is Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher
From last nights game thread, and funny enough to go up on the main page:
dw said:
August 10th, 2005 at 7:15 pmLast night was like going to dinner at a posh steakhouse, running into Bill Gates, and having him buy you dinner and a bottle of $1000 Bordeaux.
Tonight is like going to dinner at a fast food place, running into your ex, and having her throw a $1.29 cup of Coke in your face.
Indeed.
Perspective.
Jamie Moyer – 22 starts, 134.1 innings, 20.0 VORP
Ryan Franklin – 20 starts, 132.2 innings, 16.9 VORP
Felix Hernandez – 2 starts, 13.0 innings, 6.5 VORP
Jeff Harris – 1 start, 10.2 innings, 4.0 VORP
Gil Meche – 23 starts, 128.1 innings, 0.1 VORP
Joel Pineiro – 20 starts, 123.2 innings, 0.0 VORP
Aaron Sele – 21 starts, 116 innings, 0.0 VORP
Sample size, schmample size. In just two starts, Felix is now the M’s third best starting pitcher on the year.
Felix’s home debut in the press and web
Jon Paul Morosi, in the PI, with his recap.
It should tell you a little something about the general state of affairs at Safeco that the most anticipated baseball event all season begat scores of empty seats in the right and left field corners.
There’s also a USSM mention in there, which is cool.
Corey Brock, in the News-Tribune, has “King for a day”
It’s not enough that 19-year-old Seattle rookie pitcher Felix Hernandez can throw his fastball 98 mph, although that alone makes him pretty special.
It’s everything else that Hernandez did Tuesday – from the wicked change-ups he threw to his off-the-table curveball to his refined poise at such a young age – that makes him unique.
Finnigan, in the Seattle Times: “Hernandez pitches gem in home debut” is paired with Larry Stone, reporting from the visiting clubhouse.
“Poise? I don’t think we’re talking about poise here,” Gardenhire said. “I think we’re talking about a 97 mile an hour fastball with a curveball from hell. I think you can overlook the poise part. Let’s just say great stuff.”
My pal (and yours, if you’ve met him) Jonah Keri wrote up yesterday’s game as his Game of the Week column on Baseball Prospectus. And it’s free! Free! So check that out.
Seth Stohs has a detailed breakdown of what Hernandez threw and when (no permalink? Man, that link’s going to age badly)
And for your picture needs, Adriot linked cool game pics in comments yesterday. (Please note that’s not USSM-space… don’t sweat the bandwith). I’m sure that having been so generous with his efforts, these pics will now be copied all across the internet to be used as desktops, and the basis for fan web pages. Sorry, dude.
Game recap, 8/9
Felix is our king.
That’s the only thing I’ve got on my scorecard under “scorer’s notes”. I’m not sure that there’s much else to be said.
Hernandez looked amazing, flat dominating. He came out throwing fastballs, changed up, then went back later, and all game the Twins batters would walk back to the dugout with expressions that read “I can’t believe I’m going to have to face this guy for the next five seasons. Maybe I should switch leagues.” His stuff is flat wicked, and there’s something about seeing it in person, too, that’s electric — a batter whiffs on something and I’d think “What the heck was that?” (and Jonah, out loud, would say “What the heck was that?”)
The crowd was the most excited I’ve been to a game with in a year, easily — and part of it goes beyond the hype. Because, honestly, a fair portion of the crowd doesn’t know who the kids are (fan to Snelling as he chased down one of the few well-hit balls: “Go get it, Raul!”). It was because after being beat down for two years, watching start after start after start of pitch-to-contact garbage outings, where a highlight would be a quality home Moyer start, we saw something entirely different. And it made us think of Randy Johnson and other pitchers from years back who could dominate a game like this, keeping the ball in the infield, striking hitters out, seeming to leave them no option but to go down in order.
We could stand up and cheer with two strikes, because two strikes didn’t mean an almost certain ball in play — it could be a crazy breaking pitch or some wicked inside heat for the strikeout. It was worth paying attention and becoming emotionally invested in the game and in the pitcher, because unlike Meche, or Pineiro, or Franklin, if Hernandez can stay healthy he’ll be leading the next Mariner charge for a pennant. It was more than a pleasant evening at the ballpark.
I haven’t been as involved and happy to be at a game in years, and I get too worked up about four hour 8-9 dirges. This was something else, and I’m glad I was there.
Ryan Franklin throws simulated game
FRANKLIN THROWS: Ryan Franklin threw 84 pitches to a lineup of big-league hitters, iced his arm, and spoke with the media on Monday.
A typical start, right? No. The stadium was empty, and the batting order consisted of his teammates: Gonzalez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Dave Hansen, Mike Morse, and Jeremy Reed.
As Franklin’s 10-day suspension under Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program passed its midpoint, he threw a final simulated game before being activated.
[…]
Franklin allowed only two hits during his outing — Hansen had both — and seemed encouraged. He also began developing a rapport with new acquisition Yorvit Torrealba, who caught the session.
Wait, wait, wait. With no fielders behind him, Ryan Franklin only allowed two hits to Dave Hansen? How is that possible? When I initially read that it was an 84-pitch simulated game, my reaction was “He probably only went five simulated innings, and gave up six simulated runs on eight simulated hits, two of them home runs, including a 485-foot simulated blast to center field, striking out two and walking one.”
But really? Two hits?
Tonight’s game
Not official USSM but USSM-related pre-game warmup at the King Street Bar & Oven. Come by, chill, have a beverage. Gawk at the boundless energy and contagious optimism of Jonah while you get Leonard Cohen-style depressed by being around my antisocial self.
Fun facts for Tuesday
Random small sample-sizey goodness on Doyle heading into tonight’s game (with pre-game USSM-related food and beverages), because here at USSM labs, we’re filled with “irrational love for Snelling and irrational hatred for Bloomquist” or so we’re told.
Chris Snelling, by rate stats, all M’s:
7th in batting average
1st in on-base percentage
3rd in slugging percentage
Chris Snelling, by counting stats, all M’s:
20th in at-bats (21)
Tied for 17th in hits (6, with Dobbs)
Tied for 16th in doubles (2, with Betancourt)
Tied for 9th in home runs (1, with Borders-Hansen-Rivera-Spiezio)
Tied for 15th in total bases (11, with Betancourt, Hansen)
11th in walks (5)
1 RBI