King Felix pre-game tomorrow
Anyone who wants to go, Jonah Keri (of Baseball Prospectus) and I (of this site and not BP) will be chilling pre-game tomorrow if you fine USSM readers want to hang out.
Updated Future Forty
A few days later than I had hoped for, but we have a new Future Forty. A ton of changes on this one, for obvious reasons, as the M’s acquired four new players, moved several around, and I’ve adjusted the risk and reward ratings for players who have changed my mind recently. Among the activity:
As always, use this thread as a catch-all for any minor league questions you may have. I’ll try to answer as many as humanly possible. If I miss something, feel free to email it to us.
Game 110, Mariners at White Sox
Jeff Harris makes his first major league start against Jon Garland. Garland, by the way, was a first round pick by the Cubs and then traded away a year later for Matt Karchner. Karchner pitched a grand total of 32 innings with the Cubs over two years, and hasn’t pitched in the majors since. Jon Garland has 61 wins and is 25-years-old. That’s a pretty nice trade, right there.
Mariner offensive production by position
These are raw (not park-adjusted) stats for Mariner production at each position.
Catcher
M’s: .198/.224/.304
AL: .252/.309/.384
Olivo kills this category, but Borders didn’t help. That Wiki Gonzalez is driving this position’s stats back up to normalacy shows how badly this position’s been hurt this year.
First base
M’s: .271/.366/.542
AL: .271/.342/.454
Go Sexson.
Second base
M’s: .236/.289/.361
AL: .268/.325/.397
Boone and Lopez both turned this into an offensive sinkhole. If you put the 2005 Bloomquist in there full time, you’d be giving up 30 pts of slugging for 30 pts of on-base percentage (by pumping up the average).
Shortstop
M’s: .268/.327/.360
AL: .278/.333/.404
Wilson Valdez drives this down, Morse’s red-hot start brings it back up. We don’t know what we’d get out of Betancourt, but offense is only half the game (as the Jeff Huson fan club would remind you).
Third base
M’s: .251/.296/.401
AL: .268/.333/.427
Beltre, you’re killing me. You hit for that month, I don’t want to believe that’s a fluke, but jeeeeeeeeeez.
Left field
M’s: .267/.335/.392
AL: .278/.333/.435
This is what happens when you knock a chunk of power out of a guy without much power. Not a good season for Randy. Scary thought for the day: if you think Snelling’s going to be a 35 double, 10-15 home run guy who hits for a high average and takes his walks, well.. that’s Winn’s good years here, 2002-2003.
Center field
M’s: .257/.318/.351
AL: .273/.326/.412
I figured that as a high-contact guy with some power, Reed would have downs but at some point this year would rip off a 20-game tear where he hit .400/.450/.700. I’m still hoping. Bloomquist’s started 12 games in center so far.
Right field
M’s: .301/.346/.429
AL: .275/.338/.459
To compete offensively with his peers at the position, Ichiro needs to hit for a lot more average than he’s doing now. Hitting .320, you can make the argument he’s above-average overall, but he’s got to hit .330+ to be a really good contributor. Even the Ichiro-having-a-down-year stats would look good for a center fielder, though… forget I said anything.
USSM FAQ
(Jeff, with extensive other-author contributions)
The long awaited, sometimes anticipated, USSM FAQ: for use in easy reference to the arguments that seem to come up every day.
This weekend in M’s land
Three game series in Chicago.
Good things:
- Return of Doyle.
Bad things:
- The White Sox have been way, way better than the M’s over this season. This could be a drubbing.
- Pineiro pitches today.
- While in Chicago, young King Felix gets to hang around with Freddy Garcia, which should make M’s fans wince
- Sunday’s pitcher could be anyone, Jeff Harris possibly, but also this new kid they just now signed from Mexico, Roano Torres Franklero, a 6’3″ righthander, 32 years old, no background information available but a flyball guy, supposedly pitches to contact, can be a little homer-prone. Supposedly has a big, fake-looking moustache and signed a two-week contract.
- Every day brings us closer to the return of the young man from Spiro. I thought he’d get tossed overboard with his drug suspension, but with Campillo’s injury they’ll keep him. They don’t have a choice — there’s no one left in the organization they can pull up without bad things following. I still think they’ll non-tender him at season’s end.
Week #19 in Review
For crying out loud. I step out about 10 days for vacation, I come back and half the team has been fired, Ryan Franklin has been juiced, and King Felix makes his major league debut. And to think, a week ago, I was sitting in Larry Lucchino’s seats in Fenway. But that’s another story. I tried catching up on all my USS Mariner reading in one sitting, and I’m still crazy confused as to who’s on the team and who’s not. Yuniesky Betancourt, Yorvit Torrealba — these are some of the coolest Mariner names since Puchy Delgado.
Almost makes one forget that the Mariners actually played games this past week.
Vital Signs
Wins: 46. Losses: 61. Games out of first place: 15.5.
In the three weeks since we last visited this exercise, the M’s have dropped just 2 more games in the standings. But hey, check it: according to Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds, the M’s still have a 0.0029% chance of making the playoffs. So there’s still a chance… right? The Rangers in third place are now 8 games out of reach. According to third-order wins, the Mariners are now 3 games “unlucky,” with only Tampa Bay and Kansas City with worse numbers.
Runs Scored: 472 (13th in the American League). Batting average: .259 (last). On-base percentage: .317 (last). Slugging percentage: .396 (last). Home runs: 90 (13th). Bases on balls: 292 (10th). EqA: .251 (10th, that pitcher’s park helps).
Runs allowed: 498 (8th). Staff ERA: 4.49 (8th). DIPS ERA: 4.79 (13th). Strikeouts: 566 (last). Bases on balls: 354 (11th). Home runs allowed: 118 (12th). Starters ERA: 5.14 (12th). Relievers ERA: 3.15 (3rd). Defensive efficiency: 70.3% (4th, tied with Toronto and Detroit).
The M’s picked up after the All-Star break just about the same place. They’ve batted .256/.309/.416 since the break and been out-scored 110-95 en route to a 7-13 record. They have outslugged their opponents thanks to Richie Sexson who has 12 extra-base hits and 11 walks in just 70 at bats since the break.
Over the past week, the Mariners went 2-4 against the Tigers and Indians. They scored 7 runs in a game twice, yet managed to lose both games. They hit .241/.299/.389 against pitching staffs that rank 7th and 5th in the league in run prevention. They were outscored 35-27. While the Mariners slugged more home runs, 8-7, they were simply beat to the punch just getting runners to first base as the opposition collected more hits 63-49 and drew more walks 18-15.
Heroes
Raul Ibanez went 9-for-23 (.391/.462/.565) with a double, a home run and 3 walks. Sunday afternoon against the Indians, Ibanez reached base 4 times and scored 3 runs. Honorable mention goes Adrian Beltre for leading the team with 4 extra-base hits. Unfortunately, Beltre was on base only 6 times all week.
Six games, six different starters for the Mariners. So how can we not celebrate the debut of Felix Hernandez in this space? The 19-year-old phenom made his debut yesterday against the Tigers lasting 5 innings, striking out 4, while allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits and 2 walks. No, we cannot get enough of this guy.
Not-so-much Heroes
Is there a curse behind home plate? Weak-i Gonzalez takes over the starting job behind the dish and goes 3-for-16 (.188/.278/.250). He hit a double and walked twice, scoring in 4 of the 5 times he was on base. Richie Sexson had a similarly bad week, going 3-for-19 (.158/.320/.211). He at least led the team with 5 walks.
So we mention the six different starters… the pathetic thing is only 3 of them (Hernandez, the now-suspended Ryan Franklin and Joel Pineiro) completed the fifth inning. And only Franklin entered the sixth. Aaron Sele made a most inglorious exit to the sequel of his Seattle career. Friday against Cleveland he was plastered for 9 runs on 12 hits and a pair of long-balls in just 4 innings. Adios, chuchacho.
Coming to a stadium near you
Beginning this evening the Mariners take on the Stacker of Wheat and Player with Railroads, their second journey to the Windy City to see the screaming White Sox this season. The M’s dropped two out of three to the Palehose back in April. The one victory came against Freddy Garcia. While the White Sox boast the best record in baseball, their offense would be lucky to intimidate a pack of timid kittens. Their EqA is a tick below the Mariners. It’s their pitching and defense to be concerned about. The M’s will face Freddy Garcia, Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland, who rank 22nd, 11th, and 15th in all of baseball in VORP.
Tuesday begins a three-game set against the Twins, another team with an offense on par with the Mariners. For those of you disappointed that Bret Boone will not be making his homecoming, hold back your tears. Tuesday King Felix makes his Safeco Field debut. If you missed the comment left below the last post, tickets are not only available, but by an act of Providence, coincidentally are available at discount prices. Password: RAUL.
You have no excuse to not be there.
Portrait of the pitcher as a young man
“Once upon a time and a very good time it was a tiger coming down the road and this tiger met a nicens little boy named King Felix…”
5.0 – 3 – 2 – 1 – 2 – 4 – 0
Remember that line. Make it a locker combination, password or something. It’s momentous stuff.
81 pitches. 49 strikes (that’s 60%). And that’s with a Wendelstedt strike zone shrunk to the size of the womp rats I bull’s-eye here in Kentucky. I mean, for crying out loud, when I was 19 I was sleeping through my sophomore statistics class.
Using the USS Mariner super-computer I’ve found that the first mention of Felix Hernandez on this website came on June 23, 2003 in this minor league recap back when King Felix pitched in my former stomping grounds of Everett.
Seems it was just yesterday that Dave was telling me,
“Get used to hearing his name folks, because the M’s absolutely love this kid. He’s been referred to as the best arm they’ve ever signed internationally. They’re going to baby him in Everett this year, but he’s got a world of potential.”
That was over two years ago.
And yes, Dave’s House o’ Tarot will be open all week.
Game 107, The King Is Here
As everyone knows by now, King Felix makes his major league debut today, becoming the first teenage pitcher to start a major league game since Todd Van Poppel in 1991. That’s a bit of a chilling sentence, but the fact is that Felix Hernandez is the best pitcher in the organization right now. His command is still a problem, but his stuff is so good that it won’t stop him from being effective.
The M’s have been hard to watch for 24 months. We’ve gotten bad news on top of bad news this week, as the club hoped to turn the focus to the future but instead has had to deal with a steroid suspension and yet another arm injury. But Felix is our glimmer of hope. He’s something to genuinely get excited about, a reason to watch the games, incentive to go to the ballpark.
From the all-star break of 2003 to the present, the Mariners have been a depressing cloud of disappointment. Today brings the hope of something better.
All Hail the King. Long Live the King.
Campillo to DL, Nageotte up
Campillo’s currently on the 15-day DL with an “elbow strain”, word is that he’ll need ligament replacement surgery. As if the rotation wasn’t in enough trouble already. Well, I hope everyone enjoyed seeing that inning of work from the junkballer, because that’s all we get until 2007, probably.