Statistical Breakdown of the King
Lately, there has been an outbreak of “rationalism” in regards to our talk of Felix Hernandez. The responses go something like “sure, he’s good, but it was the Tigers, Twins, and Royals, all of the games in extremely pitcher friendly parks”, which is all true. But there is a thin line between rationalism and skepticism, and at this point, there’s no reason to be skeptical of King Felix. Below are his numbers through his 3 starts and where they would rank in the American League if he qualified for the ERA title:
ERA: 0.86 (1st)
Fielding Independant ERA: 1.66 (1st)
Line Drive Percentage: 9.6 % (1st)
G/F rate: 4.11 (1st)
Infield Fly Rate: 22 % (1st)
K/G: 10.6 (1st)
BB/G: 1.5 (5th)
HR/G: 0.0 (1st)
K/BB: 7.00 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.67 (1st)
Opponents BA: .153 (1st)
Opponents OBP: .191 (1st)
Opponnents SLG: .153 (1st)
The average hitter Felix has faced so far has a season line of .269/.327/.406. Against Felix, they are hitting .153/.191/.153. He has cut the opponents hitters OPS by 53 percent over what they are against the rest of the league. For comparison, Roger Clemens average opponent has a season line of .256/.325/.405, and are hitting .188/.245/.255. Clemens has cut opponents OPS lines by 32 percent. Even adjusting for opponents, Felix has been dominant on a level that no other pitcher in baseball, even Roger Clemens, has matched.
Other random ridiculous Felix notes:
He has yet to allow an extra base hit. I have yet to see a ball hit that I even think had a chance to go for more than a single.
He’s thrown 8 innings in less than 100 pitches in back-to-back starts.
Through the first five innings of each start, his groundball/flyball mark stands at 27 to 3.
Yes, its 3 starts. It is only 21 innings. It’s a small sample size. He can’t pitch like this all year. Let’s see what he does on the road against a good offense. Yada yada yada.
For three starts, Felix has been the best pitcher in baseball. His next start comes Saturday night in Minnesota. Make a date to watch brilliance in action once again.
Pregame wake and festivities
If you want to meet up with fellow USSMers, check out today’s unofficial USSM pre-game. We’re going to meet up tonight about 5:30ish, maybe a little earlier at the King Street Bar and Oven.
You get two USSM authors and a BP guy:
- I’ll be there, trying to compose drinking songs about how depressed I am about Doyle.
- Jeff will be there, helping with rhymes and meter. He’s the handsome one.
- Jonah will be there, smiling, happy, and generally sociable, since it’s unlikely he’ll have another really bad day. Unless Jeff and I drag him into our Doyle-related despair.
Jonah’s trying to negotiate for a reserved table, so RSVPs if you’re going or will attempt to go would be helpful.
Foppert Makes Debut
Though most of the story is devoted to the return of Bucky Jacobsen, the TNT notes that last night marked Jesse Foppert’s first start for the organization. He was on a strict pitch count, hence threw just one inning.
Pitching prospect Jesse Foppert, coming off an injury, started for Tacoma but was on a limit of 25 pitches or one inning. Foppert threw 16 pitches – nine strikes – and allowed one hit, a line-drive single, before turning the game over to right-hander Rich Dorman (4-4).
Despite my good wishes for Mr. Foppert‘s health, we will refrain from referring to him as “William.” It seems that wasn’t working anyway.
Mass suicide scheduled for Wednesday
I’ll be leading the Cult of Doyle into the Puget Sound at noon, where we’ll all drown, cold and miserable. The Church of Bloomquist the Ignitor is invited to attend and applaud or boo as they feel fit, after which they will go see the M’s play the Royals at 1:35.
Light snacks and punch will be served.
Update: it has been brought to my attention that killing myself, while possibly a welcome relief from despair, would prevent me from heading to Australia, and Doyle would have wanted me to go.
Roster construction and the Mariner bench
We’ve ranted at times about the 13-man pitching staff, but with Doyle down, this is worth talking about again. This team’s 25-man is thin and doesn’t offer Hargrove a lot to work with. Not that he might work with it anyway, as he’s a set-lineup kinda manager, but there’s almost no flexibility here. Really:
SP: RHP Franklin, RHP Hernandez, RHP Meche, LHP Moyer, RHP Pineiro.
Bunch of guys, several of which are likely to get shelled or leave a game early (which helps, unfortunately, to justify a 7+man bullpen).
RP: RHP Harris, RHP Hasegawa, RHP Mateo, RHP Nelson, RHP Putz, LHP Sherrill, LHP Thornton
As a unit, they’ve done well, though they all seem to have their flaws. Nelson still can’t get lefties out, for instance, and has looked erratic even against righties. Thornton’s walked too many guys and is home-run prone. Putz is home-run prone too. Still, there are a bunch of guys who can handle multiple innings effectively. Even with the starting rotation they could get away with fewer relievers.
Closer: LHP Guardado
Yup.
Outfielders: LF-L Ibanez, CF-L Reed, RF-L Suzuki.
Backup? Um… well, you’d think you would want a right-handed 4th OF who can sub defensively for Ibanez in the late innings, give any of these guys a day off without killing the team, maybe play center if you want to sit Reed versus lefty starters. Jamal Strong’s right-handed, hitting .293/.371/.393 with 25 steals in Tacoma. He doesn’t help with power at all, but a high average guy who can get on base and swipe on — stick him in the #2 slot, heck. Or bat him ninth and let him get on and terrorize the bases ahead of Ichiro, stay out of double plays.
Here’s the other problem here — if Ibanez is in the field, and Bloomquist is at second, your nominal backup outfielder’s already in the game. Move him to left to replace Ibanez and then you have to stick someone at second, which creates its own problem.
And anyway, I’d argue that while part of Bloomquist’s value in being on the roster is that he could play the outfield, that’s not really where you’re getting your best Bloomquist value. Having a true outfielder out there, even if it’s another guy without pop like Strong, has value.
Choo, btw, .252/.358/374. Ugh.
With a roster crunch, though, who do you move to get a Strong up here?
Infielders: 1B-R Sexson, 3B-R Beltre, with two of SS-R Betancourt, SS-R Morse, UT-R Bloomquist.
If Bloomquist plays second every day, one of Betancourt/Morse sits. Since Morse has spent the last year becoming an adequate defensive shortstop, moving him seems silly. Since Betancourt is a natural crazy ball-vacuuming short, moving him seems silly.
Morse (and this was in one of the papers recently) may end up the righthanded 4th OF… but that’s not going to happen tomorrow. Right now, any middle infield lineup leaves a shortstop on the bench who could be starting. Not having Lopez or a straight 2B means Bloomquist can’t be the super-sub where he earns his keep by giving random dudes days off at the manager’s discretion.
Catchers: C-R Gonzalez, C-R Torrealba
Bench: 1B/3B/but really PH-L Hansen, 1B/3B-B Spiezio
Ugh. There could be utility to having Hansen in the right roster, but a left-handed pinch-hitter who isn’t hitting when called off the bench and can’t carry a glove on a team that desperately needs a DH or an extra outfielder to move Ibanez back into DHing doesn’t make sense. Spiezio offers a little more glove at the same positions, but those are positions played by Sexson and Beltre, neither of who need replacement defensively. And while you’d like to think that Spiezio can’t hit ~.050 forever, what’s the upside here — he DHs a lot and goes on a hot streak where he hits .250/.300/.350?
Two guys who are on the roster, essentially, to pinch-hit for the catchers, when both of them make you want to give up the DH and let the pitchers swing away. At the same time, they’re running without a true second baseman, seemingly tying Red Hot Bloomquist down to the position, without a good 4th OFer, or a decent DH.
The good news is we’re only two weeks and change away from roster expansion, when the team can call up everyone from Tacoma for Hargrove to not use.
“Snelling Likely Done for Season”
PI’s got the story up. We won’t really know until they crack it open and look.
Doyle to the DL
15-day, “sprained left knee” is the listed reason.
Also, Ryan Franklin’s back. Contain your enthusiasm, please.
Today’s Mariner news
(as I sit around hoping someone’ll tell me Snelling’s okay)
So Reese isn’t even hanging out with the team anymore and isn’t expected to put on a M’s uniform again, ever. Bucky’s rehabbing and hitting.
Corey Brock examines the M’s pitching injuries in the News-Tribune.
John Hickey on Spiezio and — well, let him tell it:
There really isn’t a delicate way to phrase it, so let’s just blurt out the question:
Why is Scott Spiezio still a Mariner?
M’s tickets no longer scorching hot by Morosi in the PI is interesting but…
However, attendance has sagged so far from its summit in the not-so-distant past that it may spoil the team’s chance to turn a profit this season.
Come onnnnnnn. Morosi, though, examines this later in the same piece, and it becomes clearer that while that early sentence states that as fact, it’s all in the budgeting.
Without counting on similar boosters this season, the club established its 2005 budget with a projected attendance of 2.5 million. Aylward said the pace is now “at least” 2.6 million, which has left the organization “encouraged at the possibility of turning a profit.”
There’s a reason to attend — encourage the team about their chances of being profitable! Even though there’s really no question about their profitability.
All of that omits the real issue of how much money the team’s really hauling in, but — and I mean no offense to Morosi — I’ve long given up hope of having a local paper really call the team out on their accounting and profit/loss claims. The best I hope for is that (as Morosi does here) they make it clear that the numbers are all created and supplied by the team.
It also doesn’t raise the question of “attendance” versus “butts in seats” which aren’t the same, but it does look at other secondary indicators of popularity, like TV ratings, and examines the possibility of a drop-off.
Blyleven on Felix
Nice interview at Baseball Analysts with someone who started out as young and had a great career.
Week #20 in Review
King Felix makes his Safeco Field debut, and oh yeah, the Mariners played 5 other games this week…
Vital Signs
Wins: 49. Losses: 64. Games out of first place: 16.5.
The Mariners drop another game in the standings. And they are staring up at the Athletics who now lead the American League West. And though they have still yet to be officially eliminated from the playoff picture (August still isn’t half way over), according to Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds, the M’s now have a 0.00128% chance of making the playoffs. It’s now a 6.5-game chasm between the Mariners and the Rangers in third place. They are 3.5 games below their projected wins according to third-order wins.
Runs Scored: 488 (13th in the American League, tied for last with Kansas City). Batting average: .257 (last). On-base percentage: .315 (last). Slugging percentage: .393 (last). Home runs: 93 (13th, thank you Kansas City). Bases on balls: 311 (11th). EqA: .248 (last).
Runs allowed: 518 (7th). Staff ERA: 4.38 (8th). DIPS ERA: 4.74 (13th). Strikeouts: 604 (last). Bases on balls: 369 (11th). Home runs allowed: 123 (10th). Starters ERA: 5.01 (11th). Relievers ERA: 3.10 (3rd). Defensive efficiency: 70.5% (4th).
Mariners won their first series in two weeks, and they were two strikes away from their first sweep since the close of the first half. They went 3-3 on the week, despite being out-scored 20-16. They were out-slugged in home runs 5-3, but drew more walks than the White Sox and Twins 17-15. It’s a sad thing to hold your oppoenents to a .601 OPS and still get out-scored.
Heroes
Richie Sexson went 5-for-23 (.217/.280/.609). Sure, 5 hits in a week is nothing to get too excited about, but when all five go for extra bases, that’s a productive week. Proving that getting to first base just isn’t enough, Sexson slugged 3 doubles and a pair of home runs. But thanks to Ichiro!, Willie Bloomquist and Raul Ibanez (who were getting on base ahead of Richie at a clip of .357, .308 and .240, respectively for the week), those 5 XBH produced only 4 RBI for Sexson. And props go out to Doyle for his first major league longball since May 29, 2002. Dude hits home runs as often as George Lucas makes Star Wars prequels. Only Doyle home runs are better. And hopefully will happen more often now.
Felix Hernandez can own this space here for the pitching hero of the week. 8.0 – 5- 0 – 0 – 0 – 6 – 0. There’s his line for his second major league start. Making it against the Twins doesn’t hurt just one bit. Just imagine if Felix could pitch against his own Mariner lineup? On second thought, don’t. On third thought, buy your tickets for Monday’s game now. Against the limp Kansas City lineup, King Felix will look like a hot knife through butter.
Not-so-much Heroes
Cursed catchers! Yorvit Torrealba goes 1-for-10 (.100/.100/.100). But then Raul Ibanez (.174/.240/.261), Adrian Beltre (.182/.280/.227) and Yuniesky Betancourt (.167/.211/.278) each provided their own respective misery at the plate.
The suckerpunch of Wednesday’s game has been mentioned in this space earlier. And while Jeff Nelson got tagged for the loss in the game (he did walk Lew Ford to start the inning, losing a 10-pitch battle, and then plunked Shannon Stewart, handing the Twins the winning run in scoring position), it was Shigetoshi Hasegawa who allowed three runners on base and watched four cross home plate before he even recorded an out. His line for the week: 0.2 – 3 – 2 – 0 – 0 – 0.
Coming to a stadium near you
This weekend the Mariners host the Los Angeles Angels. While they are just a game back of the A’s for the division lead, and own the wild card by 2.5 games, they’ve gone 13-13 since the All-Star break. They come from Oakland, where in any normal universe, they would have swept the A’s, but the A’s, of course being in their altered state of A’s conciousness, stole the last two games in the 7th inning from the Angels. LA stands at 9th in the league in scoring and 2nd in the league in run prevention. Pitching matchups will be Moyer/Washburn, Harris/Colon and Meche/Lackey.
On Monday, the Royals come to town. The Royals come to town! The Royals, who are buried 36 games out of first place! Never mind that that Royals score runs just as often (or not so often) as the Mariners and allow them at a rate topped only by Tampa Bay. Never mind that they’ve lost 13 straight now. Go buy your tickets for Monday’s game right now. I’m serious. Dead serious. Because I have three words for you: Felix versus Greinke. Which leads to the challenge question of the week: When was the last time two such heralded prospects playing for such irrelevant teams squared off against one another?
Felix versus Greinke.
You have no excuse to not be there.