Paging Mr. Cashman
With just a week left to go until the trade deadline — and the M’s out of the race, regardless of what a certain local writer thinks — I hope Bill Bavasi has Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman on speeddial. The Yankees have a few glaring holes right now, and the M’s have the spare parts to fill those holes.
First up, they need a centerfielder. Bernie Williams is old and can’t handle the position on a regular basis (some would say he can’t handle it at all). Randy Winn, anyone? I know, he’s not the world’s greatest out there. But he improved as last season went on, and he’s certainly better than Williams. Here’s the other thing with Williams — not only has his range declined, there’s also a reliability issue. He’s been dropping balls he should be catching, and say what you will about Winn’s defense, but he doesn’t drop balls he should catch. No, he doesn’t have the strongest throwing arm. Know what? Williams hasn’t been able to throw for two years. However you slice it, Winn would be a big upgrade for the Yankees. He’d also add some speed to a lineup that doesn’t have much.
Next up, middle relief. Take a gander at some of the pitchers the Yankees have trotted out in relief this season: Colter Bean, Felix Rodriguez, Buddy Groom, Scott Proctor, Steve Karsay (since released), Paul Quantrill (since dumped on San Diego), Mike Stanton (since relased), Jason Anderson, and Wayne Franklin (formerly released by the Brewers). Yeah, there are some recognizable names on that list, but Rodriguez, Quantrill, and Stanton are light years from the pitchers they once were (and they’ve already gotten rid of the latter two). The Yankees have, essentially, three effective relief pitchers: Mariano Rivera, Tom Gordon, and Tanyon Sturtze. You’ll notice none of those three are left-handed.
Not only do they need a lefty — hello, Eddie Guardado! good to see you, Ron Villone! — they need a guy for the 7th, someone to bridge the gap between the starter and the 8th-9th combo of Gordon and Rivera. Guardado, Villone, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Jeff Nelson for the third time… the M’s have arms to burn, folks, and the Yankees need ’em.
Phone call, fax, certified letter, carrier pigeon… doesn’t matter. Just get in touch with Brian Cashman, Bill.
The Mariners are still in this, or not
Finnigan today, in the Times, has a shocking lead:
With six wins in eight games, featuring the impressive sweep in Anaheim, Mariners officials watched the team leave on this trip with hopes of scrambling back into the wild-card race.
(and later)
“I think it would be fair to wait to the end of this trip to make a judgment,” said Pelekoudas.
Reading this article totally ignorant of the team’s fortunes, you might wonder: are they four, five, even six games out? No folks, they are not. They are eleven games back in the wild card race, behind not one, or two, or three, but eight teams, some far, far better than the Mariners (Minnesota, or New York. Heck, Cleveland).
Over at the PI, though, John Hickey is the voice of reason, starting his article in the same way (M’s good then got whupped), but then brings it to the logical conclusion: they’re going to be sellers.
It’s unclear just how much selling the Mariners will do — Randy Winn? Ron Villone? Jamie Moyer? Eddie Guardado? — but it’s overwhelmingly obvious by now that the Mariners won’t be buying.
Seattle simply doesn’t have the need. The club would need to pass eight teams down the stretch to win the wild card, and that’s not happening. The Mariners are 15 games out of first place in the American League West and 11 games behind wild card-leading Minnesota.
Whoop, I just said that. Then there’s this quote from the tradable but still not likely to be traded Guardado:
“This is what we do,” closer Eddie Guardado said. “We’ll play four games great, then we’ll play six or seven like this. That’s no way to play. You’re not going to get anywhere doing this.”
No, it’s not, is it?
Finnigan’s article today is pretty straight: the M’s haven’t given up on the impossible dream. Quotes are included, and Finnigan doesn’t interject much opinion there. Hickey’s article, by contrast, is more analysis with some reporting, and the analysis runs “realistically, come on… I mean come on.”
I’m not sure if the reluctance to toss the first shovelful of dirt on this season’s coffin is a negotiating ploy, false, desperate hope, or what, but the grave was dug a long time ago, the undertaker prepared the season, the funeral’s been held, heck, we’ve even done our mourning. Let’s move on.
Random Wednesday news
Snelling’s still with the team. The team decided to keep Hansen on the DL and Snelling traveled to Toronto with the team, though MLB.com reports he flew (!) to Tacoma, hung around for a second, and then had to fly to Phoenix to pick up his passport before joining the team for the series there, though… it’s all really strange and fishy.
The team’s also said that with the turf in Toronto, they may want to get extra rest for one or more of their regular outfielders, which… well, I’m not sure if you want to play Doyle on turf anyway. And as the P-I points out, with a rest day on Monday, that’s not a good reason to keep him on the roster.
Of particular interest, Hansen pretty much said he wasn’t hurt in the Times: “I’m ready and I want to help. They said this helps the team, and that’s what I’m all about.”
It seels a lot more likely that a deal’s in the works for Winn.
Also
- Hot Hand Bloomquist is not feeling so hot, which is why he’s not in the lineup.
- Yankees may be after Winn.
- The PI reveals that Spiezio requested a trade a couple weeks ago.
- The PI also has injury updates on Bucky (close to playing, maybe), Madritsch (working on strength/range-of-motion stuff, not throwing), and Rafael Soriano continues his amazing return from ligament replacement surgery.
- John McGrath at the News Tribune blasts the team for not tearing down, already
- Chance of the M’s reaching the postseason, using BP’s Postseason Odds-o-Tron: 0.18%. Not 18%, 0.18%.
Moyer, the home starter
Dave and I have been kicking this around on our brief, whirlwind tour of Puget Sound-area ballparks: bring Moyer back next year, but make him a home-only starter.
2005 splits–
Home 2.69 ERA, 67 IP, 3 HR, 17 BB, 37K
Away 7.09 ERA, 45 IP, 7 HR, 18 BB, 24K
It’s a relatively recent phenomenon. Three year splits aren’t that far off what you’d expect from park effects (3.77 v 4.07, 337 v 311 IP, 46 v 45 HR, 82 v 97 BB, 210 v 191 K). Even 2004’s splits aren’t that bad.
And ordinarily, I’d point to his one-year split on balls in play: at Safeco, he’s been much better off than on the road. It’s a fluke.
The argument I’m entertaining, though, is that Moyer’s using his defense, which is extremely well-suited for Safeco, and the particular average-punishing (and home run-containing) characteristics of that park to succeed here where he cannot on the road.
Proving or disproving this requires detailed splits I don’t have access to, and I’d probably want to see a lot of hit charts, play-by-play, etc. Oh, if only I were a highly paid consultant for some major league team.
But say you buy it, for a second. It then becomes worthwhile to make Moyer a weird offer. If he’s willing, make him a home starter. Take a flyer on some modest amount of money, for which you schedule him to only start in Safeco Field. Like Houston was trying to do with Clemens, you schedule his starts around homestands, let him stay home and get light, scheduled work in on the side when the team’s on the road (which, obviously, will require some doing).
If it works, you might get half a season of the good Moyer (and a particularly well-rested one, at that), soaking up around twenty starts, and on the road you could even use a long relief/spot starter guy out of the pen to make the mid-series start if it came to that. Looking at the schedule, you can start to see how this might work.
I acknowledge immediately that it’s unlikely to work — Moyer doesn’t have any career milestones that are going to make or break a Hall of Fame case next year (one of x pitchers to record 1,000 strikeouts after age 34…) and if he wanted to start, there might be a team more willing to give him a shot at a steady starting rotation spot. And it’s a roster hassle, requiring the team really work the schedule, and it requires a flexible manager.
And yet… I kept thinking about it. Moyer would get to hang around Seattle, not putting in the brutal travel the team endures, he’d get to pitch in an environment where he’s comfortable, in front of a stellar defense, if it works he looks even better in the twilight of his career (and if it fails… heck, he’s 43). The team takes a wacky gamble that helps a really shaky rotation next year if it works, and at the very least, gives Moyer a chance to bow out as a Mariner, where he’s found the greatest success.
(yes, comments are off, and please don’t respond by throwing off-topic stuff into other threads)
Who Stays, Who Goes
It sounds like the wheels of trade are beginning to churn in the front office. Chris Snelling has rejoined the team in Toronto—apparently, there’s an obscure rule about avoiding the 10 day recall window if you never actually reported to your optional assignment, so Snelling never rejoined the Rainiers—and Larry Stone had a piece in the Times this morning about who to keep and who to deal. Since we like Larry, I’m going to use his comments as a launching point for my take.
Eddie Guardado: Keep. It only makes sense to deal Guardado if they have someone ready to plug in, and the Mariners don’t. Guardado is a strength; they can lock him up for next year by picking up a $6.25 million team option. To retain an All-Star caliber closer, it’s worth it.
I disagree. Closers are fungible. We may not have someone who can post a 1.45 ERA in the future, but odds are, neither can Eddie. His peripherals don’t support his crazy low run prevention, and he’s still got the whole injured arm thing. And he’s old. Guardado is the team’s most marketable piece. They can find another closer. Use him to get a legitimate prospect.
Jamie Moyer: Trade. He has been a magnificent performer, an asset to the community, and remains, at age 42, an effective pitcher. But if the M’s can find a team desperate for starting pitching, and Moyer agrees to waive his trade-veto rights for a chance to pitch in his first World Series, it can be a win-win. Besides, there’s nothing to keep the M’s from re-signing Moyer next year.
Again, I disagree. With the no-trade, his big contract, his terrible performances away from Safeco, his age, and his lack of stuff, what are you going to get for him? If you convince him to go to, say, New York, you’re going to get a C level prospect, which the M’s already have a ton of, and you have to deal with the negative press from trading Moyer. The odds of us getting something of real tangible value are low enough that I’d hang onto him. And, as Derek and I discussed the other night, bring him back next year as a home-only starter.
Gil Meche: Keep. The word now is that the Marlins and White Sox, among others, covet Meche. As maddening as he has been, Meche still has a world-class arm and 10 victories to his credit. Plus, he’s just 26. The M’s have invested too much time and effort to watch him blossom into an ace with another team.
Good God no. Move him as soon as you can. A world class arm? Whatever. He’s got decent enough stuff that hitters pound and he can’t throw strikes consistently. His win totals make it look like he’s pitching well, but he’s not. He’s bad. If a team “covets” him, cash in now. He’s the new Brett Tomko.
Joel Pineiro: Trade. Pineiro remains as maddening, and nearly as promising, as Meche, and they’re days apart in age. The same risk exists in trading him, but at this point in Pineiro’s career, with him still struggling to come back from elbow problems, his upside no longer seems as high as Meche’s. If they can get a good package of young talent, it’s a risk worth taking  especially to get next year’s $6.3 million salary off their books.
I agree with Stone in principal, but I think there’s this weird unrealistic school of thought that Joel Pineiro has trade value. He makes $6 million next year, he’s terrible, and his velocity is just gone. Fine, you might find a team willing to take him on as a reclamation project if we pay half his salary and they don’t have to give us anything for him. And I’d probably be willing to do that. But there’s no way we’re getting a package of young talent AND they’re paying his salary. Joel Pineiro is a bad major league pitcher with a big contract.
Raul Ibanez: Keep. Ibanez is a quality left-handed bat, with the ability to play outfield, and a positive clubhouse presence. There’s no reason to deal him.
While I agree that I’d keep him, unless some team really wants him and makes me a nice offer, there are reasons to deal him. But we’ve done this post already, so I’ll move on.
Randy Winn: Trade. At some point soon, the Mariners are going to have to address the glaring lack of power in their outfield. Plus, they have Chris Snelling (not a power threat yet, but definitely a potential impact bat) having earned an extended look.
It sounds like Winn is gone sooner than later. And while we’ve been big supporters of Winn the past year, its the right move.
Ron Villone: Keep. Left-handed relievers are a valuable commodity, and Villone is one of the best around. Replacing him would be harder than you’d think.
No freaking way. Move now. Fine, he’s a fairly valuable middle reliever on a team that has a freaking ton of them. George Sherrill, anyone. Cesar Jimenez. Villone would not be hard to replace for a team that understands the fungibility of relievers. We bought low on Villone and it paid off. Time to sell high.
Shigetoshi Hasegawa: Trade. Shiggy did a wonderful job in 2003, but his career appears to be on the decline. If the M’s could get some value in return, they should do it, and groom a younger arm for the job.
Sure. If you can get a live body in return, move him. Shiggy has no value to this team and you don’t want him back next year.
Now, to the players Stone didn’t mention:
Aaron Sele and Ryan Franklin – depends on what you do with the other three starters. You can’t trade the entire rotation. There aren’t enough pitchers in Tacoma to replace more than a couple. Sele and Franklin aren’t going to bring a ton in return anyways, so they’re decent bets to stick around and eat the rest of the 2005 innings. But if you can’t move Meche, Moyer, or Pineiro, trying to redeem either one for a servicable young player would be a good idea.
Jeff Nelson – again, if you move Guardado, Villone, and Hasegawa, you probably need to hang onto him so that the bullpen isn’t a total joke to finish the year. But, if those guys stick around, deal Nelson. He has no future here and could probably bring at least a potentially marginal role player in return.
The Feed and the Long View
I’d like to take a different angle on the Feed — “what does this all mean?”
Short term, it’s a mixed bag, but there’s reason for hope. Take the Garica trade (woo-hoo!). I think they’re realistic, but some of the things I’ve continually harped on don’t seem likely to change (minor league depth to cover for things like the rotation collapse, working free-talent avenues harder, building a complete 25-man roster with useful, fitting parts, that kind of thing).
The most encouraging part was knowing that the team wants to win, but is trying to build a minor league system that can support a sustained competitive team. We talk about stars-and-scrubs, but this is how you want a team to build for a World Series title: develop stars, prospects for trade or who’ll become role-players on the cheap, and use your money to fill the holes around them. Then drink champagne and fly the pennants.
So when they talk about being buyers or sellers, that’s scary, but it’s almost irrelevant. They do want to put wins on the board, and keep people turning out at the park. They’ve got to keep people buying season tickets, and that’s where .400 seasons really hurt their bottom line. If getting to .500 this season requires them to sacrifice (say) Choo, that’s something the ownership’s going to want to go for, and I’m going to scream about.
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Doyle Back To Tacoma
The Mariners have demoted Our Aussie Prospect, thanks in large measure to Derek’s “get the guy at bats” exhortations at the feed. Dave Hansen has been activated.
By the way, thanks to everyone at the feed who, when the “S” word was uttered, shouted “Doyle!” repeatedly, something that I’m sure confused Bavasi, but brought joy and mirth to my heart.
[Registration site: poo@katu.com, password biteme. I’ll put up a non-registration link when one is available. Like this one at the bottom of the Times notebook, and this one from the P-I.]
Bavasi and the Feed
As you’ve almost certainly heard by now, Mariners GM Bill Bavasi spent two hours on Saturday before the game answering questions from the BP/USSM readers in attendance. His candor was remarkable, and he got high marks from everyone in attendance for his ability to simultaneously be insightful, strong, funny, and articulate. For almost everyone there, I’m sure it will be a highlight from a season that hasn’t had many.
As we’ve also mentioned, Bavasi was extremely honest with his opinion of a large amount of players, speaking his mind openly about their strengths, weaknesses, and the organizations take on their abilities. Those comments were made with the understanding that they wouldn’t be published on the site, and we have no problem honoring that commitment, even though we realize this may be a bit frustrating to many of you were not able to attend. We’re sorry about that, but we feel that is the right course of action in this case.
However, Bill was also very forthcoming with regards to the questions he received on baseball theory, player development philosophies, the roles of scouting and statistical analysis, and his methods of player valuation. What follows is both a recap of Bavasi’s responses to his philosophies as well as a look at how our assessment of the organization’s direction has gone since he was hired.
Junior
As one of the few people left who roots for Ken Griffey, Jr., I wanted to point out that he’s finally having the sort of year the Reds thought they’d be getting when they traded for him five years ago. I can’t believe it’s been that long.
Griffey homered and walked three times today, raising his season line to a none-too-shabby .290/.365/.546 with 20 homers, giving him 521 in his career. I still say he hits 600 before he’s done. He’s also on pace to play in 150 games for the first time since he left Seattle.
He’ll probably go on the DL tomorrow. Ken, I’m sorry.
Notes from Underground: Wrapping the Feed and Game Outing
Bill Bavasi put me in a headlock, threw one fan’s hat in the trash, and told another “I’m right, you’re wrong — get lost.” Jim Caple brought bats identical to the ones Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner and Shoeless Joe used. It was revealed that David Cameron is on steroids.
Suffice it to say, tonight’s USS Mariner/Baseball Prospectus outing was eventful. With a 3-2 win sealed in last of the ninth, it was enjoyable as well.
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