Trading Options
Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last month, you probably know that the non-waiver trade deadline is this Sunday, and that the M’s are likely going to be making some moves. The week leading up to the trade deadline is always humerous, as teams, fans, and journalists create trade rumors and perpetuate falsities for various reasons. Most of what is floating around is so poorly sourced that a junior high paper wouldn’t publish it, but hey, fans eat this stuff up. So, we get local beat writers “guessing” that Carl Pavano will be coming to the M’s in exchange for Randy Winn (he’s not), rumors of crazy three way deals sending all-stars across the country, and an awful lot of Peter Gammons on TV.
As much as I’m not a fan of the way journalists cover the deadline, and I’d rather stay out of the whole rumor mongering circle, I know you guys are going to take over every thread with trade speculation until Monday rolls around, so we might as well get this out in the open. So, here’s what I’m hearing in regards to the M’s heading up to the deadline and my WAG for where the guys on the table will be come Monday.
Almost Certain To Be Dealt
Randy Winn
The worst kept secret in sports. The Yankees want him, the Mariners don’t need him, and they’ll get something done by Sunday. There have been talks of expanding the package to get New York some arms for their depleted staff as well, but as of right now, the most likely option appears to be the teams agreeing to swap Winn for LHP Sean Henn.
Team On August 1st: New York Yankees
Likely To Be Dealt
Jeff Nelson
Nelson has several things going for him that contenders are looking for: a low salary, playoff experience, and a specialized role. Despite his command problems, he’s still death to right-handed batters. Righties are hitting just .187/.311/.213 against him in 75 at-bats. There’s enough teams (New York, Atlanta, Boston, Chicago) with marginal relievers pitching critical situations that there will be a market for Nelson. Don’t expect a significant return, however. If the M’s can get even a semi-interesting prospect for Nelly, they’ll have done well. If the M’s and Yankees do end up expanding the Winn deal, Nelson could be wearing pinstripes yet again.
Team On August 1st: New York Yankees
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Hasegawa’s ERA, 4.41, is respectable enough to interest teams that simply want a more experienced middle-man for the stretch drive without giving up anything. If he is moved, which depends more on whether the M’s find buyers for their other relievers, expect it to be for an organizational player or perhaps just a bit of cash.
Team On August 1st: Seattle Mariners
Available for the Right Price
Eddie Guardado
Despite pitching with an injured arm and throwing 88 MPH fastballs towards home plate, Guardado has been dominant this year, posting a 1.59 ERA, sparkling ratios, and 23 saves. He’s left-handed, a proven closer, relatively inexpensive, and has all the intangibles that teams want from their postseason acquisitions. The M’s know that the market for his services is substantial—he’s probably the most coveted player available, even moreso than A.J. Burnett, though his lower price tag in players and salary have a lot to do with that—and they’re leveraging that strength, letting it be known that he won’t go cheaply. Among the teams that are believed to have made inquiries are the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, Atlanta, Washington, Boston, Philadelphia, Florida, and the New York Mets and Yankees. The M’s won’t let him go for anything less than an elite prospect or several significant young players. If a deal goes down, it will be because the M’s are getting an arm back that is in the Anibal Sanchez/Philip Hughes/Rich Hill/Cole Hamels class of prospects. They won’t deal him just to deal him, but if a team offers to give up one of the brightest young arms in the game, they’ll listen.
Team On August 1st: Atlanta Braves
Ron Villone
Villone doesn’t have as much value as Guardado, but there is interest in him from most of the same clubs that are interested in Eddie. Villone most likely goes only if Guardado does not go. I’d be surprised if the team dealt both. The return for Villone won’t be an elite prospect like the M’s are demanding for Guardado, but the price for him is a significant prospect who could have an impact on the club in the future. Because of his smaller salary for 2006 and the fact that he’s been effective, the M’s are willing to keep him if they don’t get an offer that they feel is fair value. Like Nelson, he could also end up in pinstripes if the Winn-to-New York deal gets expanded.
Team On August 1st: Seattle Mariners
Gil Meche
The M’s aren’t shopping Meche, but he is available and could be moved. He’d almost certainly be part of a bigger package (with Winn to New York, with Guardado to the Cubs, or with Guardado or Villone to Atlanta) and the goal would be to obtain a near major league ready arm with less service time who could fill Meche’s spot in the rotation next year. The M’s aren’t giving up on Gil Meche, but he has frustrated them for several years, and they won’t say no if they can get a player they like.
Team On August 1st: Seattle Mariners
Potentially Available, Not Heavily Pursued
Jamie Moyer
The market for Moyer is soft, and the M’s aren’t real inclined to deal him, so I don’t expect him to be moved. However, it is, at least, theoretically possible that a contender (Philadelphia has been mentioned most often) would be interested in picking him up without giving up a significant player in return.
Team On August 1st: Seattle Mariners
Joel Pineiro
The M’s aren’t looking forward to paying Pineiro $6.25 million next year. His velocity is down, his command is down, and he’s getting rocked on a regular basis. While selling low is usually a bad idea and the team would hate to see him go elsewhere and prosper, realistically, he’s nothing like a $6 million pitcher right now. There’s no market for Pineiro, but his name has come up in connection with the expanded Winn-to-New York deal. This would essentially be a salary dump with the organization simply deciding they would rather spend $6 million on someone else in 2006.
Team On August 1st: New York Yankees
Others Who Might Be Moved For Basically Nothing
Ryan Franklin, Aaron Sele, Scott Spiezio, Dave Hansen, Pat Borders, Wiki Gonzalez
These guys have no trade value to speak of, but could go for cash or a non-prospect if the M’s are looking to save a little bit of money and to build relationships with other clubs.
You’ll probably notice that Raul Ibanez isn’t on the list. I don’t see any scenario where they trade him. There is very little market for him and the team doesn’t want to move him.
Also, keep in mind that the M’s aren’t going to trade half their pitching staff, even though nearly everyone is available. You’ll likely see, at most, two starters and two relievers dealt, so if Moyer and Meche get moved, Sele, Franklin, and Pineiro will stay. Same goes for the bullpen; if Guardado and Nelson go, Hasegawa and Villone probably stay, and vice versa.
So, that’s what I’m hearing around the league. There have been a few rumored offers that have gotten me legitimately excited, and I think the M’s could extract a couple of potential impact players if things fall their way.
Clement to Everett
As friend-of-USSM Pat Dillon pointed out in the comments, Jeff Clement is going to be in uniform for the Everett Aquasox tomorrow night. The Aquasox will be at home, hosting the Tri-City Dust Devils, so if you want to see Clement’s professional debut, take a trip up to Everett Memorial tomorrow night. If you want to see the game with other USSM’ers, feel free to use the comments to setup plans to carpool/meet up at the game. If you’ve never been to Everett, carpool is the way to go, especially at that time of day.
Moyer returning, other good stuff
In with today’s PI Mariner notebook was the news that Moyer’s looking to return next year. I’d use this to plug the “home starter” idea again, except… Moyer also says his remaining goal is to play in the World Series. Which probably means he’ll be looking for another team to help him do that.
Over at ESPN, Jim Caple has a cool article on the M’s using old-style bats in batting practice. He brought those bats to the last feed, because he’s awesome, and man, those things are huuuuuge. Remarkably, it’s the one article on ESPN.com that’s not Insider today.
Also: Soriano’s status is questionable, as his amazingly fast comeback from TJ surgery has stalled a bit (though the PI and Times seem to differ a little on what that means, and what’ll happen next, though Tacoma figures in both versions), and Madritsch may start throwing soon.
Jeff Clement signs
Mariner first round pick, USC catcher Jeff Clement, has signed with the team.
Tacoma News Tribune appears to be the first paper to the Web with a story on the signing. Corey Brock, ladies and gentlemen. Update at 12:15: now the Times has pulled something off the wires and stuck it up ahead of the 1pm press conference. Now that it’s on the wires, I’m going to stop trying to track it.
Pat Dillon (U.S.S.M. endorsed Pat Dillon, that is) mentions in the comments that Clement will be reporting to Everett and in uniform tomorrow night. Hot cha cha.
Game 98, Tigers at M’s
Ryan Franklin takes on the Tigers. Words cannot express my excitement.
Two-pronged trade rumor update
1. Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times thinks that A.J. Burnett would be good for the White Sox, but Eddie Guardado would be Tony-the-Tiger grrrrrrrrrrreat:
As for Guardado, the Mariners say he isn’t available, but it’s widely expected that Seattle will listen to offers that include prized prospects such as McCarthy. Williams worked magic with the M’s last summer, getting Garcia — for youngsters Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed and Mike Morse — well before the deadline. So expect Williams to keep M’s general manager Bill Bavasi on his speed dial.
I would say that this also has little chance of happening if we hadn’t seen Kenny Wiliams’ willingness to trade top prospects to the Mariners last year. McCarthy just turned 22, and he’s the real thing. Check out those strikeouts per nine inning numbers over his three minor league seasons.
If this offer indeed comes to pass, it’s a no-brainer in my eyes. I hope every columnist in Chicago starts pushing the “Garcia trade was magic for us, let’s do that again!” line.
2. The Sporting News’ Ken Rosenthal doesn’t think much of Randy Winn.
If the Yankees weren’t, well, the Yankees, they perhaps could acquire a center-field prospect like the Brewers’ David Krynziel or Marlins’ Eric Reed and tell him to just play defense and now [sic] worry about offense. The pressure of competing for Team Steinbrenner, however, makes it imperative that the Yankees acquire a more proven player. The Mariners’ Randy Winn wouldn’t necessarily be the answer. Here’s what a scout said about him in The Sporting News Ultimate Baseball Scouting Guide, “Winn is not a good center fielder. Gets better jumps in left than in center. Arm is short and better suited for left.” . …
This is common perception among fans, too, and the note about his arm is true. But everyone looks better in left than in center, and I think this is more an indicator of how underrated Winn is than anything.
[Note to Yankees: he’s not so underrated that you should give up Carl Pavano for him.]
Trades and Seamheads
Bob Finnigan, everyone’s favorite beat writer and incorrect rumor monger extraordinaire, has two pieces in the Times this morning. The daily notebook column and Terrible Trip Muddles M’s, nominally a game recap but really more of a Crazy Rumors From Bob’s Secret Sources piece, one of which we’ve grown accustomed to reading. Some of Finnigan’s claims had me shaking my head, so here’s a brief response to a few of the comments.
CLEVELAND  Seamheads  fans of baseball who get very deep into the game, history and statistics  will be pleased to know that the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) will hold its 2006 convention in Seattle.
Did you know Pat Gillick is a member of SABR, but none of the authors of this blog are? Do you think Finnigan would call Gillick a seamhead? Me neither.
A recent report that the Yankees had a scout here watching Winn is not exactly correct. New York had two scouts at Jacobs Field all of last week, watching Grady Sizemore, among others, on the Cleveland club.
This kind of comment bothers the heck out of me. There’s a huge misunderstanding in the role of professional scouts among fans, and this doesn’t help at all. It’s technically correct, as I’m sure that the Yankees did have scouts at Jacobs Field all week, and I’m sure they did watch Grady Sizemore, since he was playing and all, but the connotation that Finnigan is making is that the Yankees scouts were there to evaluate Sizemore as a potential acquisition. The Indians aren’t trading Grady Sizemore. No way, no how.
The New York Post ran a story yesterday headlined, “Just Winn, Baby.” It reported that the Mariners had scouts Dan Evens and Bob Harrison watching the Yankees in Anaheim. Harrison and Evans are based in Southern California and watch a lot of teams play the Angels.
And here, Finnigan actually gets it right on the button. The presence of scouts at a certain ballgame can often mean nothing other than “they were in the area”. Harrison and Evans may have been scouting the Yankees at the request of the front office, but more likely, they marked this series on their schedule weeks ago as one they would cover as part of their regular duties.
Yet, Winn going to the Yankees remains an intriguing possibility. What would Seattle get in return? One guess is pitcher Carl Pavano, who is on the disabled list but someone the Mariners had great interest in as a free agent last winter.
At least he used the word “guess”. Because there’s nothing to this at all. It’s speculation of the worst kind, no more informed than the made-up trade ideas that populate message boards and threads here that involve Ryan Howard. The Yankees currently have a rotation that includes Johnson, Mussina, Pavano, the shell of Kevin Brown, and the remains of Al Leiter. If they dealt Pavano, they’d get to enjoy the Darrell May experiment again.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the M’s and Yankees discuss Pavano in the offseason, as those who were at the feed heard Bavasi speak highly of Pavano and how well they felt he would have fit in at Safeco Field. But the Yankees, in the midst of a pennant race, aren’t trading one of the three major league starting pitchers they have for Randy Winn.
So why did Finnigan “guess”? I guess it makes for better copy than saying that the M’s are interested in Sean Henn, who most fans have never heard of, and posted an 11.86 ERA in three starts with New York.
Note to Bob: The trade deadline is crazy enough without a man who has access to the front office “guessing” in the local papers. If you’re not going to bother using the credibility that “Seattle Times Beatwriter” still carries with most of the fanbase, then give up the post. Lord knows the sportspage over there could use a shakeup, probably moreso than the Mariners.
Beltre, nooooooooo!
April: .258/.284/.361
May: .216/.245/.353
June: .321/.391/.444 (woo-hooooo!)
July, to date: .240/.278/.452 (d’oh!)
Home: .268/.311/.386
Away: .248/.288/.406
Game 97, Mariners at Indians
The game is in a rain delay right now. If it lets up, here’s a game thread. If not, we can discuss precipitation’s effect on our daily lives. Or something.
Why are you at the ballpark?
An informal* survey of fans** attending Mariner home games***
- Related to, or former neighbors of, Willy Bloomquist
- New higher beer prices have created a more family-friendly atmosphere
- Just because
- Broken-hearted metal fans jonesing for dose of Spiezio after Sandfrog CD stolen out of their classic red Z28 IROC Camero
- Japanese Ichiro fans who booked unrefundable vacations before season
- Love the music
- Health department inspectors forced to pay for tickets before they can investigate food poisoning cases
- Masochists enjoying the hard plastic seats
- UW Greek community has been too drunk since 2001 to check standings, keeps coming out for the beer garden
- Guys: chicks dig hardcore fans
- Chicks: Hardcore guy fans demonstrate loyalty and are better long-term mates than bandwagon fans
- Doctor prescribed regular Mariner viewing, in person if possible, for manic problems
- Doctor prescribed regular Mariner viewing, in person if possible, for insomnia problems
- Searching for the essence of Raul Ibanez as part of preparation to carve his image into Mt. Rushmore
- Uncool kids studying Ichiro for tips on cultivating cool image without taking up smoking
- Received urgent email from foreign national eager to move money out of home country and split it with attendee — brought $20,000 in “fees” to help the transaction along
- Parasites from ballpark sushi controlling actions and wanted to visit relatives
- Promised full frontal nudity
- Released bug bomb in house, needed to kill a few hours
- Boone’s abscence makes families feel more secure about bringing their attractive daughters
- Dave Henderson convinced them it’s not about winning or losing, but instead seeing something interesting at the park every day.
- Fans of angst
- Kind of like Quidditch, except the rules make sense
- There to put the team down in humane manner
- Mariners holding beloved relative hostage
- More attracted to losing teams — easier to identify with
- Obeying hidden messages in Bjork songs
- Died, in purgatory
- Members of Dave Hansen Hussars, the fanatical militaristic fan club that follows the pinch-hitter everywhere, and look to his professional hitting as an inspiration in their own lives
- Members of Hussies for Hansen, women (and men) of free sexual moral standards, who follow the pinch-hitter everywhere, holding celebrations of debauchery that cause Bacchus to blush and look away
- They’ve been given the standard sub-standard training and are waiting for their scheduled post-game match on the game grid
- Can’t get enough of that video lecturing you not to touch balls in play
- Decreased attendence means more chances to touch balls in play
- One of these nights it’s going to be Bollywood night
- Strange, irresistable desire to be closer to producer/engineer Kevin Cremin
- Ticket prices are the same, so the product must be just as good
* and by ‘informal’ we mean “no questions were asked of anyone, or answers recorded, and we weren’t even around Safeco Field when we wrote this”
** we’re fans, right?
*** this part totally, totally false
one of those by Jeff Shaw