April In Review
One of the things we’ve decided to do for 2005 is to take a look back at the end of each month and do a mini state-of-the-team kind of thing. Now, one thing to keep in mind is that these take a couple of days to gather, so some statistics are going to be a couple of days out of date. I think we can all get past that, though. Hope you all enjoy.
Dave:
The Good:
Ichiro! He just keeps on hitting, putting up more tremendous numbers by finding holes where they seemingly don’t exist. He’s also running again, which is great news, because his high percentage basestealing just adds to his value. There’s not a whole lot more to say about the guy. He’s good.
The M’s defense is, as expected, one of the best in baseball. They are converting 72 percent of balls in play into outs, third best in all of baseball. When the fielders have a chance to make a play, they usually do. The team’s ERA is 3.80, but their Fielding Independant ERA is 4.57. Not all of that difference is the gloves, but its a significant part of why the pitching staff has been so effective. Defense is, by far, the strength of this team.
Jamie Moyer has been awesome. 32 innings, a 2.53 ERA, just 2 home runs allowed, and a 3.5/1 strikeout to walk ratio? He’s not getting hit lucky; his BABIP is .284, right in line with what you’d expect given the defense and park he pitches in. He’s just pitching fantastically well. He’s throwing strikes, getting ahead, changing speeds, and keeping guys off the bases and the ball in the park. He’s been essentially as good as any other pitcher in the American League.
Last but not least, how about the bullpen? The M’s seven relievers have thrown 48 innings with a 2.43 ERA. They’ve walked 10 and struck out 41. Villone, Putz, Mateo, and Hasegawa have been especially good, allowing just 3 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings for a 0.97 ERA. The arms out of the pen put up a great month.
The Bad:
We knew the bench was horrible. But this is another level of awfulness. Dobbs, Spiezio, Bloomquist, and Wilson are a combined 9 for 53, hitting .169/.214/.245 for the month. Abysmal doesn’t begin to describe that type of crappy hitting. The reserves are, by far, the worst in baseball. It’s a glaring hole on the team.
The bottom of the lineup. Winn, Olivo, and Valdez are hitting .229/.280/.289. Winn’s getting on base at a decent clip, but the two spots behind him have been so awful that it just doesn’t matter. The M’s have almost no chance at big innings, because the last third of the lineup are nearly guaranteed outs.
After a dominating spring training, Good Gil Meche apparently got beaten up by Lousy Gil Meche and shoved in a closet somewhere, because we haven’t seen him since. He’s averaging less than 5 innings per start, has a 6.86 ERA, lousy peripherals, and pain in his elbow. We know, the guy has good stuff, but he’s about as reliable as a ’78 Fiat. 2005 is Gil Meche’s make or break year, and right now, he’s leaning pretty heavily towards break.
The injuries have piled up. Madritsch going down hurts a lot. Pokey Reese still hasn’t made his official Mariner debut. Bucky’s rehab isn’t going well. Meche has elbow pain. Sexson had the flu for two weeks. Guardado looks like he’s 142 years old. At full strength, this team has some promise, but it doesn’t look like we’re going to get anything close to a full strength club this year.
The Overall:
While the record is pretty much what I expected, the methods to the wins have been weird. The team essentially has won with clutch hitting, Jamie Moyer, good relief work, and big time defense. The offense has been abysmal, ranking near the bottom in most every category, except runs scored, which is the one that counts. There are a lot of performances that you look at and say “that can’t continue”, but for the most part, the team is winning about as often as we thought they would.
What to Expect in May:
Jeremy Reed is ready to start tearing the cover off the ball. After a bad first series, he’s swinging the bat well, and all the indicators are there. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the M’s best hitter over the next month.
Ryan Franklin is going to come back to earth. His BABIP is .144. That’s not sustainable, even if the M’s got an exemption from the league to use 15 defenders the rest of the year. His good run in April has had a lot more to do with good fortune than good pitching, and that simply won’t continue much longer.
The schedule is rough in May, with two series’ apiece with the Yankees and Red Sox. The team could play a lot better and still win less games. Look for improvement in the level of play, not necessarily the record.
Jeff:
April has been close to heart-stopping and faint-inducing. Almost
one-third of the Mariners’ games — six out of nineteen — have been
decided by one run.
Two implications to this: first, April has already been more
interesting than most of last year, especially since no team in the AL
West seems ready to separate themselves from the pack; second, it’s
only a matter of time before some cardiac patient sues the team for
$10 billion, the moose costume and Howard Lincoln’s cufflinks.
Excitement aside, it isn’t hard to diagnose the bench as a major
malady. Scott Spiezio, who we expected to be the only reserve whose
bat would work on occasion, is injured and unproductive.
Worse, the barren bench supercharges another bugaboo: hitters seven
through nine. Bad as it is to have three near-automatic outs at the
bottom of the starting lineup, it’s even worse to have no better
pinch-hitting option in the late innings. The bench is like Dracula to
an already anemic end of the order.
That said, it’s tough to complain about the team’s defense, and the
pitching’s performed pretty well, too. But what can we expect from the
offense?
In my opinion, Dave is spot-on about Jeremy Reed. Let me add another
member to the breakout watch.
If Ryan Franklin has to come back to earth, then Adrian Beltre has to
start rising. Right now, his slugging percentage (.315) is about half
what it was last yer (.629). Even if you expect last year to be his
limit, he’s not going to hit one home run a month for the rest of the
year.
Most of the other main cogs in the lineup are hitting pretty close to
what you can expect given their career norms. We can probably
anticipate the Richie Sexson will get on base more than he has, given
that he’s been deathly ill and that his career OBP is about 50 points
higher than what he’s shown so far.
If Beltre produces like we know he can, though, and Reed performs like
we suspect he will, an offensive jump-start may be in the offing.
Here’s hoping.
Derek:
I think watching Hargrove has been the most interesting part of this
first stretch. It’s almost an example of how little things change
between any two major league managers. Were you tired of Melvin’s
one-out pitching changes? Hargrove does that too. Weird in-game
decisions? Not so much, but then you don’t notice the absence of things.
Given the lineup he’s been given, I’m not too wigged out by his decision
to play Bloomquist in center: I see that more as a team failure to get
him an effective fourth outfielder he could use in that role. This
team’s bench is not constructed to complement the everyday lineup at
all, and I’m not sure there’s a lot to be done about it. In part, that’s
because they’re short on space: you can’t find a random AAA veteran bat
and stuff them in there, because there’s no room.
Well, there is.. you put them in the Choo-Leone memorial 25-man roster
slot. It’s strange to me that the M’s were able to pluck Valdez off
waivers, but didn’t snag (say) Calvin Pickering or someone to help the team.
Carrying a 12-man pen is bizarre, and his insistence on it baffles me.
And yet he’s been getting stellar work out of those guys, even as at any
one point there may be one or two relievers who haven’t pitched in a week.
Game 25: Mariners @ Oakland
In a rematch, Joel Pineiro takes on Barry Zito today at 1:05. TV: FSN. Radio: Komo.
Last time, the M’s got to Zito late. Hopefully, they don’t wait as long this time.
Moyer
You know the three true outcomes. Well, here are the three noble truths of the baseball season in late April: it’s early, it’s early, it’s early.
Sportsline’s Scott Miller profiles Jamie Moyer today, and don’t they say that old people are supposed to be wise? He preaches just that gospel.
Moyer comes off much as you’d expect: cerebral, straightforward, humble. He’s quick to point out that we can’t draw firm conclusions about where the season is headed yet, especially as regards his own performance. Bonus points are awarded for pithy points like this:
“I’ve only pitched in five games this season,” Moyer says. “You haven’t given me a chance to give up 44 home runs in five games.”
Classic.
We also have a clubhouse leader for the Tom Friedman Award in Nonsensical Metaphor. Quoth Miller:
Granted, if you look at the season like an M&M, we haven’t even broken the candy coating yet.
Really, who doesn’t look at the season like an M&M? What, is Miller taking an Amstrong Williams style payoff from the Mars company?
Week #4 in Review
It’s a dreary, wet day. Fridays seem to be sleepy days here in central Kentucky. I’m sitting here in the coffee shop of the tiny college town drowning myself in some Seattle Blue Nile brew or something, attempting to get some work done. And if we’re lucky, we can squeeze this into a regular routine.
Vital Signs
As of today the Mariners are 11-11, tied for 2nd place in the AL West and two games back of the Angels. They’ve scored 99 runs, which is better than Oakland in the division, but unfortunately, only better than the A’s, Indians and Royals in the context of the whole league. On the happy side, they’ve allowed 93 runs, giving them a run differential of +6, and that accurately reflects they’re .500 record. Oakland and Los Angeles (that’s so weird to type) have each allowed 92 runs, and the only team in the league significantly better than that is Minnesota at 87. So, the run prevention has been top-notch thus far.
Over the past seven days, the Mariners split the week’s games, going 3-3, and scored a run for every one they gave up (25) against a Cleveland club that has suddenly developed an allergy to first base and a Rangers squad that still bleeds runs. That the Mariners scored as many runs as their opponents this week is pretty significant when you consider that the pitchers got clobbered for 10 homers (of a total 47 hits allowed, yikes!) while the lineup provided just 3. They did out-walk the opposition 25-18, and that helps.
Heroes
Raul Ibanez had a hot night at the ballpark Tuesday, reaching base 4 times, and for the week went 8-for-19 (.421/.560/.526). Toss in 6 bases on balls and that’s 14 times on base in 6 games. When you reach more times than you make an out, that’s a very good thing. Now if only the three fellas behind him in the batting order could get it together. The 7-8-9 hitters combined to go 11-for-60. And Raul Ibanez crossed home plate only twice.
Randy Johnson. Roger Clemens. Jamie Moyer. One of these pitchers is not like the others. Yet it was Moyer who tossed 95 pitches over 8 innings Sunday, allowing just a home run to Bret Boone’s baby brother. He threw 62% of his pitches for strikes, allowing just 6 hits without a walk and struck out 5. Moyer’s K/BB for the season is currently 3.29. The only time in his career he’s maintained a ratio over 3 for a whole season was 1998.
Not-so-much Heroes
This just has not been Bret Boone’s week: 4-for-23 (.174/.200/.217). He created 8 more outs than Ibanez, reached base 11 fewer times. And scored just as many runs. Go figure.
Ryan Franklin didn’t have such a hot week either. But we’ll get to that in a minute.
Game 22, Mariners at Rangers
Gil Meche (throwing with no pain! really!) takes on shortstop Michael Young, who is making a rare pitching — what? Oh. Never mind. Chris Young pitches for Texas.
5:05, broadcast TV on KSTW.
So I asked a question some time ago that no one answered — who was the last Mariner position player on the 25-man to pitch in a competitive game (ie, no exhibitions) — and only got a couple of guesses. Right now, I think it might be Choo in 2000 — Choo was a stellar pitcher before the Mariners signed and converted him.
Anyone with a more recent example, speak up..
Today’s M’s news, PI bit on the bench
Check it out. Or, you know, don’t. I was happy to turn this in last night and then this morning see they brought Hansen in.
In other M’s news, bad news on Pokey: the team recommended surgery, which would put him on the 60-day DL (opening a roster spot) and could end his season.
From the PI, on last night’s non-argument from Hargrove:
Manager Mike Hargrove said he thought it might be a bad call, but he didn’t have a great angle on it, so he didn’t go out to protest.
Ahhh, it’s like a return to the calm days of Melvin. Mr. Hargrove: it’s okay to go out there and say “boy, it sure didn’t look like that from where I was” and make your point, even if you don’t have the benefit of six camera angles.
The PI also gets this gold quote from Hargrove on the 12-man staff:
“We’ve got a 12-man staff and we’re going to go with that for the foreseeable future,” he said. “It’s working OK for us. We’ve been able to keep everybody fairly active.”
Um… you have? Because it sure doesn’t seem like it.
But what do I know? As long as he finds a way to work pitchers into the game the day they’re in the papers whinging about not having work, everything should work out.
A 12-man pitching staff might be useful in some circumstances, like you’ve got a rotation of Meche clones. But even then… this team needs some random bats and a quality backup outfielder, not a Jeff Nelson who pitches once a week.
Dave Hansen
The M’s have signed Dave Hansen to a minor league contract. He’s going to join the Rainiers today, but the feeling is that he’ll be replacing Shin-Soo Choo on the major league roster sooner rather than later.
Hansen’s not the answer to our prayers, but this is a nice little pickup.
Reese still out, other stuff
Seattle PI and others report that Pokey Reese’s arm is still sore. He’s headed back to Seattle for further examination. In the same notebook, the PI also talks to Nelson about his lack of work —
“I could use more work, but I think it’s tough for them right now,” Nelson said. “For me to be really helping the team in short relief, I need to pitch more, but I think the same can be said for Shiggy (Shigetoshi Hasegawa) and J.J. (Putz).
“It’s tough for them right now with 12 pitchers and the starting pitchers getting deeper into games. But it’s tough, too, to have to come into a critical situation when you haven’t pitched in four or five games.”
This, folks, is why the 12-man pitching staff is pointless. You don’t think the M’s could use some random AAA all-hit bat on the bench instead of having three, four right-handed relievers biting each other for table scrap innings?
But then, if Choo is up and they’re not going to even try to use him, what’s the point in caring either way?
Incidentally, touching on an issue that came up in discussing Strong’s suspension, the Times had this in Finnigan’s article:
The eight other Seattle players, including catcher Ryan Christianson, were suspended for 15 days because that is the policy regarding minor-leaguers. Strong’s penalty was less severe because he is on the Mariners’ 40-man roster.
And in the PI piece:
The major league program calls for a 10-day suspension for a first offense. For purposes of the testing, Strong is considered a major leaguer even though he’s playing for Tacoma because he’s on the 40-man roster.
It was cool to see both papers offer a reasonably succinct explanation of why Strong’s supsension was 10-day. The PI also gets mixed up on the game/day length of the suspension on the first mention, but they’re not the only people — I have trouble remembering that the ML one is 10 days but the minor league one is 15 games.
Another Mariner suspended for ‘roiding
Yet another Mariner minor league player has been suspended ten games for violating the steroid policy. The slugger who has been using the banned substances to increase his power…
For all the talk of how steroids have helped home run hitters, its interesting that speedy contact guys are the ones testing positive.
June of 24: Another Paean to the Great Ichiro
Watching baseball trends emerge is like seeing ripples in the desert. You want the ripples to herald an oasis, but you don’t want to emerge sandy-mouthed if it’s just another mirage.
I had this in mind when I saw that the New York Times has Bob Sherwin’s latest piece on Ichiro up now. [Use Bugmenot if you aren’t registered]
Well worth reading in its entirety, the section of most interest to me involves a batting stance adjustment Ichiro says he made last June.
But June 24 was the night of his breakthrough, he said. During batting practice, he experimented by moving his right foot – the front foot in his batting stance – a couple of inches away from the plate, opening his stance and spreading his legs four more inches apart. He said those minor changes allowed him to lower his bat angle slightly.
One must be careful when taking claims like this at face value, not because of any doubts about an athlete’s veracity, but because no one is truly objective when performing a self-evaluation. After all, Ichiro went one for seven on June 24, 2004, and just seven for his next 33.
But what if he’s right? What if he did figure it out on that night, and it stays figured out? What if, in the middle of a 99-loss Sahara, he hit sweet water, dates and maybe an olive tree that’s fueling a very real performance boost?
Giving immediate credence to the June 24 Hypothesis are the numbers from that day forward. In the 480 at bats he’s recorded since moving his front leg a few inches, Ichiro has 191 hits.
That’s a significant hunk of time — a little over two-thirds of an average season — at a .398 clip, folks.
Occasionally forgotten: Ichiro has historically been a slow starter. Scope out his month-by-month splits. Mariner fans given to wishful thinking — guilty — have pondered how great a season he might turn in with a torrid run to start this campaign.
Going into the 2005 season, Ichiro was a .270 hitter for April. His hot start to this year (.355 so far) has boosted that to a .288 average in the opening month, which is still his lowest rate for any month of the year.
Breaking down statistics by month is arbitrary, to be sure, and players labeled slow starters or late faders don’t always perform consistently in those ways. Ichiro hasn’t been stellar in September, either, for example. Additionally, all players are capable of an unpredictable, prolonged slump, and some of those players are even written off by an august persona such as David Locke.
We’re looking at a 300-plus at-bat April sample size, though, and while I can’t find Japan statistics broken down by month, he had a “heats up as the season goes along” reputation with the Orix Blue Wave as well. That lends credence to the notion that No. 51 usually takes a while to get going. And we have nearly 500 at-bats that say hey, maybe he has reached a new plateau.
What might have been last year had Ichiro improved on his .255 April 2004 average? We may be about to find out.