Game 44, Mariners At Padres
Bedard vs Latos, 7:05 pm.
Sorry this one is going up late.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Kennedy, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Ryan, SS
Bedard, P
The six-man bullpen
As you know, the six-man bullpen is something we’ve lobbied for repeatedly around here. In a way, a road trip that includes interleague play is perfect timing for it, because playing National League rules significantly increases the importance of your bench for in-game strategy. As terrifying as it sounds, there will be times when “Jack Wilson, pinch-hitter” is a better option than “ordered to keep the bat on my shoulder in spring training” Michael Pineda or “swing with my eyes closed” Felix.
Despite this logic, however, the trend in baseball has overwhelmingly favored carrying seven and sometimes even eight guys in the pen. Even National League teams who bring bats off the bench on a daily basis haven’t really resisted it. I think the overall phenomenon might be ready to move in the other direction, though, and in going to a six-man bullpen, the Mariners could become part of a reversal in this trend.
Ultimately, the real driving force is likely to be the change in the run-scoring environment, more than any difference between the leagues. It’s a product of the psychology of baseball managers as much as anything. If you’re playing 7-6 ballgames and can get offense out of your lineup from top to bottom (even from the likes of Jose Lopez), when looking for that little bit of advantage so you end up with the 7 and not the 6, you end up focusing more on who your relief options are and having enough of them, because it seems like there’s a bigger difference between them. In that setting, it seems to matter a great deal whether you’re bringing in an Arthur Rhodes or a Julio Mateo.
On the other hand, in an environment full of 3-2 scores, it stands to reason that starting pitchers will be able to go deeper into games (including underwhelming Doug Fister types; I’d say Erik Bedard, but that would just be getting greedy) and you’ll have less opportunity and need for all of those relievers. In that context, suddenly a guy like Jamey Wright can get people out in the late innings, and you’re never going to use Tom Wilhelmsen, so why bother keeping him around? As they adjust to this, managers will start focusing more on scratching out that third run with their position players, as opposed to holding the other team off with their bullpen. And it will seem to them, and in turn the front office, that having a versatile bench matters more, relatively speaking, than having lots of relief pitching options.
Now if this kind of transition happens, it will take place gradually, and managers will take time to re-learn how they want to use a fuller bench. Some of the changes may involve the re-emergence of the traditional platoon system, which had seemed to be very much in decline around baseball. Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson aren’t the greatest left field options, but if that’s all you have they should at least be platooned, so that much the Mariners have figured out. Eventually Eric Wedge may also stop counting on sun-aided base hits from Peguero when he faces a lefthanded relief pitcher.
There are other developments we might anticipate, but will have to wait and see on. For example, having some kind of black hole in your lineup is practically inevitable these days. The Mariners have more than most because of a lousy roster, but you’re almost bound to have at least one Brendan Ryan. If you have somebody on your bench who can hit, maybe you pinch-hit for Ryan more in close games. Also, now that Franklin Gutierrez is back, hopefully Wedge figures out that Michael Saunders has by far the best glove for left field, and really should be out there as a defensive replacement with a lead in the late innings.
Game 43: Angels at Mariners
Day game after a night game means that Gutierrez gets a rest and Michael Saunders gets the unenviable task of facing Dan Haren.
The M’s trot out a lefty-heavy line-up, but Haren’s been impressive against lefties this year – he’s cut his walk rate against southpaws to below 5%, and his K rate is safely above 20%. This is a sample of only 164 plate appearances, but these stats stabilize quickly. Good luck, Peguero!
With the early start, it’s not surprising to see Chris Gimenez get the nod at catcher, but this will be the third straight Fister start that Gimenez catches. Gimenez has thrown out the same number of runners on the basepaths (3) as Miguel Olivo, in almost 240 fewer innings.
1: Ichiro
2: Figgins
3: Smoak
4: Cust
5: Kennedy
6: Rodriguez
7: Peguero
8: Gimenez
9: Saunders
SP: Fister
Immediate Expectations For Ackley
My newest post is up at Brock and Salk’s blog, and it deals with how quickly we can expect Dustin Ackley to become a good Major League hitter. I’ll be on the air with the 710 ESPN guys at 9:30 am to talk about Ackley and the M’s.
Here are the first few paragraphs of the new piece – you can read the rest at their blog.
You’ve probably heard that Dustin Ackley is on fire down in Tacoma. After a tough April, Ackley is hitting .377/.482/.638 in May, and an even more impressive .463/.540/.707 in his last 10 games. He’s dominating Pacific Coast League pitchers, and it won’t be long before the Mariners give him a chance to show what he can do in the big leagues.
Given all the busted prospects the M’s have had over the last few years and the continuing struggles of most of the young hitters on the roster right now, I wouldn’t blame you for exercising a little skepticism about what Ackley might be able to do over the rest of the season. A lot of players tear up the minors only to face a reality check once they get to the big leagues, and gaudy numbers in Triple-A do not always translate to immediate success.
However, there are reasons to believe that Ackley may not experience the same growing pains the Mariners have had to endure with the likes of Michael Saunders, Jeff Clement, and Wladimir Balentien. Unlike the other three, Ackley succeeds using high level hand-eye coordination that makes up for a lack of big time power. While he has six home runs for the Rainiers already, he’s never going to be much of a slugger, and his value at the plate will come by racking up singles, doubles, and walks.
Over the last 20 years, players with this kind of high walk, low strikeout approaches have often made seamless transition to the Major Leagues. In 164 at-bats for Tacoma, Ackley has drawn 33 walks and struck out just 25 times. Here’s how a few other similar hitters have fared in that category before getting promoted:
Game 42, Angels At Mariners
Vargas vs Weaver, 7:10 PM.
Franklin Gutierrez returns to the team and immediately goes back to center field and the #5 spot in the line-up. Wedge recognizes that even a rehabbing Gutierrez is better than a healthy Miguel Olivo.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Kennedy, 2B
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Rodriguez, SS
Minor League Wrap (5/9-15/11)
Abbreviated stuff. I’m still in NYC and probably won’t have time to respond to comments promptly, but hey, there’s the usual pitcher/hitter/transaction stuff, and a few random notes as I have seen fit. As stated before, the next wrap will be off-schedule as well. Also, we signed a Cuban left-hander last week, and I know at least a few things about him.
To the jump!
Read more
Franklin Gutierrez is back
The Mariners activated Franklin Gutierrez tonight, and sent RHP Tom Wilhelmsen to AA Jackson to get some work in the rotation. Wilhelmsen worked as a starter last year for A Clinton before moving to the pen in the Arizona Fall League.
Gutierrez has played fairly well for AAA Tacoma in a de facto spring training assignment. He hasn’t played a ton of CF; he frequently gave way to a replacement late in games, and played several games as the designated hitter. Still, with Michael Saunders in deep freeze at the plate, the M’s obviously thought the time was right to bring Guti up.
This won’t fix the M’s defensive woes by itself, but it certainly helps an anemic offense and a surprisingly poor defense. I think expectations should be limited for a while, but he’s still a far sight better than Saunders.
Game 41, Twins At Mariners
Hernandez vs Liriano, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
A year ago, this would have been a fantastic match-up, but right now, Francisco Liriano is a shell of what he was. He’s not throwing strikes, he’s not getting strikeouts, and he’s been one of the worst pitchers in the American League. There’s talent there, but if the M’s let him get himself in trouble, he probably will. Patience is a virtue tonight.
Also, Geoff Baker suggests that Dustin Ackley is not coming up tomorrow. While he doesn’t have any direct quotes from team officials, he’s in a position to have someone in the front office tell him this directly without putting it on the record, and he has better access to information than I do, so take his report with more credence than what I was told this afternoon.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Cust, DH
J. Wilson, 2B
M. Wilson, LF
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Ackley Coming Up “Soon” – Maybe Tomorrow
Yesterday, Jack Zduriencik went on KJR with Mitch Levy and said that Dustin Ackley would be up “sooner than later”. Ackley then proceeded to hit a home run on the first pitch of the Rainiers game today and added a couple of singles as well, giving him another three hit day and continuing his torrid run through the PCL of late. This afternoon, I was told that soon could equal tomorrow, as the organization is apparently considering promoting Ackley to the roster after tonight’s game.
Now, I want to make sure this is all spelled out; It wasn’t Jack who told me this, so the information could be wrong. He also didn’t say that they were definitely calling him up – the way it was described to me is that they were going to talk about whether he should come up tomorrow. The Rainiers have an off-day to travel back from New Orleans, and so from a logistical standpoint, there are reasons to do it tomorrow. The team probably would prefer he debut at home to a warm reception, and may rather call him up while he’s scorching hot rather than waiting a few weeks and having a potentially cooled off Ackley make his debut with a little less confidence.
They might decide to just leave him down for a few more weeks in order to get past the presumed deadline for Super Two status, but I was told that wasn’t much of a consideration because most people in baseball don’t think the Super Two statute will still exist by the time Ackley would be eligible for it. It’s a part of the arbitration rules that no one really likes, and it could easily be abolished in the next collective bargaining agreement – the current version expires in December.
The team has already crossed the threshold of service time where Ackley is guaranteed to be under team control through 2017, so they would not lose him to free agency a year early by calling him up now. They do risk the possibility that he ends up qualifying for arbitration after 2013, which could escalate his salaries fairly quickly, but if they believe that Super Two status won’t exist in a few years, than there wouldn’t be any financial harm in calling him up now.
As for who would go away to make room for him, my guess would be Luis Rodriguez. Despite my fondness for the little guy, his line right now is just .173/.279/.308, and there’s a pretty good chance he’d make it through waivers. The M’s could probably flip-flop those two without having to give up any organizational depth or make a call on a Jack Wilson trade right away.
Obviously, we’ll find out tomorrow. I don’t know that the team will call Ackley up, but it’s apparently being talked about. It’s obvious that he’ll be up soon – the only question is whether soon is tomorrow or a few weeks from now.
Game 40, Twins At Mariners, For Real This Time
Pineda vs Baker, 7:10 pm.
The solution to rainouts? Change cities and play under a roof. We’ll actually have some baseball tonight after a couple of impromptu days off. Once again, Eric Wedge has said that he won’t use Brandon League as his closer tonight, wanting to give him a day off. The fact that everyone just had two is apparently not a factor. I’ll officially call that weird.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Olivo, C
Kennedy, 2B
Peguero, LF
Rodriguez, SS
Saunders, CF