Rick Waits: Pitching Coordinator
Waits takes over Carl Willis’ old job, after seven years of serving in the minor league pitching coordinator capacity for the Mets. Prior to that, he had served as the pitching coach before Rick Peterson, and the bullpen coach before that. The Mets didn’t exactly have the strongest track record for developing pitching while he was in charge. In fact, you may be familiar with some of his former charges that have come our way in Yusmeiro Petit and Gaby Hernandez. You may also recognize certain names from the past of prospecting lists like Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey. If you’re sensing a trend of the Mets not really generating good pitchers internally, you’re correct. I suppose Jonathon Niese is all right.
How this will turn out for us, we don’t know exactly. There are more factors involved in the development of a pitching prospect than can easily be accounted for, or attributed to one individual. Waits will take his orders from Willis, and we’ll see how things shake out from there. It’s unlikely that this is going to make a huge impact one way or the other. This is just some small amount of news.
For my own part, I plan on working in as many Tom Waits references as possible as long as he’s here.
My Favorite Dave Niehaus Memory
I’ve been struggling since I heard the news. I felt like I should write something, but didn’t want to just put up a post because I was supposed to. And, unlike Shannon Drayer or someone else close to him, I didn’t have much personal experience with the man. I met him once when I was younger, but our relationship has been a one way street. And besides, Dave didn’t like blogs, and if he knew what I wrote, he probably wouldn’t have liked me all that much.
But I liked him. Listening to him call a baseball game always reminded me of why I became a fan in the first place. He was the personification of my childhood, and now he’s gone. I can’t write a tribute to the man the way Shannon did, so instead, I’m just going to tell you a story.
Every year, the school I attended had three day getaways for all the students. We went to the woods, did a bunch of stuff, and “got away from it all”. In order to enforce the not-your-normal-routine environment, they banned electronics from the trip. Most of my friends were mad that they couldn’t bring their gameboys. I was mad that I couldn’t bring my radio. You see, in 1995, they just happened to schedule this thing for October 3rd through the 5th, better known to most of Seattle as Games 1 and 2 of the American League Division Series between the Mariners and Yankees. I was the biggest baseball fan in the school, and they decided to take us on a get-away-from-life trip to the mountains during the first two playoff games the Mariners would ever play. And they outlawed radios.
Looking back, I can’t believe my parents made me go. What a ridiculous decision that was, and one that I’m going to yell at them for now that I think about it. But, they did make me go, and so on the day of Game 1, I piled into a bus with my sleeping bag and various assorted toiletries, and off we went. When we got to the camp, I went to our little a-frame cabin and unpacked my stuff, including my super-secret weapon against their nefarious plot to keep me from playoff baseball – an alarm clock. I had to wake up on time to get to breakfast, after all, so the chaperone couldn’t put up a fight about me having that one item that needed to be plugged in. It was pure coincidence that I brought an alarm clock that happened to have a radio, of course.
The real problem came from the time difference. Since the game was on the east coast, it was played at around dinner time, and I had no reason to bring my “alarm clock” to dinner or the night meeting. I had to try, though, so I stuck the bulky thing in my jacket and sat near a plug while I ate. I managed to catch the first few innings before we had to head over to the Lodge, as Dave gracefully informed me that Chris Bosio was pitching like, well, Chris Bosio. Unfortunately, my contraband was detected and I was asked to surrender the radio before we transitioned to the meeting at night. Luckily for me, my captor was also our basketball coach, who happened to be a pretty big sports fan himself.
During the meeting, he decided to put my radio to good use, plugging it in in a back room somewhere and occasionally running me updates. Bobby Ayala was terrible? Well, I knew that already. Game 1 ended before our meeting did, and I was informed of the bad news before getting my alarm back for the evening.
Wednesday, though, the game ran long. You may remember it as a five hour, 15 inning epic affair that featured four innings of Norm Charlton, among other things. This time, I had brought my radio to the accomplice, figuring some updates were better than nothing. When our meeting ended, however, the game was still going on. I got there in time to hear Dave call Jim Leyritz’s home run with just enough disgust in his voice, but I also heard Dave remind us all of how crazy the season had been, and how Randy Johnson was taking the hill on Friday, and that we couldn’t give up on this team now.
I can still hear Dave’s encouragement in my ears. He imparted hope to a young boy who was not ready for the team’s playoff run to be over.
Four days later, we got The Double. I watched that one on TV, but we weren’t listening to Brent Musberger. We were only interested in hearing one voice call that final game, and it came through the radio. Everyone knows how that call went, and while I’m part of the masses that get goosebumps every time I hear Dave yell “the throw to the plate will be late…”, I also remember sitting in the woods, gathered around a crappy alarm radio, hearing Dave tell me that the Mariners were coming home, and with The Big Unit on the mound, anything was possible.
When Dave Niehaus was broadcasting a game, anything was possible. We’ll all be back for opening day, but it won’t feel as special without Dave around. You will be missed greatly, sir.
A Tribute To Dave
Pretty cool idea by ESPN 710.
710 ESPN Seattle and News Talk 97.3 KIRO FM, the radio home of the Mariners, will broadcast game 5 of the 1995 American League Division Series in tribute to the Hall of Fame broadcaster Dave Niehaus Saturday, November 13, 2010 at 12noon.
“My Oh My – A Tribute to Dave Niehaus” recognizes him as one of the best and most exciting broadcasters in the game. This commercial free replay of a fan favorite game as the Seattle Mariners defeated the New York Yankees in an amazing divisional comeback will include memories and comments from former players and broadcasters including Ken Griffey Jr., Jay Buhner, Rick Rizzs, Harold Reynolds, Ron Fairly and more.
“Dave’s play-by-play speaks for itself, and stands the test of time,” said Carl Gardner, Bonneville Seattle Media Group Vice President and Market Manager. “We can think of no greater tribute to the man than to re-broadcast his master work – the greatest game of his exceptional career.”
Dave Niehaus, the voice of the Seattle Mariners since the team’s inception in 1977, passed away Wednesday, November 10, 2010 at the age of 75. For more information on the passing of Dave Niehaus and to hear an audio montage of his greatest calls, visit www.MyNorthwest.com.
2010 40-man Roster Candidates
(This was originally set to post this afternoon. I’m torn about this. Part of me wants to talk about minor leaguers so I can stop thinking about Niehaus’ passing, and part of me wants to post nothing but Niehaus clips for a week. We’ll miss you, Dave).
Or, if you prefer, Rule 5 draft candidates…
JY did a great job of running down the rules and the process in last year’s preview, so I’ll stick with the twitter version: ’06 high-school draftees and international signings and ’07 college draftees who are NOT on the 40-man can be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Players who signed one-year minor league deals or who’ve been in the system for at least SIX years without being added to the 40 man become minor league free agents; that list is here.
Last year, Dave and JY discussed the fact that the M’s had room to store more marginal candidates on the 40 man. This year, it’s the same basic thing, only turned up to eleven. If you’re eligible in the Rule 5 draft this year, you’re probably bad, injured, or bad and injured. Last week, the M’s released Casey Kotchman and outrighted Chris Seddon. That brought the M’s “40 Man” roster stands to a lean 29. As a result, we may go deeper down the list of potential 40-man candidates this year. While some may see the turnover on the roster as a sign that the team has no ‘plan,’ I think it’s a good thing. The 2010 Mariners may not have been good at baseball, but they’re a useful reminder that for many, many players, short contracts are better than long ones. If we’re going to have awful baseball players, I’d prefer they be signed for one year and not four (at $12 million per).
With that, let’s take a look at the players who must be added to the roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. We’ll rank them in tiers – the absolute locks, the maybes and the darkhorse/slim chances.
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Dave Niehaus Passes Away
One of the most vivid parts of my childhood has died. We all have the shared memories of the big events – The double, the no-hitters, Jr’s catch on Jesse Barfield, my oh my and the rye bread. However, I can still hear Dave describing a spring training game in which Bip Roberts got a couple of hits. Even though he was on a Padres team that the Mariners never played, that memory never fades because of the man who called it. He was a great storyteller, and he made baseball magical for myself and millions of other children who grew up with his voice.
It was always a beautiful day out for baseball when Dave Niehaus was behind the mic. Thanks for everything, Dave – you were one of the reasons I fell in love with this game.
Shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka Posted
A new name has surfaced out of left field in the conversation of potential middle infielders. Far left field. Dave talked earlier in the offseason about Hiroyuki Nakajima as a second base candidate, but it looks like Seibu won’t be posting him this year, and instead, the Japanese infielder hitting the market is Tsuyoshi Nishioka of the Chiba Lotte Marines.
Nishioka is another leadoff-type hitter, a switch-hitter who led the Pacific League last season with 206 hits, which is the most since Ichiro’s 210 back in 1994. He also topped the leaderboards in games played (144), batting average (.346), and runs (121), along with topping the league in stolen bases in the past due to his smart baserunning. On top of all that, he’s regarded as one of the top defensive infielders in the league and has played shortstop exclusively the past five years. Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker named him his Pacific League MVP for the 2010 season and posted a full article at Fangraphs earlier in the day as the story was going around. Nishioka is also just 26, compared to Nakajima, who is 28 already.
The knock on him? He’s injury prone for one thing, having an assortment of wrist, knee, neck, and hamstring injuries throughout his career. Since he won the full-time job, he’s never played fewer than 115 games, but the risk is there that either he’ll get hurt or be playing through something that hampers him in some way. The other thing is that this season represented a bit of a breakout for him, one that he’s likely to make a fair chunk of money for. We’d certainly be happy to take a straight translation of his .346/.423/.482 line this season, but his career numbers are .293/.364/.426, and he runs the risk of coming back to earth a bit next season.
As we’re competing with everyone else who’s in the market for a shortstop this season (and there are many out there), there’s no guarantee that we’ll get him through the posting process, but file the name away anyway.
Hisashi Iwakuma to….Oakland?
This weekend, we learned that Rakuten would accept the high bid for Iwakuma, then we learned that the high bid may have come from Oakland.
Today, Peter Gammons confirms that Oakland won the rights to sign Iwakuma. Some have speculated about a trade (possibly with Milwaukee), while others think the A’s just want some rotation depth. Either way, it looks like Oakland got its man.
While it stings to lose what looks like a solid starter to a divisional rival, I remember we were all pretty angry when Texas made a late push for Rich Harden and seemingly stole him from the M’s. How’d that work for the Rangers? Yes, yes, they cruised to the AL pennant and all that, and yes, the M’s were awful. But Harden was hurt and ineffective, giving the Rangers 92 sub-replacement level innings in exchange for a cool $7.5m.
What They’re Improving On
One of the popular comments made in response to the suggested offseason plan is that the team looks a lot like last year’s, and last year’s team was terrible. People see the same names and associate equality in production from one year to the next, which is one of the biggest mistakes made in projecting future performance. For reference, here is what the Mariners got in Wins Above Replacement, by position, in 2010, and where that ranked in MLB.
Catcher: 0.1 (30th)
First Base: -1.4 (30th)
Second Base: 0.6 (24th)
Shortstop: -0.3 (27th)
Third Base: -0.4 (29th)
Left Field: -0.5 (29th)
Center Field: +2.2 (24th)
Right Field: +4.8 (10th)
Designated Hitter: -0.2 (11th)
Starting Pitchers: +13.4 (17th)
Relief Pitchers: -0.4 (29th)
Yes, you’re reading that correctly. The Mariners got below replacement level production out of 1B, SS, 3B, LF, DH, and the bullpen. Catcher produced one RUN above replacement, while second base came in just slightly better than that. Truly, the only positions on the team last year that performed any better than what you could have expected from a Triple-A callup were CF, RF, and 4/5 of the starting rotation.
Nick Punto is an upgrade over what the team got last year. Hell, Willie Bloomquist is an upgrade over what the team got last year from most of the roster. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that similar names equals similar production. By any reasonable projection system, the Mariners will improve by quite a bit next year, even if they don’t make major upgrades this winter. There is just no way they’re going to get those kind of below replacement level seasons from that many positions again.
M’s In On Hisashi Iwakuma
Reports out of Japan have the Mariners as the team believed to have placed the highest bid for Hisashi Iwakuma, the 29-year-old RHP who was posted by Rakuten this week. Reportedly, the Mariners bid $13 million, while Rakuten was hoping for a bid in the $16 to $17 million range. They have until next Thursday to decide whether to accept the highest bid, in which case the winning team would then have exclusive negotiating rights with Iwakuma. If they came to an agreement, they would pay their bid figure to Rakuten. If they did not come to an agreement, then they would not pay the posting fee, and he would stay in Japan for another year.
Here’s a write-up on Iwakuma from Patrick Newman, the best source of Japanese information around. The basic summary is that Iwakuma appears to be a pretty extreme groundball guy with good command of five pitches, and while he might not have a dominating strikeout pitch, he’s still considered second only to Yu Darvish among Japanese pitchers in potential to succeed in Major League Baseball. The Hiroki Kuroda comparisons are going to be common, as he had a similar profile when he came over, and he’s been nothing short of a massive success for the Dodgers.
If Iwakuma turned out to perform at a Kuroda type level, he’d be the second best free agent pitcher on the market, and a $13 million posting fee would almost certainly be a huge bargain. It’s definitely something to keep an eye on, as if the reports are true and the M’s did win the bidding, you’re probably looking at the team’s #2 starter next year. Given that the organization has traditionally paid international signing bonuses and posting fees out of a separate budget than the one that governs the Major League roster, this could be a pretty significant development, giving the team a quality pitcher while still allowing them enough money to get an impact hitter.
Dave’s Offseason Plan, 2011 Style
It’s back again – the annual winter tradition where I speculate on some potential moves the M’s could make and put together my own roster for next year. I try to be as realistic as possible, though everyone will have their own opinions on the viability of these moves. I’m sticking to a $93 million budget, about the same amount as what the team spent last year, and will hopefully get in the realm of possibility with the dollars for the arbitration eligible guys and suggested free agents. In the one trade suggested, I’ve tried to fairly compensate the other team with sufficient talent to make the deal work for both sides. As always, the specific players are examples of the types of moves I’d like to see the team make, but there are various alternatives at each position. Oh, and yes, this is your thread for rosterbation. Go nuts.
The Moves
Trade David Aardsma and Jose Lopez to Arizona for OF Cole Gillespie and IF Ryan Roberts
Sign DH Lance Berkman to a 2 year, $12 million contract
Sign LHP Jeff Francis to a 2 year, $10 million contract
Sign IF Nick Punto to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract
Sign LHP Mark Hendrickson to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Sign C Gregg Zaun to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Sign LHP Jamie Moyer to a 1 year, $500,000 contract.
The Rationale
The Mariners are in something of a tough spot. Coming off a miserable season, they have to improve the roster to avoid alienating the fan base stem the erosion of season ticket sales, but with a good Texas team to catch and Anaheim poised to spend a ton of money this winter, contending for the division title in 2011 is probably too much to ask. There’s just too much ground to make up in one winter to get on an even playing field with the Rangers, not to mention trying to overcome an Angels team that could land both Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre this winter.
So, the team needs to make moves that improve the roster, but that also fit into a longer term picture. They’re not in the position to be using prospects in trade to upgrade the major league team, and they don’t have enough money to spend to land a marquee free agent. They also need to make sure that they keep opportunities free for the young talent that is nearly major league ready without putting out a team full of rookies that will lose 100 games again. It’s a tough balancing act, there are pieces that the team can go after that would be able to help the team in both 2011 and beyond. That’s what I’ve tried to emphasize with these moves. Let’s take them one at a time.
Trading David Aardsma is the most obvious move of the winter, and now that they’ve declined Jose Lopez’s option, moving him becomes the second most obvious move. I’ve killed two birds with one stone by trading them away in the same deal. Kevin Towers has made it clear that he has two priorities as the new GM of the Diamondbacks this winter – improve their bullpen and fix the offenses contact problems. Aardsma gives them a fairly low cost closer, while Lopez offers a player who can replace some of Mark Reynolds power with about 150 fewer strikeouts per season, as they are likely to ship out Reynolds this winter. He’d be a decent fit in Seattle if the M’s could unload Chone Figgins, but I don’t see how to make that happen, so for now we just settle on giving Arizona their replacement and their ninth inning guy.
In exchange, the Mariners acquire a couple of useful role players. Gillespie is a classic fourth outfielder in the making, as a guy with no premium tools but decent skills across the board. He draws some walks, has gap power, runs okay, and plays a decent corner outfield, but he’s probably best served as a part-time player. He’d be a perfect fit to share time with Michael Saunders in left and offer some low cost outfield depth with a little bit of upside. Roberts is a utility infielder with a little bit of pop in his bat who had a good 2009 season but flopped last year. Both are cheap role players who fill needs, and given that neither Aardsma nor Lopez have a ton of trade value, this is about what you can expect for the pair. They’re useful pieces that the team needs, and that’s good enough considering what the Mariners are giving up.
They won’t fix the offense, of course, and for the addition of some thump into the line-up, we turn to the free agent market. Lance Berkman is my preferred DH candidate, offering the best package of multiple years of production without a huge cost. He’s going to be 35 next year and is coming off the worst year of his career, but there are reasons to think he’s a good bounce back candidate – his drop in power coincided with a wrist injury that should be healed by next year, and nearly all of his other skills remained equal to his 2009 season when he posted a .386 wOBA.
He wants a full time job and the opportunity to play the field at times, and the Mariners can offer him both, as he could split time with Justin Smoak and hit cleanup on a daily basis. He provides a patient, switch-hitting bat who could take advantage of Safeco’s friendly right field porch, and gives you some depth at first base in case Smoak flops or gets hurt. Going two years may seem risky for a guy his age, but it’s worth the risk to get Berkman in the M’s line-up. If he rebounds, he’ll easily be worth the money and give the team a legitimate cleanup hitter for both 2011 and 2012.
Berkman’s not the only guy we’re handing a two year contract to, however. The other investment I’m making this winter is in the rotation, which is full of question marks once you get past Felix. In order to give the team another quality arm who will love what pitching in Safeco Field will do for his numbers, I turn to Jeff Francis, who was set free by the Rockies when they declined his $7 million option for 2011. Francis has had a reasonably solid career considering he’s spent it pitching in Coors Field, and as a British Columbia kid, would almost certainly welcome the chance to move to a park near his hometown that is paradise on earth for left-handed pitch-to-contact starters.
Francis is, in many ways, similar to Jason Vargas. They’re both soft-tossing lefties who have excellent change-ups and plus command, and while neither is a big strikeout pitcher, they have good enough stuff to miss bats when they have to. Obviously, we’ve seen how well Vargas has flourished in Safeco (like many others before him), and Francis would likely receive a similar benefit from the park. He’s now two years removed from shoulder surgery that cost him all of the 2009 season and limited him to just over 100 innings pitched last year, but his stuff is most of the way back and he actually posted the lowest xFIP of his career last year. He can provide solid innings as a middle of the rotation starter, and should be the kind of starter that the M’s can acquire without paying too high of a price.
The rest of the moves are stopgap fillers for 2011, as the team simply needs to plug some holes while waiting for kids to develop. Nick Punto is a terrific defensive infielder who can play second base until Dustin Ackley is ready, provide an alternative to Jack Wilson when he’s on the DL or traded, and serve as a quality backup infielder when not in the line-up. He’s a slap-hitter with no power, but he’s also legitimately one of the best defenders in the game, and would give Ackley a great example to learn from. His lack of offense will keep his price in the range that the Mariners can afford, and while I’m sure most of you are tired of guys who can’t hit, he’s the best option the team has for the role.
Mark Hendrickson gives the team a cheap quality left-handed setup guy who will be underrated because of an inflated ERA from last year. His peripherals are still fine, and he’s a perfect capable lefty out of the pen. With Baltimore declining his option for $1.2 million, he’s sure to come at a modest cost, and would give Eric Wedge some experience in what would otherwise be a very young bullpen.
Gregg Zaun fills the role of backup catcher, and provides a few benefits – he’s a switch-hitter, has a little bit of power, and as a 40-year-old, he won’t be complaining about playing second fiddle to Adam Moore. There are a number of candidates for the veteran backup catcher role, but Zaun is my favorite and fits in the budget.
We talked about Moyer earlier this week. He’s a perfect fit in the long relief/6th starter role, and if he wants to pitch in MLB next year, this is probably his best bet.
Is it the kind of offseason that will put the Mariners back into the mix for the AL West? No, but I’m not sure that is possible anyway. What it does give the team is a good chance for a .500 season (this roster projects out to about an 80 win team or so) while adding a couple of pieces that could still be useful in 2012. It gives the kids a chance to play while not making the team a disaster if they fail, and maintains most of the financial flexibility the team will get following next year, when Milton Bradley, Carlos Silva, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jack Wilson come off the books.
The reality is that this team won’t be good again until Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, and Michael Pineda are ready to be core pieces. That won’t happen this year, but this roster would give the team the ability to let all three get their feet wet in the big leagues while hopefully winning enough games to avoid everyone getting fired again.