Rainiers on TV again
David Pauley takes the mound for the Rainiers tonight, and with no Mariners game, it will be on FSN at 7 pm. Tune in if you’re interested in seeing some baseball. There’s even the exciting chance that you might see Michael Pineda sitting on the bench eating seeds. That’s tough to top.
Minor League Wrap (6/14-20/10)
Everett did indeed start play on Friday, but you won’t see them below here because three games is just not enough to work with, so I’ll do a week and a half of Aquasox next week and most of a week of Pulaski, which starts on Tuesday. I’ll have a roster preview for them when I get it. Peoria starts today, but if you weren’t around last season, I just update some interesting statlines for the week rather than looking at individual games because the climate is too much of a mess to make any meaningful conclusions about what’s happening.
To the jump!
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Pineda to Tacoma
I could have held off until tomorrow, but it might as well be mentioned now that RHP Michael Pineda is in Tacoma according to Mike Curto and will be taking the mound in the Salt Lake City series.
From a practical standpoint, it makes sense because the Rainiers are going to be playing six games in a four-day span thanks to some earlier weather cancellations. We can also justify it from the Mariners’ perspective because the first half is over for the D-Jaxx and Pineda will probably be part of the team’s near-term future, so they might as well keep a close eye on him and give the local fans a taste of what’s to come. If it all goes well for him and he doesn’t run into any trouble or pass any alarming innings milestones, there’s a chance he makes a few appearances with the Mariners in September, since he needs to be added to the 40-man in the offseason.
From a fan standpoint, you should all go see him. Pineda is the best starting prospect we have in the system by a pretty good margin. He throws a low-to-mid 90s fastball, has a good grasp of what do with his change-up (though he doesn’t use it enough), and even without a tremendous slider, he was still leading the D-Jaxx with 78 Ks in 77.0 innings. His command is so good that he’s only walked four in 26.2 innings this month. When he’s healthy, he’s really, really good.
Since he started on Friday, the usual five-day rest schedule would put him on pace to take the mound again on Wednesday, barring any decisions on the Rainiers’ part to throw him in for one of the doubleheaders to lower expectations in his first outing. I’ll keep you posted if that changes any.
Game 69, Reds at Mariners
RR-S vs. Harang after a couple of hard acts to follow.
RF Ichiro!
2B Figgins
DH Bradley
3B Lopez
CF Gutierrez
SS Josh Wilson
1B Carp
C Alfonzo
LF Saunders
Jack Wilson was activated today, after a Tacoma stint where he was hitting pretty well and was even attempting to steal a few bases. Now the Mariners are going to have to decide whether to play him or occasionally intriguing Josh Wilson and oh my goodness this is one of the more interesting things we have to talk about regarding this team. Tui goes back to Tacoma to work more on defense or something.
We also found out today that Ian Snell has cleared waivers and accepted his outright assignment to Tacoma. A guy that once struck out 177 in 208.0 innings while running an ERA+ of 116 for the Pirates is now roughly on the same level of Jesus Colome and every other reclamation project we had in the past year or so that didn’t pan out. At least we still have Aardsma, right?
Josh Bard has also been seen rehabbing for Tacoma. This is probably good news.
Game 68, Reds at Mariners
Happy Felix Day!
RF Ichiro
2B Figgins
DH Bradley
3B Lopez
CF Gutierrez
SS Josh Wilson
1B Kotchman
C Johnson
LF Saunders
Game 67, Reds at Mariners
And what will the Reds fans do now that Griffey is gone?
Lee vs. Cueto, 7:05 pm PDT
RF Ichiro!
2B Figgins
DH Bradley
3B Lopez
CF Gutierrez
SS Josh Wilson
1B Carp
C Johnson
LF Saunders
Jose Lopez, our #4 hitter is batting .231/.242/.354 this month, with most of his hits coming in the early part of June. I am strangely numb to such revelations about our lineup. That Carp is hitting ahead of Saunders just seems funny to me at this point. Hey, Divish says we could activate Sweeney if he feels good after batting practice tonight. Baseball!
Cueto is better than his ERA would lead you to believe. This year, he’s cut the rate at which he’s been giving up home runs to three-quarters what it was last season. He’s also striking out more and giving up fewer walks. Sure, he’s no Cliff Lee, but a pitcher doesn’t have to be to get through our hitters.
M’s Come to Terms with Walker, Ten Others
Divish on the Twitter, pt. 1, pt.2. The second part also notes that Woodinville’s RHP Luke Taylor has spurned his commitment to Hawaii to sign with the hometown team. Considering we’ve poached three players off their incoming class, the Rainbows must really hate us now. A press release also lists RHP Tyler Burgoon (10th), 3B/1B Stefen Romero (12th), LHP Jason Markovitz (13th), RHP Jandy Sena (23rd), C Andrew Giobbi (32nd), OF Ethan Paquette (35th), RHP Joshua Krist (39th), C Billy Marcoe (41st), and RHP Tim Boyce (44th). Marcoe’s been long rumored as being on the way to Everett too. Walker will be at Safeco later today.
That Walker signed at all shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. Certain people were concerned that with so much more press on him as a potential D-1 recruit for basketball, he was still more focused on that than baseball these days, despite his own comments in interviews to the contrary. Signing him was probably the easy part. Getting him to learn how to pitch like a natural will be a little trickier.
That brings us to another point, which is that of all the M’s vaunted top four picks, he was probably the easiest sign. Paxton, who’s tied to Boras, may take a little while, but given that he’s without much leverage, has an offer from his “hometown” team, and the track record is not great for indy league draftees, I’d say it gets done. More difficult will probably be Littlewood, who had agreed to play at San Diego, and Stanek, who has the commitment to Arkansas. I see Stanek as maybe being the toughest one. That’s not even touching on later picks like Jordan Shipers, who are wild cards at the moment.
We’re making progress, and still have a lot of work to do before August 15th.
Rainiers Game Thread, 6/17/10
Got to do something on the off day, right? Why not listen to Mike Curto? Game starts at 6:05 pm.
LF Ezequiel Carrera
SS Jack Wilson
1B Brad Nelson
DH Tommy Everidge
2B Jack Hannahan
CF Gregory Halman
C Guillermo Quiroz
RF Mike Wilson
3B Matt Mangini
P Andy Baldwin
That’s a different looking lineup. Mainly for Mangini being so low, and also the Jack Wilson factor.
Some minor league notes:
* 6th-round pick C Keanu Carmichael signed for $150k a day or two ago.
* Adam Moore’s rehab stint has been shut down.
* LHP Mauricio Robles gave up four runs in the first inning of a game against Chattanooga. The Diamond Jaxx are two games out of first with three left to play in the half.
* The Aquasox start their season in Salem-Keizer tomorrow.
Brandon League
My latest post is up over at Brock and Salk’s blog, dealing with Brandon League’s pitch selection and his disappointing performance so far this year. Check it out if you’d like.
We won’t be doing my radio gig this week, though, as I’ll be on an airplane, and I won’t be around much the next few days. If the team does something drastic, I’ll figure out a way to get a post up, but otherwise, you’ll be in good hands with Jay, Marc, and JH for the weekend.
Mariners and NERDs
Before we get to the post, you’ll notice a new name up there in the heading. This is the first post here at USSM by Carson Cistulli, who is part of our crew over at FanGraphs, and one of the most unique voices writing about the game today. He’s not a Mariner fan, so he’ll be the first outsider to ever be part of the site, but he has some interesting insights on the game and a writing style that will hopefully remind you of the departed (and sorely missed) DMZ.
Carson will be contributing here once a week, and I think he’ll add something new that the site hasn’t had before. I hope you enjoy his work, and if you don’t, well, keep it to yourself, because I became a fan of Carson’s on the night that he engaged my wife in conversation for several hours to distract her from the fact that she was at dinner with ten of the nerdiest guys on the planet. He’s a good guy, and I’m really happy he’s agreed to contribute here.
First, I want to say this: Hello, USS Mariner community. I enter your site as humbly as possible and with an awareness of what you and your keepers have created here. It’s a great place, and I’m honored to contribute.
Second, below is a piece I submit for your consideration and/or enjoyment. Hopefully both. Thank you.
One of my primary concerns as a baseball writer is exploring that place where quantitative analysis and aesthetics meet. Contrary to the popular fallacy that baseball nerds hate watching the game and only feel comfortable in the warm embrace of their little spreadsheets, there are reasons to believe that baseball nerds actually begin wandering down the path of quantitative analysis because they love watching baseball so much.
Even so lofty a figure as Bill Simmons has recently seen the wisdom in such thinking.
In my work at FanGraphs — much of which I publish when editor Dave Cameron is sleeping, in hopes he doesn’t notice — I have sought to understand what it is, exactly, about advanced stats that you and me and everyone we know finds so exciting.
The most recent episode in this quixotic journey has found yours truly attempting to answer a challenge issued by Rob Neyer — a challenge, that is, to develop a points system that would inform the fan of what game(s) might be most aesthetically pleasing on any given night.
I’m quoting myself when I say these two things:
1. It’s a big-ish task, this, to devise a points system for every possible aspect (pitching, hitting, uniform design, stadium, broadcast team, etc.) that might contribute to the viewing experience.
2. Despite the verity of point 1, it seems as though we can say with some certainty that pitching matchups — because the pitchers are constantly playing — go the greatest way towards making a game either compelling or not. Therefore, that’s where I’ve elected to start.
Thus it was, in a recent post at FanGraphs, that I introduced NERD — i.e. a number that attempts to bring together certain pitching components of interest to the baseball nerd in one tidy number, on a 0-10 scale.
The original components of NERD, alternately weighted, were:
• Pitcher Ability (xFIP)
• Strikeouts (SwStrk%)
• Strike Throwing (Strike% of Total Pitches Thrown)
• Luck (ERA-xFIP)
In the meantime — in response to reader feedback and the faculty of common sense — I’ve also added:
• Velocity (Average MPH of Fastball)
• Pitcher Age (Youth and Whatever Jamie Moyer Is)
What I want to tell you in this post is where your Seattle Mariners rate and why. In what follows, I include each of the Mariner starters for the season so far (minus young Luke French) and then anticipate — and answer — three or so questions a Mariner fan might have about the NERD score in question.
Boo-yah:
Cliff LEE (10)
Why am I not surprised?
Because Cliff Lee is really good. He’s second among qualified pitchers in xFIP. He throws way more strikes than everyone else. That makes him awesome.
If I pray hard enough, will Cliff Lee magically stay with the Mariners for zero dollars?
Unfortunately, no. Sorry.
Please?!?
Sorry, dude. Cliff Lee wants to make that paper.
– – –
Felix HERNANDEZ (9)
Hey, how come he’s not a 10?
For two reasons. One, because only 6 of 163 pitchers have perfect 10s. Two, because his strike rate (63.4%) is basically league-average (62.5% or thereabouts) at the moment.
Doesn’t his youth help him?
Yes, he gets a one-point bonus for being 24.
What about how he has a cool nickname?
Unfortunately, that’s not something that’s part of NERD at the moment.
– – –
Doug FISTER (4)
That seems a little harsh. What’s the deal?
It’s true, Fister has a decent xFIP (4.23), but he neither gets whiffs (about a standard deviation below the mean) nor does he throw as many strikes as you might think (64.9% of pitches).
That last point is ridiculous. He only walks 1.29 per nine innings.
True, but walks probably have more to do with the percentage of balls in the zone. Fister ranks more highly there.
How the frig is that different?
Better pitchers can generate swings on pitches outside the zone. Like, Cliff Lee has the fifth-highest O-Swing% among pitchers on the NERD list (that is, starters with 20+ IP). Fister is like 67th of 163.
– – –
Jason VARGAS (3)
Hey, you’re doing the same thing to him that you did to Fister.
Actually, they’re pretty different. Yeah, Vargas’s walk total is pretty low (just 2.58 BB/9), but he actually gets a pretty decent amount of swinging strikes.
I already know that. I’m a Mariner fan, duh.
Oh, yeah. Sorry.
But seriously, what gives with Vargas?
His ERA (3.05) is pretty far below his xFIP (4.90). That xFIP’s not too great, man.
– – –
Ryan ROWLAND-SMITH (0)
Man, that’s not too good.
Yeah, he’s got a 5.88 xFIP. That’s not really helping him out.
What about how he’s Australian and has a hyphen in his surname?
He should try and have a groundball rate above 33% instead.
I don’t think it works like that.
You’re probably right.
– – –
Ian SNELL (0)
How come I’m not surprised?
Probably because you’ve had to watch Ian Snell pitch a whole bunch. My condolences.