Mariners and NERDs
Before we get to the post, you’ll notice a new name up there in the heading. This is the first post here at USSM by Carson Cistulli, who is part of our crew over at FanGraphs, and one of the most unique voices writing about the game today. He’s not a Mariner fan, so he’ll be the first outsider to ever be part of the site, but he has some interesting insights on the game and a writing style that will hopefully remind you of the departed (and sorely missed) DMZ.
Carson will be contributing here once a week, and I think he’ll add something new that the site hasn’t had before. I hope you enjoy his work, and if you don’t, well, keep it to yourself, because I became a fan of Carson’s on the night that he engaged my wife in conversation for several hours to distract her from the fact that she was at dinner with ten of the nerdiest guys on the planet. He’s a good guy, and I’m really happy he’s agreed to contribute here.
First, I want to say this: Hello, USS Mariner community. I enter your site as humbly as possible and with an awareness of what you and your keepers have created here. It’s a great place, and I’m honored to contribute.
Second, below is a piece I submit for your consideration and/or enjoyment. Hopefully both. Thank you.
One of my primary concerns as a baseball writer is exploring that place where quantitative analysis and aesthetics meet. Contrary to the popular fallacy that baseball nerds hate watching the game and only feel comfortable in the warm embrace of their little spreadsheets, there are reasons to believe that baseball nerds actually begin wandering down the path of quantitative analysis because they love watching baseball so much.
Even so lofty a figure as Bill Simmons has recently seen the wisdom in such thinking.
In my work at FanGraphs — much of which I publish when editor Dave Cameron is sleeping, in hopes he doesn’t notice — I have sought to understand what it is, exactly, about advanced stats that you and me and everyone we know finds so exciting.
The most recent episode in this quixotic journey has found yours truly attempting to answer a challenge issued by Rob Neyer — a challenge, that is, to develop a points system that would inform the fan of what game(s) might be most aesthetically pleasing on any given night.
I’m quoting myself when I say these two things:
1. It’s a big-ish task, this, to devise a points system for every possible aspect (pitching, hitting, uniform design, stadium, broadcast team, etc.) that might contribute to the viewing experience.
2. Despite the verity of point 1, it seems as though we can say with some certainty that pitching matchups — because the pitchers are constantly playing — go the greatest way towards making a game either compelling or not. Therefore, that’s where I’ve elected to start.
Thus it was, in a recent post at FanGraphs, that I introduced NERD — i.e. a number that attempts to bring together certain pitching components of interest to the baseball nerd in one tidy number, on a 0-10 scale.
The original components of NERD, alternately weighted, were:
• Pitcher Ability (xFIP)
• Strikeouts (SwStrk%)
• Strike Throwing (Strike% of Total Pitches Thrown)
• Luck (ERA-xFIP)
In the meantime — in response to reader feedback and the faculty of common sense — I’ve also added:
• Velocity (Average MPH of Fastball)
• Pitcher Age (Youth and Whatever Jamie Moyer Is)
What I want to tell you in this post is where your Seattle Mariners rate and why. In what follows, I include each of the Mariner starters for the season so far (minus young Luke French) and then anticipate — and answer — three or so questions a Mariner fan might have about the NERD score in question.
Boo-yah:
Cliff LEE (10)
Why am I not surprised?
Because Cliff Lee is really good. He’s second among qualified pitchers in xFIP. He throws way more strikes than everyone else. That makes him awesome.
If I pray hard enough, will Cliff Lee magically stay with the Mariners for zero dollars?
Unfortunately, no. Sorry.
Please?!?
Sorry, dude. Cliff Lee wants to make that paper.
– – –
Felix HERNANDEZ (9)
Hey, how come he’s not a 10?
For two reasons. One, because only 6 of 163 pitchers have perfect 10s. Two, because his strike rate (63.4%) is basically league-average (62.5% or thereabouts) at the moment.
Doesn’t his youth help him?
Yes, he gets a one-point bonus for being 24.
What about how he has a cool nickname?
Unfortunately, that’s not something that’s part of NERD at the moment.
– – –
Doug FISTER (4)
That seems a little harsh. What’s the deal?
It’s true, Fister has a decent xFIP (4.23), but he neither gets whiffs (about a standard deviation below the mean) nor does he throw as many strikes as you might think (64.9% of pitches).
That last point is ridiculous. He only walks 1.29 per nine innings.
True, but walks probably have more to do with the percentage of balls in the zone. Fister ranks more highly there.
How the frig is that different?
Better pitchers can generate swings on pitches outside the zone. Like, Cliff Lee has the fifth-highest O-Swing% among pitchers on the NERD list (that is, starters with 20+ IP). Fister is like 67th of 163.
– – –
Jason VARGAS (3)
Hey, you’re doing the same thing to him that you did to Fister.
Actually, they’re pretty different. Yeah, Vargas’s walk total is pretty low (just 2.58 BB/9), but he actually gets a pretty decent amount of swinging strikes.
I already know that. I’m a Mariner fan, duh.
Oh, yeah. Sorry.
But seriously, what gives with Vargas?
His ERA (3.05) is pretty far below his xFIP (4.90). That xFIP’s not too great, man.
– – –
Ryan ROWLAND-SMITH (0)
Man, that’s not too good.
Yeah, he’s got a 5.88 xFIP. That’s not really helping him out.
What about how he’s Australian and has a hyphen in his surname?
He should try and have a groundball rate above 33% instead.
I don’t think it works like that.
You’re probably right.
– – –
Ian SNELL (0)
How come I’m not surprised?
Probably because you’ve had to watch Ian Snell pitch a whole bunch. My condolences.
Game 66, Mariners at Cardinals
Vargas vs Garcia, 5:05 pm.
As the M’s play the final game in their 20 games in 20 days stretch, Wak has either admitted the season is over or has decided that his regulars need a break. Both are true, actually, so either way, the line-up changes make some sense, though of course the batting order is still crazy. I imagine flyballing Vargas would prefer to have Gutierrez out in center field tonight as well. Oh well, in the end, none of it matters anymore.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Bradley, LF
Lopez, 3B
Josh Wilson, SS
Langerhans, 1B
Alfonzo, C
Saunders, CF
Vargas, P
2010 Everett Aquasox Preview
I’m not hot on writing Aquasox previews, because as much as love games at Everett Memorial, I realize that this early in the season, the roster is only going to feature guys who signed quickly, lesser short-season entries from last year, and various players promoted from Venezuela or the Dominican Republic. That’s this roster in a nutshell, but on top of that it also lacks a bit of star power that you’d ordinarily expect from the Latin American entries, fewer early round signings, and the most interesting player on the whole team is probably the closer. Nonetheless, this is what we have to work with for the moment, and I’ll note changes as the wraps get rolling with them. Who knows, the team might end up being good later on. Let’s get to it then…
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Game 65, Mariners at Cardinals
Rowland-Smith vs Suppan, 5:05 pm.
Believe it or not, RRS has a better ERA than his opponent by over a full run. Yeah, this isn’t exactly a stellar pitching match-up. Both Suppan (5.06 xFIP) and Hyphen (5.82 xFIP) are better than their ERA, but that’s kind of like saying that an enema is better than kidney stones. This is an ugly match-up.
In not-surprising-at-all news, Ian Snell was designated for assignment today, and the Mariners purchased the contract of Brian Sweeney to take his spot in the bullpen. Sweeney’s not any kind of prospect, but he does one thing that Snell does not do, and that’s throw strikes. His stuff isn’t great, but he pounds the zone, and that will at least endear him to the coaching staff more than the guy he’s replacing.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Kotchman, 1B
Johnson, C
Rowland-Smith, P
Trading Cliff Lee
This post deals with where Lee might end up. If you’re interested in what his trade value is, check out this post at FanGraphs.
With the season basically over and focus shifting to the future, there’s one obvious big story left in this season – what will the Mariners get for Cliff Lee?
This is essentially the last drama of 2010 for Mariners fans. At some point in the next six weeks, the Mariners will trade Lee. Don’t buy into the smokescreen about keeping him around for the draft picks – at least one team will step up and make an offer that gives Jack Zduriencik significantly more value than he will get from keeping Lee and letting him walk at the end of the season.
Who will that team be? Well, the easiest way to guess is good old process of elimination. First, let’s throw out all the obvious non-contenders – that eliminates Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, both Chicagos, Washington, Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Arizona. Lee won’t be going to any of those teams.
Among the teams that are currently contenders, let’s cross off cities where Lee doesn’t make sense – Tampa Bay, Florida, Colorado, Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Diego, Toronto, Philadelphia, Oakland, and San Francisco fall into that category. If any of those teams are buyers in July, they’ll be buying someone else.
That leaves the teams that could potentially be interested in Lee – both New Yorks, Boston, Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, both Los Angeles’, and St. Louis. Those are your ten potential destinations for Cliff Lee.
So, who’s the best fit? Well, as we talked about last week, the Mariners have a lot of holes on their 2011 roster, and they don’t have a lot of ways to fill those holes with limited budget space this winter. The Lee trade is going to be their best bet to get a player or two who they can slide right into next year’s team, and who could be a productive player almost immediately. I don’t think the M’s are going to be hunting for a bevy of A-ball prospects in this deal, no matter what their upside is – the emphasis is going to be on getting someone (or a couple of someones) who can get to Seattle in a hurry.
That makes St. Louis pretty unlikely. They simply don’t have a high level premium prospect to give up that will make the Mariners pull the trigger. You could probably say the same about Detroit and the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s tough to imagine any of those three teams being able to put together a package of players that the Mariners would really fall in love with. There are good prospects in each system, but they’re not the right kinds of prospects, and there aren’t enough of them.
Of the remaining six, I’d call Boston a pretty big longshot as well. Theo has consistently sat out of big pitcher sweepstakes, determining the cost was more than he wants to pay in young talent. The Red Sox farm system isn’t in great shape either, so their only hope to get Jack Z to listen would be to include someone like Casey Kelly, who they’ve been adamant that they’re not trading. Their pitching staff is pretty good anyway. I just don’t see it happening, though it potentially could, so they go to the bottom of the final six.
Coming in not too far ahead of the Red Sox in the longshot category would be both AL West teams – the Rangers and Angels. While both could really use Lee in their rotation and have the chips to make an interesting offer, inter-division trades of this magnitude are pretty rare. Teams are generally loathe to give their competitors players who can come back and hurt them long term. While both teams would love to have Lee, they don’t want their star prospects beating them 19 times a year for the next six years. It might not be rational, but it’s how baseball works, and it makes it unlikely that the M’s will deal Lee to another AL West team.
So now, we’re down to three – the New Yorks and Minnesota. Last week’s speculation from Ken Rosenthal about Lee’s eventual destination has made a lot of people assume that the Yankees are the favorites, but I’d make them the least likely of this trio, honestly. It’s fine and dandy to suggest that Lee would make any rotation better, and while its true, its less true with the Yankees than any other team in baseball. Right now, their playoff rotation is Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte-Hughes. Yeah, they could put Lee in the rotation and bump Hughes back to the pen to strengthen their relief corps, but is that the kind of upgrade that is going to make a big enough difference for Brian Cashman to give up a blue chip prospect? And we haven’t even mentioned Javier Vazquez, whom the Yankees liked enough to give up one of their top young arms for this winter. They’re not just going to discard any chance of him pitching meaningful innings in November no matter how badly he started the season.
So, really, I see two teams that make sense on most levels – the Mets and the Twins.
The Mets have the glaring need, with only three big league starters on their roster and a GM whose job is almost certainly on the line. Omar Minaya has shown a willingness to give up a bushel of prospects for an arm he believes could put him over the top, as he did when he traded Lee (along with Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips) to Cleveland for Bartolo Colon. The Mets have spent a lot of money to try and win, and yet, they are one starting pitcher short of being a legitimate contender. Lee would give them a real chance at grabbing the NL East title and playing well in October. And in Jenrry Mejia, they have the kind of dynamic young pitching prospect who the Mariners would see as a valuable long term piece who could also potentially be part of the 2011 rotation. The Mets could put together a strong offer for Lee built around Mejia. There’s a potential deal to be made there.
However, if I’m Jack Zduriencik, I’m praying every night that the Twins get heavily involved. The fit is almost perfect.
Lee is everything the Twins love in a pitcher. They groom a never ending supply of strike throwers who get outs despite not having big velocity, and Lee is the quintessential version of that kind of arm. Paired with Francisco Liriano, the Twins become a lethal post-season team. And, they have what the 2011 Mariners need – young, cheap, major league ready starting pitching.
The Twins could create a package for Lee built around either Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey that would certainly pique the Mariners interest. Rather than getting a prospect that you hope develops into something, the Mariners would be able to slide either of them right into the middle of their rotation, filling a big hole on the 2011 roster but providing future value as well. In addition, the Twins have a quality young catching prospect named Wilson Ramos who doesn’t have a future in Minneapolis thanks to the presence of Joe Mauer, and while he’s not that much different than Adam Moore, he’d offer the M’s another option at a position that has been a huge problem since Jack got to Seattle. A package of Ramos and a second prospect, along with either Slowey or Baker, is the kind of deal that the Mariners simply couldn’t turn down.
The Twins have the depth to make that kind of move without crippling their future, and could capitalize on the primes of Mauer and Morneau with a legitimate World Series run with Cliff Lee in their rotation. It makes the most sense of any deal possible. Lee was made to pitch for the Twins, and they have exactly the kinds of players that the Mariners are going to want in return.
So, don’t be surprised if Lee ends up in pinstripes this fall, but not the Bronx version. Lee to Minnesota makes sense on a lot of levels, and you have to think that both teams see the same things we do. There’s a win-win deal here where both teams benefit, and that’s why I’d put Minnesota as the favorites to land Cliff Lee this summer.
Game 64, Mariners at Cardinals
French vs Wainwright, 4:09 pm.
Welcome to the rotation, Mr. French – now meet Mr. Pujols. Good luck.
In a single game, anything can happen, but this is something like the mismatch to end all mismatches. Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the Mariners are extremely unlikely to get much in the way of offense against him. Meanwhile, Luke French has to use his pitch-to-contact approach to try and get guys like Pujols, Matt Holiday, and Ryan Ludwick out. This could get really ugly.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Carp, 1B
Johnson, C
French, P
Minor League Wrap (6/7-13/10)
Just so everyone has it on their calendars, the Aquasox season starts on Friday (homestand starts on Monday). I should have a preview up that morning, if not a little earlier.
To the jump!
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Game 63, Mariners at Padres
Richard vs Hernandez, 1:05 pm.
Happy (?) Felix Day.
Yeah, I got nothing.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Carp, 1B
Johnson, C
Hernandez, P
Game 62, Mariners at Padres
Lee vs LeBlanc, 5:35 pm.
Cliff Lee takes the mound for the Mariners, so they have a chance to win. They’ve pummeled Wade LeBlanc before, but Petco helps him a lot.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Carp, 1B
Rob Green, C
Lee, P
Game 61, Mariners at Padres
Vargas vs Correia, 7:05 pm.
At least San Diego is physically incapable of scoring 10 runs in a game. Petco should at least keep this one close, which will be a nice change of pace from the last few days.
Line-up experiments come to an end.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 2B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Kotchman, 1B
Alfonzo, C
Vargas, P