The 2011 Mariners
2010 is in the books at this point. Yes, miracles can happen, and the team theoretically could rip off 65 wins and steal the division title by a hair, but you can’t make decisions based on the expectation of a miracle, and the Mariners have some decisions to make. When a season is a lost cause, the silver lining is the chance to take a look at some guys who wouldn’t get a real shot when a team was trying to win. You can start to look at your roster with an eye towards the following year and try to figure out what you have and what you need. So let’s do just that.
2011 Salary Obligatoins, via Cot’s Contracts:
C: Moore/Johnson – Needs Upgrade.
1B: Carp – Needs Upgrade
2B: Figgins/Ackley – No Move Necessary
SS: Wilson/Wilson – Question Mark
3B: Lopez/Figgins – Question Mark
LF: Saunders – Question Mark
CF: Gutierrez – No Move Necessary
RF: Ichiro – No Move Necessary
DH: Bradley – Question Mark
Bench: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#1: Felix Hernandez – No Move Necessary
#2: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#3: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#4: Doug Fister – No Move Necessary
#5: Jason Vargas – No Move Necessary
CL: David Aardsma – Question Mark
Setup: Brandon League – No Move Necessary
Setup: Shawn Kelley – No Move Necessary
Setup: Mark Lowe – Question Mark
Middle: Ryan Rowland-Smith – Question Mark
Middle: Empty – Question Mark
Long: Luke French – No Move Necessary
Out of 25 roster spots, we’re not even able to label 10 of them as positions that the club doesn’t need to worry about filling. That’s not good, especially considering that the team is not going to have much money to spend this winter. Current obligations for 2010 come to just under $70 million, and that doesn’t include salaries for any of the arbitration eligible guys the team will want back – most notably, Jason Vargas, David Aardsma, Brandon League, Mark Lowe, and Ryan Rowland-Smith. Based on expected raises, you have to pencil that group in for somewhere around $10 million.
That gives the team an $80 million payroll before they go shopping. We have to assume the budget will be in the low $90 millions again next year, giving the team just over $10 million to spend. That doesn’t go very far when you need two starting pitchers, a starting first baseman, a catcher who can play at least half the time, a whole new bench, possibly a designated hitter, and maybe another arm in the bullpen.
Jack Zduriencik is not going to be able to go out and fix all of this team’s problems in free agency. He might not be able to fix any of them in free agency. This team is going to have to make some shrewd trades and get production from low salary guys. There aren’t many in the high minors ready to step in and contribute, so they’re going to have to be acquired from other sources. And that’s where the rest of this season can give the Mariners a leg up.
There are quite a few players kicking around Triple-A who could potentially help the Mariners next year, but need a shot to show what they can do in the big leagues. The Mariners now have approximately four months to give those guys an audition. The longer they wait, hoping for a miracle, the less time they have to find guys who can stake a claim on next year’s roster. That’s why they shouldn’t sit around and wait until July 31st before they start making moves.
Call the Royals about Kila Ka’aihue (26-year-old 1B/DH hitting .326/.503/.617 in Triple-A), and try to pry away Alex Gordon while you’re at it. See if you can get Trevor Plouffe from Minnesota or Tyler Greene from St. Louis to offer another young, cheap option at shortstop. Give Chris Resop a shot to show what he can do on the mound. These are the kinds of players the team will need production from in 2011, and they don’t have enough good internal options to give the kids from Tacoma a shot. Mike Carp is not good enough to be this team’s first baseman next year – not if they want to try to win. Garrett Olson isn’t going to fill one of the holes in the rotation. These guys are serviceable role players at best, and this is a roster that needs more than that.
The organization has a lot of work to do if they want to be a contender next year. They can’t wait until the off-season to go to work. They should start tomorrow. 2010 is officially over, and the team is now playing for 2011.
Game 60, Mariners at Rangers
Rowland-Smith vs Hunter, 5:05 pm.
Starting today, we shift. For the first two months, I’ve used this space to comment on the line-ups, the match-ups, the teams chances of winning, and their relative place in the standings. None of that matters anymore. It’s now big picture time, as everything revolves around the teams that they can put on the field in 2011 and beyond. The day to day stuff… it’s just not important.
Ichiro, DH
Langerhans, RF
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Josh Wilson, SS
Carp, 1B
Johnson, C
Saunders, LF
Figgins, 2B
A Replacement For Ian Snell
Update: Resop’s line in his final AAA start: 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K. Yeah, he’s worth a shot.
I think everyone agrees that Ian Snell‘s usefulness to the Mariners has passed. He’s pitching worse than ever, and with a $6.5 million team option for 2011 that is surely not to be picked up, he has no future in Seattle. He’s just taking up a roster spot at this point, and the team is best served releasing him and giving those innings to someone who may help the team going forward.
Here’s my suggestion for Snell’s roster spot – Chris Resop. You may not know much about him, so here’s some background information.
The Marlins used their 4th round selection in 2001 on Resop, then an outfielder, but converted him to the mound in 2003 in order to capitalize on his big arm. He dominated the lower minors out of the bullpen on his way up the ladder, but struggled in the majors in his rookie season of 2005. The Marlins eventually traded him to the Angels in 2006 for Kevin Gregg, where his career went south. He had some arm problems and eventually required elbow surgery in 2007. The Braves picked him off waivers in 2008, hoping his velocity would translate to major league success, but eventually sold his contract to the Hanshin Tigers, where he spent the next year and a half. He didn’t pitch particularly well in Japan, so he returned to the U.S. this year and got a minor league deal with the Braves.
He impressed Atlanta’s staff in spring training so much that they put him in the rotation for Triple-A Gwinnett, and he hasn’t let them down yet. Through his first 12 starts of the season, he’s pitched 64 1/3 innings, walked 27, struck out 73, and is running a 49 percent ground ball rate to boot. He’s been one of the best pitchers in all of minor league baseball, using a power fastball offset with a pretty decent curveball.
So, why would the Braves give him up? Well, his minor league contract contains an out clause on June 15th, which means the Braves will lose him if they don’t put him on the big league roster by next Tuesday. Their rotation is full, and speculation out of Atlanta is that they’ll likely trade him rather than put him in their bullpen. So, he’s probably the most available pitcher in all of the minor leagues
He’s probably not an ace in the making. It’s just 12 starts in Triple-A, after all. He’s shown a pretty big platoon split, so he may struggle to get big league lefties out. But you know what? He’s a 27-year-old with some upside who has just over one year’s worth of major league service time, so whoever gives him a shot will own his rights for five years, and be able to pay him peanuts for the next two or three. He’s the kind of guy that bad teams can take a flyer on and see if it pans out.
If Resop pitches well in the majors, well, then the M’s have another solid arm for 2011. If he doesn’t, then he’s no different than Ian Snell. It’s a no risk move with some upside. Make the move, Mariners.
2010 Season In Review
Jay on KGA
I’ll be making my radio debut this afternoon on Spokane’s 1510 KGA around 5:15 pm, talking about the draft as I am wont to do. Tune in, if you will, but I must warn you beforehand that I don’t speak nearly as fast as Dave does.
Game 59, Mariners at Rangers
Snell vs Wilson, 5:05 pm.
Need some relief from Strasburgmania? West Tennessee is playing a day game today, and Dustin Ackley is 2 for 3 with a double, triple, and a walk. He’s now running a .475 on base percentage since May 1st. The adjustment to wood bats and Double-A might have taken a bit of time, but he’s made it, and he’s doing just fine now.
On to the Mariners line-up, because we have to, I guess.
Ichiro, RF
Bradley, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Josh Wilson, SS
Tuiasosopo, 1B
Alfonzo, C
Saunders, LF
Figgins, 2B
In Defense Of Wak
In a season of disappointments and struggles, no one has taken more of a beating than second year manager Don Wakamatsu. The manager is always an easy target to blame when a team starts losing, so its no surprise that the reactionary fans who call into sports radio are calling for Wak’s head. That’s just the nature of the beast.
But it doesn’t stop there. We try to be a bit more measured around here, but we’ve criticized a lot of the things Wak has done this year. His bullpen management has been curious at best, disastrous at worst. His line-ups have generally not been anything close to ideal. He’s shown questionable talent evaluation skills, including a far-too-strong emphasis on spring training performance – his infatuation with guys like Matt Tuiasosopo can be easily understood when you realize how much stock the manager has put in March performances the last two years.
However, most managers are going to make curious to bad decisions from time to time. In general, all you can hope for from a field general is that he’s more good than bad and that his players respect him and work hard for him.
It’s that last point that offers potential to be the biggest problem. In the last few weeks, the team has seen Griffey retire with something less than grace after Wak benched him, Ian Snell speak with frustration about his manager’s comments about his tempo, and Chone Figgins publicly push back against the line-up changes that saw him moved down in the order. On their own, none of these things might be all that big of a deal, but there is certainly a growing feeling among those around the team that the clubhouse is anything but the unified fun house we saw a year ago, with a good amount of blame being shoveled Wak’s way in the process.
I’m not saying he’s handled everything perfectly, but I’d like to suggest that it’s highly unfair to lay the perceived ills of the clubhouse at Wak’s feet. He didn’t sign Ken Griffey Jr, who made a lot of statements about being perfectly content playing “any role” on the team but showed that to simply not be true once he was finally removed from a regular job. He didn’t anoint Junior as some kind of sacred cow, a hero to the boys in the locker room who could not be treated as the player that he was – not one worthy of a big league job. And he didn’t cause Milton Bradley, Chone Figgins, Jose Lopez, and Casey Kotchman to hit like Double-A rejects, sinking the offense and the team’s chances at winning in the process.
This entire situation reinforces a point we’ve been making for years; chemistry is a byproduct of winning, not the other way around. The team is losing, so frustrations that would have been washed away in victory celebrations are now coming to the surface. Griffey’s lifeless bat was okay when his teammates were covering for him – once they fell down on the job, his inability to perform became the elephant in the room, and Wak was left with the decision of putting the best team on the field or angering those who worshiped a guy who shouldn’t have had a job in the first place. It took him too long, but he finally made the correct decision, and now he’s taking heat for it.
Wak’s not perfect. I’d probably argue that he’s had as bad of a start to the 2010 season as some of the underperformers in the line-up, and he’s made mistakes that he needs to learn from. But just like we’re not abandoning Michael Saunders as he struggles in his second year on the job, neither should we bail on Don Wakamatsu just because he’s had a rough few months. Instead, the organization needs to learn from yet another failed attempt at winning by chemistry, rather than focusing on putting the best major league roster on the field.
Last year’s leader is this year’s petulant divider. Last year’s joy is this year’s frustration. Rather than trying to fix the clubhouse, the Mariners should focus on fixing the team, and once they’ve done that, the off field stuff will work itself out. The only thing predictable about clubhouse chemistry is that it follows winning around. If you want harmony in the clubhouse, win games.
Wak shares in the blame for why the team hasn’t won games. The clubhouse stuff, though – there’s not much he can do to ease the frustration causing the problems. That will get taken care of when they start playing well again. Or, maybe at this point, if they start playing well again.
Game 58, Mariners at Rangers
Hernandez vs Lewis, 5:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
The M’s hope that Felix can match Lee’s performance from last night and put them back on a winning streak, but I have to say, as much as I love Felix, he’s no Cliff Lee. Holy crap is that guy good.
Line-up the same as last night.
Ichiro, RF
Bradley, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Carp, 1B
Josh Wilson, SS
Johnson, C
Saunders, LF
Figgins, 2B
M’s Select RHP Tyler Burgoon for #312
I said I’d be around for ten rounds and we’re obviously getting into territory not as interesting to people who are not me. Burgoon is a right-hander out of U Michigan. Unlike the other guys selected thus far, he’s not a big Goon, in fact he’s under 5’10, but he throws low-90s and has managed to get up to 95 a time or two with some natural tail away from right-handers, and complements the heater with a great slider. Some outlets had him as a potential top 200 player here. Size and his probable future as a reliever is probably what allowed him to drop this far. If he does stay in the ‘pen, he’s another candidate to move fast. There’s a lot to be intrigued by there.
M’s Tap Woodinville RHP Luke Taylor, #282
Represent, NW. Someone had to aside from the Rays.
At 6’6 and 200 lbs, it’s ridiculous to think that Taylor was at one point a shortstop. Scouts love his mechanics, but as velocity goes, he’s only sitting high-80s at this point. He was thought to have a pretty good commitment to Hawaii, though I’d say the M’s could help talk him out of that. Another guy who’s big on projection and a little short on present ability. It’s a solid pick if we can bring him in. I’m really loving everything we’re doing.