Minor League Wrap (7/20-26/09)
After the poor showing over the weekend with Cleveland in town, perhaps we’ll be focusing more on the future in the coming weeks. Of course, the last time I was saying something like that, it was May, and things got better from there, but May also didn’t have the Angels going on eight-game winning streaks.
To the jump!
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The Washburn To Milwaukee Stuff
As you’ve probably read by now, both Geoff Baker and his Milwaukee counterpart Tom Haudricourt are speculating that the M’s and Brewers could make a deal for Jarrod Washburn as early as tomorrow. His next scheduled start is on Tuesday, and the Brewers don’t currently have a starting pitcher for that day – add in the fact that Brewers GM Doug Melvin has publicly talked about his desire to add an arm despite his unwillingness to give up his top two young players (SS Alcides Escobar and 3B Mat Gamel), which would take him out of the running for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, along with Washburn being from Wisconsin, and you have the recipe for a deal that makes a lot of sense. Plus, there’s that whole Zduriencik-Milwaukee tie which should making trading with the Brewers fairly easy.
Washburn helps Milwaukee a lot more than he helps the M’s. If they’re not going to give up Escobar or Gamel in a bid for one of the Cy Young arms, this is their best fallback plan. And, as we talked about recently, they have depth at SS – the big glaring weakness in the M’s organization. It all fits.
However, don’t count on Hardy coming back for Washburn in a one for one deal (that would just be a horrible move for the Brewers), and don’t expect Alcides Escobar to be coming to Seattle at all. If the Brewers were willing to move Escobar, they’d go get Halladay or Lee, because he’s good enough to headline a package for one of those two. The only reason the Brewers would settle for Washburn is because they were dead set on retaining Escobar. If he’s actually available (and Melvin insists that he’s not), they’ve got bigger fish to fry.
There is likely a deal to be made involving Washburn and stuff for Hardy and stuff, which is what I’d bet on right now. But Escobar? Don’t hold your breath.
By the way, don’t be surprised if Carlos Villanueva is coming back to Seattle in any deal the M’s make with the Brewers. He’s falling out of favor in Milwaukee, thanks to a 6.18 ERA in relief, but his FIP is just 4.22. His fastball is underwhelming, but he throws a bunch of off-speed stuff and has solid command, and he’s got experience in the rotation. He’s the kind of major league arm that the M’s would like to get to replace Washburn, and one that the Brewers would actually be willing to give up.
Game 98, Indians at Mariners
1:10. Cliff Lee v Vargas. Sure would be nice if Lee was pulled before the game so he could be traded somewhere, and the M’s faced someone hastily shoved out of the bullpen.
Here’s the kicker: Baker reports Bedard’s on the DL with shoulder inflammation (which seems to be the M’s injury of choice this year), allowing Vargas to join the active 25-man roster… and in turn means Bedard’s not going anywhere, certainly not ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline, because you can’t trade guys on the DL.
Lineups!
CF-L Sizemore
SS-B Cabrera
RF-L Choo
1B-R Garko
3B-R Peralta
DH-L Hafner
LF-R Francisco
2B-R Carroll
C-R Shoppach
M’s
RF-L Ichiro!
1B-L Branyan
2B-R Lopez
DH-0 Sweeney are you freaking kidding me? This is a joke right?
CF-R Gutierrez
C-R Johjima
3B-L Hannahan
LF-L Saunders
SS-R Cedeno
FREE CHRIS SHELTON
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Earlier this year, I wrote a couple posts about the Sounders. Since then I’ve been thinking about the M’s, Sounders, Seahawks, sports in Seattle generally, and today, with the M’s and Sounders lined up (and me with a last-minute windfall ticket to the Sounders-Fire game), I was going to start putting it all together along with a nice recommendation of the Sounders.
On my ticket, though, there’s this:
The ticket holder will not transmit or aid in transmitting any picture, account or description (whether text, data or visual) in any media now or hereafter existing of all or any part of the Events.
So I’m not supposed to tell you anything, much less throw a picture up (and if anyone took a photo of themselves having a good time, or updated their Facebook status, well, woe to you).
And it’s not that I can’t do it anyway, and tell them to shove off. It’s that now, as petulant as I’m sure this seems, I don’t want to. What a venomous little provision.
Game 97, Indians at Mariners
Bedard vs Sowers, 1:10 PM, no TV
As Derek noted below, this one’s not on TV because the M’s are playing an early game in order to accommodate the city’s request to not compete with the Torchlight Parade, and Fox has national blackout rights for all Saturday day games. Yay, stupid MLB regional territory rules.
Saunders makes his MLB debut as the new starting left fielder.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Sweeney, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Hannahan, 3B
Johnson, C
Saunders, LF
Cedeno, SS
Wlad DFAed, Saunders to MLB
Per Baker and others.
Dave adds: Interesting timing. Saunders has been on fire down in Tacoma of late, but shouldn’t be expected to be such a huge improvement over Langerhans for the rest of this year to make a dramatic difference on the field. This, to me, looks like a move for 2010 – Saunders gets an extended audition so they can get a better idea of what they have in left field going forward. I’d say this is the first sign that the team is shifting its focus away from this season.
As for Wlad, don’t worry about losing him for nothing. He was getting traded this week regardless – this just gets him off the roster sooner. The M’s now have 10 days to trade him or pass him through waivers. There will be enough interest in a young/cheap outfielder with power that they’ll be able to deal him for something. Like, say, Ian Snell?
Many Hands Make Light Work
It’s a common refrain to hear people say that the M’s need another bat or two to be a real contender. The offense is bad, there’s no doubt about that. Their .313 team wOBA is 6th worst in baseball. However, I’d like to suggest that the M’s don’t need to get one big bat – they just need a couple smaller ones.
Let’s compare our offense to the Rangers offense, for instance. They have a .335 wOBA that ranks 10th in baseball. When you adjust for their home park, they come out just a bit above average. If the M’s had the Rangers offense, they’d be right in the thick of things, and we’d be talking about chasing down the Angels over the last two months.
Texas’ offense is led by Nelson Cruz (.380 wOBA), Michael Young (.371 wOBA), and Ian Kinsler (.357 wOBA). Those three have combined to be +34 runs above average on the season. The Mariners offense is led by Russ Branyan (.390 wOBA), Ichiro (.374 wOBA), and Franklin Gutierrez (.350 wOBA). Those three have combined to be +46 runs above average so far this year.
The M’s big three bats have been better than Texas’ big three by a fairly decent margin. The difference between the two isn’t in the quality of the good hitters, but instead in the quality of the bad hitters.
The Rangers have five players who have gotten significant playing time and been below average hitters. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Chris Davis, Taylor Teagardan, Elvis Andrus, and Josh Hamilton have racked up -37.5 runs between them, basically canceling out the work of the top three and giving the Rangers an average offense overall.
The Mariners, on the other hand… the guys who have held down shortstop (Cedeno + Betancourt), catcher (Johnson, Johjima, and Burke), DH (Griffey and Sweeney), third base (Beltre, Woodward, and Hannahan), and left field (Chavez, Balentien, and Langerhans) have almost all been below average. Their combined total: -68.7 runs.
The M’s are 29th in wOBA from shortstop, 29th in wOBA from catcher, 13th (of 14) in wOBA from designated hitter, 30th in wOBA at left field, and 27th in wOBA at third base. The good work done by Ichiro, Gutierrez, and Branyan is wiped out by the lack of offense the team has gotten from these other five spots.
The difference between Texas’ offense and Seattle’s offense isn’t that they have more big bats, but instead that they have little bats that are okay instead of terrible. Omar Vizquel, Hank Blalock, David Murphy, Marlon Byrd – role players who can hit a little bit and won’t sink the offense when they’re on the field. This is what the Mariners are lacking.
The team needed more Ryan Langerhans and less Ronny Cedeno. You can win with average bats playing great defense behind a decent pitching staff. You can’t with with lousy bats playing great defense behind a decent pitching staff. The Mariners simply have too many lousy bats.
The problem spots are catcher, shortstop, and designated hitter. The M’s got good enough value from the gloves at 3B/LF to justify the offensive levels that they got from those positions. The same can’t be said at the other spots. Rob Johnson, for all the talk about how much pitchers love him, doesn’t have enough offense to be the #1 catcher for a playoff team. Ronny Cedeno has done a nice job defending at short, but he’s miscast as anything other than a utility infielder. Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney may have been great for the clubhouse, but they didn’t live up to their end of the bargain on the field.
These are the positions the M’s have to address going forward.
Adam Moore may push his way into the catcher conversation next year, but if the team isn’t ready to give the catching job to two youngsters, they’ll need to go get an offensive minded backstop that Wak can live with behind the plate for 2010.
Shortstop, the answer has to come from outside the system. There aren’t any internal options. You know the names by now – JJ Hardy, Reid Brignac, Jack Wilson if they want a stop-gap who will have to settle for a one year deal… the M’s will have to get someone in here over the winter who can play the position and hit enough to justify his paycheck.
DH should be fairly easy, honestly. Russ Branyan isn’t the only under-appreciated hitter who hasn’t been able to land a full-time job and is just waiting for his shot. Jeff Clement probably deserves another look, and Mike Carp may be able to give him a run at the internal candidate position as well. Eric Hinske could serve as a short-term fill-in, or you could try to get Jake Fox from the Cubs as a more long term solution. Finding a DH who can hit just isn’t that hard.
As the M’s begin to shift their focus towards 2010, they should not be seduced into looking for “a big bat”. They don’t need another all-star caliber hitter. They just need a few more guys who don’t totally suck at the plate.
Why Saturday’s game isn’t televised
I thought I’d share (with permission) this from the M’s Tim Hevly, sent the last time this happened:
MLB has an exclusive Saturday afternoon “window” for FOX TV. If your game is schedule in the FOX window (basically, 1 pm pacific on Saturdays) no local broadcast is allowed.
Since the A’s chose to play a day game today, once FOX did not pick up the game neither the A’s or the Mariners could televise it. We can televise morning games from the east (10 am pacific) and late afternoon/evening games from the West on Saturday. But not the middle.
As you know, currently FSN will televise 158 games this season, and the national partner is on board for 1 game (they could add more later). The only other games currently not scheduled to be broadcast are July 25 vs. CLE and Oct. 3 vs. TEX.
Game 96, Indians at Mariners
Laffey vs Rowland-Smith, 7:10 pm.
It’s the return of Hyphen, and Wak celebrates by putting out the best line-up possible:
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Shelton, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Langerhans, LF
Johjima, C
Hannahan, 3B
Cedeno, SS
Pitching staff stays at 11
According to the TNT blog, Roy Corcoran has been designated for assignment to make room for Ryan Rowland-Smith’s return to the rotation. I wouldn’t expect Corcoran to get claimed, of all the guys on the roster he should be just about the easiest to pass through waivers. But if not, Sean White is doing the stuff he did last year but better, so it would hardly be a tragedy.
As nice as it is to have more guys on the bench (now please untie Chris Shelton from it), the move suggests how the team plans to fill Sunday’s rotation slot. Vargas would be right on schedule for it, but that requires another move, probably swapping out for a position player as off days dwindle and we return to a 7-man bullpen. That gives a couple more days before a tougher decision has to be made, and even that might be postponed if Gutierrez’s neck, Griffey’s knee, or one of several backs simplifies things a bit.