Rob Johnson’s Offense
When the conversation turns to Rob Johnson, inevitably you can bet you’re about to have a discussion about the value of a catcher beyond the things that we’re currently able to quantify. Catcher ERA, belief systems, language barries… you know the drill by now. I’d imagine most of us cringe and turn away when someone says “let’s talk about Rob Johnson”, because the topic is getting old and boring, with neither side having much new to say.
So, why don’t we talk about his offense instead?
Johnson’s seasonal batting line isn’t good – .209/.278/.340 adds up to a .271 wOBA. Among catchers with at least 150 plate appearances, only Jeff Mathis and Dioner Navarro have been worse offensively this year. Over a full catcher season (~500 PA), Johnson’s offensive performance to date would be worth about 30 runs less than a league average hitter. That’s bad – for context, Russell Branyan’s current level of hitting would be worth about 35 runs above a league average hitter over a full season, so Johnson essentially cancels out Branyan at the plate.
Given his struggles at the plate, and the team’s inability to score runs on a consistent basis, it is easy to see why he’s become such a lightning rod for criticism among fans who don’t value the intangible “belief system” stuff as much as Wakamatsu does. However, if we take a closer look at his offense, perhaps there is more reason for hope than previously believed.
Of Johnson’s 32 hits this year, 16 of them have been for extra bases. When he makes contact, he has the ability to hit the ball hard. He doesn’t have much in the way of loft power, as he’s more of a ground ball/line drive guy whose fly balls are usually easy targets for the outfielders, but he has the ability to drive the ball into the gaps or down the lines. Particularly if he gets a fastball – there’s enough bat speed there for him to turn on it and get himself to second base.
His problems at the plate are an over-aggressive approach (he swings at 30% of pitches outside the strike zone), an inability to handle good breaking stuff, and some holes in his swing that make it tough for him to make contact on pitches inside. Early in the season, pitchers could pound him with fastballs in and sliders away, and he was an easy strikeout. Over the last few weeks, though, he’s made adjustments at the plate.
He’s not chasing those pitches he has problems with early in the count nearly as often anymore. In July, he’s swung at just 41% of the pitches he’s seen, a number comparable to a normal month for Franklin Gutierrez. By increasing his selectivity of what to swing at, he’s getting himself into better situations, and it’s paying off. From April through June, he drew 8 walks in 132 plate appearances – in July, he’s drawn six walks in 39 plate appearances. Perhaps more importantly, he’s only struck out six times this month, for a 15.3% K% – he was at 24%, 26%, and 29% the previous three months.
In comparable amounts of playing time, his monthly BB/K rates are as follows:
April: 1/11
May: 4/12
June: 3/12
July: 6/6
Obviously, the last one sticks out. For the last few weeks, he hasn’t been a chaser, and pitchers are finding that getting him out would require a good pitch. They can’t just throw pitches he can’t hit and let him get himself out, as he’s simply taking that option away from them with his more selective approach at the plate.
Pitchers will adjust, and they’ll start throwing Johnson better pitches in the strike zone. Just because he’s had a good few weeks doesn’t mean he’s now a good hittter – he still has those holes in his swing, and while he’s doing a better job of taking pitches, he still likes to swing the bat, so don’t expect his July performance to be sustainable going forward. But, he’s shown that he can adapt at the major league level, and he’s going to force pitchers to come up with a new game plan to get him out.
The gap power, the improved selectivity at the plate and better contact rates – these are encouraging signs. There’s a reason his ZIPS projection for the rest of the season is .254/.309/.347, a significantly better performance than what he’s put up to date. Even without getting too excited about a small sample hot streak in July, there are legitimate reasons to expect Johnson to be just a not-good hitter instead of a terrible one going forward.
And, realistically, if Johnson is capable of a .290 wOBA (which is what ZIPS projects), then he’s the best option the team has behind the plate. Rob Johnson might not be the kind of catcher that statistical analysts love, but there are worse things to have than a catcher who pitchers love while whacking a double or drawing a walk every now and then.
Minor League Wrap (7/13-19/09)
It’s an abbreviated week in a lot of respects, as the All-Star Game meant that most affiliates weren’t playing and the PCL and the Southern League were both on their respective breaks. Nevertheless, we are not lacking for things to write about…
To the jump!
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There’s Still Time
Last weekend, I road-tripped to an out-of-state wedding that basically took me out of the baseball loop for the weekend. During that time, the Mariners took three of four from the Texas Rangers, dumped Yuniesky Betancourt on the Royals, and acquired Jack Hannahan to help fill the hole at third base.
This weekend, I took my wife on her first-ever camping trip (she enjoyed it, will do it again, thanks for asking) to the mountains of North Carolina, which again took me out of the baseball loop from Friday to Sunday. The M’s won all three games while I was out of town, with Gutierrez showing Cleveland why we love him (he’s now 11th in baseball in wins above replacement, by the way), Felix still pitching like a true ace, and Washburn continuing to inflate his trade value.
I don’t have any plans for next weekend yet, but if the M’s know what’s good for them, I’ll be receiving some airline tickets from the club shortly. I’ve heard Nova Scotia is beautiful this time of year…
Game 92, Mariners at Indians
10.
The M’s will be showcasing Bedard today after yesterday’s Washburn focus. If you act now, qualified buyers can get cash back and 0% financing on this starter and easy payment terms including PTBNL and live arms not on the 40-man roster. Bedard is estimated to retain his resale value over the next month if you drop from contention. Plus there’s a limited-time government incentive of $4,500 if you trade in your old starter to be recycled. And if you call today, we’ll throw in the Mariner Moose. That’s right, the Mariner Moose, yours for one homestand to show off to fans, rent out to furry conventions, whatever you want as long as it’s legal or the cops don’t find out.
Larry Stone has a smart, fairly long discussion with Wakamatsu about the Rob Johnson-Johjima playing time split.
Game 91, Mariners at Indians
Washburn v Ohka. Wait– Washburn’s still here? Um, I mean of course he’s still here! He’s the anchor of this rotation, a much-improved veteran left-hander who combines experience with a newly mastered pitch that exemplifies his dedication to always getting better. Why would the team trade him? Why, if I was a playoff-contending team, I’d pay any price to bring this fine player over before my opponents twigged to the possibility.
Don’t be distracted by Seattle finally getting light rail after… all my life, pretty much (side notes: Light rail! Woooooo! Please get a line over one of the bridges and start doing crazy good, please!). This is where it’s at.
The Angels are beating Oakland as I write this (it’s 8-5 in the 5th) and the M’s are going to have to keep winning if they want to cling to their playoff hopes, which are about 20% right now, depending on where you look.
So win. Win win win.
Lugo as a cheap upgrade option
Today’s email carried a lot of questions about Julio Lugo among our standard massive load of spam/accusations of selling out/press releases. With the Red Sox giving up on him, should the M’s pick him up if he’s essentially free?
Maybe, but it’s not such a clear yes. Even assuming that his knee injury’s responsible for some of his 09 performance in limited playing time, he’s below-average defensively, he’s not driving the ball much any more, but he’d be a welcome on-base hitter in the lineup.
The really good thing is you don’t have to give up anything for him, where (as we’ve already seen) Jack Wilson, JJ Hardy, and the other trade targets command prices that at least are high enough that the team hasn’t made a move yet. That’s even more attractive when you consider that even if the M’s turn into sellers, a free shortstop upgrade helps them stay above water the rest of the year, when the weather’s nice and Safeco Field’s full.
Below-average glove and average bat is a lot better than what we’ve had so far this season. I know Cedeno’s been playing well lately, but even as a middle-infield caddy, Lugo’d make some sense for the M’s. The cost is certainly right.
Update for clarification: Lugo’s been “designated for assignment” which means he’s not on the Sox roster any more, and they have to now put him on waivers, where all the teams can claim him and take on his contract (or work out a deal), trade him, or release him. The reports are that the Red Sox are willing to eat the rest of his deal and maybe take a token minor leaguer back or a really nice pen.
Game 90, Mariners at Indians
Felix Day!!!!
Thursday Night in the Minors
Last night turned out to be a rather eventful one in the minors, and since the wrap won’t launch until Monday, here’s a midweek update:
• Matt Tuiasosopo is back in Tacoma, playing third, after a rehab stint that had him hitting .407.500/.519 in Peoria. He was 1-for-5 with a double, a run scored, and a RBI last night and played the whole game on the field, something that he still hasn’t done yet with great frequency. We should hold off right now to avoid undue pressure, but if he’s ready in a couple weeks, put him into consideration.
• In the Midwest League, 6th-round pick Shaver Hansen debuted, playing shortstop and third and getting a double in three at-bats. He’s probably a second baseman long-term. Poythress and Seager may be joining him sooner or later, but there are no updates on those talks, they’re just “progressingâ€.
• Trevor Coleman, the switch-hitting catcher the Mariners drafted in the 9th-round, already debuted in Everett on Sunday, but more help is on the way, as the Everett Herald says that 4th-round pick OF James Jones and 13th-round pick OF Matt Cerione, both left-handers, will be joining the team shortly.
• Fans in Pulaski got to see the debut of supplemental rounder C Steve Baron, who scored two runs despite only reaching safely once via a walk. He was the designated hitter, but he’ll be behind the plate shortly.
• Finally, in Peoria, Alex Cintron got two plate appearances, doubling and drawing a walk.
Hyphen Time
Ryan Rowland-Smith is scheduled to take the mound for the Tacoma Rainiers tonight. Don’t be surprised if he only lasts 3 innings or so – not because I think he’s going to get hammered, but because I have the feeling that he’ll be making his Mariner re-debut next Tuesdsay in Detroit.
RRS has pitched well in each of his last three outings in Triple-A, and quite simply, he’s better than Garrett Olson. With the M’s already five games out of first place, they’re teetering on the verge of non-contention, and they can’t really afford to run out the seventh best starter in the organization while better options linger in Tacoma.
With the desire to get Vargas some more rest and Morrow some development time in the minors, RRS looks to be next on the depth chart to get the call. With the way he’s pitched recently, he’s certainly earned his way back to the big show, and we’ve seen him get major league hitters out the past couple of years. He’s also the kind of pitcher who will benefit significantly from our outfield defense and Safeco Field, so it’s the M’s best interests to get Rowland-Smith back up here and starting every fifth day.
Of course, if the M’s don’t play well this weekend, we could see Vargas, Olson, Rowland-Smith, and Morrow all back in the major league rotation shortly. The M’s simply have to win two of three this weekend. Felix/Washburn/Bedard vs Huff/Ohka/Laffey? This is the kind of series that the team has to use to make up ground. You can lose Cliff Lee vs Garrett Olson. That’s understandable. The next three, though, the M’s are strong favorites. They can’t drop two out of three while the Angels beat up on the A’s if they want to stay in the race.
Game 89, Mariners at Indians
4:05, FSN.
I’ll post lineups shortly.
Lineups:
SEATTLE MARINERS
Ichiro Suzuki – RF
Russell Branyan – 1B
Jose Lopez – 2B
Ken Griffey Jr. – DH
Franklin Gutierrez – CF
Ryan Langerhans – LF
Kenji Johjima – C
Chris Woodward – 3B
Ronny Cedeno – SS
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Grady Sizemore – CF
Asdrubal Cabrera – SS
Shin-Soo Choo – RF
Victor Martinez – 1B
Travis Hafner – DH
Jhonny Peralta – 3B
Ben Francisco – LF
Jamey Carroll – 2B
Kelly Shoppach – C