Pick ’em
Pitching performances tonight:
Baek: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 2K, 0 HR
Washburn: 5.1 IP, 9H, 3 BB, 4K, 1 HR
Game 58, Angels at Mariners
Santana v Washburn.
Is there any stranger move than Cairo’s ascent to starting first baseman so far this year?
Any team in baseball, any position.
– There’s no injury involved
– Only a couple months ago, the team (and particularly the manager) expected Sexson to have a big bounceback year… which, relatively, he was
– Sexson is paid vastly more than Cairo, when generally teams favor the huge contract
– As of May 23rd, Sexson was hitting .200/.277/.413 while Cairo was hitting .171/.250/.200
– The last time Cairo hit as well as Sexson hit when benched was 2004, when he hit .292/.346/.417 while with the Yankees
– And he’s only hit that or better three times in 13 seasons
– Cairo’s career line of .266/.314/.357 is worse than what Sexson was hitting when benched
– Cairo plays pretty crappy defense too, and if the team can’t recognize that Ibanez is horrible out there, why would they suddenly realize Sexson sucked and turn on him?
– If the team wanted additional scrap, baserunning, and defense, there’s an internal option already much-beloved they could have gone with
– And if the problem’s the PR of having Sexson booed, see above
– Cairo’s not a prospect, or on a long-term deal that makes him worth developing
– Benching Sexson likely lowers his trade value (or his “release value”)
I follow baseball reasonably closely (um, yeah) and I can’t think of another decision like this on any other roster this year. Every day this goes on I’m more convinced the losing has only made the people who run the Mariners crazier. Pretty soon they’re going to go hole up together and have the ball boys read them increasingly made-up game reports.
“General Riggleman reports an absolute shutout against the hated A’s, sir.”
“Excellent! I order a brace of champagne shipped to them by autogyro!”
Update: so it appears that they’ve put Sexson back in the lineup, because it’s a new series. I have the same question I have every time they make a move like this — what does that have to do with anything? If Cairo was the right choice the last n games because he made the team better, why is that not true now? What can possibly be driving these decisions?
Reasons For Optimism
This season has sucked. The team has played badly and provided almost no entertainment value. Their playoff chances are gone, and at this point, there’s not much left to root for. Fans are angry, players are frustrated, and there’s only so many posts you can write about how poorly this team was constructed.
So, I’m throwing a curveball. Here are the reasons to believe that this team will play better the next four months than they did in the first two.
1. Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva have LOB% of 61.5% and 61.6% respectively. Those are the 4th and 5th lowest totals in the American League. Thankfully, LOB% isn’t very predictive, and there’s no reason to think that this is a true change in ability for either of these guys. Both guys have true talent strand rates of closer to 70%, and when their ability to leave runners on base regresses toward the mean, both guys will improve their ERAs quite a bit.
2. Adrian Beltre has a .239 batting average on balls in play despite a line drive percentage of 20.5%. His career BABIP is near .300, and considering how well he’s hitting the baseball, there’s no reason for the ball to continue to find fielders gloves at this rate. Beltre’s skillset makes it likely that his performance will improve as the year goes on.
3. The Mariners are hitting .228/.323/.390 as a team with runners in scoring position, 13th out of 14 AL teams. While the offense isn’t good, it’s better than that, and there’s no reason to believe this is a line-up of unclutch hitters who can’t perform well in scoring opportunities. That number should also improve as the year wears on.
4. Brandon Morrow.
The cloud is dark, but there are some silver linings. This isn’t the worst team in the AL, and they won’t continue to play this badly all year long.
Dave on KJR
Just a heads up – I’m going to be on the air with Ian Furness at 2:05 pm to talk Mariners baseball on KJR.
USSM/LL Announcement #2
We still have a few spots open for the USSM/LL event on Saturday, June 14th. If you are on the fence about coming, sign up. We’ve got a great set of Q&A’s setup for you guys, and you’ll kick yourself if you decided not to go when you hear about it afterward. Details below:
When: Saturday, June 14th, 1 pm to 5 pm
Where: Seattle Central Library on 4th St downtown.
What It Is: Four hours of baseball talk with Jeff Sullivan, Derek Zumsteg, Matthew Carruth, myself, and really cool special guests. You’ll love them.
How Much: $20 per person, registration limited to 100 attendees, includes light food.
If you’ve ever been to one of these before, you’ll know they’re a blast. We’ve had a great time at all of the past events, and I expect that this one will be no different. The Library has a great meeting room setup with theatre seating and AV equipment perfect for a Q&A session with the people we’ve invited (past guests include Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, Mariners scouting director Bob Fontaine, Rangers manager of pro scouting Josh Boyd, ESPN writer Jim Caple, Rainiers Broadcaster Mike Curto, and Aquasox Broadcaster Pat Dillon – you’re going to get cool people at the event, trust us). We’ll just spend the afternoon talking baseball and having a good time, and since the Library is conveniently located not far from Safeco Field, it’s an easy jaunt over to the park after the event is over if you want to watch the team play.
Food will be provided, but I’d suggest that you eat lunch before coming, honestly. We’ll have snacks and non-alcoholic drinks available for people to munch on during the event, but don’t skip a few meals in expectation of devouring free food for hours.
To register for the event, send an email to ussmarinerfeed@gmail.com with the number of people you’re reserving space for included in the subject line and their names included in the message of the email. Your reservation will not be confirmed until we’ve received your payment, which we will accept via paypal or by check. Detailed information on payment and where to meet will be sent to you after you sign up via email.
Seriously, it’s going to be a lot of fun, so come.
The value of the call-out
Okay, so we know that McLaren’s team meetings didn’t work, and Armstrong trashing the team (except for the GM and the manager) didn’t work, but Bavasi, once he went out and tore into the players in public, well:
Responded, as measured by hitting above league-average:
Betancourt, .450/.476/.650
Beltre .174/.208/.565
Did not respond, as measured by hitting below league-average:
Everyone else
Responded, as measured by pitching well:
Bedard (0 ERA!) Dickey (0 ERA!) Green (also 0 ERA!) Lowe (this is getting tiring!) Morrow, Rhodes, Rowland-Smith (all shutout pitching), Felix, even Batista (3.65 ERA!)
Did not respond, as measured by pitching badly:
Putz
Silva
So it looks like having the GM call the team out has some effect, but only suppressing run scoring on both offense and defense. Yayyyy! All hail the GM-call out!
You’re Not Even Trying
The Mariners can claim that they haven’t given up on this season all they want, but let’s be honest, when you give Miguel Cairo five consecutive starts at first base, you’re not trying to win anymore.
Offensive Production from 1B, 2008 American League. Mariners: .204/.276/.374, last in league
Offensive Production from DH, 2008 American League. Mariners: .216/.284/.322, last in league
Can we just release Sexson, Cairo, and Vidro already? The season’s over and the organization has to be going another direction unless they’re just attempting to drag out the embarrassment.
Game 57, Tigers at Mariners
1:10. Bonderman v Batista.
Both pitchers are playing pretty badly so far — Bonderman’s strikeout rate is way down and his walk rate is way up, and Silva’s in about the same place by having smaller declines. The thing is, Bonderman’s 11 years younger than Silva. Except for injury, it’s hard to explain what may have gone wrong with Bonderman — his 4.34 ERA conceals a year much worse than last year, aided by a higher-than-expected strand rate and a low .279 opposing batting average when they do put the ball in play. His G/F ratio’s about where his career totals are, too. He’s just not pitching as well, which is a big cause for the Tigers’ struggles so far this year.
Speculation continues around Sexson, who hasn’t played in a while — first there were the Hatteberg rumors (which is kind of classic rumor-mongering, as rumors became a note by Baker in the Times that there were rumors, a note then cited as confirming the team was after him) to fan-level speculation he’ll be DFAd or released. There’s been no speculation that he’s injured, and McLaren’s reasoning for starting Cairo grow increasingly unbelievable with each game. But this seems like a fine chance to play Sexson: Bonderman’s giving up walks and he’s always been a little above average in HRs surrendered, and his ability to strike batters out has been off this year.
Oh, Felix
I can’t feel anything but happiness after watching that.
Game thread, whoops, my fault, #56 Tigers at Mariners
Felix Day! And he’s looking good! And the M’s are ahead!