The bad deal
Okay, so the deal of doom has been reported by just about every media outlet known to man. The Mariners are still refusing to officially confirm that a deal is in place, but they’re no longer denying it, and it’s clear that this trade is going to happen, barring an 11th hour miracle.
The Mariners have traded a good 27-year-old pitcher for a mediocre 27-year-old pitcher.
Forget everything else you’re going to hear for a minute. Forget the starter vs reliever designations, years of service, groundball rates, all of it. The M’s traded a pitcher who will be 27 in two weeks for a pitcher who turned 27 two weeks ago in a straight up, one for one deal. It’s a challenge trade, essentially. The M’s chose left-handedness and a designation as a starting pitcher over talent and performance. They swapped a good pitcher for a mediocre one, and none of the issues about rotation vs bullpen can wipe that away.
This is a bad deal. We’re obviously against this in every way, shape, and form. Horacio Ramirez is not the kind of guy you trade arms like Rafael Soriano’s for. Horacio Ramirez is the kind of arm you pick up as a throw-in to a deal or that you sign for a cheap, one year contract as a free agent. Like they were going to do with John Thomson. He’s John Thomson’s left-handed twin.
Okay, now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, this deal still has a good chance to look okay for the M’s in retrospect? We were in favor of dealing Rafael Soriano this offseason for the same reason the M’s were willing to give him up – I believe that it’s only a matter of time until he needs surgery on his arm again, and that he’s one of the highest risk pitchers in MLB. There’s a very real chance that he blows his arm out in May and spends the next year and a half rehabbing, returning just in time to become a free agent after the 2008 season.
That chance that Rafael Soriano was going to turn into a near useless asset if they held onto him, and that he was going to be used as an 8th inning setup man, made it wise to deal him. There’s still a very real chance that Rafael Soriano is going to turn into a near useless asset. He comes with all kinds of risk, and the reward for the Mariners wasn’t as high as it should have been.
And, for all his mediocreness, Horacio Ramirez does some things well. In 520 innings in the majors over four years, he’s posted a groundball rate of 49.7%. He uses a two-seam fastball to induce a lot of grounders, which reduces the need to post an excellent strikeout rate. Miguel Batista, for instance, has been using this skillset to be a decent back-end starter for years, and there are plenty of left-handed, 50% GB guys who don’t strike anyone out and regularly post decent to average seasons in the rotation.
Most of them have better command than Ramirez does, however, and all of them have better health records. For all the talk about Soriano’s arm, Ramirez isn’t exactly a workhorse. He’s already had shoulder surgery, and missed half of 2006 recovering from problems with his arm, his groin, his hamstring, and his finger. Durable isn’t a word used to describe the man.
He’s only got three full years of major league service, so he’s not free agent eligible until after 2009, and he’s certainly going to command less in salary than a comparable free agent starting pitcher. If he’s healthy and everything goes well, he could give the M’s 200 league average innings for the next couple of years, in which case this trade would probably be a win for the Mariners.
But trades aren’t evaluated by the performance of the best case scenario for the guy you’re getting and the worst case scenario for the other guy. Yes, this trade can work for the M’s if Ramirez stays healthy and Soriano blows out his arm. But that’s not how you evaluate whether you should make a deal or not.
Soriano’s just a better pitcher than Horacio Ramirez, and the M’s a worse team for having exchanged the two.
To this deal, I just have one word: Boooooooooooooooooooo.
Ugh
There are conflicting reports surrounding a potential trade of Rafael Soriano to the Braves for Horacio Ramirez. Several sources close to the Braves claim its done – one source with the M’s claims its not.
We should know in a few hours.
Jason Schmidt agrees with Dodgers
Reports from Orlando have the Dodgers agreeing to terms with Jason Schmidt. No official terms and dollars yet, but Rotoworld is saying 3 years, $47 million. Schmidt’s not a $15 million per year pitcher, but at 3 years, that’s not the worst signing in the world.
This could be a great or terrible thing for the M’s. If they use the money earmarked for Schmidt to pursue Tim Hudson, then fantastic. If they panic and decide they can’t get left without a starter and throw a ton of money at Ted Lilly or Jeff Weaver, then this sucks.
I think Schmidt’s overrated and likely to be overpaid, but at least he’s useful. Overpaying for one of the #4 starters on the market would be even worse.
Wednesday winter meeting fun
JD Drew gets 5y/$70m from the Red Sox
Julio Lugo gets 4y/$36m
Maddux headed to the Padres on a one-year deal
Mets and Royals swap bad pitchers
LaTroy Hawkins gets $4 million from Rockies to suck
Schmidt is one post up.
Edit: There’s nothing to the Manny for Sexson/Beltre rumors – that one’s bogus.
Tuesday Rumors
Slow day at the winter meetings. This is one of those days when all the people who go for fun, and not because they’re on assignment for their jobs, try to remember what on earth they were thinking.
Mariner tidbits from the day.
The Manny deal looks to be dead, since Boston was asking for a ridiculous price. I was obviously in favor of a Manny trade, having suggested it several months ago, but for what Theo wanted, the M’s were right to say no.
The M’s are saying all the proper things about not shopping Sexson, but he’s absolutely on the block. The current rumor du jour has Sexson going to San Francisco and Rafael Soriano going to Atlanta in a three way trade that would send Tim Hudson and Adam LaRoche to the Mariners. This deal would be a home run for the Mariners and a lousy one for the Braves, so I’d expect John Schuerholz to come to his senses before it gets too far. But man, if that deal happens, I’ll do backflips in the street.
I know everyone thinks Tim Hudson has gone into dramatic decline, but it’s just not true. He’s not the same #1 starter he was in Oakland, but he’s better (and younger and cheaper) than Jason Schmidt. His problems in 2006 essentially boil down to two things – lots of flyballs going over the wall (16.3% HR/FB rate) and an inability to strand runners (67.4%). His HR/FB was the second highest in the NL, and his LOB% was the 6th lowest. Basically, he’s the anti-Washburn. He’s an extreme groundball guy whose ERA was inflated by the amount of flyballs going over the wall and the frequency with which runners scored. We saw reversion to the mean with Washburn last year, and I’m pretty sure we’ll see it with Hudson next year.
The Cardinals have made a public proclamation that they’re going after Jason Schmidt. All I can say is Go Cardinals Go.
Mini FAQ
You can thank John Hickey for this post. In one column in Tuesday’s P-I, and one post on the P-I blog, he managed to move the Mariners from a figure in the shadows to the most notable team in Orlando. Not bad for 1,000 words. Since I know you guys are going to hammer the threads with these questions, let’s do a short Q&A about what I’m hearing about the rumors going around right now.
1. Are the Mariners really going after Manny Ramirez?
Yes and no. The Mariners and Red Sox have had multiple conversations about Ramirez, but they did not come to Orlando with the intention of walking away with Ramirez as their DH. The M’s established contact with the Red Sox to set themselves up as a backup plan in case things with the Dodgers didn’t work out and they found themselves looking for suitors for Manny. During talks last night and this morning, the Red Sox asked the Dodgers for every single player on their roster and $250 billion in gold bars, or something close to it, and the Dodgers understandably walked away.
At some point after that, the Red Sox called the M’s to establish a legitimate alternative option in case the deal with LA was irreconcilable. The Mariners know that a payroll with Manny can’t also include Richie Sexson, so the Giants were hauled in as a conduit. Brian Sabean has been after Sexson for months, and since he’s also been pursuing Ramirez but lacked the necessary trade chips to get something done, a three-way deal evolved as the logical answer.
So, they talked and laid the foundations for the possibility of a deal. The idea has been explored. But, and this is a big deal, this three-way trade isn’t the #1 option on any of these teams wish lists. The Red Sox want to deal with LA and rob them of some very good young talent. The Giants want Ramirez for themselves. The Mariners just want Jason Schmidt to stop trying to get a deal that locks him up through age 86 and sign on the dotted line.
This is a backup plan for all three teams, which makes it extremely unlikely that it’s going to happen. A friend asked me tonight what I thought the odds are of this deal going down and I told him 5%, or 10% if I really optimistic that minute. Either way, it’s a long shot.
2. You’ve said that the names in Hickey’s report aren’t completely accurate. Who is involved?
Sexson is involved. Everyone else on the roster not named Felix, Betancourt, or Ichiro is up for discussion. But there’s no deal on the table – there’s not an offer that sends Jones and Putz to Boston, Ramirez and Lowry to Seattle, and Sexson to San Francisco. All those names have been mentioned in discussions, but from what I understand, that’s not the trade that would happen. That deal wouldn’t work for Boston or San Francisco, and at that price, Los Angeles would get back in the game. And once LA is back in the game, the M’s are back to being Plan B.
3. Are the M’s really going after Barry Zito?
The M’s have called every pitcher with a pulse during the past few weeks. The team source that Hickey talked to was right – if the years were the same, of course you’d be interested in the younger guy. But it was a completely hypothetical statement, because the years aren’t anywhere close to the same. Jason Schmidt is going to get 4 years and is trying to get 5. Barry Zito wants 6 and might get 7, and Zito’s going to get more money per year to boot. I’m sure the M’s have talked about Barry Zito, and I’m sure there’s no chance that they actually sign him. With the Rangers involved in the bidding, it’s in the Mariners best interest to create a public perception of significant interest from other parties, but I don’t know of any offseason plan the Mariners have created that includes Barry Zito taking the hill on opening day of 2007.
4. Tim Hudson? Adam LaRoche? Where are these names coming from?
Depending on who you talk to, the Braves and Mariners may or may not have talked about a deal this afternoon that would have swapped pitchers and first baseman and cash, and they may or may not have talked about using Atlanta in lieu of San Francisco as the third team in a Manny deal. There are a lot of deals to be made with the Braves that make a lot of sense for the Mariners – there are significantly less that makes sense for John Schuerholz and crew.
5. What do you think of all these moves?
There are so many permutations of each rumor that it’s impossible to give a thumbs up or thumbs down on potential deals. But I will say this – the M’s are talking about making the right kind of deal, and that makes me happier than anything. They’ve clearly decided that if they’re going to pay superstar prices for talent, they’re actually going to try to get a superstar for the money, and that’s the best conclusion they could have come to.
I don’t think the Mariners are going to end up with Manny Ramirez, Tim Hudson, or Adam LaRoche, but we should all love the fact that they’re trying.
Site slow, comments off
Hey. You may have noticed the site’s been slow or non-responsive today. We’re under a massive request load. I’ve turned off comments for a while in the hopes that some of our more obsessive reloaders will knock it off, and we’ll see how things go.
8pm update: we’re starting to bring features back online. Comments just came back up. May be up and down for a while. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Monday rumors
We’ll give you guys a new thread so you stop refreshing the Guillen one every five seconds and hammering our server. Please be kind.
The M’s are talking about Manny. Hooray. (11 pm edit: Strong talk, at that)
The M’s are willing to deal Sexson. Hooray.
The M’s officially signed Guillen, DFA’d Livingston. Hooray.
Hard to complain about any of the rumblings so far. No Carl Everett or Jarrod Washburn type rumors to make me want to crawl up in a ball and cry.
Winter Meetings Predictions
The offseason kicks into high gear tomorrow as the winter meetings officially get underway. Most teams were traveling to Orlando today, but now that all 30 teams are in one hotel hanging out, expect a flurry of major moves in the next few days. While the Mariners aren’t the big player they were two years ago, there’s still a good chance that they could make some big splashes. You’re going to hear them linked to a lot of names, as one of the hallmarks of this front office is exploring a lot of different options simultaneously.
Most of what you read isn’t going to come to fruition. But some of it will. Based on some conversations I’ve had with people in Orlando, rumors that have been kicking around for the past few weeks, and just a general gut feeling, here’s what I’m betting on the Mariners doing before the winter meetings end – but please note that not even Bill Bavasi has any idea what they’re actually going to accomplish, so 95% of this is going to be wrong. Take it with many grains of salt.
Okay, so I’m not going out on a big limb here. Schmidt wants to pitch in Seattle, and despite his agent trying to drum up interest in him from other teams, everyone in baseball knows it. The Mariners know it too, so they’ve been unwilling to bid against themselves, which is why Schmidt isn’t yet a Mariner. But it’d be the stunner of the offseason if it didn’t happen. He wants to pitch here, they want him to pitch here, and they have the money. It’s about as much of a lock as you can have in baseball.
Much to my delight, the M’s are willing to talk about dealing Richie Sexson, but probably a few weeks late. The Orioles and Giants have already signed right-handed first base options (Millar and Aurilia, respectively), and the line of GMs interested in Sexson as a $14 million player doesn’t extend far beyond those two cities. The addition of Jose Guillen gives the Mariners another RH bat with some power to replace Sexson in the line-up, which makes them more amenable to dealing him, but it’s unlikely that they’ll find a team willing to match the price. So, rather than taking Broussard to arbitration and paying him $4 million to play an undefined role, expect the M’s to ship him to the Orioles for a mediocre prospect or two.
Jeremy Reed has no future in Seattle. One of Bill Bavasi’s personal beliefs is that players deserve a chance to have a career, and he’s consistently bent over backwards to trade players in an effort to give them a better opportunity than he can offer. The M’s are going to sell low on Reed, but acquiring a live armed reliever or two will give them the opportunity to…
- Trade Rafael Soriano and a couple of prospects to Colorado for Jason Jennings
The Mariners have noticed the high price that relief pitchers have been fetching in trades the past six months, and none of the relievers moved have been as talented as Rafael Soriano. Due to his continuing arm issues, they’re not considering moving him to the rotation, and J.J. Putz has a hammerlock on the closer job, so he’s pigeonholed as a setup man in Seattle, and there are several teams that would love to hand him the ball in the 9th inning. The Rockies are going to trade Jennings if they can’t sign him to a long term contract, and despite the likely deal with John Thomson, Bavasi would love to add another 200 inning workhorse to slide into the middle of the rotation.
Two small trades, one large trade, and the most obvious free agent signing in history.
All of this is possible. No one knows what will happen this week, but that’s my best guess.
Guillen details emerge
$5m base, ~$3m more possible in incentives. $9m option for 2008. He expects to play right field.
I’m not too distressed over the money, since there are a lot of ways they could have spent a lot more over a longer period of time. And, I’m about 50% annoyed that this likely means Snelling heads to Tacoma/the bench despite being generally awesome and 50% hopeful this means they’re thinking Guillen plays right the bulk of the time, Snelling plays left, and Ibanez moves to DH… or something happens along those lines. I’m willing to give this some time.
As now quoted many places:
“It’s to play in right field,” he said. “All of the discussions we had were about me being in right field.”