Dobbs, Jones up, Choo, Oliveros down
In addition to the Jones move we told you about yesterday, the M’s have also swapped out Shin-Soo Choo for Greg Dobbs.
Basically, they’re not ready to kick Everett to the curb quite yet, so Dobbs gets the Petagine role of sitting on the bench and never playing, instead of Choo or Snelling. When seen through that perspective, it’s hard to argue with.
But man, they need to get rid of Everett already.
Ichiro’s tree comments
I haven’t posted this because I really don’t know what to say. I still think it’s 50-50 whether Ichiro’s putting one over on the reporter in his recent comments on the team.
The part that’s caused all the head scratching is this bit:
“If there is a problem, we need to notice what creates the problem,” Ichiro said in Japanese, through his translator. “The problem usually isn’t just on the cover. You need to look much deeper. For example, if we’re talking about a tree and the tree has a problem, you need to look at the root. But you cannot see the root. The mistake is to keep watering the fruit. That’s not going to solve anything.”
Folks, I honestly have no idea what he’s trying to point to as the root cause. I’d guess management, but then that’s not really the root of a tree, is it — that’s the organization. Is it the city? Is it us?
Ichiro, if it’s us, we can change. Let’s talk.
Thiel’s about it for reading today
“This season not worth sacrificing future for”
He argues that in Reed’s abscence, centerfield could be Ichiro, with Doyle playing right.
Unless Carl Everett catches fire in the second half, the designated hitter/left field role could be rotated among Ibanez, Shin-soo Choo, Mike Morse and even prized youngster Adam Jones.
That’s… an odd rotation. But okay.
Adam Jones to the Majors
Ladies and Gentleman, your new starting centerfielder, Adam Jones.
The Mariners have been hyper-aggressive with promoting their prospects this year. There isn’t another club in the majors who is moving their young players through the system as quickly as the Mariners are. This move is a continuation of that philosophy – as soon as a player has shown that he is no longer struggling at a level, he is challenged with a promotion.
Adam Jones, for the last 6 weeks, has shown that he is no longer struggling at Triple-A. His splits by month:
April: .268/.286/.512, 82 AB, 22 H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 1 BB, 20 K
May: .208/.263/.368, 106 AB, 22 H, 4 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 8 BB, 23 K
June: .342/.405/.482, 114 AB, 39 H, 7 2B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 23 K
July: .308/.419/.692, 26 AB, 8 H, 1 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 1 K
The improvement the last six weeks jumps off the page. It’s most obvious in BB/K ratio, but it shows up across the board. He was striking out in nearly out of every four at-bats to start the year but cut that to one in six last month. His one strikeout in 26 at-bats so far in July, while a tiny sample, is pretty amazing, and a pretty blatant display of improvement.
For the last 140 at-bats, Adam Jones has been a monster in Triple-A. If that performance reflects his new true talent level, than he’s ready for the majors, and he could come up and be this year’s Jeff Francoeur.
However, there’s no way to know if that 140 at-bat sample is reflective of his current abilities with the bat. Scouts can help us, we can take some guesses, and we can hope, but in a sample that small, anyone can hit extremely well. Drawing any kind of firm conclusion from 140 at-bats that goes directly counter to the proceding 180 at-bats is unwise.
We can hope that Adam Jones turned a corner at the beginning of June, and this isn’t just a hot streak. Positive scouting reports are certainly encouraging, and the fact that he cleary has significant talent is also in his favor. But no one, not Bill Bavasi, not you or I, actually knows if Adam Jones has permanently implemented the things that have caused his run since June 1st into his repertoire, or if they’re going to dissipate the moment he sees a major league curveball.
From everyone I’ve talked to, Adam Jones has been killing fastballs in Triple-A, but still struggles mightily with anything offspeed. He’s done much better at no longer chasing that pitch, because he’s learning he can wait for something better, but he has not yet learned how to actually hit the pitch with any regularity. If he starts seeing a steady diet of breaking balls in the strike zone, he could be in trouble, because his current approach of crush-fastballs-and-lay-off-breaking-balls is rendered moot.
There’s also the matter of defense. He’s been playing center field for less than a year. While he has all kinds of physical skills, he’s still a raw defender. He still makes poor reads at times, gets bad jumps on balls, and runs inefficient routes to the ball. His athleticism will help him become a good defender in time, but he’s not there yet.
Almost every player with Jones’ skillset who has been called up to the majors has struggled, sometimes for several years. It is rare for a player with Jones’ offensive skillset to come up and dominate immediately. It’s certainly possible, as Jeff Francoeur showed last year, but Francoeur hasn’t been able to sustain his success from last year, and just like ’05 Francoeur is a possibility, so is ’06 Francoeur.
Adam Jones could be the answer in center field. It’s possible. But it’s also quite possible that he spends the first three months of his major league career getting intimidated by Safeco Field, staring at major league breaking balls for strike three, and having his confidence beaten down by an early promotion. The club could have left him in Tacoma, let him continue to learn and develop against Triple-A pitching with little pressure, and evaluated him in a context where he was playing against his peers.
Now? He’s been thrust into the middle of a pennant race and asked to learn to hit major league pitching in one of the toughest major league parks for a right-handed hitter in baseball. The M’s love to challenge their prospects – they just may have challenged Adam Jones too quickly for his sake, and for the team’s sake.
He’s a heck of a talent. But he wouldn’t be the first talent who fell on his face due to being promoted too quickly.
Mariner Trade Value
Last year, I did a post on players trade value across MLB, an idea stolen from Bill Simmons annual NBA trade value article. The basic gist of the idea can be summarized like this; if a team called you and asked for a player in return, who would you rather give up? Service time, salary, and performance all factor into the equation.
In essence, who has the most trade value in the Mariners organization? We’ll count down the top 25 in reverse order. Because this is what we do during the all-star break when you take real baseball games away from us for four days. Jerks.
25. Steve Uhlmansiek, LHP
Working his way back, mostly throwing well. Could be a breakthrough guy in ’07.
24. Greg Halman, OF
A younger, better version of Balentien. Has less value around the league, but more to me.
23. Wladmir Balentien, OF
He’s an all-or-nothing prospect, but his power is legitimately rare. I’d cash in before he busts.
22. George Sherrill, LHP
Lefty one out guys aren’t tough to find, but good luck finding one this tough on LH hitters.
21. Jeremy Reed, CF
His stock has tumbled a long ways. Hasn’t adjusted to majors, looks to be on the outs.
20. Justin Thomas, LHP
Better stuff than other southpaws in organization, missing bats like crazy.
19. Emiliano Fruto, RHP
Stuff is good, command is not, results are mixed. Needs to take a step forward.
18. Mark Lowe, RHP
Transformed himself from a thrower into a pitcher in less than a year.
17. Francisco Cruceta, RHP
Fantastic waiver claim a year ago. Command needs work, but stuff is good enough to help team.
16. Matt Tuiasasopo, SS/3B/RF
Organization has pushed him fast, but it would be nice to see results eventually.
15. Ryan Feierabend, LHP
Makes the most out of average stuff. Scouts love his make-up and approach to pitching.
14. Shin-Soo Choo, OF
Does everything well enough to play in majors, none of it well enough to start regularly.
13. Gil Meche, RHP
His value will likely never be higher, but ironically comes when club needs to keep him the most.
12. Raul Ibanez, LF
What a weird, weird career path he has taken. But we’re enjoying the fruits of that.
11. Chris Snelling, LF/DH
Every time he’s healthy, we get excited. When he gets hurt, we cry. Please stay healthy.
10. Brandon Morrow, RHP
With future rotation totally up for grabs, organization is hoping he comes fast.
9. J.J. Putz, RHP
Hurts me to have him this low, but closers are easy to find. But man, he’s good.
8. Rafael Soriano, RHP
Still has the potential to move back to the rotation at some point.
7. Jeff Clement, C
How badly could this team use a guy who can hit .280/.400/.500? He might be that guy.
6. Kenji Johjima, C
Already an above average catcher and signed at way below market value.
5. Adam Jones, CF
Establishing himself as the premier prospect in the organization.
4. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
Hard to find another league average shortstop making as little as he is.
3. Jose Lopez, 2B
All-Star second baseman at age 23, doesn’t make anything for several years.
2. Ichiro, RF
If he was willing and eager to play center field, he’d be untouchable.
1. Felix Hernandez, RHP
Obviously, he’s not going anywhere.
Guys who have value to the team, but not value in the trade market, include Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, and Jarrod Washburn. While the team would be instantly worse if they were removed, let’s be honest, we’d gladly unload their contracts if we could.
Live game thread for the home run derby!
There will be no live game thread for the home run derby. Chris Berman and Joe Morgan analyzing a novelty contest — no, please, I’ll be over here gouging my eyeballs out with a spoon and puncturing my eardrums with a railroad spike. Ugh.
Warm Your Heart, Satisfy Your Snark
Warm your heart on this Monday with a touching story about Katie Morris, a fan who visited Safeco Field with the help of the Make A Wish Foundation.
To cleanse the palate and chill those cockles, we have an effort by Jonah Keri. For all who complained about Eddie Guardado not making Jonah’s No-Stars Team, I offer the following: Hidden in this column like the delicious center of a Tootsie Roll pop is a shot at the Mariners’ erstwhile closer.
What Is Gil Meche?
Another day, another good start from Gil Meche, resulting in a Mariners win. With the performance today, he lowered his ERA to 3.83 for the season and has been essentially annointed the team’s current ace by the coaching staff, as he will start the first game after the all-star break.
What a difference a month makes. After his May 30th start, Meche had a 4.87 ERA, a 5-6 record, and less than stellar peripherals. On a per 9 inning basis, he was allowing 1.28 homers, 4.39 walks, and 7.51 strikeouts. The K’s are nice, but everything else is poor, leading to the mediocre run prevention. At that point, we’d seen two more months of the typical Gil Meche.
Since June 5th, he’s started 7 games and pitched significantly better. In those 7 games, he’s thrown 45 innings, posted a 2.39 ERA, and the improved run prevention is matched by improved ratios. His HR/9 has been 0.80, his BB/9 a much improved 2.79, and his K/9 has held steady at 7.37.
You can see the improvement in his Fielding Independant ERA as well. In his first 11 starts, his FIP was 4.84, almost perfectly matching his 4.87 ERA. In his last 7 starts, his FIP has been 3.64. His ERA of 2.39 is over a run lower than you’d expect based his normal peripheral numbers, but a 3.64 FIP is nothing to be sneezed at, and is a marked improvement.
So, what has Meche done better the last 7 starts to lead to this improvement?
Two things, quite simply: He’s throwing more strikes and keeping the ball in the yard. The decrease in walks has kept runners off the bases, and the lack of home runs allowed have kept the ones that have gotten aboard from scoring. However, it is quite rare to see a pitcher simultaneously put the ball over the plate significantly more often and cut his home run rate nearly in half. Generally, strikes equal long balls, unless you just have awesome unhittable stuff, and Meche does not. Looking at the numbers as a percentage of batters faced, we see the following pattern:
First 11 starts: BB – 11%, K – 19%, HR – 3%
Last 7 starts: BB – 8%, K – 20%, HR – 2%
Less walks, slightly higher strikeout rate, less home runs. It is rare to see a pitcher simultaneously throw more strikes, put the same amount of balls in play, and still cut his home run rate. As we’ve discussed previously on the site, historically, we’ve seen no evidence of starting pitchers being able to sustain HR rates lower than their FB rates would suggest. Essentially, if Meche’s new found ability to keep the ball in the yard is real, it’s going to show up in his GB/FB%. If this is a repeatable skill, his recent run of home run stinginess will be accompanied by a raise in GB%. Let’s see if thats true:
First 11 starts: 42% GB rate, 36% FB rate
Last 7 starts: 41% GB rate, 44% FB rate
Well, that’s not what we wanted to see. He’s cut his HR rate in half despite a significant uptick in balls hit in the air. Looking at it another way, we see his HR/FB rate was 13% in his first 11 starts, but is just 7% in his last 7 starts. 11% is the league average, which pitchers have shown to regress towards over time. Pitchers in Safeco will post slightly lower HR/FB rates due to the home park, making 10% more of a realistic marker. So, he’s basically been 3% high in his bad stretch and 3% low in his good stretch.
It’s pretty obvious that his current style of performance is unsustainable, however. That isn’t to say the results aren’t sustainable, but he won’t continue to get these kind of results pitching this way. If he wants to keep posting a 2.39 ERA (or anything below 3.5, really), he better start missing a lot more bats and getting a lot more groundballs in a hurry.
Good Gil Meche is throwing the ball over the plate a lot, missing bats at a slightly above average rate, and keeping the ball in the yard. You won’t find starting pitchers who have sustained that kind of profile for a long time – if you’re not missing bats a lot and you’re throwing strikes, you’re going to get taken deep more often than this.
So, realistically, even if Gil Meche continues to throw like he has his last 7 starts, and does not regress back to what he was in the 123 major league starts that came before it and say he’s not that good, he still can’t sustain his performance with the way he’s pitching. Either the walks are going to go up or the home runs are. He’s not going to be able to keep both at their currrent low rates. It’s not a repeatable skill.
That isn’t to say Gil Meche can’t pitch well. If we put the HR/FB rate back to 10% for the rest of the year, and assume that he’ll continue to post 8% walk and 20% strikeout rates, that can be an effective enough pitcher. Noah Lowry, last season, posted numbers almost exactly identical to what Meche has posted in his last 7 starts, and he ended the year with a 3.78 ERA, 4.05 FIP, and 4.34 xFIP.
That’s what Gil Meche’s last seven start skillset projects out to. Not many walks, some homers, and enough strikeouts to make him valuable enough to pitch in the middle of a decent rotation. If Gil Meche continues to pitch like he has since the calendar turned to June, a performance similar to what 2005 Noah Lowry put up is about what we should expect.
If Gil Meche reverts to previously established form and throws like he has from 2000 through May of this year, well, he’ll be significantly worse than that.
All that to say, no, Gil Meche has not turned a corner. He’s not an ace, and he’s not pitching like one. He’s a back-end starter having a nice run aided by some performances that are unsustainable.
Edited to add: Should have included this in the original post, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen Gil Meche become this kind of pitcher. In the second half of 2004, he ended the year with a 13 start run that saw him pitch very similar to this. Because his HR/FB rate was 12% in that run, his ERA was 4.02, but the style was very similar.
It obviously was not sustainable. This is nothing new – Meche has done this before. It’s just not a recipe for long term success.
Game 89, Tigers at Mariners
LHP Nate Robertson v RHP Gil Meche. 1:05.
Meche makes the last start before the All-Star Break and, according to Hargrove, will start the first one after it. He’s an ace! An ace!
Today’s anti-LHP lineup for you:
RF-L Ichiro!
3B-R Beltre
2b-R Lopez
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
DH-R Perez (no, really! Everett tempter tantrum scheduled to follow the game!)
CF-R Bloomquist the Ignitor
C-R Rivera
SS-R Betancourt
Mariners make mystery moves
From the Seattle Times today.
Petagine gets DFAd after making an appearance:
After the game, the Mariners designated Roberto Petagine for assignment, and called up catcher Luis Oliveros from Class AA San Antonio. The move bolsters the catcher spot while Kenji Johjima takes a brief absence from the team. Johjima will fly to Japan today to visit his wife and new baby boy, who was born June 30.
Nice to get Johjima the time off, and yet — really? Petagine doesn’t get used but one, twice a series if he’s lucky, and now he’s dumped? This requires the team to put Oliveros on the roster, while Quiroz is still off? I don’t get it.
Hargrove’s got a new rotation after the break:
Hargrove promised he would alter the rotation after the All-Star break. He said the new order will be Gil Meche, Jamie Moyer, Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn and Joel Pineiro.
Also, Ichiro talked for seven minutes, according to the article, about his argument with Barrett.
“I reacted that way because it was obvious,” Ichiro said. “I hit it. Besides that, if I had missed the ball, I would have run to first base. Basically for him to say what he did is that he’s saying that I’m lying. So I’m disappointed and kind of sad that he saw me as a player like that, that I would lie in a situation like that.”
And Choo’s working on his defense.
In the Tacoma News Tribune, Larry LaRue writes on the team’s recent swoon and says that after the break, the M’s will ditch Oliveros so they can bring up a center fielder. Really? Who? Jones/Doyle seems unlikely. I’m not sure what he means.
Of course, that same article contains this:
This is the same Petagine deemed so valuable off the bench in April that Seattle let center fielder Joe Borchard go.
You could argue that any player is a choice between all other players, but that’s not really how things happened. Petagine’s contract was picked up 4/1. Borchard was DFAd on 4/23 and Nageotte was called up (for a game). It was Hargrove picking up more pitchers.
Update: John Hickey, in the PI blog, scratches his head over the Petagine move (and his usage). He also believes it was Petagine-or-Borchard, which may be the common wisdom but I still think is a false choice that requires you to make a set of assumptions about the way the M’s managed their roster through April.