Game 73, Mariners at Padres
Wow, 1:10… didn’t see that coming. Televised on (metallic whiiiirrrr— pow!) Fox!
RHP Sele v RHP Peavy.
A couple of points from last night’s game — that Sexson double-play ball, Beltre totally dogged it on his way to second, only starting to hustle when the ball was dropped, running way out to the outfield side of the baseline, not sliding at all. Is he trying to save his hamstrings?
Then, it didn’t matter if he took the guy out or not, though it’d have been nice if he’d run hard and been safe, because Sexson was out by half a mile, a ridiculous distance. He didn’t run at all. And at that point in the game, they weren’t up a thousand to four.
Using cool-o-matic statistical probability only:
Chances that Morse is a .300 hitter but hit .260 in his many minor league at-bats: 20 deviations from the mean, ~0.005%
Chances that Morse is a .400 hitter but hit .260 in his many minor league at-bats: zippo
Chances that Morse is a .260 hitter having a crazy hot streak: ~0.4%
While it’s unlikely that this is a crazy hot streak, it’s about eighty times more likely that’s the case.
A more likely scenario (Morse, being fairly old, is a little better than his minor league career numbers) gets the “hot streak” probability up to like 1, 2% depending on what you set the stats at.
Boy, I wish I’d saved this for a PI article now. Hey, wait — nobody mention this to anyone, and I’ll write it up anyway next week.
Secret Revealed
Nobody has generated as much talk on the blog lately as one Michael Morse, who is something like 142 for his last 50, and is leading the league in every major category known to man. Okay, slight exaggeration, but the guy’s been on fire ever since the M’s called him up, and people are climbing all over each other to get on the Mike Morse bandwagon.
Well, this morning, the secret of Mike Morse’s hitting abilities was faxed over to USSM headquarters. After confirming its legitimacy with three sources, I’ve decided to publish the document that reveals why Mike Morse has been able to keep his Ted Williams impression going for several weeks.
Remember, this is a USSM exclusive:
Dear
WillieMike,Thank you for contacting Satan Enterprises LLC. We have reviewed your file and feel that you are a perfect fit for our newest promotion. As a recent graduate of the minor leagues with a less than stellar performance record, it appears that you could use a hand–or perhaps, a spirit–in making your dream of becoming the next Alex Rodriguez come true. After all, by the time he was your age, he had 120 major league home runs and had been a three time all-star. You, not so much. But we feel that you’ve got things we can work with; you’re tall, you are from Florida, and you play shortstop. Well, that’s what the program says, anyways. With a little help from the Dark One, we feel you could become something special.
Sound exciting? This offer is tailor made just for you. If you respond in the next 24 hours, we’ll even slash our price in half. That’s right, you can become a major league superstar for the low, low, low price of one soul-and yes, it has to be yours-and a 2 year agreement to conduct rituals (that are described in the attached pamphlet) on a weekly basis. That’s it! You want to become M-Mor? We will make it happen, and really, you won’t miss your soul at all. It just gets in the way of superstardom anyways.
We look forward to hearing from you. You can call Hades at 1-900-Go-Satan twenty-four hours a day. Or, if you’d prefer, simply fill out the form below and place it under your pillow this evening. We’ll send a representative-and please, don’t refer to them as ghouls, as they have feelings too-to pick it up and save you the cost of a stamp.
All the best,
Beelzebub.
[ ] Yes, I want to hear more. Please send me an informational video.
[ ] No thanks, I’m happy with my mediocre baseball skills. I’ll be a role player and like it.
[X] I want to be a superstar! I’ve already built my altar and want to sign up.Michael Morse (sign here)
Game 72, Mariners at Padres
RHP Meche v LHP Darrell May.
What a pitching duel this is going to be. I’m going to make a prediction: scoring four runs will not win this game.
Sexson suspended
Two games, plus a fine (“undisclosed amount”) for “inappropriate actions in the bottom of the first inning during his club’s game against the New York Mets on Saturday, June 18, 2005 at Seattle’s Safeco Field.”
He’s out tonight and tomorrow unless he appeals (and really, why bother appealing? It’s not like the Padres are a division rival and the Devil Rays are coming to town next week).
It’ll be interesting to see what happens now. Spiezio would be the obvious choice, but unless he’s suddenly activated, it’s more likely to be Hansen, but also Hargrove might use Bloomquist or Ibanez (because he likes to play the field, as you remember).
Week #13 in Review
So that battle for the basement really didn’t turn out so well, eh. Despite stomach-punching those Athletics. Let’s play the Mets some more. Yeah, let’s play the Mets. And Pedro!
Vital Signs
On this Friday we find the Mariners 32-39. Still in third place. Barely. Three losses to the A’s means the Mariners are now a fraction of a game from last place. Despite winning four games, the Mariners dropped another pair of games in the standings, now 10.5 back of the Angels. Seems the Halos decided to lose only one game this week. According to Baseball Prospectus’ adjusted standings, the M’s are underperforming by a game and a half, and should really be in last place.
300 runs. It sounds like a lot. But it really isn’t. For the Mariners, it really sounds like a lot. The Mariners are one of three major league clubs yet to crack the 300-run barrier. They are the only one of those clubs handicapped with a designated hitter. Shameful, I say.
After a rather embarrassing series against the likewise run-deficient Athletics, the Mariners are now last in the American league in runs scored with 294. As a team, they are batting .256/.316/.380, compared to the league average of .266/.329/.419 — below average across the board. Their OBP ranks 13th in the league (squeaking past the Indians) and their SLG also ranks 13th (just above Oakland). They have hit 49 home runs, which ranks last in the league, tied with Oakland. They’ve drawn 199 bases on balls, 9th in the league, tied with the Orioles. Their .254 EqA ranks 27th in all of baseball, sandwiched between Atlanta, Arizona and Oakland.
The defense has allowed 311 runs, which makes them the 7th best team in the American League at keeping runs off the board. The gloves are turning 71.3% of balls in play into outs, which is the 2nd best rate in all of baseball. The overall the pitching staff ERA continues to shrink, now at 4.19. The starters are allowing 4.66 runs per nine innnings, while the relievers are at 3.22.
What goes up (a sweep of the National League New Yorkers) must come down (dropping 3 of 4 to lowly Oakland). In going 4-3, the Mariners outscored their opponents by four runs, 29-25. That they did so is pretty incredible when you consider the numbers. They allowed more total bases 102-83, more walks 27-13 and more home runs 5-3. Few things went right for the offense. The guy who led the team in total bases (Richie Sexson 12) only reached base 7 times all week. Ichiro! led the team in RBI. [dramatic pause] No knock on the great Ichiro!, but when he’s driving in all the runs, something just ain’t right with the offense.
Heroes
In a ray of sunshine, Adrian Beltre hit .368/.478/.474. You’ll note the on-base is higher than the slugging. That’s in part to the fact that Mr. Beltre walked 4 times. [dramatic pause] This is a very good thing, as Mr. Beltre had only walked 9 times prior to that all season. He further contributed a pair of doubles.
In 15 innings over 2 starts, Jamie Moyer allowed just 3 earned runs. However, he did walk more batters than he struck out, 4:3.
Not-so-much Heroes
Okay so its only be 2 games since returning from Don Baylor Jedi training school, but Bret Boone still stinks. In the last seven days, he has gone 1-for-11.
The Catfish may have been suckerpunched on Wednesday, but call it revenge for Monday. So Jeff Nelson enters a 3-2 game with two outs. His mission? Retire Mark Ellis of the .323 OBP against right-handed pitching. Ellis squibbles an infield single. Jason Kendall takes his .332 OBP against righties like Nelson and draws himself a walk. Mark Kotsay then proceeds to take his .389 SLG against right-handers and smacks a homer. Now 6-3 A’s. Nelson retired just one of four batters he faced and those three he failed to retire all scored.
Coming to a stadium near you
Get ready. Can you feel it? The tension is so palpable. The heated rivalry continues this weekend… Mariners versus Padres!
What? You say you don’t? I’m sorry, I don’t either.
San Diego remains the top of the NL West, despite a 7-14 June. After coming off a string of four straight wins (in which they allowed a total of 4 runs), they’ve dropped their last two games.
Monday then begins a three-game set with those pesky Athletics again. The Battle for the Basement continues.
Jake Peavy + Petco Field = I don’t expect the Mariners to cross 300 runs until after the weekend.
Future Forty Update
Since I’m going to be busy next weekend, I’ve updated the Future Forty a week early, so the July edition is now online. We have three additions (Jeff Clement, Luis Valbuena, and Thomas Hubbard) to the list, with Clement obviously being the most prominant of the trio. Valbuena is the starting second baseman for the Aquasox and, by most accounts, the best prospect on the team this year. Hubbard has rebounded from a miserable professional debut last year to become one of the best hitters in the Midwest League, but at age 23, well, he should be.
Other things of interest in the system include promotions for Adam Jones and Asdrubal Cabrera, as the two young shortstop prospects each move up a notch. Also, as mentioned the other day, Clint Nageotte is on the rehab trail, and so he leaves the overcrowded land of the injured prospects.
We’re now a bit past the halfway point of the minor league season, and the system is in a similar state to where we believed it was heading into the season. Adam Jones has taken the biggest step forward, and the addition of Clement and the continued progress of Cabrera has given the organization a boost in offensive talent. The pitching continues to be, well, bad. There’s Felix, there’s a big gap, there’s Livingston and Campillo, and then there’s… not a whole lot. The M’s clearly recognized that the lower level pitching is in terrible shape, focusing heavily on pitchers in the early rounds of this years draft. In stark contrast to the Gillick/Mattox years, the system is now certainly heavy on hitters and light on pitchers. As bad as the offense is now, at least there is reason for optimism in the future.
As always, this is a prime thread for minor league questions. I’ll do my best to answer as many as I can.
Game 71, A’s at Mariners
Kirk Saarloos vs Ryan Franklin, 1:35 pm matinee game.
The race to 300 runs is on, as the last two teams in the American League to reach the magic number match up. The M’s have scored 298 runs, the A’s 294. These offensive juggernauts both get to face undersized RHPs who couldn’t strike out your sister. Seriously. Kirk Saarloos has struck out 14 of the 290 batters he’s faced this year, a microscopic five percent. His K/9 is 1.90. That’d make a great ERA, but as a strikeout ratio, not so much. Franklin looks like Nolan Ryan in comparison with his 3.93 K/9. He strikeouts out 10 percent of all batters he faces. For comparison, Randy Johnson has struck out 30 percent of the batters to face him in his career.
So, today, look for lots of balls in play. The team that flashes the better leather probably wins.
Bavasi with fans, Lopez’s future
The Olympian just ran this story about Bavasi talking to some fans. Choice quotes:
“We’ve got to get things going, or you’re going to be talking to someone else.”
And this surprising Boone v Lopez comment:
“Boone will play today,” the general manager said, referring to Wednesday’s game. “But when Jose is in there, there’s a different energy. A different style of play. In the past four games, we turned three doubles plays we wouldn’t have turned. What we needed was the energy.”
If Boone regains his swing, the 21-year-old Lopez will return to Tacoma.
“Hopefully, it works for Bret,” Bavasi said. “If that doesn’t work out, we’ll have to punt and play Jose again.”
It’s couched in “different kind” but to acknowledge that about Boone’s defense… wow
Boone’s impending turnaround
This week’s PI article is on Boone, and his collapse from brief greatness. Boone’s response was to hit a single.
Since the last time I wrote something like this it went “if Sele keeps up like this, he’s clearly the guy to get dropped from the rotation” I can only hope this means we get 2001 Boone for the rest of the year (Sele now leads the team’s pitchers in VORP with 16.3).
It also touches on Boone’s Hall of Fame chances, but not in a whole lot of detail. Boone is not as good as players already enshrined, he’s not as good as other players who haven’t been voted in, and I don’t see how he has much of a chance. I resent the implication that Mariner fans, or any home team fans, have an obligation to support their team’s most marginal candidates zealously because they wore one uniform or another. Fandom can mean support without blindness.
Also, Clint Nageotte made an appearance in the Arizona league, went three innings and struck out six. He’s been out with back issues.
Game 70, Athletics at Mariners
LHP Zito v LHP Moyer. Both regarded as premier left-handed starters only a couple seasons back. Now they face off to see if the A’s might be able to crawl out of the cellar on the back of the M’s.