Win the World Series next year
I’m going to look at the same thing Dave did from a different starting point, and arrive at a far different place.
What are the barriers to the Mariners winning a World Series in 2006?
They’re not good, to begin. Stick with me, this is going to get better fast.
Huge Problem Solution 1 No starters after Felix 2 Starting rotation sucks 3 Offense sucks
That’s a little too general to do anything about. Let’s break that down further:
Problem Solution 1 Pineiro not good 2 No third starter 3 No fourth starter 4 No fifth starter 5 Poor offense at third 6 Poor offense at short 7 Poor offense at center 8 Poor offense at right 9 No catcher 10 No second baseman 11 No left fielder
To win the World Series, the team has to solve all of these.
In detail:
1. Pineiro’s not good. Whether Pineiro’s done has been hashed over here many times, and there are still some who believe he could still turn into an ace. He won’t. Even the supposedly good version of Pineiro last year was a league-average pitcher. If our goal was to get to .500, that would be fine. It’s possible that we might even look at him as a late-rotation guy in a championship team (certainly, many World Series winners have some random guys in the #4, #5 slots). But Joel Pineiro, in his remaining year here, isn’t going to be a pitcher who helps the team win it all. Ideally, you want to upgrade on Pineiro.
2-4. Moyer may return, filling a spot, and handled well, that’s a reasonable gamble.
Meche may come back on another one-year deal, but again, there’s no ace Meche left. There’s no point.
5. Beltre, Beltre, Beltre. A Beltre that’s somewhere between 2004 and last year’s a big contributor. And yet, counting on a rebound is unsettling.
6. Betancourt’s a ground-ball vacuum, and even if he hits like last year all year, he might be worth playing. He’s a fairly young player who doesn’t take walks and also doesn’t strike out excessively or hit for home run power. There’s offensive potential with Betancourt, and it’s reasonable to see that coming at this stage of his development.
7. I think I wrote once that Reed, reliant on average, lack of walks, but with power, would live and die on his ability to make contact, and that sometimes he’d look like the best player on the team and seem almost unstoppable, while other times he might seem as helpless as a kitten (not as cute, though). Reed has to hit better if they’re going to win it all next year (this would be called “a breakthrough season” if he has it). It might have been Dave.
8. Ichiro is a great player if he can hit .330 or higher. At .300 he’s not helping. I’m a great fan, but that’s just true.
9. Team needs a catcher.
10. Team needs a second baseman. Lopez has now had two extended trials at the major league level, and he hasn’t hit in either of them. Whether that’s coaching or what remains to be seen, but if he’s handed a job next year we’re going to be looking for something more than Luis Rivas style prospect flop-dom.
11. Morse could be a left fielder but then, so could you or me. That doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.
The offense doesn’t so much suck as it’s hugely incomplete. If you stuck randomly selected minor league free agents in there, it’d be horrible. Fortunately, the team’s not going to do that. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
So look at that list again, with some additions.
Problem Solution 1 Pineiro not good Hope for rebound 2 No third starter Bring back Moyer 3 No fourth starter 4 No fifth starter 5 Poor offense at third Hope for rebound 6 Poor offense at short Hope for development 7 Poor offense at center Hope for development 8 Poor offense at right Hope for rebound 9 No catcher 10 No second baseman Hope for development 11 No left fielder
That’s a lot of hoping already. But for a second, let’s just assume that the Mariners go with those solutions. That leaves us with:
| Problem | Solution | |
| 3 | No fourth starter | |
| 4 | No fifth starter | |
| 9 | No catcher | |
| 11 | No left fielder |
Fourth and fifth starters is a little misleading: adding two starters almost automatically moves Pineiro into the #5 slot. But for a moment, consider this as “the team needs two more starters.”
Let’s say the team decides to open the doors and spend like crazy: they’re going to get everyone (I know, I know, but bear with me for a minute).
A.J. Burnett signs for 5y, $50m
Millwood signs for 5y, $50m
Loaiza signs for 3y, $20m
Pineiro’s moved to the bullpen or Ellensburg
Jojima signs for 3y, $15m
Jacque Jones signs for 2y, $10m (yes, I’m with Dave on this)
Wow. What do we get?
Rotation: King Felix, A.J. Burnett, Loiaza, Millwood, Moyer
Lineup
C-R Jojima
1B-R Sexson
2B-R Lopez
SS-R Betancourt
3B-R Beltre
LF-L J. Jones
CF-L Reed
RF-L Ichiro
DH-L Ibanez
And then you throw some guys together for a decent bench, and the bullpen’s fine.
We’ve just gone tearing past $100m. And even though I tried to go a little high and long on those contracts, it’s likely that if the M’s went on a free-agent tear like that it would cost them even more than that. Some might argue that signing more than one premier free agent makes it easier to sign the next, but even if that were true, that’s not going to translate into a 15% off coupon.
This team wins 85 games easily, even without the crossed-finger guys coming through.
Could that team win a World Series? It could. As with all teams, there’s a lot of luck in who you draw and so on. But that’s a real, authentic contender.
What’s surprising, then, is that the gap between the team we have now and the team that could go worst-to-first isn’t that huge. The team wants to spend $85 million because the team’s ownership is a bunch of skinflint profiteers, but are the playoffs and a fair shot at World Series contention worth $20m? Even from a straight financial view, it might well be. And let’s be entirely clear: the team could run a $100m payroll and still be quite profitable. Asserting otherwise is silly: this team has revenue streams that make the Columbia River look like a neighborhood creek.
So there’s an off-season plan for you: go for it, and go for it now. All that money the team’s been socking away? Go find a hammer big enough to break open that piggy bank.
But we’ve discovered another problem that wasn’t on my original list.
Huge Problem Solution 1 No starters after Felix 2 Starting rotation sucks 3 Offense sucks 4 Tepid ownership
And as much as I’m all about proposing solutions and so forth, unless someone wants to buy the team and put me in Howard Lincoln’s seat (I’d be great, I promise, no scandals or anything) that’s one we can’t even touch.
This last problem is potentially the worst of all. If you want five cents, don’t ask for three. As long as the Mariners are content to put together high-but-not-too-high payrolls, content to authorize their baseball people to build 85-90 win teams, they’ll either succeed or fail at that. A 116-win juggernaut team out rising accidentally from this strategy is a miracle, and it’s not going to happen again.
The baseball people can get around this problem, and they’re doing it, in a way — by building a strong farm system, drafting well, signing international free agents like Felix, they hopefully can build a strong enough, young enough core that $80m can be spent around and take the team a lot farther. And then you hope that the powers-that-be don’t scratch their chins and ask “Why do we need to invest that money if we have three, four really good players only making $3m between them?”
Let’s say, then, that the $100m mark can’t be surpassed. Let’s say the bleating about $85m is real, for whatever reason. Bringing this team back to reality, you ditch some pitchers, Pineiro’s a starter instead of serving free coffee off I-90, and you’re back at Dave’s Plan or the real plan, whatever that is, and scraping.
What’s bad about blowing away the fictional budget here though is that this severely hampers their long-term flexibility while helping win in the short term. Say that Lopez doesn’t develop. You’re stuck with him until another one of the middle-infield guys develops. Reed never improves, you’re waiting on Adam Jones, and so on. The team would have a massive amount of money locked up in a set of players and only left-field would clear reasonably fast.
That’s not a good idea from a roster-construction standpoint, but that’s a whole other post.
Break $100 million. Get to the playoffs. Drink expensive champagne.
Here’s a novel idea — Moyer as a home starter
John McGrath in the Tacoma News Tribune (“Whupping the Times in M’s coverage for a couple years now”) writes that the M’s should consider Moyer as a home starter.
An equally good case can be made that Moyer figures to be as reliable as anybody else in a rotation whose only certain returning starter is 19-year-old Felix Hernandez.
My case? Go halfway.
Instead of paying Moyer $8 million to start 32 games, pay him $4 million to start 16 home games. He could accompany the team on trips – and be available to pitch in a pinch – but he’d concentrate on taking the mound at Safeco Field.
There’s no precedent for this arrangement; the closest parallel might’ve been the weekend passes extended to players with domestic military commitments.
That’s crazy! Who would think of such a thing? Besides me and Dave back in July.
Anyway, I this is a good idea and if gets any traction from distribution in print, so be it.
Predicted Moves
Yesterday, I did an overview of how I would attempt to reshape the roster if I ran the M’s. This post deals with what I actually think they are going to do. Some of these guesses are based on things I’ve heard through the grapevine, while others are just hunches. Don’t take everything written here as inside information. Don’t freak out if you hate what you read. When I did this last year, I got most of it wrong. I nailed the Beltre thing, but also had them trading Randy Winn, signing Matt Clement, and trading for Shea Hillenbrand. So, your mileage on how useful this post is may vary. But at least it’s interesting.
Onward ho.
Expected Free Agent Signings
Matt Morris: 4 years, $30 million
Kenji Jojima: 2 years, $10 million
Jamie Moyer: 1 year, $4 million
Jeromy Burnitz: 1 year, $4 million
Expected Trades
Gil Meche and Matt Thornton to New York for Carl Pavano
Julio Mateo to Florida for Ron Villone
That would leave the Mariners with a roster that looked something like this:
C Jojima
C Torrealba
1B Sexson
2B Lopez
2B Bloomquist
SS Betancourt
3B Beltre
LF Burnitz
LF Morse
CF Reed
RF Ichiro
DH Ibanez
DH DobbsSP1 Morris
SP2 Felix
SP3 Pavano
SP4 Pineiro
SP5 MoyerCL Guardado
Setup Soriano
Setup Sherrill
Relief Putz
Relief Villone
Relief Atchison
Long Harris
Hargrove gets his 12 man pitching staff, including two new name pieces for the rotation. The M’s interest in Pavano has been no secret. They think he’s perfect for Safeco Field, and they attribute most of his struggles in 2005 to the pressures of pitching in New York. According to the M’s, Pavano took less money than they offered him to sign with NY, and they aren’t likely to balk at assuming the rest of his contract.
Morris fits the veteran with a long history of success that they are looking for. A couple of years ago, the guy was one of the elite pitchers in the game. Due to a poor second half, a lot of teams, including the Cardinals, are shying away from him, so the M’s will likely view him as a bargain considering what other pitchers will get in this market.
Burnitz provides home run power from the left side, and as a heavy pull hitter who can exploit the right field corner, his swing is what the M’s are looking for. At 36, though, he’s a shell of what he was, and at this point, he’s not much of an asset as an everyday player.
Villone’s ERA in Florida was disastrous, but he actually pitched just fine. The Marlins weren’t impressed, though, and he’ll likely be available. Mateo is younger, cheaper, and will still be under their control for several years. The M’s have never really liked Mateo, as his inability to hold runners has relegated him to mop up duty, and the team would jump at the chance to have Villone back.
Jojima, we’ve talked about.
So, that’s what I expect the M’s to do. How do I feel about it?
Blah. I wasn’t a fan of Pavano last year, and I’m still not. Morris is on my guys-to-avoid list. Burnitz isn’t a big asset. I support the Jojima acquisition, but the rest of it doesn’t get me too excited. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
Public cost of Safeco Field
In an article today at Baseball Prospectus, Neil deMause writes about a May article in “The Journal of Sports Economics” by Judith Long (abstract, reading the article itself online costs $35*), in which she attempts to calculate the actual cost to the public of a stadium, which includes tax breaks (including property tax breaks), land value, infrastructure (building a new I-90 on-ramp next to the park (which I think is not included in this number).
Relevant to Mariner fans: public cost of Safeco Field stands at $553 million. This is a huge increase from the standard accounting (which is that the stadium cost $500m+, of which the public only picked up ~$400m).
Update! Reader Sal informed me that Long’s posted a lot of good stuff on her faculty website for your perusal. Thanks, Sal (and Judith Long for posting).**
* this is why, even though the Journal would seem to have a ton of stuff I should read and be up on, I don’t subscribe.
** sometimes I wish I’d gone to a really good school instead of the 50th-best university in the country***
*** Go Huskies!
Winter Meetings start
Jon Paul Morosi has two stories in successive issues of the P-I about the winter meetings, which get underway this week.
The Mariners have made initial inquiries on pitchers A.J. Burnett and Matt Morris, and outfielder Brian Giles, among other high-profile free agents. But this week is unlikely to include many notable signings, if any, since teams are unable to discuss contract terms until Friday.
Matt Morris? Danger!
Since (as the blockquote explains) teams can’t offer contracts to free agents until later this week, it’s trade speculation that occupies most of journalists’ time. Rumored targets include big-ticket players Carl Pavano, Carlos Delgado and Jim Thome.
Dave has said that he wouldn’t be surprised to see Pavano trade discussion between the M’s and Yankees, and it looks like that may be borne out. Regarding Pavano:
The Yankees have long been fond of Seattle starters Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro. Still, even that might not be enough to solidify speculation into a deal. “It makes sense,” one Yankees official said of the scenario, “but I don’t see it happening.”
That’s a good thing. Thirty million for three years of Carl Pavano is not something the Mariners need. Ditto for Thome: the only good thing about pursuing him would be the halt to the “let’s go get Ryan Howard” sentiment in the comments.
Regarding Delgado, I’m more circumspect. That’s a lot of money, he’s not a young player, and it would create certain lineup quandaries — but he can also really hit, is left-handed and would add badly needed power to the lineup. On balance, I don’t think I’d go after him myself, but I can see the thinking behind it.
Rookies of the Year announced
No Felix, of course.
Huston Street for the AL, and Ryan Howard for the NL (man, if only we’d traded for that guy). Read more
Dave’s Offseason Plan
The last two years, I’ve presented my offseason plan. After the 2003 season, the organization went as far away from my suggestions as humanly possible, and the team promptly went in the tank. Realizing the error of their ways, they actually made several of the moves I suggested after last offseason, and the team returned to championship form immediately. What? They still sucked? Well, that’s not my fault. I blame Canada.
So, with my track record firmly established, I now present to you the Third Annual Offseason Dave’s Plan. This is what I would attempt to do if the team decided to give me reign of the organization. The numbers after the players are their projected 2006 salaries in millions. This is actual 2006 payout, not annual average value of the contract. Obviously, on free agents, I had to guesstime how much it would cost to sign the player. Hopefully, I was somewhere in the ballpark. Onward ho.
Starting C Jojima 3.50
Backup C Torrealba 1.00Starting 1B Sexson 11.50
Backup 1B Helms 2.00Starting 2B Lopez 0.32
Backup 2B Bloomquist 0.75Starting SS Betancourt 0.35
Starting 3B Beltre 11.50
Starting LF J. Jones 5.00
Backup LF Bohn 0.32Starting CF Reed 0.32
Starting RF Ichiro 11.50
Backup RF Morse 0.32Starting DH Ibanez 4.25
Offense 49.11
#1 Starter Burnett 10.00
#2 Starter Felix 0.32
#3 Starter Loaiza 6.00
#4 Starter Moyer 3.00
#5 Starter Pineiro 6.30
#6 Starter Brown 2.00Closer Guardado 6.25
Setup Sherrill 0.32
Setup Soriano 0.32
Mid Relief Putz 0.50
Mid Relief Mateo 0.50
Long Relief Atchison 0.32Pitching 35.81
Scott Spiezio 3.35
Pokey’s Buyout 0.30
Wiki’s Buyout 0.25
Shiggy’s Buyout 0.33Sunk Costs 4.23
Total Commitments 89.15
Free Agent Signings
A.J. Burnett: 4 years, $46 million
Esteban Loaiza: 3 years, $18 million
Jacque Jones: 2 years, $10 million
Kenji Jojima: 2 years, $7 million
Jamie Moyer: 1 year, $3 million, incentives could push total value to $5 million
Kevin Brown: 1 year, $2 million, incentives could push total value to $5 million
Wes Helms: 1 year, $2 million
At $89 million on actual payroll, this is likely a little bit out of the M’s current budget. They’ve averaged about $85 million on actual payroll the past few seasons (they report a much higher number which includes numbers that no other team considers part of “payroll”). However, the team has consistently shown the ability to move payroll at the trade deadline, so if the team is not contending, it would not be a challenge to come in under budget. And, if the team is contending, well, then the extra outlay of a million here or there was well worth it, no?
We’ve discussed most of these moves in their own previous posts. For guys like Burnett, Jones, Jojima, and Brown, you should be well aware of why I support their acquisitions. A few quick notes on the others:
Esteban Loaiza, at worst, is an innings-eater in the middle of the rotation who can work deep into games without being terrible. At best, he’s one of the better starting pitchers in baseball. Consistency is a problem, and there’s no real way to know what you’re going to get with him, but the cost to acquire a player with such significant upside and limited downside, especially in a market that looks like its going to go insane, is too good to pass up. I think he’s this years Jon Lieber.
Wes Helms gives the team a reliable bat off the bench, the guy they think Greg Dobbs is but that he never will be. He hit .298/.356/.458 last year, which included a .300/.375/.506 mark against lefties. Since Jones will need to be platooned, Helms bat fits in nicely at DH against southpaws. He can play first or third and give them the pinch-hitting bat they’ve lacked the past several seasons.
T.J. Bohn is never going to be a full-time major league player, but the things that he does well right now will translate to the major league level immediately. He’s a strong defensive player with a great arm who can play any of the three outfield spots. He has good baserunning instincts and is deceptively fast, making him a stolen base threat as a pinch-runner. He has gap power and can drive the ball when he makes contact. He probably won’t be an asset as a hitter, but as a 5th outfielder, he’s better than Jamal Strong. If he continues to improve like he has, he could end up stealing some at-bats from Reed and Jones before the year is up.
So, there’s the plan. I’d estimate that this team would win somewhere between 85-95 games and contend for a playoff spot. These moves aren’t likely to happen, but this is what I would attempt to accomplish given a hypothetical situation where my opinions mattered.
Around the Papers
Times: The M’s hope AJ Burnett will bring his tour to Seattle.
PI: Moyer has many options. Also, the M’s wouldn’t allow teams to talk with Bavasi even if they asked pretty please with sugar on top.
News Tribune: Nothing since “M’s retain Guardado.”
Reds sold, what a stadium’s worth
Carl Linder, owner of the Reds, is going to sell them to a local group. News stories say the acquisition sets the value of the team at $270m.
Assume that’s true. In 2002, before the team moved into their new digs, they were worth $204m by Forbes estimates.
In 2004, having moved in, they were valued at $245m.
Even as the team flirted with year-to-year unprofitability, their value increased by about $70m in three years, with the only real difference in the franchise’s health being the new stadium. That’s a nice return.
Say what?
M’s pick up Guardado’s $6.25M option for next season. I’m floored. Better yet, Bavasi says they’ve discussed a contract extension to keep Eddie in Seattle after 2006. I’m double floored.