Game 97, Red Sox at Mariners
Kason Gabbard, major league debut, vs Felix Hernandez
Gabbard’s a 24-year-old lefty who was okay at Double-A Portland, got promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, and saw his ERA rise due a case of homerunitis. He’s your classic minor league lefty – throws in the 80’s, doesn’t miss bats, tries to survive by throwing strikes, which he hadn’t really done until this year. He’s their version of Bobby Livingston, just not quite as good.
M’s line-up:
Ichiro, RF
Bloomquist, 2B
Beltre, 3B
Sexson, 1B
Perez, DH
Everett, LF
Johjima, C
Betancourt, SS
Jones, CF
Giving Raul a day off against a lefty isn’t a bad idea – the problem is that the Mariners roster is constructed so poorly, thanks to Hargrove’s insistance on a 12 man pitching staff, that the team has no capable right-handed hitting outfielder on the roster, so Carl Everett starts in left field.
Everett’s terrible defensively and is hitting .164/.243/.269 against southpaws this year. The M’s, honestly, would be just as well off not using a DH and letting Eduardo Perez play left field. I’m not kidding. Felix could hit .164/.243/.269 against lefties.
And, the kicker, of course, is that Everett is still hitting 6th. Everyone knows Everett can’t hit lefties – Bavasi acquired Perez strictly so that Everett wouldn’t have to play against them. Meanwhile, the team has him hitting in front of Johjima and Betancourt. That’s insane.
And, of course, Willie hitting second.
Mike Hargrove is not an idiot. I’m sure he’s a reasonable man. But he’s terrible at assembling line-ups (as well as pretty much every other strategical task expected of a manager). For your enjoyment, this back-and-forth is copied from last night’s game thread:
James T said:
July 21st, 2006 at 10:25 pm e
I used to be impressed by how well he would deploy the Orioles’ bullpen to hold leads the few times they got ahead of the Sox in the years when Hargrove was the O’s manager.
JMHawkins said:
July 21st, 2006 at 10:48 pm e
#355: I think the problem is Grover’s still calling for the same guys from his old Orioles clubs. Jim Slaton’s down in the bullpen trying to match names as best he can.
No out, two on, Bullpen phone rings
Hargrove (over phone): “Get Calvin Maduro warmed up!â€Â
Slaton (muttering): “Maduro? We ain’t got no Maduro. Hey, Mateo, get warm!â€Â
A walk, a single, and a HR later, Mateo enters the game.
Two walks and a HR later, the bullpen phone rings again
Hargrove: “I need Jorge Julio!â€Â
Slaton: “Julio’s already in the game.â€Â
Hargrove: “What? Fine, get Yorkis Perez warm.â€Â
Slaton: “Perez? You pinch hit him last inning for Jones.â€Â
Hargrove: “I did? What about Sean Douglass?â€Â
Slaton (mutters): “We ain’t got no Douglass. You mean Sean Green?
Hargrove: Groom? No, I don’t want Buddy Groom, he’s a lefty. Who else we got left out there?â€Â
Slaton: “J.J. Putz, he’s rested.â€Â
Hargrove: “B.J. Ryan? No, I told you, I don’t want a Lefty. Let’s leave Jorge in the game.â€Â
Slaton: “Fine. Hey Fruto, get some more coffee. Gonna be a long night.â€Â
Game 96, Red Sox at Mariners
Jamie Moyer vs Kyle Snyder, 7:05 pm
Kyle Snyder today, Kason Gabbard tomorrow, and Jon Lester on Sunday – not exactly what you expect when the Boston Red Sox roll into town. Snyder was claimed off waivers from the KC Royals earlier this year, so that should tell you something right there. He’s given up 8 runs in 9 2/3 innings since joining the Red Sox, but he does have a 1/12 BB/K, so there’s at least a reason to think they might see something in him.
Also, Jose Lopez isn’t with the team – he’ll be back Sunday. Personal matter. You know what that means – a weekend of ignition with Willie Ballgame. Let’s just pray he’s not hitting second – of course he is.
Classic Hargrove Line-Up for this one. Yes, Everett’s still here and hitting 6th. No, there’s still not a single legitimate reason why.
Buyers Or Sellers – Why Choose?
The non-waiver trading deadline is now 10 days away. Teams have a week and a half to reshape their rosters, either for the stretch run, or for next year and beyond. The trading deadline is an annual exercise in hype with a lackluster payoff, as I don’t remember the last time the deadline came and went when we had a flurry of deals that could actually be classified as exciting.
The local angle, of course, is that the Mariners have 10 days to decide whether to be buyers or sellers. They’re only 5 games out of first place in a division where no one looks particularly good, and despite the recent losing road trip, they played highly competitive baseball with two of the better teams in the American League. Fans have set through several miserable seasons, and the team is wary of throwing in the towel on what still has the potential to be an exciting September that might just draw them back to Safeco Field.
The counter argument is pretty obvious, however. While the team is still not out of the race, they’re still in last place, trailing three teams, and are just 4-10 in July. They also have the toughest remaining schedule of any AL West team, playing Boston, Cleveland, and Toronto before they have to decide what to do with the roster. Considering the opponents, its unlikely the team goes on a 8-1 or 7-2 run that would catapult them right back into the thick of things, so the odds are that this team is sitting in a similar or worse position when the deadline rolls around.
Thus, Bill Bavasi and company are looking at having to decide to add players to a team in last place or remove players from a team within striking distance of a division title. The big question in the front office the next 10 days will be “buyers or sellers?”
In my opinion, this is a great chance for the Mariners to show some creativity for the first team in, well, ever, and steal a page from Billy Beane’s playbook. Don’t choose – be both buyers and sellers.
The team is too close to the division title to waive the white flag, and for all our opinions on the relative strengths of the teams in the division, absolutely anything can happen in a two month stretch of baseball. However, the team also has a strong core to build around, and the last thing the organization needs to be doing is to remove players from the roster who could be substantial parts of the ballclub in 2007. So, instead of taking the normal route of either unloading players or picking up marginal improvements at the cost of young talent, I suggest that the Mariners spend the next ten days rebuilding the guys around the core by both shipping out current players from the roster and bringing in new faces to help contribute right away.
I’d define the core group of players, who I’m not interested in moving, as Felix, Ichiro, Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima, Jones, Clement, Putz, Soriano, and Lowe. I also am willing to accept the fact that the Mariners will never trade Raul Ibanez, so he’s included in the core by default. He’s just not getting moved while the current management structure is in place.
That means I’m willing to move significant talent off the major league roster. Gil Meche, George Sherrill, Jeremy Reed, Adrian Beltre, and Richie Sexson will all draw interest from different ballclubs. However, the goal is not to simply unload these guys (well, not all of them, anyways), but to use their value (and some of the non-essentially minor league guys) to acquire players who fit the team’s needs down the stretch and next season. Easier said than done? Probably. It would take an epic series of moves and a willingness to change up a roster in mid-season, but in the end, I think the team could be better both now and going forward, if they’re willing to take a few chances. And yes, this is almost all 100% speculation. I’ve heard some backdoor rumblings about potential matches for some of our players, but don’t take any of this as legitimate possibilities.
Step 1: Send Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, and Julio Mateo to San Diego for Ryan Klesko and Dave Roberts.
Step 2: Send Richie Sexson to San Francisco for Todd Linden and Steve Finley.
Step 3: Send Gil Meche and George Sherrill to the Atlanta Braves for Wilson Betemit
Step 4: Send Wladimir Balentien, Yung-Chi Chen, and Cesar Jimenez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Sean Casey and Kip Wells
This would leave the M’s with the following line-up for the rest of 2006:
1. Ichiro, RF
2. Lopez, 2B
3. Ibanez, LF/DH
4. Betemit, 3B
5. Casey, 1B
6. Johjima, C
7. Snelling, LF/DH
8. Betancourt, SS
9. Roberts, CF
The bench would consist of Finley, Bloomquist, Perez, Quiroz, and Linden holding the job until Klesko gets healthy. Everett would be released, and Rivera and Jones would be returned to the minors.
The rotation would be Felix-Moyer-Washburn-Wells-Pineiro. The bullpen would be Putz-Soriano-Lowe-Cruceta-Fruto-Woods, and if Cruceta pitched well (read: threw strikes) out of the pen, he’d take Pineiro’s spot in the rotation.
This team isn’t significantly better than what the M’s are putting on the field right now. You could argue that they’re a little bit worse. Casey/Betemit are an improvement over what we’ve gotten from Sexson/Beltre, but the dropoff from Meche to Kip Wells is pretty staggering. The pitching is certainly worse, and Hargrove would hate a bullpen with only one lefty, but the offense would be significantly improved. Overall, I think the new roster would be about as competitive, if different in character, than the current roster.
So why make the moves? Financial freedom. At the end of the season, you’d lose the contracts of Sean Casey ($9 million), Steve Finley ($8 million), and Ryan Klesko ($10.5 million), who you essentially swapped out Beltre and Sexson’s deals for. That’s $27 million you wouldn’t have had available to play with had you kept the status quo. $27 million buys a lot of talent.
In the process, you’ve acquired a guy who you think can be your third baseman for the next several years and a stop-gap center fielder to allow Adam Jones to return to Tacoma.
Looking ahead to ’07, you’d have a complete offense minus first base, which is the easiest position in baseball to find a competant role player. Depending on what you wanted to do with Reed/Jones in center, you could try to retain Roberts or pick up another veteran CF to hold the job a bit longer, but that shouldn’t cost much money.
You’d have a rotation of Felix-Washburn-three holes, and a bullpen that lacked a lefty setup guy. But once you remove the salaries of Moyer, Everett, Pineiro, and Wells, in addition to the $27 million you saved by letting Klesko, Finley, and Casey walk, you’re staring at about $40-$45 million in available cash to fill out the pitching staff.
$40 to $45 million. I’m pretty sure the M’s could find three starting pitchers, a first baseman, and a lefty setup guy for $40 million.
It would take a bold series of moves to reshape the roster that dramatically, but this team is capable of making transactions that would both avoid waiving the white flag in 2006 and still allowing them to improve their chances of contending in 2007 and beyond.
Game Thread, Las Vegas at Tacoma
The Las Vegas 51s bring their prospect-a-thon to Tacoma to face suddenly effective Cha Baek. Baek has a 3.02 ERA, but he’s basically become the Triple-A version of Jamie Moyer at this point – crafty enough to let guys get themselves out through very little skill of his own. Beats last year’s Cha Baek, though.
But seriously, this Las Vegas line-up is crazy: James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, and Joel Guzman are all future major leaguers, and Delwyn Young might be. Should be a fun test for Baek.
As always, you can catch the greatness of commentary that is Mike Curto streaming live online.
AL West Trade Value
Since everyone enjoyed the concept last offseason, and last week’s Mariner spinoff, I’ve decided to do another in the series of Trade Value posts. This time, it’s the AL West Trade Value. For the whole rules, see version 1.0 from last winter.
Essentially, the goal is to look at which teams are setup best for the future in our division – stopping at 50 players is pretty arbitrary, and so don’t take this as a gospel, but it does paint a pretty good picture of who has valuable talent hanging around and who does not. Ignoring the whole payroll/front office ability issue, and just based on current talent in the organization, things look good in Seattle and Anaheim, and not quite as hot in Oakland or Texas. But I’d argue that Oakland and Texas have the better management teams in place, so let’s not feel to sorry for them.
Also, I took a slightly different approach to assessing value on this list than I did with last week’s Mariner-only list, so the order won’t match exactly. This list leans a bit more towards players who provide a true competitive advantage in the division, whereas the Mariner-centric list was geared more towards filling out our roster going forward.
Anyways, on to the list, and apologies if the formatting doesn’t work perfectly, but I’ve never mastered the pre tags.
1 Felix Hernandez SEA
2 John Lackey LAA
3 Mark Teixeira TEX
4 Dan Haren OAK
5 Howie Kendrick LAA
6 Vladimir Guerrero LAA
7 Ichiro Suzuki SEA
8 Ervin Santana LAA
9 Jose Lopez SEA
10 Rich Harden OAK
11 Brandon Wood LAA
12 Jered Weaver LAA
13 Nick Swisher OAK
14 Rafael Soriano SEA
15 Barry Zito OAK
16 Ian Kinsler TEX
17 Michael Young TEX
18 Huston Street OAK
19 F. Rodriguez LAA
20 Adam Jones SEA
21 Bobby Crosby OAK
22 Hank Blalock TEX
23 Y. Betancourt SEA
24 Erick Aybar LAA
25 Mike Napoli LAA
26 J.J. Putz SEA
27 Eric Hurley TEX
28 Juan Rivera LAA
29 Eric Chavez OAK
30 Jeff Clement SEA
31 John Danks TEX
32 Nick Adenhart LAA
33 Travis Buck OAK
34 Vicente Padilla TEX
35 Gil Meche SEA
36 Thomas Diamond TEX
37 Edison Volquez TEX
38 Kenji Johjima SEA
39 Casey Kotchman LAA
40 Dan Johnson OAK
41 J. Duchscherer OAK
42 Daric Barton OAK
43 Joe Blanton OAK
44 Raul Ibanez SEA
45 Kevin Millwood TEX
46 Ryan Feierabend SEA
47 Mark Lowe SEA
48 Orlando Cabrera LAA
49 Mark DeRosa TEX
50 Jeff Mathis LAA
Some notes from the list:
The Angels have all kinds of talent. While they have 14 guys on the list, 10 of those are in the top 28, and 6 of those are in the top 13. They have 4 of the top 8 guys on the list. And I’d imagine most Angel fans think I’m underselling Brandon Wood. The Angels probably have the best core to build a roster around in the major leagues.
The A’s are in trouble. They have 12 guys on the list, but 4 of those are in the 40-50 range, and 2 of their top 4 (Harden and Zito) are huge question marks for the future. It’s not easy to look at the A’s current talent base and see how they’re going to contend going forward, but Billy Beane cures a lot of ills. If the A’s keep winning for the rest of the decade, it will be his greatest triumph yet.
The Rangers might be in worse shape than the A’s. Only three guys in the top 20, and nearly half the guys on their list are young pitchers with no major league track record. Attrition could thin their talent base out pretty quickly. The Rangers are basically counting on their four young arms to develop – if even two of them fail to make any impact in the majors, it spells trouble for Texas.
The M’s are sitting in a pretty nice spot. They’ve got significant young, cheap talent on the roster, plus some guys performing well in the majors at salaries far below market value. Once the next wave of guys from Tacoma reach the majors, there won’t be much additional help from the farm system coming for a couple of years, but the team has a strong enough talent base to build around. Their problem continues to be choosing the correct role players to fill out the roster, and the M’s clearly have the worst management team in the division.
Also, the bottom of the list could be populated by any number of guys. There are a whole host of guys that you could make a case for over Mathis and I’d basically shurg my shoulders and say “yea”. Laird, Mench, Wilkerson, Snelling, Matthews, Choo, Figgins, and Morales could all have a case to one degree or another. So try not to get too caught up in over who got snubbed – once you get down that far on the list, there’s a lot of guys of comparable value. It’s the guys at the top who are going to decide who is in charge of this division for the next few years.
Right now, the edge goes to Anaheim. Or Los Angeles. Whatever.
On the possibility of a Hillenbrand pick-up
The Blue Jays tossed Shea Hillenbrand aside after he tussled with the front office (it’s a weird story). I’ve already seen suggestions the M’s should pick him up since he’s free.
There are a couple things Shea can help a team with. He’s a right-handed hitter who’s about average for average and OBP, and he’s got a little more power than an average hitter. For a corner infielder, though, that’s not particularly good. It is, obviously, better than we’re getting out of our corners. He’s historically hit left-handers a lot harder than right-handers.
If the M’s picked him up, you’d play him at DH against righties and spot him at 1B/3B.
There’s a big problem with that, though: if they were going to use someone to spot at the corners, they’d be using Dobbs, but they’re not, as they haven’t used Petagine or Perez either. Someone other than Sexson or Beltre has started a game at a corner five times this year.
And if they’re looking for someone to DH against righties, Dobbs could outhit Everett at this stage and, as we’ve suggested elsewhere, there are various other ways you can andjust the lineup so Everett sits. For the time being, it appears that Hargrove is set on using Everett until his toy’s taken away from him, and for whatever reason, the team hasn’t taken the toy yet.
So then you have to assume the M’s are willing to accept another clubhouse guy to make a matched pair with C-Rex, and if you thought Carl was trouble when he thought he was being screwed with before, well… look out, because now the team would have one player complaining every time a lineup card didn’t have their name in it. If that means Hargrove starts trying to weasel them both in, that’s no good.
Hillenbrand wouldn’t solve any problem the Mariners have, and might make them worse. If he got picked up, they’d likely be making more moves than just offering him a deal.
Everett’s 2007 option
Since this comes up in nearly every thread, I thought I’d attempt to answer it clearly, on the front page.
We believe that Carl Everett’s option for next year vests at about 450 plate appearances. That’s been where the M’s have set the playing-time bar for other contracts, and from what we know about the contract, it fits. He has ~320 right now, and if he continues to DH even against righties only, he’ll vest.
The option year, if triggered, is another year for the same amount of money, or about $3.4m. The club has to buy it out if he doesn’t reach the playing time quota, or they could decide to pick the option up for next year anyway.
There you go.
Game 95, Mariners at Yankees
10:05 AM here, and no TV (long rant about MLB’s stupidity w/r/t broadcast rights here). As a result, I’ll probably end up watching to see if Zach Duke can continue his resurgence, if Zito can whup the Orioles, or… well, probably not the Nationals-Marlins game.
Meche v Raaaaaaaaaaandy Johnson. Yup.
Interestingly, Jones stays in the lineup:
RF-L Ichiro
3B-R Beltre
2B-R Lopez
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
DH-R Perez (!)
SS-R Betancourt
C-R Rivera
CF-R Jones
Tonight’s Yankees lineup only has four guys who suck: their 6-9 hitters are Phillips/Cabrera/Guiel/Green.
Game 94, Mariners at Yankees
If I had to pick today’s games most unlikely to turn into a duel beteween pitchers, this would be it.
RHP Joel Pineiro v RHP Sidney Ponson.
Yeaaaaaaaaaagh.
On the other hand, we get an only mildly infuriating lineup:
RF-L Ichiro!
3B-R Beltre
2B-R Lopez
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
DH-B Everett
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
CF-R Jones
The Yankees oblige us by playing Miguel Cairo, who sucks, Bernie Williams, who isn’t good anymore, Phillips, who sucks, Cabrera, who sucks, Nick Green, who sucks, and Kelly Stinnett, who sucks.
Bad pitching versus bad hitting: who will triumph?
Tying up loose ends
A whole bunch of questions flooding the inbox, so it’s time for a notes post.
1. Trading for Alfonso Soriano would be a lousy, lousy idea. Yes, he’s having a good season in Washington, but it is the National League (and while the difference is probably overstated, the AL is significantly better this year, and that has to be acounted for), and Soriano is exactly the type of hitter that Safeco is harshest on. An optimistic expected performance from Soriano for the last two months of ’06 would be something like .280/.330/.500, and he could easily come in under that. Meanwhile, the optimistic expected performance of Chris Snelling would probably be in the .300/.360/.450 range, which is almost equal in value. Plus, Snelling is free, both in terms of salary and in terms of players needed to acquire him.
The M’s don’t need to trade for an LF/DH. They just need to use the ones already in Tacoma.
2. A few weeks ago, I noted the team had a glaring need for another strikeout pitcher in the pen to give Hargrove another option in the middle innings to use in situations where baserunners needed to be stranded. Since the end of the bullpen was made up of contact pitchers with mediocre control, the team had a significant weakness and really needed another reliever.
Enter Mark Lowe. 20 batters faced, 85 pitches, 57 strikes, 6 strikeouts, 6 groundballs. He put the first three batters he faced as a major league pitcher on board, and has since retired 14 of the last 17. He looked fantastic last night, going right after Rodriguez and Posada and getting out of a big jam. Despite his inexperience, he’s easily shown enough to be given that fourth reliever role, coming in to bail starters out of tough situations and getting strikeouts when needed.
Lowe’s a perfect example of why this new “the cost of good relievers is skyrocketing!” theory is nonsense. Relief pitching is the easiest job in baseball, and there are literally good arms in every minor league system who could come up and do the job well right now. You’d think organizations would learn when year after year, the leaderboard of elite relievers is cluttered with names their mothers wouldn’t have recognized before the season started.
The Mariners bullpen is a great example of this – J.J. Putz was a fringe prospect who is now an all-star caliber closer, George Sherrill was signed out of the independent leagues and is about as tough on lefties as anyone alive, and now the M’s look to have struck gold with Mark Lowe, who was a 5th round draft pick two years ago and had an unimpressive minor league resume coming into the year. Only Rafael Soriano was considered any kind of special talent.
Building a bullpen isn’t hard, just because Buster Olney tells you it is. And that is also why, during the offseason, the M’s need to give Mark Lowe another run as a starter. He has three pitches that he’s commanding right now, and while a move back to the rotation will cost him a little bit of velocity, he has some to give. It’s worth finding out if he could be effective for 7 innings sitting at 90-93 instead of one inning at 94-96. I’m fine leaving Lowe in the bullpen for the rest of the year while he adjusts to life in the major leagues, but he should enter Spring Training of 2007 in the hunt for a spot in the rotation.
3. Carl Everett is 19 for 106 since the calendar struck June, a .179 batting average, and we all know he doesn’t walk or hit for power. His continued presence in the line-up is a complete and utter joke, and a massive black stain on the organization. There’s literally no defense for not removing him from the job. The M’s are essentially going to war with an automatic out in the easiest position to field a hitter in baseball. Just ridiculous.
4. Willie Bloomquist has a .227 EqA, the worst of his already unimpressive career. He has four extra base hits all season. And this is the guy Mike Hargrove thinks we need to get into the line-up two to three days a week.
5. Thanks to the recent skid of 9 losses in the last 11 games, the Mariners chances of making the playoffs have taken a pretty significant beating. BP’s Playoff Odds Report has them at 5%, while coolstandings.com pegs them at 8%. I’d say they’re still a little bit higher than both of those, probably closer to 15-20%, but they aren’t great. While we still don’t have to make the buyers or sellers decision right now, we’re probably leaning towards sellers at this point.
6. How much is this starting pitcher worth to you on the open market?
28 years old, RHP, made the all-star team this year, averaged 200 IP for the last 5 years, posted ERA+ of 115 and 127 in the past two years, while posting a strikeout rate 20% better than league average, a home run rate 12% better than league average, and a walk rate 10% worse than league average. He’s got inconsistently good stuff but doesn’t always have command of it, but has managed to post low ERA’s and ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league in strikeouts the past two years. He also led the league in shutouts the past two seasons, though he has pitched in a pretty extreme pitcher’s park.
Sound like exactly the kind of pitcher everyone is hoping that Gil Meche has turned into, right? Meche’s rates this year are actually a bit worse (his K/9 is 16% better than average, walk rate is 18% worse than average, and his HR/9 is 6% worse than league average), but the profile is basically the same.
So, how much do you think that durable Gil Meche clone is worth, the one with an all-star team under his belt and 5 years of pretty consistent performance missing bats and living with the command issues? And are you worried that the performances have come in a pitcher’s park?
No? Neither were the Texas Rangers, when they signed that pitcher, Chan Ho Park, to a 5 year, $65 million dollar contract after the 2001 season.
Forget Jason Schmidt or Chris Carpenter – Chan Ho Park circa 2001 is almost an exact clone of what people are hoping Gil Meche has become. And they wonder why I’m against a contract extension…