Worst Play Of His Career
Ichiro, we’ve written so many good things about you over the years that hopefully you’ll forgive me for this next sentence:
That was the dumbest thing I’ve seen on a baseball field in a long, long time.
If you missed it, Ichiro was on second base, with Lopez over at first and Branyan hitting, with two outs in the 7th inning. The team was down 4-2. Ichiro tried to steal third, and was thrown out by a couple of feet to end the inning.
As a tactical decision, attempting to steal third in that situation is indefensible. He’s already in scoring position, and he’s really fast, so he’s going to score on pretty much any base hit to the outfield. Russ Branyan, as you might know, is not a particularly big threat to get an infield hit. The situations where Ichiro would be able to take advantage of moving up in that situation, scoring on a play where he wouldn’t be able to from second base, are basically limited to passed balls and wild pitches. Those happen too infrequently to bet on in almost every situation.
In the average example of that situation, a successful steal of third base adds about 0.5% to the team’s chances of winning. Getting thrown out removes about 7.5% from the team’s chances of winning. The out is fifteen times more costly than getting in safely is beneficial. In order to justify the decision, Ichiro would have had to be successful 94% of the time – that’s the break even number. For it to be a real value added decision, it’s more like 100%. There had to be essentially no chance he would get thrown out in order to make the risk worth the reward. And that’s in a situation where we assume that everyone else in a position of influence is average.
It gets worse. Jose Molina, the Yankees catcher, is really good at throwing out runners. For his career, he’s thrown out 40% of all attempted base-stealers. There was a left-handed batter in the box, making it an easier throw fro the catcher. That left-handed batter, Russ Branyan, is a pretty good hitter. Oh, and the count was 2-0, making it very likely that Branyan was going to get a fastball over the plate at some point during the at-bat. Russ Branyan kills fastballs over the plate.
Even if Josh Wilson was hitting, Ichiro had no business trying to take third. With Branyan up there, in a hitters count, representing the go-ahead run, running from second base is about as dumb a decision as you can make on a baseball field.
That was incredibly dumb, and it cost the M’s a pretty significant part of their chance at winning the game. If he wasn’t an MVP caliber player, it’s a benchable offense. I might bench him tomorrow anyway. Holy crap was that stupid.
Game 117, Yankees at Mariners
7:05, Sergio Mitre (whee) versus Luke French (yay!)
I’m sortof losing my ability to care about the lineups that Wak runs out, so feel free to post them in the comments.
Nick Franklin Signs
He ended up getting about $120k over slot, which isn’t terrible. Ackley would figure to get a lot more, though we probably aren’t going to know exactly how much until right around the deadline Monday evening.
Franklin, to refresh everyone’s memory, was the 27th overall pick and was one of the better prep shortstops available, projecting to stay at the position long-term. He’s a switch-hitter, and like many in that category, his left-handed swing is a bit different from his right-handed one, with a bit of an uppercut to it. My guess is that he’ll get a few games in at Peoria and then move on up to Pulaski. I’m not sure at this point whether he’ll be Noriega’s double play partner or if they’ll just try moving Noriega to Everett, pushing Phillips to a utility role.
A quick word on Snell
After his second start, here and outside these comfy confines we heard a lot of worry about what the team should do with him: trade him, put him in Tacoma to work out some issues, or what.
And I’d just like to say: chill.
Over his career, Snell’s been throwing about 60% fastballs, 30-35% breaking stuff, and 5-10% changeups. We could argue about whether or not that’s the best thing for him, but hang on for a second.
On the 13th, when he ended up having eight runs charged to him, he threw 109 pitches. 66% of them were fastballs, 13% changeups, and 20% sliders. When you look his inning-by-inning performance, he ran about two-thirds strikes until the seventh, when he was out of it and couldn’t get an out.
Or:
1st: Every batter gets a first-pitch fastball, only 2 pitches not fastballs all inning
2nd: Cano gets a change, Hairston gets a slider and is the only hitter to see mostly non-fastballs
3rd: second time through the lineup. Fastballs.
4th: More of a mix, lotta fastballs.
5th: Changes and fastballs.
6th: Mix, lotta fastballs.
I don’t count this start against Snell at all. The team absolutely needed him to get at least six innings, and their plan was to start almost every at bat throwing fastballs for strikes (or high-and-in-to-righties balls), and then leaning heavily on the fastball. And Snell’s fastball isn’t that great. It could be better. Okay, it’s not that good. You’ve seen him, you know his out pitch is going to be the breaking stuff, right? That slider’s brutal. Going to a game plan that moves off mixing that pitch in effectively might be worth it for the team, but it makes Snell a worse pitcher.
Give it a while. Two games doesn’t make a failure.
The Jack Wilson All-Stars
Until Beltre recovers, the left side of the infield consists of three guys – two Jacks and two Wilsons. For some lighthearted weekend fun in honor of that, here’s a lineup of all the Mariners who were either named Jack or Wilson.
P – Jack Lazorko
C – Dan Wilson
1B – Jim Wilson
2B – Jack Perconte
3B – Jack Hannahan
SS – Jack Wilson
LF – Mike Wilson
CF – Glenn Wilson
RF – Josh Wilson
The outfield’s a little shorthanded, and since there are actually only eight players I took the liberty of calling up Mike Wilson from Tacoma for the purposes of this list. In reality, this past spring training may have been the high point of his career, and I doubt he will ever play in the majors (for this franchise or any other). At best, maybe one day he’s given a Mickey Lopez callup before going off to Japan or something.
Glenn Wilson only played right field his half-season with the Mariners (until being traded to bring back Darnell Coles), but he did play center earlier in his career. Josh Wilson has yet to play outfield in the majors, but he did get sent out to right field once last year at Indianapolis, which makes him the volunteer to get squeezed out of the infield spots. Due to the lack of a bullpen, with his pitching experience he’s also the logical candidate to spell Lazorko.
But for one start at designated hitter, Jim Wilson was only ever used as a pinch-hitter by the Mariners, and all told he went 0-for-8 with the team. He was a first baseman in the minors, though.
Edit: Silly me, how could I forget Wilson Valdez? He’s got the requisite appearance in left field, too, in 2007 with the Dodgers, so you can swap him out for Mike Wilson.
Game 116, Yankees at Mariners
Pettitte v RRS. Sure am looking forward to seeing Sweeney suck it up again! Woooooooooooooo!
Hey, open question: assume Sweeney’s around for his contribution to a winning atmosphere and so on.
How good do the M’s have to be this year to eliminate the Designated Hugger position? What about next year – do they start spring training with or without?
Game 115, Yankees at Mariners
Stupid Yankees. Ian Snell’s gotta get late in the game, or it’s Batista for us.
Yankees are missing Alex tonight, which is great, because then no one has to boo and everyone not booing doesn’t have to sigh and roll their eyes.
Meanwhile, on the M’s side, Wakamatsu hates me.
RF-L Ichiro!
CF-R Gutierrez
2B-R Lopez
DH-0 Sweeney
1B-L Branyan
C-R Johjima
3B-R Hannahan
SS-R Wilson (the new one)
LF-L Saunders
Tonight’s bullpen
Lowe’s the only one out by virtue of having pitched in three straight, leaving
RHP Aardsma
RHP Batista
RHP Jakubauskas
RHP Kelley
LHP Olson
RHP White
Olson hasn’t pitched in three days. Batista and Jakubauskas both have pitched once, and Batista’s was two games ago.
Making your bullpen deptch chart look liiiikke…
LHP Olson
RHP Batista
RHP Jakubauskas
RHP Kelley (only 24p the last two nights)
RHP Aardsma
RHP White
Yow.
Beltre out, again, wince-inducing
According to Shannon Drayer (on Twitter! how are we supposed to cite Twitter inline?), Beltre’s got a torn testicle and in the next two days we’ll know if it requires surgery, which would sideline him for a month. I shuddered just typing that.
Also, we don’t know about Wilson’s hamstring yet, and Josh Wilson’s been activated. Baker says Jack’s injury is a “Grade 1 tear” but it sounds like they might keep him active. Not sure what the roster moves are going to end up being.
That Was Some Good Baseball
Forget chicks dig the longball. While avoiding the strong desire to go to bed, Amy watched the last five innings of the game with me and my mom last night and proclaimed “that was fun.”
Say what you want about the offense, but there’s something to be said for watching a bunch of terrific defensive players put on a show. We can officially stop calling Jack Hannahan a third baseman now – he’s just a really good defensive infielder, no matter where you stick him. Kotsay’s diving double play was something else. Ichiro’s throw. Johnson’s throw. Beltre charging the bunt.
For as much as we’ve been banging the drum for defense for years, I think everyone who watched last night’s game gets it. The pitching was good, but the defense stole the show. Run prevention – it’s not just about the guy on the mound.