Game 85, Rangers at Mariners
Felix Day.
This is going to be an important series. If the M’s do well against the Rangers, particularly if they can sweep, it would nearly eliminate one of their divisional rivals and set the team up to run with the Angels. Which in turn could make the trade deadline reallly interesting.
What better way to start it off than with Felix on the mound for the Mariners?
M’s Sign Steven Baron
So, the whole drama surrounding the M’s third pick in the draft is over, as the M’s signed him today for $980,000 according to some guy named Conor Glassey. That’s $44,000 more than the recommended slot bonus for the 33rd pick in the draft. I’m sure you remember that we were one of many people to report the rumor of a pre-draft deal that the M’s struck with Baron, agreeing to select him about 25-50 spots ahead of where he would go otherwise in exchange for signing a deal below slot.
Obviously, that didn’t happen. Was there never really a pre-draft deal in place? Did Baron back out of his commitment after the M’s selected him in order to get a larger signing bonus? All we know are whispers, and now, they don’t really matter that much. He’s a Mariner, and he’ll be reporting to Pulaski to begin his professional career.
Bullpen Options
So, the last few days put the spotlight on the fact that this collection of bullpen arms has been overachieving all season. There are some good arms down there, no doubt, but they don’t throw enough strikes, and given the amount of mid-90s fastballs down there, they don’t miss as many bats as you might think. This isn’t a championship caliber bullpen, unfortunately, and if the M’s are going to make a run this year or next, they’ll need to change a few faces around.
Internally, there are several candidates that could help the relief corps down the road. Everyone knows about Josh Fields and Phillippe Aumont, the organization’s pair of hard throwing first rounders with strikeout stuff, working on their craft in Double-A West Tennessee. However, they have a teammate that you probably don’t know that much about, but could beat them to the majors and might even be more important to the pen.
His name – Nick Hill. A lefty with a good college career, he was the team’s seventh round pick in 2007, though on talent, he should have gone quite a bit higher. Teams passed on him because he attended college at West Point, and as a member of the U.S. Military Academy, teams were unsure of whether he’d be able to obtain the necessary waiver to avoid active duty during wartime to pursue a career in baseball. Eventually, he was able to get the waiver, and he joined the Mariners organization that summer.
He starred for Everett in his pro debut, allowing 2 earned runs in 35 innings while striking out 45 batters. Even as a relief pitcher in the Northwest League, a 0.51 ERA will get you noticed, so the M’s tried him out as a starter in High Desert last year. That didn’t go so well, as he wasn’t able to hold his velocity in the rotation, and his fastball dipped down to 83 at times. Plus, it’s High Desert, so his numbers were pretty mediocre. This year, the M’s shifted him back to the bullpen full time, stuck him in West Tennessee, and have seen him take off.
His fastball is back in the 86-90 range, and while he doesn’t light up radar guns, it has serious sink to it. He’s posting a 56% groundball rate this year, just barely down from his 57% mark he’s put up as a professional. It’s a nasty two-seam fastball that gets a ton of groundballs. His change-up, which was just fringe-average coming out of school, is now a solid offering bordering on a plus pitch, and what he’s done with it this year is remarkable.
Remember, he’s a southpaw with a two-seamer, so he fits the profile of a guy who is going to run a big platoon split and get battered by right-handed hitters. Instead, this is what he’s done against RHBs:
86 batters faced, 19 hits, 1 walk, 22 strikeouts, 54.7% GB%.
That’s the kind of line you expect to see from a side-arming ROOGY. That’s Sean Green with good control. But he’s a lefty, and that’s nothing short of insane. His change-up might just grade out as just a good pitch, but whatever deception he’s getting with his arm action must make it extraordinarily tough on opposite handed hitters. His two-seam fastball and curveball, plus his short-arm delivery, are always going to make him tough on LHBs (career 22% K% against lefties), but his ability to destroy RHBs this year makes him far more interesting. And, he throws strikes, which is a refreshing break from the throw-hard-with-no-command types that populate the team’s bullpen right now.
Hill has always gotten rave reviews for his work ethic and competitiveness, which allowed him to out-pitch his stuff. Well, now that his stuff has gotten back closer to where it was when he was a potential first round pick in college, his pitchability helps even more. The M’s could really use a good left-handed reliever, and Hill has the makings of being an excellent one. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him in Seattle by years end, and if he continues to roll through the minors like he has, I’d bet on him breaking camp with the team next spring.
Welcome to Seattle, Chris Shelton
The Rainiers used Chris Shelton at DH tonight, then pinch hit for him in the 9th inning (h/t Ryan Divish). That’s because they didn’t want him to get hurt in his farewell to Tacoma (he’ll be replaced down there by newly signed Alex Cintron). He’ll join the Mariners roster tomorrow, with Jason Vargas (most likely) getting optioned to Triple-A to open up a roster spot. We talked about this happening the other day – with the team not needing a 5th starter again until July 25th, Vargas can get work in Tacoma while Shelton can take Sweeney’s roster spot and act as Junior’s platoon partner/backup first baseman.
If Shelton comes out of the gate and hits, he could stick on the roster for a while. By adding him to the 40 man, the M’s lose the ability to send him back to Tacoma without putting him through waivers, and there’s a pretty decent chance he’d get claimed. With Sweeney’s back being a persistent problem, and his offense not justifying a roster spot, the M’s aren’t going to want to lose their insurance policy if they don’t have to. If Shelton’s swinging the bat well when Sweeney is eligible to come off the DL on July 21st, don’t be surprised if Mike is asked to take one for the team and keep “rehabbing” for a while.
Game 84, Orioles at Mariners
1:40, Hernandez v Vargas.
HOT LINEUP NEWS
Branyan moves from #2 to #3
Woodward to #2
LOPEZ to #4
Death to Flying Things at #5
…and a rare Balentien appearance in left, and Ichiro hits DH
Best Pitching Performances
We’re big fans of Larry Stone, if you haven’t noticed. He’s even Officially Endorsed. He does great work for the Times, and if you aren’t reading his stuff and his blog, you’re missing out.
That said, Larry, you gotta learn to use Baseball Reference’s immortal Play Index. It’s the greatest thing since Matt Wieters taught everyone how to slice bread. His most recent blog post deals with the best pitching performances in Mariner history, building off of Washburn’s complete game one hitter a couple of nights ago. He ends up putting Washburn’s performance at #7, right behind Felix’s one hitter in Boston.
However, had Larry used the Play Index, he would have found this – every game in Mariner history where the starter posted a Game Score of 85+ (Washburn had an 88). Game Score, for those wondering, is a Bill James creation that gives points to each event along the way in an effort to categorize total performance. 50 is average. Anything over 80 is really good. Getting over 90 is awesome. So, Washburn’s 88 is certainly fantastic.
But not historically fantastic. The Mariners have had 19 different games pitched where the starter had a game score of 90 or higher. 12 of those 19 were by Randy Johnson, naturally. Johnson just dominates the list up and down with so many ridiculously awesome performances.
Washburn’s start the other night is tied for 32nd. Johnson posted a game score of 88 four times, as did Brian Holman in his near perfect game and Gene Nelson in his complete game shutout back in 1982.
Larry gives a lot of credit to limiting baserunners, but not all that much to striking hitters out. So, he probably won’t agree with ranking batters by Game Score, which is fine, because it’s kind of a toy more than a serious analytical stat. But, when you look at that list, and see some of the games that Johnson pitched, it’s hard to argue that Washburn’s performance the other night belongs in the same category.
Game 83, Orioles at Mariners
7:10. Guthrie versus Bedard, who as of press time has still not been scratched.
RF-L Ichiro!
1B-L Branyan
2B-R Lopez
DH-L Griffey
CF-R Gutierrez
LF-L Langerhans
C-R Johnson
3B-R Woodward
SS-R Cedeno
So Gutierrez, who I used to wonder about at #9, is now #5. I’ll take it.
Sweeney to DL
To make room for Erik Bedard on the roster, the M’s placed Mike Sweeney on the DL. That gives them a 13 man pitching staff for tonight. Now, it looks like they’ll option Vargas out after his start tomorrow to bring up a backup first baseman (hello, Chris Shelton) for the Texas series, with Olson moving to the pen. Vargas will get some starts in Tacoma to keep sharp while the team goes to a four man rotation until July 25, as outlined in the post below.
Reason For Optimism
Due to the all-star break and a well timed off day, this is the Mariner rotation for the next three weeks.
Bedard
Vargas
Felix
Morrow
Washburn
Bedard
Off
Off
Off
Washburn
Felix
Bedard
Morrow
Off
Washburn
Felix
Bedard
Morrow
They won’t start Felix in the first game after the break if he pitches in the ASG, so that’s why Washburn is slotted into that spot, if you’re wondering. Still, over the next 14 games, the Mariners are scheduled to get four starts from Bedard, three starts from Felix/Washburn/Morrow, and one from Vargas. You’ll probably see Olson optioned to Triple-A today to make room for Bedard, because the M’s are going to be able to go with a four man rotation for the next few weeks.
This helps in several ways, even beyond the obvious of having better pitchers on the mound more often. The four man rotation will allow them to use Vargas out of the pen this weekend against Texas and in the Cleveland series, which will give the bullpen a lefty and an extra arm, so the concerns about overworking the bullpen will be minimized for the next few weeks. It also gives the M’s the ability to have Olson working in Triple-A as a starter, so he can be ready to step right into the rotation if Bedard or Washburn are traded.
If they can get the bats to keep hitting, this could be a fun couple of weeks.
A Winning Formula
Ridiculously Good Command + Flyball Lefty + Safeco Field + Terrific Outfield Defense = Awesome.
Congratulations, Jarrod. That was one well pitched game.
Congratulations, Death To Flying Things and his two wingmen. You guys rock.
Congratulations, Safeco Field. You might be picky, but at least you know how to reward those you like.