Game 138, Mariners at Rangers
5:05, Feierabend vs McCarthy
Only triple of a season for the cycle
Scraps:
I wonder if anyone’s ever hit for the cycle and only had that one triple the whole season.
Sure, one: Olerud did it, June 16, 2001, his only triple of the year.
Buhner had three (three!) in 1993, when he did it. And Alex/Griffey, they hit triples like crazy.
Signs things are going right
Rich emailed:
I’d like to see maybe a list of things for people to look for that show the M’s making positive progress for 2009 and beyond. I’m not talking about the obvious stuff, but maybe a realistic look forward for some seriously dejected fans.
At the baseball operations level:
Team makes a good hire for their new GM
Yup, this is obvious, but even beyond “they hire a USSM dream candidate” it’s “they hire someone who isn’t a retread/doormat”
Fixes
The GM has a free hand to remake the roster and in a hurry, and gets into it
Organizational changes
New people are brought in to work in problem areas, and they have plans that make sense (“I’ve been thinking, maybe our hitting prospects should hit.”) The team brings in smart people to form the kind of analytical group other teams have.
Organizational philosophical indications
This may come as quickly as this next off-season. Who are they pursuing in free agency, and why? Are they repeating the same mistakes that got them into this hole, or are they making smarter decisions about how they pick pitchers? Are they putting together teams that play better defense? Are they spending money on veteran players that could easily be replaced with much cheaper alternatives? Who are they bringing in on minor league deals this spring?
For instance, the “role” thing — one of our huge, consistent problems in the Bavasi regime was the fixation on roles. “We’re looking for a left-handed designated hitter… there’s only one, let’s spend $5m. What, he sucks?”
The M’s are going to have some holes this off-season that can be solved in a couple ways:
– throwing money at veteran players who are established in those roles
– finding cheaper unlabeled alternatives
– abandoning the role label to do something really interesting.
Wins and efficiency
On a larger level, we should be able to step away from the team and see that they’re getting more for what they’re spending. 100 losses with this payroll should be an everyone’s fired moment. Intelligent spending and team-building will show up in both the team’s standings and in measures like $ spent per win.
Then, at the franchise level:
Team makes ownership group changes
See many, many previous rants about Lincoln and the ownership’s bafflement over getting their butt kicked year after year
Increased honesty
It’d be nice if the team for once didn’t actively lie to everyone about the year’s payroll and things like budgeting. I don’t want to write too much here, I’ll just get angry. Don’t wish too hard for this one. Especially without the previous item.
Increased openness
See here
Or you can just keep reading. We’ll try and keep you posted.
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This post was written as one of the requests by a USSM supporter as part of Thank You Content Week. Join them!
Yes, I’m playing around with the layout
Please do not panic.
And, as always: patches welcome.
Update: a L/R column update is coming.
Beltre WOO!
Through years of inaccurate criticisms and people referring to him as a disappointment, Adrian Beltre has continued to show up and play terrific baseball for his entire tenure as a Mariner.
Congratulations on your cycle, Adrian. Yet another great accomplishment for a guy who simply doesn’t get the credit he deserves.
The most important off-season decision
WoTYC, 4, tgf, by email:
What is the most important single decision/plan the next GM can make/implement to build a better team (long term)? Can be player personnel related, coaching, anything. Kind of general, but I’m sure you’ve thought about this as well.
Generally speaking and more in short-term, they’re going to have to come in and figure out how they can remake the team now, who’s going to be part of the core they rebuild around and who needs to be moved if at all possible. There’s going to be four big groups:
– Value outweighs what anyone will offer (Ichiro, Felix)
– Keep barring overwhelming offer (Beltre)
– Move if at all possible (Washburn)
– No one’s going to bite (Silva, Batista)
If a non-Lee GM comes in, the rumors are going to run amazingly fast as they try and figure out who’ll give them what for who (“Hey, remember when we you called about that AA prospect last season? Sure, and now I’m with the M’s– and do I have a seasoned major-league veteran for you.”)
My prediction is that the single biggest challenge will be what they do to rebuild the middle infield. It’s complicated, thorny, not regarded as a huge problem by many people who follow the team making selling dramatic action tough.
To return to the question, though — long term, the team will need to make some huge philosophical changes in how they do business. They need to change how the organization scouts and values pitchers, so they stop thinking Washburn/Silva types are good buys, they need to do a better job building a team defense. They need to get really smart sabermetric types to offer additional views the team can listen to, and then make sure they’re listened to. My area of expertise — and I’ll be volunteering for this if they hire certain GMs* — is that they absolutely have to build better technological tools to help the team. Other franchises have done amazing jobs putting together useful data stores that help them make scouting decisions, build great scouting reports, and support the work of all the other departments. The M’s need to catch up as fast as they can.
Overall it amounts to having to steer the entire organization into a new, more enlightened present. That’s the most important work facing the new GM, because as long as the M’s are organizationally dim, success will be much harder and come a ever more infrequently.
* I will not be taken up on this
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This post was written as one of the requests by a USSM supporter as part of Thank You Content Week. Join them!
The All-Mariner All-Worst
WoTYC, 3, John Morgan:
An All-Time Worst Team seems appropriate and ripe for comedy.
No problem. Worst Mariner team of all time:
DH: Jose Vidro
C: Kenji Johjima
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez…
Yes it’s your 2008 Seattle Mariners!
The worst part about that — it’s not that far off. Say they finish at 100 losses. Their competition will be:
— the 1978 Darrell Johnson team (56-104)
— the 1980 Darrell Johnson/Maury Wills team (59-103)
— the 1983 Rene Lachemann-led team (60-102)
The Mariners started up in 1977. All of those seasons came within seven years of starting out at a time when expansion teams were totally amazingly screwed in their first years. The Blue Jays did a great job building out of expansion and weren’t hampered by terrible ownership, and it took them six years before they got over .500.
This is staggering: the Bavasi years have returned one of the richest franchises in baseball to a six-year run unequaled since the days when it began, hamstrung by a terrible starting position, no payroll, and inept management.
What’s a year-by-year lineup look like, then? Using the same standards as we’re using in the ongoing All-Mariner All-Time roster:
DH: You’ve got choices. For raw awfulness, Leroy Stanton, 1978: 342 PA, .182/.265/.248. For a little better, what about 1991 Alvin Davis: 528 PA, .221/.299/.336. Ow. Vidro’s a happy medium, with 330 PA .234/.274/.338. I have to take Leroy Stanton.
C: Miguel Olivo 2005. Just thinking about that makes me wince.
1B: Richie Sexson 2007. Awful defense and .205/295/.399
2B: Jose Lopez 2007. Blech defense and .252/.284/.355. You might want Harold Reynolds 1986, or does he get credit for his early-career defense?
SS: Mario Mendoz, 79. .198/.216/.249. Yeeaaaaaaaaaagh.
3B: I want Luis Sojo’s ill D and crappy hitting of 96 (.211/.244/.263), but for more playing time I’m fond of Spiezio 2004, or better yet, 1988 Jim Presley hard at work blocking Edgar Martinez.
LF: Mike Felder, 93. I was excited to have him come over, because I followed the Giants, but .209/.260/.267 in 376 PA. Wowww. For a left fielder.
CF: The forgotten John Moses, 1987: 433 PA, .246/.301/.331 and when was the last time you heard about his stellar glovework?
RF: Al Cowens 1983, 384 PA, .205/.255/.329, or John Hale, 1978, 251 PA, .171/.283/.265 ?
Bench: wooooww. Sojo 96, Fermin 95, uhhh… Olivo as catcher 2005, backing himself up. Outfield, I’ll take Mickey Brantley 89.
Now for the rotation, they have to have put in at least 150 IP as an arbitrary line, and I’m trying not to pick 2008 pitchers.
SP: Joel Pineiro, 2006
SP: Glen Abbott, 1978.
SP: Jim Beattie, 1980. Shudder.
SP: Ken Cloude, 1998.
SP: Bill Swift, 1998.
This is tough. I’m tempted to try and pull BABIP out, but then that’s… add DeLucia 1991 and drop Pineiro? Franklin 2005 over Abbott 1978, perhaps. This is a nausea-inducing rotation no matter what.
Bullpen!
Byron McLaughlin 1980
Lee Gutterman 1986
Bobby Ayala 1998 (!!!)
Norm Charlton 1997
Mac Suzuki 1999
Edwin Nunez 1988
Update: And Maury Wills has to be the manager.
There’s a team that could go 40-122. Things could be worse. But there’s surprisingly little there.
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This post was written as one of the requests by a USSM supporter as part of Thank You Content Week. Join them!
Easy answers to dumb questions
Broadcaster Dave Niehaus has done his job so well for so long that he was the recipient of the 2008 Ford C. Frick Award. Can Rick Rizzs make it two Mariners broadcasters to win the accolade in as many seasons?
No. Dear God no.
September Callups
While the M’s have already promoted most of the Tacoma roster to Seattle this year, it sounds like, despite their earlier claims that they weren’t going to do much when rosters expand, the M’s will be adding both Matt Tuiasosopo and Luis Valbuena to the big league roster, along with the obvious guys (Brandon Morrow, Mark Lowe, Rob Johnson, and Jared Wells). Justin Thomas could possibly get called up as well.
Tui’s had an excellent final three months of the season, growing into his body, adding power, and looking like the prospect the M’s hoped he would develop into when they spent $2 million to sign him as an 18-year-old. He’s not anything close to a finished product, but the M’s are hoping that the .305/.383/.546 mark he’s put up since the all-star break is indicative of real improvement. He won’t play much, but if the team decides to rebuild this winter and trades Beltre, he might actually be in the mix for the third base job next spring.
Valbuena is a bit of an enigma, flashing different skills at different times – he occasionally hits for average and has gap power, but he rarely does both at the same times. He’s not a great defender at second base (that’s being kind, honestly), but he’s a left-handed hitter with a decent approach at the plate. He has almost no star potential, but if he can take some steps forward, he could be a decent role player.
And, for what its worth, Morrow made his final Triple-A start today, and it went well – 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K, 82 pitches. He wasn’t throwing strikes, but he got a lot of outs on balls in play and was able to get through six without having to throw a ton of pitches. He’s still got some significant improvements to make, but there’s no reason to think he’s not one of the five best starting pitchers in the organization heading into 2009.
If you’re waiting out the season, you’re not alone
I noticed today that USSM visits are down almost to pre-season levels.