Prediction contest: Bloomquist’s new contract
Like fellow Mariner-for-life Raul Ibanez, Willie Bloomquist’s contract is up after this season. Make your predictions in a comment, including
* date contract is announced (Mariner press release or press conference, whichever comes first). Last extension was announced November of 2006
* years
* salary only — don’t worry about signing bonuses, incentives, or anything
Speaking of incentives, fun fact about Willie’s last contract, from CoT:
award bonuses: $0.15M for MVP, $0.1M for WS MVP, $50,000 each for LCS MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, All Star ($25,000 for AS selection)
Rumors and Jones speculation
Nothing’s happened today so far (wooo!). I don’t know what that means. Jones being pulled from winter ball (a fine reminder, btw, that their management of him this season was ridiculous) and particularly the account of his conversation with Bavasi seem to indicate that a Bedard deal was so close the Orioles could ask for Jones to stop playing and have it happen — and then at least that deal fell apart. Of course, I don’t know for sure.
In situations like this, I’ve increasingly become reluctant to speculate on rumors and try and figure out what happened, and when. I don’t know who told who what, and why some sources reported one deal and others another. We have limited information, and sometimes that means you wait.
During last season, I heard repeatedly that Broussard was going to be traded. Three of those times it was enough that I thought about running the rumor, and other times it was “I know Broussard’s business manager, and he’s trying to find Ben a place in New York to stay after he’s traded”-type stuff.
You don’t remember me writing about it because I didn’t write any of it up. And it didn’t happen. After a long stretch of getting burned, from hearing Hargrove was going to get fired to other stuff, I decided to set the bar for writing anything up at, essentially, “trade announced.” It’s just not worth it. If a major media outlet runs something, or the Times/PI mentions talks are ongoing, well, if nothing else it’s a current topic of discussion and potentially worth commenting on it.
I’ve learned though that to some extent people are going to believe weird stuff. I’ve read online that USSM spread rumors that we refuted, that we supported things we opposed, and the other way around. At some point, you have to say “well, I’m trying as best I can” and shrug.
So back to Jones. Churchill‘s reported that he heard a deal would be announced today, and it wasn’t. And yet, I don’t doubt he heard that — and Jones being pulled certainly does seem to point to the team being perilously close to a deal. If all of this means that for whatever reason the team’s stepped back from a huge mistake, I’m happy to accept that.
I’d really like to see some rumors of “talks have broken off” though, maybe with some strong public statements to go with it. Let me know if you see any.
USSM on KJR returns
Not sure what I think about the Erik Bedard rumors? Haven’t heard me profess my love for Adam Jones’ defensive abilities lately? Need to hear someone’s voice crack on the radio as they talk too fast? You’re in luck, because I’m back on the air with the Groz at 2:20 pm this afternoon on KJR.
As always, you can listen live online or just turn your less fancy radio down the dial.
One day at a time
Every day without a deal’s a good one.
Beltre’s last Gold Glove
As msb noted, Rolen’s trade to the Blue Jays means there’s a good chance the seven-time winner’s inertia carries him to another eight, nine, twenty Gold Gloves until he retires or is moved to another position. D’oh.
Mariner of the Day: Bruce Bochte
Bruce Bochte was a Mariner for the 1978-1982 seasons, when the team went a combines 302-453 and generally stunk up the place. Bochte did as much as he could, though:
In 1979, after a unimpressive first year with the team, he led the Mariners in batting average (.316, 10th in the AL, OBP, SLG, extra-base hits (and sacrifice flies and GIDP). He represented the Mariners in the 1979 All-Star game, played at the Kingdome (brand new and spiffy). About 59,000 people went, and in the bottom half of the sixth they started to chant for Bochte to pinch-hit, and Bob Lemon, managing the AL team, obliged, hitting a single off Gaylord Perry to put the AL ahead and bring joy to the heart of already-oppressed Mariner fans.
It was a rare thrill that year: mid-week, the team was frequently drawing only a few thousand fans despite still having that new-team smell.
Bochte had another good season in 1980. Then in 1981 he didn’t hit well in the strike-that canceled over a third of the season (“Year of the Messed-Up Playoffs”). In 1982, he returned to form and let the team in batting average, OBP, hits, and walks — his .380 OBP was ninth in the AL.
At which point he disappeared for a year. Didn’t play at all in 1983. Just walked off. If you don’t believe me, check out his Baseball-Reference card. At the time, he didn’t say anything about it. Baseball Library offers this:
After hitting .297 in ’82, he abruptly retired, explaining, “I was the Mariners’ player rep for three years and became aware of a cold, impersonal attitude on the part of management, and wanted no part of that.”
The quote’s unsourced, though, so I’m not sure how much stock to put in it.
A year later, he signed with the A’s and played there for a few years.
And what’s he doing now? I refer you to this fine Jim Moore article from July 10, 2001:
For the past decade, Bochte has worked at the Center for the Story of the Universe, a research affiliate of the California Institute of Integral Studies in San Francisco, which emphasizes higher education for the mind, body and spirit.
Center for the Story of the Universe site.
He studies cosmology, focusing on the origin and evolutionary dynamics of the universe.
He’s also done work with the Bay Institute, as Moore noted, as well as other Bay-area charities.
But check out his cards. He’s a man of expression.
From this ebay auction:
Then in 1982, you get this, which makes him appear like he’s only got one nostril and is missing half his head:
Or check out this one:
And late in his career with Oakland, this classic pic from his 1987 card:
I love those glasses.
Jones not called home, but may be sitting out, or something
All kinds of places reporting all kinds of things. The truth may be just as confusing as the conflicting rumors at this point, as Shannon Drayer pointed out:
Since speaking to the Mariners I have received an email reply from Adam saying that he is still in Venezuela and, “I don’t know what is going on, but I am just trying to stay cool.” If you know Adam at all, he can’t help but stay cool.
Interesting that he is in Venezuela and not playing. Adam has not played in a game for Lara since January 9, did not even play in a double header on the 10th. While the club may not have called him home, it appears that they have told him not to play.
Could be they are debating shutting him down after a good winter or possibly, something is in the works on the trade front.
So at this point, it appears that many places — the Baltimore Sun, wherever — are reporting that he’s been told to return home, which appears to not be true, from the original now-disputed Venezualean report, but at the very least Jones isn’t playing for reasons we don’t yet know.
2007 Defense through PMR
Leafing through the Probabilistic Model of Range numbers for 2007 (check out the whole list), some things that jumped out at me:
Sexson’s surprisingly not near the bottom at his position.
Raul Ibanez is. He sucks defensively. He’s ahead of Manny Ramirez, Chris Duncan, and Pat Burrell. He’s behind Barry Bonds.
So did Jose Guillen. 5th-worst in the majors. Have fun with that, KC.
Beltre does well.
Ichiro is the second-best in center.
Betancourt’s a little below average.
’08 M’s, Meet the ’07 Blue Jays
Since it’s the topic we can’t get away from, here’s something I thought of in the last few days – if the Mariners make the Erik Bedard deal and have the pitching rotation of Geoff Baker’s dreams, is there a comparable recent team that was built on similar principles?
I think there is, and ironically, it’s the Toronto Blue Jays of 2007. Isn’t symmetry fun?
Seriously, let’s take a look at the concepts. Those in favor of the Bedard deal essentially argue that having Bedard-Felix-Silva-Batista-Washburn is such a good rotation, and that starting pitching is so vital to team success, that the team becomes an instant contender. Two aces, two innings eaters, and no unreliable guys who have no track record to sabotage things? How could this fail?
I present the ’07 Blue Jays.
#1 Starter: Roy Halladay, the definition of an ace. 225 IP, 3.71 ERA.
#2 Starter: A.J. Burnett, inconsistent but sometimes dominating. 165 IP, 3.75 ERA
#3 Starter: Dustin McGowan, electric arm but command problems. 170 IP, 4.08 ERA
#4 Starter: Shaun Marcum, strike throwing innings eater. 159 IP, 4.13 ERA
#5 Starter: Jesse Litsch, good command contact guy. 111 IP, 3.81 ERA.
Toss in a bullpen trio of Jeremy Accardo (2.14 ERA), Scott Downs (2.17 ERA), and Casey Janssen (2.35 ERA), and the Blue Jays pitching staff last year was the prototype for what the pro-Bedard camp wants the Mariners pitching staff to look like. Two dominant guys at the front of the rotation, solid guys at the back end, innings eaters in the middle, and a shutdown bullpen capable of holding leads.
Not surprisingly, the Blue Jays strength in run prevention led to a 4.00 ERA, second in the American League. Since pitching is the name of the game, this strong combination of power arms and depth carried them into the playoffs, right?
Uhh, no. They finished 83-79 with a run differential of +50 runs – solid, but not a real contender, especially not in the American League. Why didn’t they win more games?
Easy – they didn’t score enough runs. Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios were good but not great, and while they got strong supporting performances from Matt Stairs and Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells forgot how to hit again and Lyle Overbay was one of the few first baseman alive as bad as Richie Sexson. The lack of production from several line-up spots killed rallies, and their overall reliance on right handed hitters made them an easy matchup for teams with good right handed pitching.
So, lets see – a line-up with several good but not great hitters, some black holes offensively, and an over reliance on RH bats – where have I seen this kind of offense before? Oh, right, in Safeco Field every night.
Seriously, just run through the comparisons in terms of run production.
Catchers: Zaun and Johjima are basically a push
Corner Infielders: Overbay/Glaus and Sexson/Beltre are about as even as you could get.
Middle Infielders: McDonald/Hill and Betancourt/Lopez are pretty even as hitters.
Outfielders: Stairs/Wells/Rios and Ibanez/Ichiro/random RF is pretty close to a push.
DH: Thomas blows Vidro out of the water.
These offenses are basically the same. You could argue that there are minor differences, but nothing drastic enough to eliminate the comparison.
If the Mariners follow the ’07 Blue Jays formula, they’re very likely to replicate the ’07 Blue Jays results – a decent team that is a big step behind the elite clubs in the American League.
Swapping Adam Jones for Erik Bedard pushes the Mariners towards being Toronto West. And, despite the hyperbole about the amazing transformative powers of having two lights out pitchers at the front of your rotation, the formula fails if the team isn’t good enough overall.
And they’re not – the M’s could have made themselves contenders this winter, but instead, they signed Carlos Silva. Making a disastrous trade for Erik Bedard and replacing Adam Jones with the carcass of Luis Gonzalez and his veteran entitlement wouldn’t make them a contender – it would make them a sad organization hoping for a miracle in lieu of a real plan.
Sigh of relief
We got through another one. I’m always shocked at how many times bad deals like Jones-Bedard stall or fail because of weird sticking points (like Omar’s knees).
“I’d like to trade you my house and everything in it, my brand new Dodge Viper with secret lifetime speeding ticket immunity pass, and $100,000 for that disposable pen you have there.”
“You’ll have to throw in those shoes you’re wearing.”
“What, my shoes? Never! Why, I bought these at Costco and they’ve been adequate for six months!”
“No deal unless I get those shoes!”
“Fine! I’ll just keep all my stuff!”
“You do that!”
May this whole thing fall apart similarly, so that years from now we can laugh about the whole thing.
The big news today is the Indians cut a deal to name Jacobs Field “Progressive Field” like the auto insurance company that once called me at o-dark-thirty in the morning because they didn’t understand the concept of time zones.
As several people emailed me to note, it’s at least incongruous that a company named Progressive will now sponsor the stadium of a team that, while run by a progressive front office, has for a logo Chief Wahoo, by far the most embarrassingly racist of any major sports team in America today.
Wheeee!