No news is good news
Day twenty passes. The M’s sign Chris Reitsma to a minor league deal. Yes, that Chris Reitsma. But a minor league deal is not a bad deal, and the streak continues.
Car shopping
Let’s say I need a car. My commute’s short, so I take the bus or bike to work as much as I can, but in the winter I frequently need to drive in, and then for errands and whatnot. If I made a list of my needs, it’d be “cheap, runs forever, enough headroom, ridiculous gas mileage, safe”.
Off the top of my head, I’d probably look at the Honda Fit, the Nissan Versa, and a Toyota Prius. They would to different degrees fill the need I’m looking for.
But wait. A Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder calls. I’ve never owned an exotic sports car. It gets ridiculous gas mileage, in a different way of course, it’s safe because it’s so uncomfortable and hard to drive it would never leave the driveway except on sunny weekends for leisurely day trips, it has enough head room, in a sense… and it’s only a bit over $200,000. And insuring it is possible, so that’s good, and I won’t have to put up with it for too long because I’ll wreck it or it’ll explode before a couple years have passed.
All I’d have to do is sell my house and all the stuff in it to live in the cheapest apartment I could find with nothing in it. And I’d have to find a new wife.
No problem, though, right? I’m sure there’s a decent apartment out there waiting for me that only costs $1, because there are more apartments than houses, and the market for houses isn’t that bad anyway. And what’s the total population of women out there — there’s a huge number of candidates. And I didn’t need all that stuff in the house anyway. And if there isn’t a $1 apartment, I’ll live in the car. No problem.
You may think I’m crazy to give up all that and go to all this trouble to get myself something so ridiculously overpriced, but look here:
– Five-liter V10 engine
– 520 horsepower
– 0-60 in negative two seconds
– fully retractable soft-top roof that I’ll never use because I’m in Seattle
The market price for that is over $200,000. If it’s that highly valued, it has to be awesome. Therefore buying one has to be a good move.
KOMO Hot Stove Nuggets of Bavasi widsom
MSB has some comments, I understand.
Adam Jones and Erik Bedard, Quantified
Time is not on my side, so I won’t be able to go into as much detail on this as I would like, but with the Bedard rumors picking up steam again, I figured I should put this out there. What follows is my calculations of the value of Adam Jones and Erik Bedard from a win value standpoint. You don’t have to believe that this is the be-all, end-all of analysis, but if you’re serious about having an opinion on this issue that anyone should care about, you at least have to understand what win value analysis is telling you. If the Mariners aren’t looking at this kind of information (and, let’s be honest, they’re not), they’re not doing enough work to figure out if acquiring Erik Bedard at the cost of Adam Jones is a move worth making.
Here’s the basic concept – every player adds a quantifiable amount of wins to the roster above what could be expected of a league minimum, freely available player. Those wins have tangible economic value – the more wins a player generates, the more they should be paid. But players also cost money in terms of salary, and the difference between their win value and their cost is their net value. We all make these kinds of decisions every day – gas costs $3 a gallon, but it gets me to work so that I can earn $100 a day, so buying gas is a viable economic decision if you have to drive to get to your job unless you live really far away.
So, here’s what the numbers say, based on a conservative estimate of Jones’ abilities (I project him as a league average player this year with small, incremental improvements through 2013, his last year under Mariner control) and a very optimistic estimate of Bedard’s abilities (basically, he retains almost all of his 2007 form, then resigns with the Mariners to a 3 year, $60 million contract after 2009). The variables have all been tilted in favor of Bedard, because I like to present something like the best case scenario for the side I don’t agree with, especially when I think the issue is this cut and dried.
All that said, here are the numbers (I’ll try to post the calculations later when I have time to make a table look decent).
Adam Jones, 2008 net value: $8.7 million
Erik Bedard, 2008 net value: $12.5 million
Adam Jones, 2009 net value: $14.0 million
Erik Bedard, 2009 net value: $9.0 million
Adam Jones, 2008-2013 net value: $61.0 million
Erik Bedard, 2008-2013 net value: $33.1 million (assumes 3 year, $60 million extension after ’09)
In terms of value added to the Mariners franchise over the next six years, it’s not even close. Jones blows Bedard out of the water even in a scenario where Bedard is projected to be the significantly better player (I’ve got the total wins added from ’08-’13 at 17 for Jones and 26 for Bedard). Even if you only look at the next two years, Jones is expected to outvalue Bedard $22.75 million to $21.5 million.
Even if Adam Jones was a free agent after 2009, given their respective abilities and salaries, I wouldn’t trade Adam Jones for Erik Bedard straight up. The fact that the Mariners then control Jones from 2010 to 2013 makes this an obviously horrible trade.
I’m all for acquiring Erik Bedard, and I’d give up practically the whole farm system to get him. But Adam Jones is the kind of player that good organizations just don’t trade. He’s one of the most valuable players in the game, and by himself, more valuable to the club than Erik Bedard.
Eighteen days
As rumors of a horrible, horrible Bedard deal swirl.
Seventeen days without a bad move
Good job team! Let’s see how long we can keep this string up!
Read more
Prediction contest: Ibanez’s new contract
I joked that Raul’s comments to the Seattle Times for that Monahan refutation earned him his next deal — and maybe it did! His contract is dangerously close to coming to an end after this season, and the team is probably already talking to him about returning.
So — leave a comment with your guess. Include:
1. Years
2. Contract value (salary only)
3. Date the extension will be officially announced by the Mariners (press release or press conference, either way)
Last one was a 2y, $11m contract announced in March of 06, the last year of his previous deal.
Winner gets a lovely prize, all three answers required to be eligible.
Seattle Times on the Monahan thing
Me, when the Shane Monahan “the 98-99 M’s were rife with steroids” story broke:
It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any further investigation of this — I don’t expect the local papers to go after the story, since they’re dependent on the team’s goodwill for coverage
Boy, was that dumb of me. The Times ran a Baker/Stone piece on Sunday. Featuring Raul Ibanez!
I just wanted to call myself out for being a dork.
Shane Monahan used steroids
Steroids ran through those hockey bloodlines? What? I thought he was the essence of scrappy leadership!
“Clubhouse culture led ex-Mariner to steroids and greenies”
Monahan says he began taking steroids late in the 1998 season.
“I saw what kind of money it is going to get you,” he says. “I had great minor league seasons, but I wanted to stay in the big leagues. I know my teammates and I know guys on other teams are doing it, and they’re hitting home runs left and right. And I’m sitting there going, ‘All right, well, what I’m going to do?’
Oh, it gets better.
During his brief time in Seattle, Monahan came to believe steroid use was widespread in the Mariners’ clubhouse, although he refuses to identify those he suspects were using.
So, 98-99. I wonder how widespread widespread is. The Franklin connection’s tough to make in 99 — I’d have to go back through the transaction logs, but I don’t think there’s a huge overlap. Segui’s name has been all over the place, as you know.
I don’t know. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any further investigation of this — I don’t expect the local papers to go after the story, since they’re dependent on the team’s goodwill for coverage. Heck, Blowers was on that 99 team, and now he’s in the broadcast booth. He’s not going to be spilling.
This makes me sad.
Brandon Morrow, Starting Pitcher
If there has been one theme to the Mariners public statements in the last week, it seems to be that they’re content to go into the season with Brandon Morrow penciled in as the team’s #5 starter. As John McLaren told John Hickey today, “”I am very high on Brandon Morrow.”
The Mariners have essentially made it known that they’re not really interested in acquiring a one year stopgap, as they aren’t impressed by guys like Bartolo Colon and expect that Morrow could offer them similar performance if needed. They’re still likely to pursue deals for a pitcher like Erik Bedard, but failing that, it’s certainly realistic to believe that the team could head to Peoria with Morrow as a member of the team’s rotation.
Personally, I think that’s borderline insane.
The difference between pitching out of the bullpen and starting a game couldn’t be any larger. Besides the fact that both involve hurling a baseball towards home plate, they have almost nothing in common. The skills needed to start are vastly different than the skills needed to relieve, and success out of the ‘pen means basically nothing when trying to figure out if a pitcher is quailfied to take a spot in the rotation.
When being used as a reliever, weaknesses can be easily minimized by managerial usage patterns, allowing players with one unique skill to be used only when that skill is the most likely to be effective. Need a groundball against a right-hander? Go with Sean Green. Need a strikeout against a lefty? George Sherrill says hello. Runner at third, one out, tie game, and you badly need a strikeout, while a walk just isn’t a big deal? Brandon Morrow’s skillset was made for that situation. Two walks and a strikeout and he’s out of the inning without the run scoring, which makes for a successful outing.
However, a successful start is wildly different than a successful relief appearance, and they require totally different skills. Essentially, to be a good major league starting pitcher, you have to be able to do four of the following things:
Command your fastball
Change speeds
Throw an outpitch with significant movement
Have pitches that tail away from both LH and RH hitters
Pitch unpredictably
If you can only do three of those, you can still be a decently effective backend starter, but to be an above average contributor, you better be able to do four of them. The all-star starters do all five.
Relievers can succeed by doing just one of those things well. Sean Green, for instance, doesn’t command his fastball very well, doesn’t change speeds, has nothing to throw left-handers, and is one of the most predictable pitchers in the majors. The only thing he does on that list is throw an outpitch with significant movement – his diving sinker is enough to help him dominate right-handed hitters, and the Mariners are able to use his one skill in situations where it’s exactly what is required, giving him good opportunities to succeed.
So, of that list, what can we say that Brandon Morrow is capable of doing right now?
Command his fastball?
Certainly not. Morrow, while pitching at max effort coming out of the ‘pen last year, essentially had no idea where his fastball was going most of the time. Assuming he doesn’t throw at 100% effort on every pitch during his move to being a starter, we can assume that his command will improve, but there’s no reason to think that it will go from being horrible to above average in one winter. It will be a success if his command isn’t a problem, but there’s just no reason to think that it will be a strength in 2008.
Change speeds?
Nope. Morrow essentially features a fastball, a slider, and a split-finger. Coming out of the bullpen, these ranged from between 86 and 96 MPH on average. We’ll knock a couple MPH off for the move to a starter, but throwing an 83 MPH splitter and a 93 MPH fastball does not count as changing speeds. Everything he throws would be considered a power pitch.
Throw an outpitch with significant movement
Morrow’s fastball was certainly an outpitch last year. His velocity and movement made it extremely tough for right-handers to pick up, and he was able to just throw the ball past hitters with some consistency, even when they knew it was coming. As a starter, he’ll lose some of that velocity, but the fastball should still be an outpitch for him when he needs it. We’ll give him this one.
Have pitches that tail away from both LH and RH hitters
This one is often overlooked when talking about reliever to rotation conversions, and it’s a pretty big deal. Much like we talked about with Carlos Silva last week, a key to being able to get through 6-7 innings with regularity is to have a pitch that keeps opposite handed hitters off balance. For most starters, this is either the curve ball or change-up. Fastballs and sliders tend to bore in on opposite handed hitters, and when they aren’t located perfectly, they get yanked over the fence for a home run. Having a pitch with tailing movement keeps hitters from being able to just setup to pull every pitch you throw them.
Morrow simply doesn’t have anything resembling a pitch that will keep left-handed hitters off balance. His slider and splitter are so similar that they can easily be mistaken for one another, and his fastball has typical movement in towards a left-handed batter. Like almost every other pitcher with these pitches and no curveball or change-up, he struggled badly against lefties last year; .287/.437/.411 with 27 walks and 22 strikeouts in 122 plate appearances. And keep in mind, that was with an ability to selectively lift him against tough lefties in high leverage situations, so those numbers are artificially deflated by removing many of the more challenging opportunities a starting pitcher would have to face. George Sherrill’s not coming in to get David Ortiz out in the third inning.
Pitch unpredictably
If we had done this one at midseason last year, it would have been a vehement no. In the first half of the year, Morrow threw almost nothing but fastballs. He just came in, chucked the ball as hard as he could, and sat down. In the second half, however, he started mixing in his slider/splitter, and became somewhat less predictable. Given the move to the rotation, you have to think that he’ll continue to pitch more like he did in the second half, so we’ll give him a little credit for this – however, we’ve never seen Morrow have to face batters multiple times in a game, so we really have no idea how well he’ll adjust to major league hitters. This is really a big question mark.
Okay, so, of the five skills needed to succeed as a starting pitcher, we can say that Morrow has one (probably, if the velocity loss doesn’t have more of an effect than assumed) and might have another one (but we won’t know for sure until after the season starts). He definitely does not have the other three.
If you can find me a pitcher that is succeeding in a major league rotation with no more than 1 1/2 of the above skills, I’ll wear an I Heart John McLaren shirt on opening day next year.
McLaren can be high on Brandon Morrow if he wants to. The Mariners can believe in Morrow’s talent all they want, and they can talk themselves into believing that his 4.00 ERA out of the pen last year means that he’s capable of pitching well in the rotation in 2008. However, if we look at what Brandon Morrow can actually do, it becomes pretty clear that this is a guy who just didn’t possess the skills to pitch in a major league rotation in 2007. If you think a few starts against Double-A quality hitters in Venezuela this winter is enough for him to develop the necessary skills, well, then you have enough faith to toss Mt. Rainier into the sea.
The Mariners fancy themselves as a contender next year. There’s not a contender in baseball going into 2008 with a guy as woefully unprepared for a starting rotation job as Brandon Morrow.